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Best Court Area Shot Locations for Basketball Players

Info: 3439 words (14 pages) Assignment
Published: 11th Oct 2021 in Assignment

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Determining the best mid range shot location for left handed shooters through the statistics of professional basketball players

Introduction

This IA was heavily inspired through this quote by the greatest basketball player of all time known as Michael Jordan.

“Obstacles don’t have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don’t turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it.” Michael Jordan

This quote by Michael really resonated within me as I am considered short in the sport of basketball being a 5’4 male. Through my IA I am attempting to use statistics to find areas of the basketball court where I may have an advantage when it comes to scoring and playing defence in order to make up for my lack of size.

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For my IA I decided to investigate the sport of basketball which I am extremely passionate about. I have been playing basketball for fun since birth and have been playing organized basketball for the past 4 years of my life. Through my years of experience in the sport of basketball I am able to distinguish the connection between basketball and mathematics. Through my Internal Assessment I aim to determine if mathematical statistics and probability can be utilised in order to give me personally an advantage. These specific advantages being knowing the areas opponents are more likely to score from and where in theory I may have an advantage when it comes to scoring. Being a 5’4 male I am considered an undersized basketball player thus causing my game to rely heavily on my defensive ability in the midrange and my fade away jumper as well as precise catch and shoot ability. Through this IA my aim is to determine the areas on the court different sized opponents would be able to score on me at the highest percentage from thus showing to me the areas my defence would need to be much more aggressive and tight compared to other areas of the basketball floor. In addition to this I have taken the statistics of the best strictly left handed shooters in the NBA at each of the 4 height ranges I have created. The reason for this is because I myself am a left handed shooter and the statistics will be able to more clearly represent me as a basketball player compared to if I was to use right handed players who are considered a majority in the NBA. By analysing the probability of my opponents and I making a mid range shot at each of the 5 mid range locations I will be able to develop my game by knowing where I have a higher probability of scoring and where I would need to play better defensively.

In order to begin my investigation I gathered data on the midrange shot % of the best left handed players currently in the NBA at the 5 main midrange locations. By utilising the statistics of the best left handed NBA players at each of the 4 height ranges I will be able to analyse the statistics and know what aspects I can improve if I were competing against the best of the best. After gathering the data from various websites I determined the average shot % along with the population standard deviation of each of the 4 height ranges and 5 midrange shot locations. Next I determined the average shot % for each of the 4 height ranges at each of the 5 midrange shot locations. Finally by using the regression equation I am able to determine the probability that I myself as a 165cm tall left handed male am able to score a mid range shot from each of the 5 shot locations. This would theoretically tell me the areas I should aim to shoot from and where I may need more practice in order to develop my skills as a basketball player.

Fig 1. Diagram of an NBA court displaying all of the labeled 5 main mid range shot locations

Raw Data Table

Table 1. The Mid-Range Field Goal % was gathered for 3 NBA players for 4 varying heights. The 3 NBA players chosen at each height are considered the “best players at their respective heights, in order to reflect the statistics of basketball players at the most competitive level.

Height (cm)

NBA Player

Mid-Range Shot %

Long

Right Corner

Mid-Range Shot % Long Right Elbow

Mid-Range Shot % Long Straight

Mid-Range Shot % Long Left Elbow

Mid-Range Shot % Long Left Corner

183 - 191

John Wall

35.3

38.6

33.6

34.3

33.7

De’aaron fox

25.0

41.8

28.9

43.9

38.2

Mike Conley

35.7

39.2

41.9

42.0

42.0

193 - 201

James Harden

38.8

36.1

39.4

38.1

37.1

D’Angelo Russel

46.0

38.6

46.2

42.7

32.7

Shai Gilgeous Alexander

33.3

52.1

52.5

40.6

66.7

203 - 211

Marvin Bagely III

40.0

42.1

57.1

23.1

30.0

Domantas Sabonis

30.0

34.7

43.9

43.8

42.1

Julius Randle

20.7

30.9

32.2

38.7

23.8

213 - 221

Ivica Zubac

100

50.0

52.6

41.7

33.3

Joel Embiid

21.1

53.2

38.3

41.5

40.7

Kristaps Porzingis

45.6

36.5

46.5

36.9

41.5

Calculations for the Average Shot % for Each Height

In order to determine what height had the NBA players with the best Mid-Range shooters I calculated the average Mid-Range shot % for each of the 4 height ranges.

  μ=xn

μ =35.3+38.6+33.6+34.3+33.7+25.0+41.8+28.9+43.9+38.2+35.7+39.2+41.9+42.0+42.0 15

μ ≈ 36.9

 

Figure 1: Sample calculation calculating the average long mid range shot % for shooters between 183 cm and 191 cm

Calculations for the Population Standard Deviation of Shot % for Each Height

By also calculating the population standard deviation of shot % for each height I would be able to find out how consistent of a shooter the NBA players were at each of the 4 height ranges. The population standard deviation was used because it takes into account all of the data points within a sample rather than using the sample standard deviation which only takes into account certain data points within a data set.

σ=

σ=

σ ≈ 5.15

Figure 1: Sample calculation calculating the population standard deviation for long mid range shots shot by shooters between 183 cm and 191 cm

Table 2: The average mid range shot % and standard deviation for left handed professional NBA players from ranging heights

Height (cm)

Average Mid Range Shot %

Standard Deviation

182.88 - 191

36.9

5.15

193.04 - 200.66

42.7

8.62

203.2 - 210.82

35.5

9.40

213.36 - 220.98

45.3

16.6

Fig 1. A histogram displaying the average mid range shot % for each of the 4 different height ranges

By analysing both the table and graph it is evident that the height range with the best mid range shooting % is the 213.36cm-220.98cm height range. However this is also the height range with the highest standard deviation.

