Impact Of Climate Change On Mauritius Environmental Sciences Essay

Mauritius is a small island in the Indian Ocean, which forms part of the Mascarene Islands. It is very famous as a beautiful tourist destination. The local climate is tropical, modified by southeast trade winds; there is a warm, dry winter from the month of May to November and a hot, wet, and humid summer from November to May. There are Anti-cyclones which affect the country during May to September and Cyclones affect the country during November to April. Today, the tourism industry is the first pillar of the Mauritian economy. In brief, Mauritius had about 18,000 visitors in 1970. Between 1985 and 2000 the size of its tourism sector, measured by the increase in tourist arrivals, grew by approximately 340%. Tourist arrivals in 2004 were almost 720,000. Tourist arrivals kept increasing every year, in years 2009 and 2010 we noticed a decrease in tourists arrivals due to the World financial crisis, H1N1, price and other factors. The Tourism industry is developing very rapidly and the government is expecting 2 million tourists in year 2015. The tourism created 30,000 full time job equivalents in 2000 and is creating more direct and indirect jobs with new hotels, luxury villas and tourist attractions.

According to forecasts Mauritius is expecting 920, 000 tourists in 2010 which represents an increase of 5.6 percent over the figure of 871, 356 in 2009. Tourist arrivals are forecast to be around 950,000, representing an increase of 3.3 percent over 2010 (Central Statistic Office). According to the Bank of Mauritius, tourism receipts for 2011 should be about 41 billion, representing an increase of 5.1 percent over 2010.

Climate Change

‘Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. It refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity’ (IPCC, 2007).

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Climate change is mainly caused by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere, fossil fuels, deforestation, methane, pollution, waste of energies and by other factors. Climate change has several negative impacts such as a rise in temperature, rise in sea level, beach erosion, floods, storm surge, droughts, sun burn, melting of glaciers, extinction of species, and among others. Climate scientists are very certain that the Earth’s climate will change at an unprecedented rate over the 21st century (Houghton et al., 2001). Researches which were made on climate change mention that Global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70% between year 1970 and 2004. The Global mean sea level is likely to rise by 15 to 95 centimetres by 2100. Global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 – 1°C over the last 100 years. The years at the end of the nineties were the warmest over the last centuries; hence global temperature will increase in the future.

All the above mentioned impacts represent a threat to the tourism industry and other sub industries.

Mauritius and Climate Change

The impacts of climate variability and extreme weather events are becoming a concern to the Republic of Mauritius. Though the GHG emission of Mauritius is insignificant, warming of the climate and its effects on the natural and ecological system are inevitable and already obvious. Analyses of temperature recorded at Mauritius and its outer islands show a distinct warming trend. Average temperature at all stations is increasing at the rate of 0.15 ËšC per decade and has risen by 0.74 – 1.2 ËšC when compared to the 1961-90 long term mean. At some urban stations the temperature has risen by even greater amounts. Sea levels in the southwest Indian Ocean based on reconstructed tide gauge data and Topex/Poseiden altimeter for the period 1950-2001 shows a rise of around 1.5 mm/yr at Port Louis which is the capital city of Mauritius (Church, et al., 2006). Analysis of Port Louis data for the period 1987-2007 gives a mean rise of 2.1 mm/yr for the last 10 years. Warming of the atmosphere has also impacted the hydrologic cycle over the southwest Indian Ocean. Long-term time series of rainfall amount over the past century (1905 to 2007) show a falling trend in annual rainfall over Mauritius. In fact the average rate of decrease per decade is around 57 mm. The overall decrease during the last ten years is about 8% when compared to the 1950s. There are other impacts which have been observed concerning climate in Mauritius, there is a lengthening of the intermediate dry season, the period of winter and summer has changed compared to previous years. There is a shift in the start of the summer rains which cause a problem to the increasing demand of water by sectors such as agriculture, tourism, industrial and domestic. Hence the number of consecutive dry days is increasing and the number of rainy days is decreasing. Even though there is a decrease in the number of rainy days, heavy rain falls leading to floods is being observed during the summer months of February and March.

