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How will Artificial Intelligence affect the job industry in the future?
Research Question : To what extent will the advancement of artificial intelligence in the next 50 years affect jobs of varying complexity?
Subject: Computer Science
- Introduction…………………………………………………………….……Page 2
- How jobs are already being affected…………………………………….Page 3
- How more complex jobs are being affected and what jobs will be affected in the next 50 years…………………………………………….Page 10
- How jobs will persevere through advancements in Artificial Intelligence………………………………….……………………….……..Page 15
- Conclusion………………………………………….………………………Page 18
- Bibliography………………………………………………………………..Page 19
The advancement of artificial intelligence in the recent years has left the job industry at risk in many different categories of a workforce. This is because if there is a job that could easily be worked by artificial intelligence that job usually ends up being run by AI. This is because Artificial Intelligence ends up having many benefits that humans do not have and make it superior in some aspects though those advantages have counterbalanced the disadvantages for any AI to actually be used. There are still many jobs that are still run without the use of AI because either AI has not developed to enough to the standard it needs to be to run that job or the job is not possible to replace the jobs with AI, as AI advances more jobs are put at risk of being run by AI . I will be focusing upon how the more complex jobs like law will be affected by the development of artificial intelligence in the next 50 years. Using law as my example because many people think this is a region of work like law will not be affected by the advancements of AI when it actually will and is already be affected. Though this still does not necessarily mean that there will not be areas of law which still remain unaffected by the development of AI in 50 years’ time. This is because that level of AI will realistically not be developed in 50 years also there are still jobs in law that require human characteristics which are thought not be able to be replicated in AI which doesn’t mean they can’t be replicated within AI. There are already jobs in law being affected by the advancements in AI also showing that it is not just something of the future and the replacement of jobs by AI has already begun. In 1950 English Mathematician Alan Turing published a paper entitled “Computing Machinery and Intelligence” which opened the doors to the field that would be called AI. [A short history of AI] . Showing the terms of AI was only created in the period around 1950 and it has only been around for about 70 years. With most of the main development in AI being made in more recent times showing how in a relatively small period of time how much AI developed to taking over jobs already. This shows that in another 50 years with more focus on the development of AI that it could be an entirely different place than it is now being massively more developed than it is now shown by the graphs of the exponential growth curves. [Figure 2]
2. How jobs are already being affected
It’s all good talking about how job industry will be affected in 50 years but to make good predictions we need to look at where advances in Ai have already started to affect the job industry or at least in close years to come.
Figure 1: Artificial Intelligence Market, By End Use, 2016 (%)
Figure 2: Revenues from the artificial intelligence for enterprise applications market worldwide, from 2016 to 2025 (in million U.S. dollars.
[Revenues from the artificial intelligence for enterprise applications market worldwide, f. (2019).]
This diagrams [figure 1][figure 2] shows how much AI has already advanced and I’ll start off by talking about how the developments AI are affecting the job industry then specialize in how this affecting more complex jobs like law. Jobs are already being negatively affected by directly displacing workers from tasks that were previously performing, in what we call Displacement because of new AI. Also they are being affected positively by increasing the demand for labour in other industries or jobs that arise due to automation (productivity effect). [Petropoulos, G. (2018)]. A few examples of Jobs likely to be affected by advances in AI in the next two years and jobs in some cases which are already being affected. Truck drivers are under threat are under threat. There are around 3.5 million truck drivers in the United States at the moment, but if the prediction of Companies like McKinsey including multiple other sources become correct in less than 10 years one-third of all trucks on the road will be able drive themselves around. Otto Motors is a start-up with the company that has Uber supporting them financially and AI professionals that used to work at GOOGLE. It has the “ultimate goal of making all driving done by automation” it is on the road to achieving this with the auto-drive trucks the company has already developed. [Truck Drivers in the USA]
Medical professionals and doctors are under threat Robotic doctors are actively working at the moment and this is very useful as they provide critical additional medical care to an ever growing world population. This helps with the supply of medical professionals struggling to keep up with the ever growing demand. IBM’s Watson is already working with medical associations to help detect and also provide treatment for cancer patients. Robots have also been designed for surgery and diagnostics. Construction workers are under threatSAM (Semi-Automated Mason) is about 2 to 3 times more productive than the average human bricklayer compared to the daily output of human which is around 300 to 500 bricks per day the SAM can output 1200 brick per day. Considering these are the early stages of automation in construction this shows the improvements to come. Bulldozer drivers and Crane Operators should also prepare for intelligent machines to take their place. This AI technology is also already being used and is not just something of the future but it still requires an operator. Salespeople jobs are at risk as customers are relying more and more on shopping online and have. Become dependent at searching based on cost, availability and specifications for any good they wish to obtain. This is causing the Sales Person to become something people no longer use. Technology is making a rapid change so it could be any of the jobs that I am talking about that get replaced by AI. Report writers jobs are at risk though our novelists will probably still have a job in the future, but report and financial writers that interpret information and then write reports about the information jobs are at risk. Machines are currently being taught and can even already produce very readable content. Even though Many jobs that exist now in the society of today that might not exist in the near to come future , there is a high probability because of the loss of jobs due to AI new jobs will be created that do not exist at the moment . Basically none of our grandparents worked as app creators or data scientists.
