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Viability Of New Provinces History Essay

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The first ideological state of the World; Pakistan since its independence in yr 1947 followed the concept' for electing the members of legislature / parliaments till the time of West Pakistan felt insecure of retaining their seats in the parliament against the erstwhile East Pakistan counterparts. Foreseeing their imminent defeat in the then forthcoming elections, West Pakistan was declared a separate Unit and given more number of seats in the Parliament based on population ratio. The country, since then, has been the victim of personal / party conveniences rather than maintaining a cohesive national approach towards resolution of issues confronted by the nation from time to time. It does not need to be over emphasized that the country continues to face serious administrative and economic issue in the absence of viable and prudent administrative division. The need to have or not to have new provinces has always fell prey to the political and personal expediency rather than the vital national requirement.

Over the past decades, power hubs and most of the development funds out of national / provincial budgets have been circulated / spent within the limited provincial / federal capital and selected places having direct bearings to personal reputation / comforts. This attitude, coupled with the media blitz, vested interests of non staged actors and administrative difficulty caused to the people of distant cities to approach the provincial capitals have the potential to intensify the sense of deprivation amongst the underprivileged populace of remote / less developed areas within each province. The existing state of deprivation can give further rise to the ethno-political and linguistic divide. The rapid population has only compounded the administrative and socio political affairs. Necessity of creation of the new provinces notwithstanding, it would have considerable economic concerns. The other school of thought considers that by improving the governance in existing administrative setups of divisions and districts, allocating sufficient development funds to immediately undertake major projects in deprived areas would do the trick.

Apropos the above mentioned facts, the question of having or not having new provinces, along with its constitutional, political, structural, socio-economic and national implications needs to be thoroughly and dispassionately. Nexus to above, carryout a detailed analysis for the viability of new provinces vis-a-vis existing system, while suggesting a far-sighted way forward.

SUB THEME

In the recent years, ethnic and political problems have been on the increase in Pakistan. Amongst a host of factors, mal-governance and deteriorating economy situation are considered the major causes of the strife. Coupled with this, the role of religious parties and ethnic organizations has also come under severe criticism. The existing deteriorating conditions of the country and the state of deprivation amongst the masses, has further complicated the ethno-political and linguistic divide. The creation of new provinces would have considerable ethno-political concerns and will further aggravate the instability amongst the masses Government Institutions. Nexus to above, there is a need to carryout detailed viability for creation of new provinces on the basis of ethno-political structures of Pakistan.

VIABILITY OF NEW PROVINCES IN PAKISTAN

Intro

1. Pakistan was created on the basis of two nation theory. The only bond which connected the people from various regions and classes/casts was the religion. Both the states opted to adopt the Government of India act 1935, which was parliamentary in nature. Since creation Pakistan faced many difficulties and amongst them, promulgation of constitution was foremost. It was very imp due to two main reasons, 1st to give direction to the political forces of all regions and 2nd to give equal and rightful representation to all ethnic groups. After approval of 1st constitution, federal system of Government was chosen for Pakistan, with max autonomy to provinces in mind. Over a period of time, we kept on switching between democratic and martial law regimes, and virtually no one political system has been able to flourish. Resultantly this gave the worst set back of history to Pakistan in 1973.

2. Provincial structuring of Pakistan in its present shape based on linguistic diversity (Punjabi, Baluchi, Sindhi and Pakhtuns) as the factor of territorial equation was probably not kept in view at the time of independence. Thus administrative units were contrived with ethnic units keeping intact. This fact was realized in earlier timeframe and a system of one unit was introduced. However, that too failed and the present structure came into being as described in constitution of 1973. The issue has regained prominence on renaming of North West Frontier Province (NWFP) as Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and the reaction in its Hazara Division. It gave added impetus to the demand of a separate province in southern parts of Punjab due to prevailing political wrangling of various parties for their vested interests, resurfacing the demand for Bhawalpur and Seraiki provinces since the break-up of one unit in 1970. The demands may set in motion trend for other provinces in rest of the country for which many proposals are already being trumpeted. However, there is a requirement to deliberate upon these proposals on ethno political basis for an ultimate decision in the national interest.

Aim

3. To carryout in depth analysis for creation of new provinces on ethno political structural basis in Pakistan and proffer suitable way fwd for having more provinces.

Sequence

4. Historical Perspective and Background - Part 1

5. Arguments Far & Against New Provinces - Part 2

6. Analysis and Important Conclusions - Part 3

7. Recommendations - Part 4

PART- I

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE AND BACKGROUND

Background of the Issue

History of the issue under evaluation goes back to the time of creation of Pakistan when various princely states and territories formed part of Pakistan as separate entities within the new creation. The periodical changes hitherto in the status of these princely states and territories have given reasons to think for a possible change in the existing administrative structure / division of the country.

The administrative units of Pakistan as of today are[update] derived from the administrative units inherited from British India.

From independence in 1947 to 1971, Pakistan comprised two 'wings' separated by 1600 kilometers of Indian Territory. The eastern wing comprised the single province of East Bengal. The western wing was formed from three full provinces i.e then NWFP, West Punjab and Sind, one Chief Commissioner's Province (Baluchistan), thirteen princely states and parts of Kashmir.

