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Inflation and Fiscal Policy in the UAE

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Published: Mon, 12 Mar 2018

Table of Contents (jump to)

1. Inflation in that existing economy then suggested an applicable solutions to cope these statement

2. Evaluate advantage and disadvantages of the current fiscal policy and monetary policy being implemented in the chosen country

3. Find out and explain the effectiveness of various economic growth reforms that were carried out in the past years

4. Examine the effect of the balance of payment on the exchange rates in the chosen country explaining. How the chosen country manages its foreign debt

1. Inflation in that existing economy then suggested an applicable solutions to cope these statement

Thirty years back the UAE was one of the slightest created nations of the world. Today, it has attained a wage level practically identical to that of the industrialized countries. The UAE did not pass through the speculative advancement “organizes” that most created nations appear to have encountered. Rather, its extensive oil incomes have permitted her to jump these stages to the phase of high mass utilization. Monstrous oil incomes have empowered the UAE to alternate way the normally troublesome and long procedure of sparing and capital amassing important for financial improvement. Given a wealth of common asset blessings (oil and gas), the UAE has grasped asset based commercial ventures (RBI) as an advancement procedure, a mechanical technique that is focused around use of characteristic assets. There has been a sending of windfall wage, to a great extent coordinated at a ‘for the last time’ help to the social and investment foundation, which empowered the UAE to attain a critical level of investment advancement inside the exact concise time period of 1973 to 1982, a period of moderately high oil costs (Kandil, & Morsy, 2011). Prior to the disclosure and fare of oil, the economy of the Trucial States (which today structure the UAE) depended predominantly on subsistence farming, itinerant creature cultivation, the concentrating of pearls and the exchange pearls, angling, and marine. The period before the revelation of oil, hence, reflected the nation’s restricted regular assets, and brought about a basic subsistence economy (Kandil, & Morsy, 2011).

Political and Social Stability

Since its shaping in 1971 the UAE has appreciated a political steadiness. The current political structures seem to suit the tribal pop culture of the UAE and the dissemination of immense oil incomes as social and financial base, high compensations, an elevated expectation of social administrations, for example, wellbeing and training has raised the expectation for everyday comforts for UAE nationals and impressively decreased the probability of inward political and social turmoil. It is worth saying that the UAE Government has kept up a generally decent record on human rights since the creation of the state. This thus has pushed political and social strength (Al‐mulali, Sab, & Binti, 2011). The UAE is a dynamic part of numerous provincial and universal affiliations, for example, the Middle Easterner League, the United Nations, the Non-Aligned Movement, the Arab Gulf Cooperation Gathering, and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

Oil and Mineral Resources

The UAE is blessed with incomprehensible stores of oil, both seaward and coastal. Co partnered gas from raw petroleum generation and non-partnered gas is likewise created. Since the early 1970s the UAE’s incredible development has depended to a great extent on the revelation and abuse of oil. The oil and gas commercial ventures are generally overseen and the most recent innovation is persistently tackled to build beneficial productivity. As indicated by the UAE Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, the UAE most extreme reasonable every day limit of oil generation (greatest creation rate that might be managed day by day for one year in current states of misuse) is 2 million barrels a day (Al‐mulali, Sab, & Binti, 2011).

Agricultural Resources

The aggregate zone of area under farming and ranger service constitutes short of what 1.5 for every penny of the aggregate area territory of the UAE. Agribusiness has made just a little commitment to GDP (3.8 for every penny in 1999). There has, notwithstanding, been a reliable and significant expand in the measure of area committed to horticulture and ranger service in the course of recent years as the aftereffect of supported exertions by the UAE Government to advertise farming improvement utilizing the accompanying motivations (Osman, Louis, & Balli, 2009):

  • Agricultural plots are conceded allowed to any UAE national.
  • Land is leveled and arranged mechanically for nothing.
  • Production inputs, for example, seeds, manures, and insect sprays are given at half cost.
  • Water wells are bored free of charge.
  • There is procurement of free specialized administrations, for example, establishment of water pumps (Osman, Louis, & Balli, 2009).