The concept of sustainable island is clearly defined by the ‘Maurice Ile Durable’ programme which was presented in the parliament in June 2008. Since then, both public and private sector organisations are putting effort to develop in a sustainable way. As the tourism industry in vulnerable to climate change, hotels and other tourism businesses are trying to implement new strategies in order to mitigate climate change.

Mauritius is known for its 3 ‘s’, that is the Sun, Sea and Sand. It is a great concern for the stakeholders of the tourism industry in order to preserve the 3 ‘s’.

Why this research?

The world is facing a major challenge. Climate change has increased the frequency,

intensity and severity of disasters such as floods, droughts, landslides, famine, windstorms, and epidemics (Oxfam, 2008, AU, 2005). We cannot keep on using fossil fuels the way we do today. Scientists have laid out the risks we face and it has become clearer than ever that now is the time to take serious action on climate change. If we do not act today, the opportunity will not only slip out of our hands but it will also become much more costly to carry out the necessary low-carbon transition in the future.

It is important for Mauritius to start acting now for the future generations, as Mauritius is dependent on the Tourism industry it is clear that both private and public organizations must cater for the landscape, environment, cultures, traditions, heritages and attractions to encourage tourists to keep choosing Mauritius as their holiday destination.

What impact will climate change have on tourism? This can be through two means: directly through the changed climate and indirectly through the environmental changes brought about by climate change. In both cases, these impacts will occur at the origin country or region and at the destination country.

This study is going to see the perception of tourism professionals on climate change, their knowledge on climate change, and their mitigation and adaptation measures. Moreover this study is going to conclude about how can climate change affects the tourism industry of Mauritius, and finally draw recommendations on how to reduce a change in climate and reduce impacts on the environment. As a result we will be able to develop in a more sustainable way without harming the nature of our island.

Aims and Objectives of the study

This study is designed to see the level of knowledge of tourism professionals concerning climate change and to what extent those managers think that their business is vulnerable to climate change. Moreover the questionnaire is going to collect data such as the perception of managers about the adaptation measures and about the threats that climate change represent to Mauritius.

Purpose of this study

The purpose of this project is to establish sufficient knowledge of climate change related changes in the research area to motivate the stakeholders to act now for the sustainability of the tourism industry of Mauritius. Thus it builds a bridge from scientific research activity to practical action. A fundamental assumption motivating this research is that with a joint, planned and coordinated commitment from the industry, the adverse social, environment and economic effects of these changes could be mitigated and rather turned positive.

Methodology

To our knowledge, this study is going to see the knowledge and actions of managers in the tourism industry concerning Climate Change. A sample of Tourism Managers was used for this study. The total survey sample consists of 30 managers, which were selected at random, in hotels, travel agencies, airlines, tourist attractions sites, diving centres and among others. A pre-test of the survey instrument was conducted and slight modifications were made to improve the clarity of some questions. The survey was conducted in English.

Literature review

There are a variety of potential impacts of climate change. A number of reviews have investigated these effects, including the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), 2001; Bigio, 2003; McEvoy, 2007; Wilby, 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 2007b; and Huq et al, 2007, and generally identify the most important effects of climate change as:

Effects of sea level rise on coastal regions (including the effects of storm surges);

Effects on health (heat and cold related mortality, food and water borne disease, vector borne disease) arising from higher average temperatures and/or extreme events;

Infrastructure damage from extremes (wind storms and including storm surges, floods from heavy precipitation events, heat extremes, droughts);

Effects on tourism, and cultural heritage;

Effects on urban biodiversity;

Effects on energy use (heating and cooling, energy for water);

Effects on water availability and resources;

Ancillary effects on air pollution.

The IPCC TAR (2001) provided a comprehensive review of the physical climate impacts on

cities, using the evidence available at that time. It concluded that:

“Climate change is more likely to have important impacts on the development of settlements in resource-dependent regions or coastal or riverine locationsU. Most of the concerns were of possible negative impacts on development (e.g., on the comparative advantage of a settlement for economic growth compared with other locations), although impacts on some areas were considered likely to be positive.”