In 1948, the area around Karachi was separated from Sind Province to form the Federal Capital Territory. In 1950 name of West Punjab was changed to Punjab. The four princely states of southwest Pakistan formed the Baluchistan States Union in 1952.

The One Unit policy was enforced in 1955, whereby the provinces and princely states of the western wing were merged to form the new province of West Pakistan with Lahore as the provincial capital.

Simultaneously East Bengal was renamed as East Pakistan with Dhaka as the provincial capital.

In 1960 the federal capital was moved from Karachi to Rawalpindi and then to Islamabad when it was completed, followed in 1961 by the merger of the Federal Capital Territory into West Pakistan. West Pakistan was dissolved in 1970 by President Yahya Khan and four new provinces were created.

East Pakistan became independent in December 1971 as the new country of Bangladesh.

In 1974 the last of the princely states (Hunza and Nagar) were finally abolished and their territory merged with the Gilgit Agency to form the Northern Areas and later as Gilgit Baltistan province. The Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) was formed from parts of Hazara, districts of Peshawar and Dera Ismail Khan in 1975.

The status of the Islamabad area was changed to a capital territory in 1981.

In 2010, the NWFP changed its name to KPK. This change of name regenerated the notion of creating more provinces in Pakistan on various factors and drivers.

The present day Pakistan's administrative units [1] is as under:-:-

Ser

Administrative Unit

Population

Area (Km²)

Population Density

(Per Km²)

a.

Baluchistan Province

4.8%

39.3%

18.9

b.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province

12.9%

8.5%

238.1

c.

Punjab Province

53.7%

23.3%

358.5

d.

Sindh Province

22.2%

16.0%

216

e.

Islamabad Capital Territory

0.6%

0.1%

888.8

f.

Federally Administered Tribal Areas

2.3%

3.1%

116.7

g.

Azad Kashmir

2.2%[

1.5%

223.6

h.

Gilgit-Baltistan

1.3%

8.2%

24.8

Total

100%

100%

193.9

The issue of the creation of new provinces has become an ardent debate; it has started with the KPK (Hazara) and Punjab (Saraiki and Bahawalpur) but may not begin or end thereafter. While supporting the creation of new provinces may appear an easy way out for the politicians, it is going to be a difficult task to actually carve them out. Once the genie is out it will not be possible to force it back into the bottle. Like creation of new districts, addition of provinces would become a political appeasement tool in a run up to each election. At the end of the day, country is likely to end up having a provincial map very close to an existing administrative entity called 'Division'.Pakistan-New-Provinces.jpg

Political Structure of Pakistan

Federal Form of Government and Implications on Provinces. Pakistan is a federation by constitution 1973. The 1st and foremost feature of the federalism is the existence of two sets of constitution including national / state and regional or provincial. Each is free to function within its own defined field. Various features of the federal system, which are its essence and clearly indicate our limitations, are as under:-

It maintains a written constitution which establish the relationship between federations various elements.

Division of powers between federation and various entities is on regional / territorial basis and written in law. It does not have some specific formula and every country has made it as per its own requirements.

Federal system believes in de-centralized of powers.

Common features including the existence of independent judiciary.

It is an attempt in heterogeneous societies to promote coop and coordinated in the social, political, economy and administration fields as well as respect and accommodation of diversity for various constituent units.

Certain factors which facilitate the smooth function of federalism including:-

Units must share the sense of community.

There should be no sharp inequality in size, resources and population.

Equitable sharing of economy resources.

Geographical contiguity.

Democratic form of Government and greater decentralization.

Political Populous Support in Various Provinces for Different Political Parties. The passage of 18th amendment and the change in the name of NWFP to KPK has arose a sense of deprivation in the people of Hazara which resulted in the sudden increase in the pace of the movement for the demand of Hazara province for which more than a dozen people lost their lives in April 2010 . In the same vain the Nawab of Bahawalpur paced up his demand for a separate province the Saraiky province seekers want to make two districts of KPK and 19 districts of Southern Punjab to make their province. Will it be possible in the light of current party position in Punjab assembly to acquire two third votes for the division of the province? Moreover The government that already have the blood of dozen innocent people of Hazara on its hands can be perceived to allow it's two districts to be taken by someone else? All this shows that our motherland is going towards a series of constitutional, political ethnic and financial crisis, which are anticipated as the adverse effects of the creation of new provinces in Pakistan. Meanwhile the master stroke of the chief minister of Punjab (his statement of bifurcating Sindh) has further heated this political debate and has exposed many faces believing more in regionalism than in nationalism. Following have to be considered:-

There will be a new debate of the division of revenues, new provincial consolidated funds should be created irrespective of the fact whether the newly created provinces are able to make their way or they will prove to be another liability on the federation.

Let us say that the government admits to the demands of the new provinces, what will be the result? More ethnic movements will arise and different ethnicities will ask for separate province on the bases of their ethnicity, some pressure groups will press hard for the creation of new provinces that will severely undermine the already divided sense of nation hood. The creation of new provinces on the bases of ethnicity will be another blow to the already in questioned ideology of Pakistan. Moreover many Nawabs of the states (that exceeded to Pakistan after its independence) will follow the footsteps of Nawab of Bahawalpur that will create another dilemma.

