Role of Demographic Transition in the Shaping of Modern Society

A Critical Review of Dyson, T. (2001) ‘A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society’, International Journal of Population Geography, 7(2), 67-90.

Introduction

Dyson (2001) endeavored to suggest that the demographic transition played a crucial role in the formation of modern society, and that its effects were actually underrated. In his paper he argued that the major consequences of sustained mortality decline in the modern world. This essay will critically review Dyson’s (2001) article and seek to criticize its main points by referring to different literatures on same topic.

Summary

Viewing from a ‘super-macro’ perspective, Dyson (2001) claimed that a decline in mortality would lead to urbanization and fertility decline. In turn, a decline in fertility and mortality would have impact on gender differentiation, that means, women’s behavior become more similar to men. To some extent this paper concisely conducted a study of demographic transition theory and its major impacts. However, there were still considerable uncertainty and ambiguity with regard to author’s argument.

Critique

   Figure 1: Demographic Transition               Figure 2: Profiles of Demographic

   in Selected Countries (Dyson, 2001)             Transition (Reher, 2004)

In terms of demographic transition, Dyson (2001) provided some statistics of birth and death rates for different countries (see figure 1). Focusing on major populations, the author suggested that the continuous mortality decline ultimately lead to massive birth rate declines in the 18^th century. In his paper Dyson (2001) was describing the demographic transition process of several countries to prove that, despite these transitions differed in detail and time-depth. Notably, he also explained that few unexpected conditions such as France were not real exceptions if viewing from macro perspective. However, Dyson’s excessively ideal argument might be untenable when referring to Reher’s article (2004). Standing on the opposite side, Reher (2004) stated that mortality decline was certainly an essential stimulus for fertility decline, while it was not single and universal factor. Reher (2004) provided more comprehensive statistics than Dyson’s paper (see figure 2). The main finding was the marriage restriction significantly attribute to fertility declines in earlier demographic transition in a number of European countries. Reher (2004) also explained the fertility decline was caused by society modernization and advent of new idea. In changing contexts of economy and society, Reher (2004) found conscious fertility control happened in historical Europe and many developing countries. In addition, the ‘new idea’ of small family system was discussed by Kirk (1996) in his article. Kirk (1996) analyzed the impact of individualism, the cost of children, and post-industrial urbanization on fertility reduction, which coincided with Reher’s arguments to a large extent. Reher (2004) perceptively pointed out mortality decline was not the unique determinants to fertility decline, and Kirk (1996) also clarified that there were many examples indicating fertility and mortality declined concurrently or fertility even declined before mortality reduction. Nonetheless, Dyson’s argument appears to be inadequate and attach too much significance to mortality reduction. His article simply assumed mortality decline was the sole decisive factor of fertility change, ignoring effects of other existing factors. The statistics given in his reports were insufficient so that Dyson failed to prove his findings could be applied to all places and times.

Figure 3: Relationships between urban development

and demographic transition (Dyson, 2001)

With regard to urbanization, Dyson (2001) discussed the connection between demographic transition and rural-urban migration on urban growth. The author’s basic argument could be summarized as the fertility decline can probably be regarded as a reason for urban growth. Dyson (2001) conducted his argument in reviewing the process of urbanization from 1800s, there existed a ceiling on urban population so that rural-urban migration largely contributed to urban growth due to the infectious diseases at that time. Following the demographic transition driven by mortality reduction eliminated the ceiling on urbanization in 1900s, the urban natural increase become the determinants to urban growth and the mortality decline in rural areas also simulated rural-urban migration to some extent (Dyson, 2001). As figure 3 shows, the relationship could be broadly linear between urban development and demographic transition process, which to a large extent prove Dyson’s argument in this part of his article. Furthermore, Dyson (2001) also mentioned the exceptions, that is, urban growth was still mainly caused by rural-urban migration in some countries in sub-Saharan Africa. More evidences to these exceptions could be found in other scholars’ articles. For example, Romaniuk (2011) focused on the case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which was a country still had not begun demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa yet. According to Romaniuk (2011), socio-economic factors and customs constrained the Democratic Republic of the Congo from meeting the condition for sustained demographic transition. These findings are actually informative to Dyson’s argument, while he did not conduct an in-depth analysis in his article and only simply state an argument without evidence and example. In addition, in terms of migration, Fargues (2011) endeavored to expose the relationship between demographic transition and international migration. In his article Fargues (2011) attempted to prove that the international migrants to some extent conveyed residents in origin countries ideas and benefits related to the transition from high to low fertility. Fargues’s argument actually adopted a cultural perspective to explore the effects of international idea circulation to demographic transition. However, Dyson missed this subtlety highlighted by Fargues and only analyzed the relationship between intercity migration at a domestic level. Essentially, this section of Dyson’s article is largely credible and arguable, while his argument would be more comprehensive if he refers to Romaniuk’s and Fargues’s findings.