2. Evaluate advantage and disadvantages of the current fiscal policy and monetary policy being implemented in the chosen country

Regardless of the UAE’s pay rates positioning higher than the worldwide normal, supplementary expenses excessively are shooting up. As indicated by Dubai Statistics Center, on the premise of purchaser value information, expansion in Dubai rose to its most elevated amount in the most recent four years in October. Lodging and utility expenses, which represents just about 44 for every penny of purchaser costs, climbed 3.2 for every penny year-on-year and 0.2 for every penny month-on-month individually in October. Despite the fact that sustenance and drink costs climbed by 1.8 for every penny yearly, October costs fell 0.4 for every penny from the past month (Osman, Louis, & Balli, 2009). In a Bayt.com compensation study of UAE experts, discharged not long ago, 28 for every penny of experts said their compensations expanded just hardly while an alternate 28 for every penny reported a moderate build.

Around 19 for every penny of respondents said there was no change. The greater part of experts reviewed ascribed their pay climb to swelling and the climbing average cost for basic items while around 80 for every penny said that climbing rents constituted a significant a piece of their living costs. Be that as it may as business certainty gets in front of the Expo 2020 offer, Dubai’s lopsided climb in compensations in connection with rents could go about as a focused disservice in holding ability at later stages. “It is important that as per the Bayt.com MENA Salary Survey (May 2013), 47 for every penny of UAE respondents accept that their steadfastness is 70 to100 for every penny connected to their compensation, consequently showing that pay is a key driver for corporate faithfulness for a lion’s share,” said Suhail Masri, VP of offers, Bayt.com (al-Awad, 2013). “This general pattern is seen over the Middle East that organizations must start to address; in doing thus, they will have the capacity to help building worker steadfastness and fulfillment, and will have the chance to decrease the amount of representatives looking to change employments inside the one year from now.” Masri said that in spite of the lodging remittance given to UAE workers being the third most astounding in the district, climbing living expenses for occupants are a reason for concern.

3. Find out and explain the effectiveness of various economic growth reforms that were carried out in the past years

Dubai to sustain % GDP growth in 2014

Billions of dollars worth of realty ventures to help economy Dubai’s economy is relied upon to develop around five for every penny not long from now, a comparable pace to 2013, the leader of its detail office said on Monday. Development in the Gulf emirate, the district’s exchange and business center, grabbed firmly a year ago, floated by the possibility of government land ventures worth many billions of dollars. “It is normal that development… will arrive at around five for every penny in 2013,  official chief Arif Obaid Al Muhairi said on the Dubai Statistics the economy developed around 4.5 for every penny in the initial nine months of a year ago, he said. Dubai represents a quarter of yield of the UAE economy, with oil-fueled Abu Dhabi in charge of around 65 for every penny (al-Awad, 2013). The UAE, one of the world’s top oil exporters, has yet to discharge 2013 GDP information.

DH953.2 Billion GDP estimates at current 2013

The Statistics Center-Abu Dhabi (SCAD) affirmed yesterday throughout a question and answer session held at the Abu Dhabi Economic Media Club, the last comes about and budgetary studies for 2012, which registered the GDP for the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, and GDP gauges for 2013 (al-Awad, 2013). The Conference was gone to by Mr. Nasser Dayan, Director of Economic Statistics Department, Dr. Mohammed Al Dhaheri, Director of Field Surveys, Ms. Shamma Al Rumaithi, Director of National Accounts, and Mr. Osama Al Zugbi, Assistant Director of Economic Statistics Department. Mr. Nasser Dayan expressed that the vital comes about and assessments arrived at by SCAD on investment advancements in Abu Dhabi a year ago demonstrated that all financial exercises and divisions, oil and non-oil, accomplished development (Termos, Naufal, & Genc, 2013).

Abu dhabi’s GDP up 5.6% in 2012

In its yearly report for 2012, the Department ascribed the slower development in 2012 to the slight climb in the oil division in both creation and costs contrasted and 2011. It demonstrated Abu Dhabi’s true GDP remained at Dh678 billion in 2012 and said that notwithstanding the loosening development in 2012, Abu Dhabi’s economy kept up its recuperated and came back to its solid pace, exploiting the powerful enhancement methodology received by the emirate’s legislature as of late. The report demonstrated the oil division accomplished a 3.8 for every penny true development in 2012, which was lower than past rates acknowledged by the action throughout 2010 and 2011 (Termos, Naufal, & Genc, 2013).