With the main growth of the use of AI being used for simple tasks in these professions perhaps suggesting the nature of the jobs it is replacing. In more complicated jobs is being introduced into simple work which was expected to be done by AI then the AI will specialize later on in the life cycle like it is has in these professions presented above. Once AI has specialized this enable’s it to take over jobs which were considered to be able to be done by AI before. This can be shown by the example of construction which is already being changed so we are not relying on just predictions anymore. The New AI called SAM is already taking over jobs, being bricklaying as the example of a simple job that can be done by AI. Examples of more complex jobs in construction are crane drivers and bulldozer drivers and now that machines like the SAM are taking over the more simple jobs this causes there to be a demand for more complex AI’s in construction. This is because there is no longer a need for simple AI because it already exists and making new AI will be more profitable for companies involved in AI production because there is more demand for this. Looking at the pattern which has emerged within the introduction of AI to other professions this pattern will probably apply to jobs in law. Though this is only a guideline for how AI introduction to jobs in law might behave because although these jobs are similar in the fact they can be taken over AI they are fundamentally different jobs from each other and the jobs in law. But in the recent introduction of AI to law, only simple jobs will be affected because there is simply not enough time or knowledge to develop complex AI for most jobs now. Meaning not many jobs are actually going to be affected or are being affected by AI in the current times.
Now that I have talked about how other simple jobs being replaced than I will talk about more complicated jobs like law, that in a few years will be affected majorly. The two professions which link directly to the law here and are already being affected by AI are Accountants are under threatbalance sheets, Crunching numbers , inventory tracking, profit and loss evaluations, accounts payable and receivable —These task can all be performed by Artificial Intelligence, and this is normally done beter than a human can perform the task. There is expected significant growth in robo-accouting in the near to come future. Legal support staff are under threatfigures from the [Deloitte Insight report] show that 39% of jobs within the legal sector could stand to be run by AI in 2020. Looking over documents and locating support evidence that is relevant for legal cases are tasks that artificial Intelligence is well suited to do. At the moment, the AI infiltration is reserved for electronic discovery, due diligence and contract review, but there is more expected to come in the near future. Financial analysts’ jobs are also at risk because AI financial analysis is biter than a human as it is able to spot trends faster and more accurately. Now with quite a lot of these jobs tying into law in some way now, we can see why it was a good idea to look at them and to see the trends which are occurring now and will probably start occurring similarly in the future to different professions such as law [Marr, B. (2018)].
Figure 3: industrial robots per 1,000 workers in the US and Europe, 1993-2007
[Voxeu.org. (2019). ]
3. How more complex jobs are being affected and what jobs will be affected in the next 50 years
I will now be addressing how specifically jobs in law and complex jobs that will be affected in the to come future within a 20 – 50 year time period. This involves all the jobs which I have previously talked about but also includes some more as AI develops over time it is able to take place in more and more professions. Finally, I will be addressing the research that is being done into developing AI into performing more complex tasks within the future. The characteristics of AI at the moment are such that they are used to perform manual tasks which are repetitive and do not require much thought process. ‘ Telemarketing is an example of a job which is highly routine and repetitive according to [Frey, C. (2018).] report it has a 99% probability of AI taking over the jobs in telemarketing ( which is a prediction so you can never be 100% that it is right); The increase in the annoying robo-calls are an example of automation already occurring. ‘Tax preparation, which involves systematically processing large amounts of predictable data, also faces a 99% chance of being automated. Indeed, technology has already started doing our taxes: H&R Block, one of America’s largest tax preparation providers, is now using Watson, IBM’s artificial intelligence platform. Robots will also take over the more repetitive tasks in professions such as law, with paralegals and legal assistants facing a 94% probability of having their jobs computerized. According to a recent report by Deloitte, more than 100,000 jobs in the legal sector have a high chance of being automated in the next 20 years.’ [Frey, C. (2018).] [Winick, E. (2018).]