If the creation of new provinces will not result in the automatic improvement of the management, if the creation of more administrative units on ethnic lines is going to endanger the sense of nation hood, if more provinces cannot help in bridging the gulf between the ruler and the ruled and if the multiplication of the number of federating units is anticipated to create more constitutional problems that would require another 64 years to solve them then why this frenzy of the creation of new provinces in Pakistan has been created at the time when the land of pure is already in crises.

Punjab its Political Dynamics with ref to Creation of Sarikistan Province. Alone Punjab accounts for over more than 50% of the population of the country while Balochistan which is having around 50% of the country's whole area, is having only 5% of the population. With the movement of Hazara province and 18th amendment there come up a sudden demand for Sareiki Province including two districts of KPK and 19 districts of Punjab. There are three major political parties having different views:-

PML (N). This party is not in favour of creation of provinces in Punjab, rather want to have broader consideration. Party wants to have more no of provinces on administration grounds and irrespective of the demands of people.

PML (Q). It is an imp actor in this scene. It is in favour of separate province in the southern part of Punjab to capitalize on its popularity for political reasons.

PPP. Again just to lower the popularity and Government of PML (N), they are in favor of creation of this province.

Other Political Parities. Many small political parties such as MQM, Jamat-e-Islami and JUI does not have considerable influence due to less no of seats in provincial assembly.

Change of Political Affiliations. Most of the MNAs keep on switching their political affiliations as per the popular sentiments. This is not for want of the betterment of people rather it is for self served future political benefits. This trend is more pronounced like once elections are nearing.

PART-II

ARGUMENTS FAR & AGAINST NEW PROVINCES

Proposals and Political Demands [2] 

There are many proposals for creation of more provinces in Pakistan. Whereas, each exponent has logic in support of the proposal, these require deliberation before taking a final decision in national interest. Besides many voices, most prominent are from Mr.Javaid Hashmi who is a renowned Seraiki politician in Multan, the largest city in the Seraiki belt. He has on previous occasions supported the creation of new provinces in order to improve governance quality and adm efficiency and had implied support for a Seraiki province. According to Hashmi, a province should be created which incl Multan and Bahawalpur, adding that in the future to solve problems Karachi, Lahore and Quetta could also be made into provinces [3] . The PML-N has approved in principle the formation of new provinces strictly on adm basis Summary of various proposals appeared in media is as fol [4] :-

Proposal

Exponent

Motive

Remarks

Restoration of former Bahawalpur Province

Muhammad Ali Durrani, PML(Q)

Ijaz-ul-Haq (PML(Q)

Political

History

Creation of Seraiki Province from Punjab

PML (Q) and PPP

Political

Linguistic

Creation of Hazara Province from KPK

Hazara Province

Political

History

Linguistic

Creating more provinces from Punjab alone on history / linguistic basis

Mr Ayaz Amir

Linguistic

Creating province from Sindh for Karachi and Hyderabad

MQM (Initial Stance)

Political

Ethnic

Creating more provinces on administrative grounds

Mr Nawaz Sharif, PML(N)

Salim Saifullah, PML (LM)

Administrative

Creating more provinces from all provinces

PML (N)

MNA Javed Hashmi, PML(N)

Political

Administration

Case for new provinces is also based on the continuous neglect of the far flung areas by successive regimes and marginalization of people residing on peripheries of existing provinces in terms of economic development builds a strong case for creation of smaller units especially with the high population density in certain areas making the quality of service delivery by existing mechanisms poorer and poorer. In fact this panel feels that one major cause of 'poor governance' is failure to create new provinces. As such the following points also merit attention:-

Population Growth. The 180 million population with 60 million plus alone in Punjab demands creation of new provinces to develop the areas lagging behind current provincial headquarters / big cities in particular.

Spatial Disparities. It is critical that the new provinces are created to remove spatial disparities, develop infrastructure; set up schools, colleges, hospitals. The creation of new provinces will allow the structured development of areas hitherto fore in a state of utter neglect due to lack of time out their urgent needs.

Over Burdened Politicians / Bureaucrats. Paucity of time with elected representatives / bureaucrats to entertain issues confronting residents of peripheral areas. The creation of new provinces will speed up focused dev; dispel feelings of marginalization and deprivation by the people who have to wait for days in provincial capitals to get a hearing from the elected representatives and bureaucrats who are busy in the issues confronting mega cities like Karachi, Lahore and the unique law and order issues of Peshawar and Quetta.

Comparative Study [5] 

India. In India, on the other hand language was used as a basis of provincial divisions. As such, India reorganized and created more provinces on the basis of language. In Pakistan, the governments in power felt that language was not an acceptable basis or legitimate source of identity and the creation of new provinces were continuously opposed. The criteria for new provinces on the basis of language were felt to be a potential cause of political destabilization. As such demand/creation of language-based provinces was considered as taboo. Apart from their core communities, these provinces contained large ethnic minorities, which retained provincial aspirations of their own, e.g. Pakhtuns in Balochistan, Mohajirs (Urdu speaking migrants from India) in Sindh, Siraiki-speakers in south Punjab and Hindko-speakers in the Hazara division of NWFP. More over in Pakistan there is a requirement for a two-third majority in the two houses of parliament to create a new province, along with consent in the assembly of the provinces concerned. These requirements have made the creation of a new province extremely difficult. In contrast in India, a simple majority of the LokSabha is required while opinion of the state legislature has to be sought.