The recently published IPCC 4th Assessment WG II Report (Parry et al [IPCC], 2007d and Chapter 7 on industry, settlements and society Wilbanks, et al 2007) provides an update, based on more recent evidence, but reinforces the earlier findings. Additionally, it addresses vulnerability more explicitly, places climate change directly in the context of socio-economic change and recognises the potential for adaptation. The WG2 summary for policy makers (IPCC, 2007b) concludes that

“Costs and benefits of climate change for industry, settlement, and society will vary widely by

location and scale. In the aggregate, however, net effects will tend to be more negative the larger the change in climate.” And

“Where extreme weather events become more intense and/or more frequent, the economic and social costs of those events will increase, and these increases will be substantial in the areas most directly affected. Climate change impacts spread from directly impacted areas and sectors to other areas and sectors through extensive and complex linkages”

Although numerous studies have focused on public or tourists’ attitudes towards climate change (see Henry, 2000; Becken, 2004 and 2007; Norgaard, 2006; Gössling et al., 2006; Gössling and Peeters, 2007), tourism managers’ perceptions and their strategies have been under-researched thus far. Becken (2004) found that, overall, tourism experts – mostly academics – were better informed about the effects of climate change than tourists. A previous study on tourism professionals’ attitudes towards climate change at the ITB Fair in Berlin (Lund-Durlacher et al., 2007) revealed that there was a high awareness of climate change among tourism professionals and strong impacts on tourism were expected. On the other hand, tourism’s contribution to that problem was seen as only moderate. When asked about the specific causes and suitable mitigation strategies, it turned out that many of those surveyed had only limited and sometimes inaccurate knowledge. The study showed that the tourism sector is aware of the challenge posed by climate change. Around 90 % of the interviewees believe that tourism will be affected by climate change. Yet there are few constructive ideas as to what could be done about it. When asked about responses to climate change, 34 % have no answer, and 56 % did not respond when asked if they had already developed adaptive strategies in their own area of business (Lund-Durlacher et al., 2007).

Perhaps the tourism industry is ambivalent about adaptation to climate change, because the question of adapting tourism to climate change is ambivalent in itself.

On the other hand, it is also evident that the tourism industry does not make any indispensable contribution to humanity’s survival. Hence, in the light of the man-made problem of climate change the tourist industry comes under increased pressure to account for its ecological consequences. Several studies have pointed out that tourism is a source of negative ecological impact (Buttler, 1991, Gössling, 1999, 2000, Gössling et al., 2003, 2005, Neto, 2003, Shah et al., 2002, Welford et al., 1999). Tourism accounts for approximately 5 per cent of the total CO2 emissions (Davos Declaration, 2007). Especially air travel is detrimental to the global climate, since planes emit mostly in strata of the atmosphere most vulnerable to pollution (Gössling, 2000).

Previous investigation on perceptions of climate change had indicated that public consciousness of the issue is high (Defra, 2006) with the great majority in 2005 believing that the world’s climate is altering and that action should be taken against it (Poortinga et al, 2006).

A research was made from January to march 2010 on ‘Public Perceptions of Climate Change and Energy Futures in Britain’ (Alexa Spence, Dan Venables, Nick Pidgeon, Wouter Pourtinga and Christina Demski, 2010) The main aim of that research was to investigate how public views in relation to climate change have changed since the major survey conducted by the research team in 2005, (Poortinga, Pidgeon and Lorenzoni, 2006). The results showed that although the majority of respondents believe that climate change is happening, levels of concern have fallen since 2005, and less than one-third of the population currently consider it to be a purely man-made phenomenon. However most people consider that it is their responsibility to take action against climate change, and that they personally can help to make a difference. In addition, most people say they would be willing to pay more for renewable energy and for projects designed to tackle climate change.

Another research was carried out in Europe looking at ‘Europeans’ Attitude towards Climate Change’ (EUROBAROMETER, 2008). The respondents were invited to give their opinion on a number of statements linked to the problem of climate change. Their attitudes can be summarised as follows: the issue of climate change is serious but the process is not unstoppable.