McKinsey the U.S. Consultancy organization estimates that 22 % of a lawyer’s job and 35 % of a law clerk’s job can be done by Artificial Intelligence, which shows while humanity as a whole is not at risk of losing their jobs, [Sneader, K. (2018)] notice how in many articles when percentages and figures are mentioned for 1 statistic they are generally different showing that none of the estimates are ever 100% truth and that everyone disagrees showing no one can fully predict what is going to happen) major business and career adjustments are not far away In some cases, they have already started happening. At the moment, AI-powered document discovery utilities have had the biggest impact when applied. The training of the system on millions of case files, existing documentation, and legal briefs. A machine-learning algorithm can learn to show needed sources to a lawyer when crafting a case. Workers used to have to put in a lot of effort to find relevant sources so this program will and has changed jobs but this means para – legals who were the ones doing the job before become rendered useless. As their para – legals responsibilities are rapidly done by machines, paralegals must find ways to work alongside AI, or they will probably not be a thing in the near future. ‘COIN is a software which can in seconds perform document review tasks that took legal aides 360,000 hours. People fresh out of law school won’t be spared the impact of automation either. Document-based grunt work is typically a key training ground for first-year associate lawyers, and AI-based products are already stepping in.’ [AI in Law and Legal Practice. (2018)]
Cause mine is tech company within India that is being developed and it builds on document discovery software with what it calls CaseIQ. . The other tech start-ups with AI at their company have been gaining attraction as well. Overall funding for AI has gone upwards with the overall funds increased by 43 % in the first 3 quarters of 2018 in comparison to the same time last year according to what report by the CB insights research firm says. When the funding has gone for AI there has generally always been a positive snowball effect with AI as well showing how the rapid development of AI in the future is helped by funding. Law schools that have recognized the trend have begun the adaptation process new programs have been created already to teach net generation lawyers how they should use platforms and speak intellectually to the builders of them seeing the future development as a new threat. For example, Harvard at the moment offers courses in legal innovation and programming for lawyers. Recent graduates from law school now also have the chance to use electronic discovery software while at the University of Florida. This is another example of that software is quite effective and drastically reduces the time spent executing a document review task generally given to entry-level associates at larger national firms. There are still hurdles to further adoption of AI in the legal profession. There also is the matter of fact that people are saying AI does not have some human characteristics to make it take over some jobs. Though this is true AI also has characteristics that humans do not have for example they are no biased. So are increasingly being used in courtrooms and it is predicted that courtrooms will be nearly fully automated in the near future. ‘ “Adam Ziegler, the managing director of the Harvard Law School Library Innovation Lab. “I think there will be a lot more experimentation and the progress will accelerate,”. “It’s really hard to build a smart interface if you can’t get to the basic data. Although lawyers are not known for their fast uptake of technology, Ziegler anticipates interest. “I expect that clients’ knowing that technology can perform many of the repetitive tasks will [make them] increasingly unwilling for lawyers to do that work,” Ziegler says. “Why would you pay for a junior associate to do the work that technology could do faster?”’ [Winick, E. (2018)]. This shows that law will still be heavily under heavy attack from AI although the loss of a lot more simple jobs in law this does not necessarily mean those people will remain unemployed as they will probably be displaced to a different area in the law. But from the evidence more and more complicated AI is being developed to fill in the lower tier jobs in law and is developing upwards. Considering how much progress how as already been made at a relatively early stage in the use of AI the possibilities of it developing to take over high their jobs in the law industry is highly possible.