USA. In case of USA, there are 50 states and each state has its own constitution, however, the federation has its control through a federal presidential form of government with the Congress and the Senate.

Afghanistan. Afghanistan, our next door neighbour has 29 provinces for a population of about 28 million. The division of Afghanistan into provinces is based on ethnic and tribal affinities and these provinces are controlled by the ruler in Kabul historically. The ruler in Kabul always managed these provinces through the tribal hierarchy. Afghanistan has been subjected to revolutions, civil wars, insurgencies and invasions but the unity of Afghanistan remained intact due to large number of smaller provinces.

Other Examples. "While large unequal provinces are always prone to breed and fuel secessionist mind-sets, smaller provinces serve as a safety valve against such tendencies. Nigeria, facing religion-bases secessionist war in Biafra Region in 1960s solved this problem by forming smaller provinces. Most of the large and medium sized countries in today's world have divided themselves into smaller provinces or states as "administrative units". Examples are:-

China 34 provinces, India 28 states and seven union territories, Iran 30 provinces, Indonesia 33, Egypt 26, France 26, Germany 16, Nigeria 38, Philippines 80, Thailand 78, Turkey 81 and UK 114 counties.

Looking at the systems of other developed and developing countries, we find ourselves a unique example of federation with almost no parallel anywhere in the world. No country, roughly equal to Pakistan geographical or population size, has so few and such large provinces [6] .

In an unequal setup, no method of government will work. It is a system designed for paralysis which we are already experiencing.

Rationale / Necessity [7] for Having New Provinces

The neglect of the far flung areas and marginalization of people residing on periphery's of existing provinces in terms of economic development form a major necessity resulting in demand for more provinces. Other reasons are:-

Exponential Growth. Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world. The exponential growth in population demands creation of new provinces to improve service delivery.

Neglect of Peripheral Areas. Neglect of many parts due to attention to provincial capitals and big cities resulted in poor governance and said neglect of the peripheral areas by successive Governments.

Removal of Disparities. Need to remove special disparities. Develop infrastructure; set up schools, colleges and hospitals. New Province creation likely to speed up focused development and dispels feeling of marginalization / deprivation.

Opportunities for less Privileged. Creation of more provinces is thought to provide more opportunities for the less privileged classes.

End of Dynasty based Politics. It may lead to ending dynasty-based politics in the country which on rise at the moment.

Ease of Access. On administrative grounds to facilitate poor masses to have access to line departments close to their localities.

Grass Roots Level Empowerment. Creating more provinces would empower people at grassroots level to facilitate the people at their doorsteps.

Creative use of Ethnic Diversities. Unnatural unity tends to strengthen sub-identities and have often weakened the commitment to Pakistani identity. Ethnic diversities, being inerasable components of the human genome, cannot be cured and hence must be endured. In fact, must be celebrated and managed creatively.

De-centralization of Power. De-centralization of power to the provinces is necessary. In a decentralized system, local representatives make local autonomous decisions towards achievement of its local goals aimed to culminate into national good.

Governance improvement. Creation of more provinces may lead to possible improvement in governance.

Enhancement of Unity of Nation. Splitting provinces into more compact, efficient and effective units has the benefit of reducing the importance of provinces, which interfere with the cohesion of the country as one nation.

Adm, Log and Cultural Harmony. Once the country will be divided into more compact smaller units, than it will have positive effs. So more provinces are likely to ensure the smooth administrative, logistic and cultural harmony.

Estb of the Writ of the State. Failure of the state to establish its writ in many parts of the country has created a situation where far-flung neglected populations are in danger of shifting their allegiances to the terrorists, extremists and criminals.

Greater Homogeneity. Creation of more provinces will afford greater homogeneity. This homogeneity will benefit the country in overall progress.

Reduction of Congestion in Big Cities. More provinces means more developed cities and all the population congestion towards Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar and Quetta will be reduced.

Distribution of Resources. Distribution of provinces into more compact and smaller units, if coordinated and agreed will result into better distribution of resources.

Pakistani Nationalism. It will give rise to Pakistani nationalism rather than Punjabi, Sindhi, Pashto or Balochi, if the division is not based on languages.

Filtration of Bad Politicians. It probably will allow the politician to seriously work for their people once they don't have 'big brother' Punjab to blame for deprivation and problems.

Rationale / Necessity for Not Having New Provinces [8] 

There however are certain impediments which may hinder creation of more provinces. Details are as following:-

Stress on Pakistani Nationhood. Fear of the stress that they may exert on the untested foundations of Pakistani nationhood. People were killed in rioting leading up to a mere change of name from NWFP to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Rise to Ethnicity. May give further rise to ethnicity. Creation of more provinces on the basis of ethnicity exacerbates the feeling of isolation. This is a self-destructive tendency. Creating new provinces may affect Pakistan's unity like it did to Yugoslavia.