Nearly two-thirds of Europeans (65%) do not think that the seriousness of climate change has been exaggerated, but they are nevertheless predominantly optimistic and widely disagree (60%) with the statement that the process of climate change is unstoppable.

However, just under a third of Europeans (31%) are rather pessimistic and believe that climate change is an unstoppable process. Around a quarter (26%) think that the seriousness of climate change has been exaggerated.

According to a wide majority of Europeans (70%), alternative fuels should be used to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 56% believe that fighting climate change can have a positive effect on the European economy.

As far as the causes of climate change are concerned, a majority of citizens (55%) disagree with the statement that CO2 emissions have only a marginal impact on climate change. It is however noteworthy that a relatively high proportion of respondents have no opinion on these last two matters (20% and 15% respectively).

Turning to citizens’ personal contribution to the fight against climate change, we see that a clear majority (61%) confirm that they have taken some kind of action in this cause.

Scientists rarely cooperate directly with tourism managers. Studies that use transdisciplinary approaches to tourism are based solely on climate models (see for the case of Switzerland Müller, 2007). There is a lack of different disciplines working on the successful implementation of adaptation strategies. The anticipatory adaptation to extreme weather events and expected climate change is an important aspect of sustainable development in the tourism sector, as it can change the patterns of traveller flow and create a new demand for products of the either regular or new tourists. A strategically oriented tourism policy and business is therefore challenged to integrate climate change into their decision-making processes, in order to minimize socio-economic risks and take advantage of new opportunities.

Individual activities made by single players are not sufficient enough to develop adjusted infrastructure and facilities for tourism. Besides the competition between tourism players and an innovation of products for a sustainable development in destinations, there is a need for learning cooperation processes. Current tourism-based analyses stress the importance of collective learning for the future of tourism destinations (Saretzi et al., 2002). Social and scientific complexity of adaptation strategies (diversity of partners, correlations of impacts, uncertainty of future trends) are to be considered for cooperation processes in tourism. To achieve this collaboration, a link between tourism as well as climatic knowledge and operating experience, concerns and perspectives is needed. In order to stimulate social learning to allow proactive action under uncertainty, scientists and players have to be involved into a transdisciplinary research, design and development process.

Both the tourism industry and researchers have identified a threat to tourism resulting from climate change, especially in alpine areas, small island states, and developing countries (World Tourism Organisation, 2003). Climate change is also likely to affect global tourist flows as a result of the changing attractiveness of both destinations and countries of origin (Hamilton et al., 2005).

The factor of seasonality is also a component of the tourism industry. Seasonality can be influenced by climatic changes in the future. To support this fact, a research was made in Canada, the study examined the relationship between climate and visitation in order to understand the potential impact of climate change on the volume of visits and seasonal pattern of tourism in Canada’s national parks. Results indicated that Canada’s national parks could experience an increase in visitors under climate change due to a lengthened and improved warm-weather tourism season. In the 2020s, overall visitation levels were projected to increase 6% to 8%, with a number of parks projected to experience larger increases (+12% to 30%). The largest increase in visitation occurs during the spring and fall months. Visitation is projected to increase between 9% and 29% system-wide in the 2050s and between 10% and 41% in the 2080s. As a result this shows a positive impact on certain attractions which will receive an increasing number of visitors in the future. This may apply to Mauritius, noting that there can be an increase in tourist arrivals due to climate change, but this will bring mass tourism, which will definitely cause other negative environmental impacts while injecting more revenue in the Mauritian economy.

Climate can have physical, physiological and psychological effects for visitors to a destination. For example, the air temperature can make the potential activities of visitors to the Caribbean less enjoyable due to the share discomfort of going outdoors. Indeed, Lise and Tol (2002) in an examination of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) group of countries reported that visitors tend to prefer temperatures of around 21°C at their choice of holiday destination and they suggested that global warming could therefore lead to a shift away from some destinations that either become too hot or too cold.

Many tourism activities are dependent on the weather conditions, and as most tourists have a high flexibility to adjust their holiday destinations then it is expected that climate change would be important to the tourism sector. Several studies have shown that climate

significantly influences the tourist behaviour and it is one of the keys for tourists when selecting their travel location and activities (Murphy et al., 2000; de Freitas, 2003; Matzarakis et al., 2004; Tzu-Ping Lin and Andreas Matzarakis).