Figure 4: A graph showing the exponential growth of computers
4. How jobs will persevere through advancements in Artificial Intelligence
In this segment of the Essay I will be talking about the jobs which will persevere furthermore following the idea of Law and if so how long for. Mainly talking about reasons for why they will preserve and the limitations of AI more than naming specific jobs. I will also be addressing the future projections for AI’s progress and whether they are actually that realistic considering the rate of AI’s current growth and the factual evidence and what this can tell us about the preservation of some jobs. The characteristics of jobs or job divisions which allow them to not be taken over by AI can always change as AI develops over time but at the moment they are. Strategy Technological management, installation, and upkeep. A job that contain many of these at the moment is most likely to be replaced by AI. So jobs most likely to persevere in law will probably contain these characteristics. Empathy and communication, Critical thinking Creativity ,Imagination and vision. An example of when these characteristics can be misperceived or not fully needed to be in a job are with people who work in care homes. When categorizing a specific job to a certain characteristic you have to be very careful when dealing with AI because of misconceptions that when looking at the job with face value. In a care home it there are often people with severe memory loss and various other problems that come with old age. You would think that looking after old people would require a lot of human characteristics but can also be very frustrating. Now it could be argued that when someone with dementia is being served by a nurse the human characteristics of the nurse are not really needed. This is because something that looks humanoid enough to be a nurse and can formulate all the sentences and perform everything a nurse can do would be even better than a nurse for treating someone with dementia. This is because the AI would have a lot more patience and be able to perform the same tasks as what a nurse does. But this brings into question philosophical question of if people know something is an AI even if it is as similar to a human will they reject compared to if they didn’t know it was an AI would people even know? Now, this is could be a factor to persevere many jobs as if U ask people why a human is better than a robot which is identical to that human in every single way they will just say because it is a robot. This brings to question with the development of AI what jobs will be able to get away with using AI before there is a public objection, Introducing new factors into the equation. Showing that the development of AI won’t necessarily put people out of work it will more likely make people work less or differently depending on their industry. ‘Professor Richard Susskind, the author of The Future of the Professions and Tomorrow’s Lawyers, echoes this distinction. “What you’re going to see for a lot of jobs is a churn of different tasks,” he explains. “So a lawyer today doesn’t develop systems that offer advice, but the lawyer of 2025 will. They’ll still be called lawyers but they’ll be doing different things.”’ [Mahdawi, A., & Chalabi, M. (2018).]
There is also no dought about it that AI is going to affect the economy in the upcoming future and this could also be a not just a side effect but a limiting factor to the success of AI. This will help in the perseverance of jobs since in the worst case scenario’s if AI managed become so successful it could take over any job if all the employers decided to replace their workforce it would cause the mass majority to jobless. With the only people making money being the employers this would not work for the economy and it would collapse in a short period of time. This means if it came to the worst scenario AI could never take over every Job because by that time Regime’s probably would have been enforced by the government to prevent a disaster like that from happening. Also if the Government could somehow find a way that AI taking over all jobs could work then it would just obsolete humans making them pointless. [Strether, L. and Strether, L. (2019).] Just the boredom of having nothing to do would probably cause many people to want to go back to work Even AI could provide also create part-time working is generally the preferred thing. Even when a poll was done asking mothers looking after children under the age of 18 44% they would rather work on top of looking after their children which is a minority but still a significant amount of people. [Petropoulos, G. (2018)]. We would have to live in a communist society which never goes well as shown numerous times throughout history. [Slideplayer.com. (2019).] We can also often be misled by infographics that have been quickly made with little research and this misleads people into thinking there is going to be a worse effect from AI. “Low- and high-skilled jobs have so far been less vulnerable to automation. The low-skilled jobs categories that are considered to have the best prospects over the next decade — including food service, janitorial work, gardening, home health, childcare, and security — are generally physical jobs, and require face-to-face interaction. At some point, robots will be able to fulfil these roles, but there’s little incentive to roboticist these tasks at the moment, as there’s a large supply of humans who are willing to do them for low wages.” — [Manjoo, F. (2018).]
Also, there is the question of if it is a good idea to let software and machinery which is highly intelligent and adaptable to run everything that goes in throughout the world. The answer that most people will give will be a definite no because of the fear of AI becoming independent and succeeding humans which people generally do not like the idea of. More than 70% of US fears robots taking over our lives, survey finds proving the point [Solon, O. (2018).] Although I have not stated exact jobs that will persevere in law in 50 years’ time I have still shown that there are secure jobs and that not all jobs in the Law industry are doomed. Showing that AI will not get rid of all jobs ever but it may cause displacement within the Law industry and in a lot of scenario’s jobs will just be kept.
To come to a conclusion on how Artificial Intelligence will affect job industry in both complex jobs like law and simple jobs like truckers as it has already started to do. There will probably be many jobs lost in law due to advancement in AI over the next 50 years though this does not mean the job economy will necessarily be ruined. Considering figure 4 and figure 4 even if AI does develop at an exponential rate in the best scenario it will never get to the stage where it can even replace half the jobs in law in the next 50 years. [Legal Profession Statistics. (2018)] This will cause a lot of the displacement to the job industry with some loss of jobs perhaps benefiting some law firms since they will be able to be more specialized. I also believe no such thing as full automation of everything will ever exist because the human would have no purpose if done so and it would never logistically work even if the computer was able to take over any job. It’s like when flying cars came out everyone thought they were going to be the new biggest thing they’ve been around for over 50 years now and no one uses them because they are a logistical nightmare.
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