Problem of Adm and Pol Realities. Ethnic aspirations cause problems to recognize administrative and political realities. Every ethnic aspiration does not justify a province. If the move to make new provinces catches roots, Pakistan would be de-novo decimated into several petty ethnic provinces.

Equality of Geography and Population. The degree of equality of geographical and population sizes across provinces may not be a balanced one giving rise to problems of its own.

Sindhi Nationalist Ideology. Sindhi nationalists strongly oppose division of Sindh.

Economy Difficulties. Raising funds locally would be difficult particularly under the current not so healthy state of Pakistan's economy.

Size. There is no definition of "correct" size of a province or state.

Division of Punjab. Punjab plays a major part in Pakistan politics and its division may not be accepted by influential politicians.

Poor Institutions. Smaller provinces would have lesser human capital and civil society institutions and therefore might be susceptible to the problem of poorer institutions.

Inter Provincial Struggle. The division of larger provinces may cause inter provincial struggle / friction for resource control.

Balkanization. With uncontrolled increase in population growth, the country cannot be subjected to balkanization.

Division of Balochistan. Pakhtun province carved out of Balochistan until the more sensitive Baloch grievances are resolved would be detrimental to Pakistan's unity.

However, the rationale for the creation of 'new' provinces carries more weight due to the fact that development of areas which in the last sixty four years have been unable to show any tangible socio-economic development, the new provinces will enable them to generate their own resources, make their own decisions to address the years of neglect and lack of focus on areas away from the provincial Capitals and the 'big cities'.

PART-III

OPTIONS AVAL AND ANALLYSIS

Options and Analysis

Above discussion straight away lead us to various options for creation of more provinces or for that matter more administrative units, which are mentioned as under:-

Option-1. Declare the former administrative commensurate divisions as provinces. However, this would result in creation of over 30 provinces which in the present socio-economic and political circumstances is not viable option.

Advantages

Creation of more than 30 provinces.

Creation of more minor administrative units.

Well defined and establish boundaries.

Non lingual and ethnic basis.

Disadvantages

More no of administrative units.

More expenses.

Viability of few administrative units with reference to bearing their own burden will be questionable.

Distribution of resources amongst units will be difficult.

Option-2. Popular option can be to create more provinces on the basis of cultural, ethnic and linguistic lines. However, such creation would have a negative impact on national cohesion.

Advantages

Societies will remain united as per their culture, ethnic and lingual lines.

No cultural or ethnic or lingual dichotomies.

Most political parties are expected to agree with that.

Disadvantages

Will give rise to ethnicity instead of national cohesion.

Viability of few administrative units will be questionable.

More expensive option.

Boundary demarcation will be disputed.

Option-3. Another option of creating new provinces is based on demography (population and area) and administrative grounds. This option can be considered and subsequent to national consensus provinces can be carved out from the existing provinces.

Advantages

Geographical contiguity will be ensured.

Div on administrative grounds.

Most political parties are expected to favour this option.

Disadvantages

Consensus creation will be diff issue.

Bdry demarcation will not be easy.

Viability of few provinces will be questionable.

Size and resource distribution will be difficult.

Option-4. [9] Most of the proposed provinces are linguistically heterogeneous & geographically strongly bonded. Many smaller languages will geo also get chance to flourish because majority languages will not be in absolute (2/3rd) majority to over shadow minority languages as in the present provinces. The four provinces of Pakistan can be further divided into a total of 11 provinces and federal capital Islamabad. However, the proposal is ambitious and does not seem viable to be implemented in view of the socio-economic and political environment of the country. It has been reproduced below as an innovative thought that after due consideration would result in further deliberations and suggestions. Names have been suggested for the provinces, however, the inhabitants of the new provinces shall have the right to choose appropriate. The option is option is as under:-

Cholistan Province

Capital. Bahawalpur.

Linguistic Composition. Saraiki, Punjabi and Urdu.

Districts. Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and Rahim Yar Khan

Current Estimated Population. 10 million.

Logic. Geographically on the right side of the Satluj River. Linguistically heterogeneous. Currently under developed &under-utilized. Much farther from the existing capital Lahore. New capital Bahawalpur will be in the middle of the province. It is already linked with N5 National Highway and main railway line and has a high court bench.

Punjab Province

Capital. Lahore.

Linguistic Composition. Punjabi and Urdu

Districts. Lahore, Kasur, Okara, Nankanasb, Sheikhupura, Gujranwala, Hafizabad, Sialkot, Narowal, and Faisalabad (partly).

Current Estimated Population: 36.4 Million.

Logic: Right side of Chanab.

Gandhara Province

Capital. Joharabad (District Khushab).

Linguistic Composition. Potohari, Saraiki, Punjabi and Pashto.

Districts. Rawalpindi (partly), Jehlum, Attock, Chakwal, Gujrat, Mandi Bahuddin, Sargodha, Khushab, Jhang, Mianwali, Bhakkar, Laiyya, Chinot and DG Khan (partly).