Interestingly, non-oil exercises reinforce the increases accomplished over the recent years, and transformed into a solid mainstay of budgetary execution in the emirate, it said. Non-oil investment exercises recorded true development of 7.7 for every penny in 2012, contrasted with 6.7 for every penny and 6.1 for every penny in 2011 and 2010 separately. This considered absolutely the commitment of non-oil exercises to the true GDP of the Emirate, which rose to 48 for every penny in 2012 contrasted with 44 for every penny in 2007. A breakdown demonstrated the land division developed by 16.7 for every penny in 2012, as an immediate consequence of the noteworthy recuperation of offers exercises in the land part in the Emirate (Basher, & Elsamadisy, 2012). The assembling division stretched by 9.7 for every penny to a record Dh41.5 billion, the report indicated

Contribution of extractive industries to Abu Dhabi’s GDP amounted to 5% in 2011

The extractive business is the spine of the economy of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, and a standout amongst the most vital parts of the national pay of the emirate, where oil incomes are utilized within development of base tasks, and in addition other monster national commercial enterprises. The commitment of extractive industry to the GDP of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi arrived at 58.5% in 2011, as an aftereffect of high oil costs in world markets, and the expand in creation of oil in Abu Dhabi. OPEC normal oil value rose from Us$77.45 for every barrel in 2010 to Us$107.46 for every barrel in 2011 (Basher, & Elsamadisy, 2012).

Aggregate Fixed Capital Formation: The aggregate altered capital framing in the extractive business movement rose from Dh 7.8 billion in 2006 to Dh 48.8 billion in 2011 at a yearly development rate of 44% on normal throughout the period, while settled capital shaping in the action developed by 11.6% in 2011 (Hamaideh, 2010).

4. Examine the effect of the balance of payment on the exchange rates in the chosen country explaining. How the chosen country manages its foreign debt

Conversion scale administrations can harshly be characterized into three classifications: settled (pegged), adaptable (gliding) and moderate administrations. Before 1970’s, most economies worked under settled conversion standard administration known as the Bretton-Woods framework. Under this framework, nations altered their trade rates against US dollar and the dollar was worth a settled measure of gold. All taking part coinage were certainly pegged to the gold. The framework was broken down following 25 years (1946-1971) yet the arrangement of altered conversion scale remained the favored administration in numerous nations. The fundamental inspiration for keeping trade rates settled is the conviction that a stable swapping scale can encourage exchange and speculation streams between nations by diminishing variances in relative costs and by lessening vulnerability (Hamaideh, 2010). Since 1971, economies have been moving towards adaptable conversion standard administrations, where the estimation of the cash is controlled by the business. In this setting, the residential coin, all else equivalent, devalues when interest for the remote money expands or supply of the outside cash diminishes and acknowledges when interest for the outside coin abatements or supply of the remote coin builds (Hamaideh, 2010).

References

Kandil, M., & Morsy, H. (2011). Determinants of Inflation in GCC.Middle East Development Journal,3(02), 141-158. http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S1793812011000351

Al‐mulali, U., Sab, C., & Binti, C. N. (2011). The impact of oil prices on the real exchange rate of the dirham: a case study of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).OPEC Energy Review,35(4), 384-399. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.17530237.2011.00198.x/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Osman, M. A., Louis, R. J., & Balli, F. (2009). Output gap and inflation nexus: the case of United Arab Emirates.International Journal of Economics and Business Research,1(1), 118-135. http://inderscience.metapress.com/content/h815u130l51p1493/

al-Awad, M. M. (2013). Ex Ante Inflation Rates in the UAE. http://repository.yu.edu.jo/handle/123456789/535773

Termos, A., Naufal, G., & Genc, I. (2013). Remittance outflows and inflation: The case of the GCC countries.Economics Letters,120(1), 45-47. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176513001468

Basher, S. A., & Elsamadisy, E. M. (2012). Country heterogeneity and long‐run determinants of inflation in the Gulf Arab states†.OPEC Energy Review,36(2), 170-203. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1753-0237.2011.00208.x/abstract?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

Hamaideh, M. E. (2010).A Risk Management Strategy To Hedge Projects Against Cost Escalation Caused By Price Inflation(Doctoral dissertation, British University in Dubai). http://bspace.buid.ac.ae/handle/1234/328


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