Although developing countries are not the largest emitters of greenhouse gases, they will be most adversely affected by the changing climate (Pavoola and Adger 2006) and most in need of adequate adaptation strategies (Füssel 2007). Developing countries often have, however, other priorities such as poverty eradication and economic growth than climate change (Mimura et al. 2007). The region to suffer most is predicted to be Africa (Brown et al. 2007) as African countries are dependent on climate-sensitive sectors (agriculture, fisheries, tourism), which are forecasted to face considerable changes in the future (Climate change…2008; Brown et al. 2007; Osman-Elasha 2007). Some predictions depict sea-level rise of 18-59 cm by the year 2100 in Africa (IPCC 2007), which would imply threats to coastal infrastructure, communities and ecosystems.

Small islands states and low-lying coastal areas are especially vulnerable for climate change induced impacts and their adaptive capacity for adaptation measures is relatively low as they are limited by their size and geographical setting (Pelling & Uitto 2001; Nicholls and Lowe 2004; Mimura et al. 2007). The most significant effects of sea-level rise are the long term recession of the shorelines, increasing inundation and flooding, and salt water intrusion. This would result in the direct loss of economically, ecologically and culturally valuable land (Dubi 2000). Although the impacts of climate change itself may not be the largest threat, they become serious threat when coupled with anthropogenic impacts. Non-sustainable resource use and development therefore reduce the adaptive capacity of the natural systems (Dubi 2000).

Furthermore, sea-level rise has specific significance for small islands as coastal zones are often densely populated; furthermore, coastal erosion and natural hazards are predicted to increase in magnitude and number in the future. Moreover, as Ragoonaden (2006) notes, sea-level rise is the far greatest challenge for the small island developing states in the near future.

Multiple actors cause pressures on the coastal and marine environment in island settings when diverse actors utilise the same resources (Vaitoti 2008) and these actions have also significance in relation to climate change impacts. For example, the destruction of coral reefs will reduce coastal protection against storm surges and erosion (Lewsey et al 2004; Middleton 1999); in addition there is a strong correlation between coral reef destruction and climate change due to rising temperatures. An increase in sea water temperature and sea-level coupled with destructive fishing methods adversely affect the growth potential of coral, which will in turn reduce the protective ability (Dubi 2000). In addition, coral reefs cannot keep up with sudden sea-level rise due to their fixed growth pace and rising water temperature can advance coral bleaching (Reading et al. 1995). Moreover, coral reefs acts as a buffer against waves and reduce coastal erosion (Cesar et al. 2000; Ragoonaden 2006) and therefore their role in protecting the shoreline cannot be underestimated.

While the wider climate change debate has until recently mainly focused on mitigation (Burton et al., 2002; Wilbanks, 2003; Nicholls and Lowe, 2004), the sparse research specifically dealing with tourism and climate change has largely concentrated on tourism’s vulnerability and adaptation to climate change (e.g., Elsasser and Buerki, 2002; Scott, 2003; Scott et al., 2003). Both the tourism industry and researchers have identified a threat to tourism resulting from climate change, especially in alpine areas, small island states, and developing countries (World Tourism Organisation, 2003). Climate change is also likely to affect global tourist flows as a result of the changing attractiveness of both destinations and countries of origin (Hamilton et al., 2005). Despite an inherent interest in ‘protecting’ the tourism industry, there is increasing awareness that tourism is an important contributor to climate change through its consumption of fossil fuels and resulting greenhouse gas emissions (Becken, 2002; Go¨ ssling, 2002). The wider literature on climate change now emphasises that neither adaptation nor mitigation should be implemented independently, but that an integrated framework for sustainable development should be envisaged (IPCC, 2001; Nicholls and Lowe, 2004). In the same way, research on climate change and tourism will benefit from taking into account the multiple interactions between climate, tourism, and the wider environment (Dubois, 2003; Viner and Amelung, 2003).