Current Estimated Population. 24 Million.

Logic. Under developed western Punjab area, would get great benefit from developing new cities, like Joharabad. Joharabad is in the center of Province. North of Joharabad is Potohari, East is Punjab and South is Saraiki dominant districts. Therefore the new provincial capital will be the meeting point of all three rich cultures and hence will be the torch bearer of development and homogeneity for this province. The new capital city Jauharabad will not face water shortages as river Jehlum passes by it.

Panjnad Province

Capital. Multan.

Linguistic Composition. Saraiki, Punjabi, urdu and Balochi.

Districts. Multan, Lodharan, Khanewal, Sahiwal, Vehari, Pakpattan, Faisalabad (partly), TT Singh, Muzaffargarh, DG Khan (partly) and Rajanpur

Current Estimated Populatio. 24Million.

Logic. Multan is already the hub of cultural and political center for southern Punjab. Panjnad Province will become focus of agriculture and dairy products. Multan is also in the middle of the proposed Panjnad province and is well connected with nearby towns and cities and rest of Pakistan. Proposed Panjnad Province will have significant punjabi province in north eastern districts, urdu in the urban areas, Balochi in western districts &Saraiki in central & western districts.

Bolan Province

Capital. Quetta.

Linguistic Composition. Pashto, Balochi and Brahvi.

Districts. Quetta, Ziarat, Mastung, Qila Abdullah, Pashin, Lora Lai, Barkhan, Musakhel, QilaSaifullah, Zhob, Shirani, Harnai, Sibi, Kolhu, DeraBugti, Jaffarabad, Nasirabad, Jhalmagsi and Kacchi (Bolan).

Current Estimated Population. 6 Million.

Logic. The Bolan province will approximately be same as British Balochistan of Colonial era. Veteran leaders from Balochistan, like ex-Prime Minister from Balochistan, Mir ZafarUllah Khan Jamali, Mehmood Khan Achakzai have also once expressed their approval in dividing Balochistan in Quetta & Kalat division of 1970s. The heterogeneous Bolan Province is amalgam of Pashtun, Balochi & Brahvi culture. Quetta has representation from all three cultures.

Makran Province

Capital. Khuzdar.

Linguistic Composition. Balochi and Brahvi.

Districts. Khuzdar, Kalat, Noshki, Chaghi, Kharan, Washuk, Panjgor, Turbat, Gawadar, Awaran and Lasbela

Estimated Population. 3 Million.

Logic. Khuzdar Province is one of the richest areas of Pakistan with minerals resources. It also has Gawadar Port, Gadani ship breaking yard. Saindak & Rekodek are also located in this province. Proposed Provincial Capital, Khuzdar, is already well connected with Quetta, Karachi, Larkana through RCD road & M8 Motorway. Within proposed Province all major cities like Lasbella, Turbet, Gawadar & Kalat are also connected with Khuzdar.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province

Capital. Peshawar.

Linguistic Composition. Pashto, Saraiki and Hindko.

Districts. Peshawar, Noshera, Charsadda, Kohat, Karak, Hangu, Lakki Marwat, Bannu, DI Khan and Tank.

Estimated Population. 9.75 Million.

Logic. Proposed Kalabagh Dam will benefit southern districts of proposed KP Province, Tank & DI Khan at the cost of some land of Nowshera District. Royalty from the Kalabagh &Munda Dams& also the natural gas reservoir of Karak will make the province economically viable.

Abaseen Province

Capital. Mardan.

Linguistic Composition. Pashto, Hindko, Kohistani, Chitrali.

Districts. Mardan, Sawabi, Haripur, Abottabad, Manshera, Torghar, Batagram, Kohistan, Shangla, Sawat, Bonair, Dirbala, Dirpayin, Malakand and Chitral.

Estimated Population. 13 Million.

Logic. Comprising of the northern areas, this province have the potential to truly exploit tourism industry. Tarbella & Bhasha Dam would provide substantial revenue stream for the development of the province and has high potential to generate hydro-electricity. Mardan is chosen as the capital, because, firstly it is in planar district and is accessible all year around from both Hazara & Malakand divisions.

Khorasan Province

Capital. Torkham.

Linguistic Composition. Pashto.

Districts. Bajur, Mohmand, Torkham (Khyber Agency), Kurram, Orakzai, North Waziristan and South Waziristan.

Estimated Population. 5 Million.

Logic. Making FATA as a province will start the era of economic growth and amalgamation of the region with the rest of the country. It will also help to remove the sense of depravity in the people.

Sindh Uttar Province

Capital. Sukkur.

Linguistic Composition. Sindhi.

Districts. Sukkar, Ghotki, Khairpur, Nowsheroferoz, shikarpur, Larkana, Kambar, Kashmor, Jacobabad, Dadu, and Jamshoro (partly).

Estimated Population. 13.5 Million.

Logic. Other than Hyderabad, interior Sindh is also one of the most deprived areas of the country, which even after having potential in many different fields is backward and under developed. Sukkar is already the economic & cultural centre of the northern Sindh and have full potential to become one of the key economic cities of Pakistan. Also it is well connected with Karachi, Quetta & Northern Pakistan through road, air & railway.