Figure 4: Relationships between Gender Empowerment

Measure and Demographic Transition (Dyson, 2001)

Figure 5: Relationships between women’s educational

attainment and contraception use (Lutz, 2014)

Finally, when it comes to gender differentiation, Dyson briefly discussed the changes to position and behavior of women. According to Dyson (2001), women gradually would spend less time in childbearing and childrearing due to the fall in the birth rate, and they gained more time and incentives to choose own employment away from the household and their work patterns became more like men. Dyson (2001) exemplified his argument by statistics, as figure 4 shows, the level of gender equity would be higher following the process of demographic transition in different countries. Notably, Lutz (2014) emphasized the importance of Education, especially toward women, having significant effects on fertility decline. With regard to population policies, Lutz (2014) stated that female education might be the most effectual mechanism to promote the use of contraceptive, moreover, allowing women to pursue their own rights and interests. Lutz also provided statistics of nine countries in West Africa, as figure 5 shows, suggesting the significance of education strategies to demographic transition especially for countries that only begun this process. More instances could be found in Haub and Bribble’s (2011) article that discussed gender inequalities in Uganda and Guatemala. In Uganda, 20-year-old men (or older) mostly had higher education level than women. When it comes to decisions made within families, such as family size, men possess more power. On the other hand, in Guatemala, the issue of gender inequality had been greatly modified, especially for education attainment. According to Haub and Bribble (2011), 44 percent of married women would use modern contraception measures, to a large extent promoting the reduction of birth rate and demographic transition process in Guatemala. Hence it would seem apparent to substantiate that education and changes to the status of women are largely connected with demographic transition, as Dyson tried to prove in his article.

Conclusion

In conclusion, this essay has critically reviewed partial ideas in Dyson’s article by referring to relevant academic literature. It has to be claimed that Dyson fail to provide adequate and credible evidence to prove his argument in terms of demographic transition theory. By referring to articles of other scholars, this essay to some extent has exposed weak points in Dyson’s article. When it comes to urbanization and gender differentiation, Dyson’s arguments could be considered as arguable. This essay also provided supplementary information and examples highlighted by other scholars, which are actually efficient to demonstrate Dyson’s points further.

Reference List

• Dyson, T. (2001) ‘A partial theory of world development: the neglected role of the demographic transition in the shaping of modern society’, International Journal of Population Geography, 7(2), 67-90.
• Fargues, P. (2011) ‘International migration and the demographic transition: A two-way interaction’, International Migration Review, 45 (3), 588-614.

• Haub, C. and Gribble, J. (2011) ‘The world at 7 billion’, Population Bulletin, 66(2), 1-12.
• Kirk, D. (1996) ‘Demographic transition theory’, Population Studies, 50(3), 361-387.
• Lutz, W. (2014) ‘A population policy rationale for the Twenty-First Century’, Population and Development Review, 40(3), 527-544
• Romaniuk, A. (2011) ‘Persistence of High Fertility in Tropical Africa: The Case of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’, Population and Development Review, 37 (1), 1-28.
• Reher, D. S. (2004) ‘The demographic transition revisited as a global process’, Population, Space and Place, 10, 19-41.