Sindh Dakshin Province

Capital. Hyderabad.

Linguistic Composition. Sindhi, Urdu, Punjabi, Pashto, Balochi, Gujrati and Marwari.

Districts. Karachi, Jamshoro (partly), Hyderabad, Matiari, TM Khan, Tandualayar, MirpurKhas, Umar Kot, Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Nawabshah and Sanghar.

Estimated Population. 26 Million.

Logic. Third largest city in 1951 & the historic capital of Sindh in pre-colonial era, has lost its glory by being overshadowed by Karachi. Also it is the convergence point of Sindhi & Urdu cultures, two main cultures of the proposed province. Also Karachi is over burdened by being the port & only industrial city in southern Pakistan. By shifting capital to Hyderabad will allow. Hyderabad to flourish & reduce population inflow in Karachi.

Federal Capital

Islamabad and Rawalpindi

Current Estimated Population. 2.5 Million.

Logic. Rawalpindi city is already surrounded by Islamabad from three sides. So making it part of Islamabad will be a natural choice.

Option 5. The following new provinces can be considered as option 5:-

Proposal

Seraiki Province / Bahawalpur Janobi Punjab out of the existing Punjab mainly comprising of southern Punjab with few districts of KPK. Being most viable, majority of the people are in favour of it. Furthermore it will reduce the influence of Punjab on national scene and feeling of victimization by one province.

Hazara Province out of the existing KPK will contribute more positively towards the dev of the both provinces.

Pukhtun area of Balochistan incl few agencies of FATA to be declared as a province.

Karachi out of Sindh with few nearby districts of Balochistan. Most of the people will have all administration nearby with better prospects of Karachi and rural Sindh development.

Advantages

Economy viable.

Only nec new provinces are carved / suggested.

Less economy burden.

Non lingual and no ethnic creation of new provinces.

Carving of boundary will be easy.

Disadvantages

Political parties will try to propose and oppose these as per their own political interest.

Creation of consensus will be difficult.

Misc Issues. Various other issues related with the creation of new provinces are highlighted as under:-

More Expenses. There will more exp and it will be burdon on the meager resources of that provinces. This will be mainly required for:-

More administration expenses.

More no of CMs, Governors and burecrates.

More no of ministers and their protocol.

Distribution of Resources. Their will be a serious issue with reference to demarcation of various resources and their royalty, spec water resources.

Ethnic Issues. It will not be possible to settle all the ethnic issues and hence it will result into giving rise to more ethnic problems.

Constitutional Implications

National Finance Commission (NFC) Award. Article 160 of the constitution of Pakistan states that after every five years the President shall constitute a NFC. This NFC will review the formula for the distribution of funds, taxes and other monetary assets among the Centre and the Provinces and among the four federating units of Pakistan namely, Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In case of creation of more provinces, the NFC award will have to be drastically amended in accordance with the number, geographical and demographic reflections of the new provinces. It is going to be an uphill task to arrive at a consensus and revise the NFC award.

Constitutional Amendment (legislation). Creation of the new provinces involves a constitutional amendment that requires a two thirds majority of both National Assembly and Senate of Pakistan before the bill is sent to the President for his approval. But before this happens, the relevant provincial assembly must adopt a provincial bill, to alter its limits, by two-thirds majority as well. The Article 239(4) of the Constitution clearly states this fact. A look at the party position in the Punjab Assembly shows that PML-N has 171 members from the house of 371 members. This makes 46.1% of total. So it's impossible to bring in such a change without PML Nawaz agreeing to it at this point in time.

Conclusions

After detailed analysis it can be concluded "our present provincial set-up has long been the cause of political instability with an ever-looming threat to country's very survival. Lately, there have been demands for more provinces on ethnic or linguistic grounds. If this trend were to continue, we will be left with a loosely wired skeleton of a federation with self-serving, disgruntled and corrupt politicians playing havoc. Solution lies in replacing existing four provinces with more new administration - determined provinces with some balance in their geographical and population size, free of ethnic and parochial labels but still constitutionally keeping their ethnic and national identities intact [10] ." More provinces mean:-

Promotion of national cohesion.

Reduction in sense of socio-economic deprivation.

Uniformity of development.

Better administration and governance.

Improved security and law and order.

More constitutional reforms will be req.

Consensus will be required for the purpose of smooth transition.

This may give rise to demand of more provinces.

Economy expenses will increase but more job opportunities.

Distribution of resources will have to agreed upon, otherwise it will create more distrust amongst old and new provinces.

While carrying out demarcation, lingual, ethnic and political interests have to guarded and looked upon very seriously.

PART-IV

RECOMMENDATIONS

The only way fwd to the progress of the country and for betterment of all sphere of life, is the distribution of large provinces into smaller provinces. The continue of federal system is recommended however with following changes:-

11The sanctity of "separation of powers" should be the basis of the federal system with three organs of the state functioning independently with usual checks and balances.

12The federal government should retain only 10 to 12 ministries responsible to formulate and implement national policies in important areas, notably defence, economy, education, foreign affairs, national security, trade, communication, justice and law.

13Bicameral system of legislature should continue with necessary adjustments giving all provinces equal representation in the Senate as at present except that all seats including those reserved for women and minorities should be filled through direct elections.

14Both houses together will legislate as in any parliamentary system on matters of national importance such as budget and economy, foreign affairs and national security, to help the federal government in formulating and implementing policies on these subjects.

There should be more and more devolution of powers transfer from centre to the provinces.

After detailed analysis, Option-5 is recommended, that is creation of four more provinces as follows:-

Seraiki Province. To be carved out of Punjab with Multan as its capital and the other districts will be Bahawalpur, Rahimyar Khan, DG Khan, DI Khan, Mianwali, Bhakkar, Layyah, Muzaffargarh and Rajanpur. All the political parties apparently have no objection to the creation of Seraiki province except PML (N) having few reservation. The commission for more provinces have finalized its creation with little changes such as name. They have proposed its name as Bahwalpur Southern Punjab and recommended Bhawalpur as its provincial capital.

Hazara Province. To be carved out of KPK with Abbotabad as its capital and the other districts will be Haripur, Mansehra, Tor Ghar, Battagram and Kohistan. There is likely opposition to this option by the ANP. However, PPP, PML-N and PML-Q and MQM are supportive of this option.

Pakhtun Area of Balochistan. To be carved out of Balochistan Province. This option can only be exercised once the Balochistan situation is brought under control and peace returns to the area. Any early proposition would further aggravate the sub-nationalist movement in Balochistan specially once it is under Governor rule.

Karachi. To be carved out of Sindh province. The urban coastal area of Karachi which is also the industrial hub of Pakistan would bring substantial benefits. The MQM is supportive of this idea whereas other major political parties mainly PPP and ANP oppose it along with Sindhi nationalists.

Way Forward

Formation of a National Commission. A national commission representing all major political parties as well as civil society may be constituted to examine and deliberate upon the creation of new provinces and come up with recommendations. One such type of commission has already been formed but it lacks representation from diff spheres of society and even a major political party, PML-N, has boycotted this commission. It seems that this commission has been mainly formed to serve the political purpose of few parties. This commission should mainly be reconstituted after the elections and it should finalise its recommendations by the end of 2013 and new provinces may be carved in the end of 2014.

Political Consensus. Subsequent to the recommendations of the national commission the same proposals must be debated in the National Assembly as well as the four provincial assemblies for arriving at a political consensus that might also suggest new proposals or amendments. This process should be completed prior to the budget session in June 2014.

Legalities [15] . As a consequence, there would be a number of legal implications concerning establishment of high courts in the new provinces and accordingly lower courts. Moreover, legal issues would arise in land revenue systems, boundary demarcations, water issues, NFC and other such consequential matters. For such matters a high level judicial and legal commission needs to be established for resolution of such legal implications.

Legislation (Constitutional Amendments) [16] . The creation of new provinces can be only affected through legislation and constitutional amendments. A parliamentary commission with representation from lawyer's fraternity/constitutional experts must be established to propose the requisite amendments before June 2012.Constitutionally, the path toward creating the new province is, if not totally, but nearly impossible in the present state of politics.

Financial and Resource Management [17] . This is a very important factor where in appropriate financial distribution of funds and resources have to be finalised among new provinces. Hence, like suggested commissions for other factors, a financial commission with appropriate representation from bureaucracy, politicians and economists may also be constituted to recommend measures for financial and resource implementation.

Time Frame.

It is an extremely sensitive matter that cannot be dealt with in haste, a lot of deliberations and thought process has to go into such proposals, it has to be a gradual process with recommendations for creating one or two new provinces in the first two years followed by gradual creation of more provinces in the coming decade. Immediate consideration should go to the Seraiki and Hazara province.

Conclusion

The issue of new provinces has been taken up by political parties as a political stunt and lacks the people's will. It seems an agenda item for political point scoring while ignoring the underlying problems of the people. New provinces may not produce the desired results, but it may generate new problems as the real problem has been the centralization of power and for long provinces have been demanding greater provincial autonomy that has been denied to them and this demand has been a cause of friction between the centre and the provinces. The solution lies not in creating new provinces but to devolve power at local level, to give people access to justice at the door step and to provide them with social security. The decision to create new provinces cannot be taken in haste; there is need to make a national commission, to develop studies, to achieve agreement on distribution of resources and most importantly to consider the aspirations of the people of the area who will constitute the new province. Holding of referendum will be the best option to know their opinion. The earlier mistake of renaming of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa without consulting the people of Hazara has to be avoided this time. The ultimate objective should be the strengthening of the federation.Ethnic structure of Pakistan

Ethnic spread over in various provinces

Does it really demand to create more provinces

Ethnic promotion verses nationalism

Effs of creation of Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa and demand of Hazara Province ( as already in NWFP Hazara's does don't have any obsn)

What could be basis of new division

Geographically

Demography

Linguistics

Political

Ethnicity

OR THE GAME OF INTERESTS

Problems/issues urging the need of having more New Provinces

Equality of rights

Want of good living stds

Speedy justice

More dev in respective areas

More chances of good governance

Speedy access to courts and political assy


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