Calculating Average Shot % for Each Location

In order to determine the areas on the court I would have the best chance of making a midrange jumper I determined the average shot % for each of the 5 mid range locations on the court. This data also tells me the areas where my opponents would have a higher chance to score, forcing me to play heavier, much more aggressive defence in those locations.

μ =35.3+25.0+35.7+38.8+46.0+33.3+40.0+30.0+20.7+100+21.1+45.6 12

μ ≈ 39.3

Figure x: Sample calculation calculating the average long mid range shot % at the right corner

Calculating the Population Standard Deviation of Shot % for Each Location

The population standard deviation of shot % for each of the 5 locations was calculated in order to determine where shots taken were the most consistently scored.

σ=

σ ≈ 20.0

Figure x: Sample calculation calculating the population standard deviation for long mid range shots taken at the right corner

Table 3:

Shot Location

Average Mid Range Shot %

Standard Deviation

Long Right Corner

39.3

20.0

Long Right Elbow

41.2

6.80

Long Straight

42.8

8.39

Long Left Elbow

38.9

5.52

Long Left Corner

38.5

10.0

Fig 2. A bar graph displaying the average mid range shot % for each of the 5 different mid range shot locations.

By analysing both the table and graph it is evident that the height range with the best mid range shooting % is the 213.36cm-220.98cm height range. However this is also the height range with the highest standard deviation.

Calculating Average Shot % by Height For Each Location

One sentence explaining why you calculated this

μ =35.3+25.0+35.7 3

μ ≈ 32.0

Figure x: Sample calculation calculating the average long right corner shot % for shooters between 183 cm and 191 cm

Table 4:

Height (cm)

Average Shot % Long Right Corner

Average Shot % Long Right Elbow

Average Shot % Long Straight

Average Shot % Long Left Elbow

Average Shot % Long Left Corner

182.88 - 191

32.0

39.9

34.8

40.1

38.0

193.04 - 200.66

39.4

42.3

46.0

40.5

45.5

203.2 - 210.82

30.2

35.9

44.4

35.2

32.0

213.36 - 220.98

55.6

46.6

45.8

40.0

38.5

One sentence summarizing table

Calculating Probability of Making a Long Mid Range Shot for a basketball player who is 165cm Tall

This was done in order for me to understand where I myself as a 165cm tall male would theoretically have the best chance of the 5 shot locations to make a mid range shot. This would help me when I am deciding where to shoot from on the court in a 5v5 basketball game scenario.

Figure:

f(x) = 0.134x+13.1

f(?) ≈35.21%

∴ The probability of me as a 165cm tall basketball player making a long mid range shot is 35.21%

Figure x: Extrapolating the long mid range shot % for a basketball player who is 165cm tall

Calculating Probability of Making a Long Mid Range Shot from Each Location for Someone who is 165cm Tall

The probability of making a Mid Range Shot from the long right corner for me who is 165 cm Tall was done in order for me to identify the probability I would have of making a mid range shot from the long right corner.

Long Right Corner

Figure:

f(x) = 0.595x-80.7

f(?) ≈17.475%

∴ The probability of a 165cm tall shooter making a shot from the long right corner is 17.475%

Figure x: Extrapolating the long right corner shot % for a shooter who is 165 cm tall

Long Right Elbow

Figure:

f(x) = 0.0891x+23.2

f(?) ≈37.9015%

∴ The probability of a 165cm tall shooter making a shot from the long right elbow is 37.9015 %

Figure x: Extrapolating the long right elbow shot % for a shooter who is 165 cm tall

Long Straight

Figure:

f(x) = 0.312x-20.1

f(?) ≈31.38%

∴ The probability of a 165cm tall shooter making a shot from the long straight is 31.38 %

Figure x: Extrapolating the long straight shot % for a shooter who is 165 cm tall

Long Left Elbow

Figure:

f(x) = -0.136x+66.4

f(?) ≈43.96%

∴ The probability of a 165cm tall shooter making a shot from the long left elbow is 43.96 %

Figure x: Extrapolating the long left elbow shot % for a shooter who is 165 cm tall

Long Left Corner

Figure:

f(x) = -0.189x+76.6

f(?) ≈45.415%

∴ The probability of a 165cm tall shooter making a shot from the long left corner is 45.415 %

Figure x: Extrapolating the long left corner shot % for a shooter who is 165 cm tall

Add a sentence or two at the bottom here just saying that these calculations are not entirely accurate because of how low the R squared values are

Data doesn't fit trend line well because r square is low

Conclusion

Through the data collected a number of conclusions can be drawn. First off, through data collected it was determined that the height range with the best average mid range shot % is the 213.36 cm - 220.98 cm range (Refer to Table 2). The position traditionally played by the 213.36 cm - 220.98 cm height range is known as the center position. Centers today are usually skilled at close range shots and have an advantage when it comes to scoring mid range shots through their height and arm length. Most players who are not centers usually practice the 3pt shot while centers mainly focus on their mid range shot giving them an edge most of the time. Moving on, the mid range with the highest shooting % for left handed NBA players is the long straight shot, followed by the long right

References

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-current-nba-left-handed-players/ranker-nba

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/john-wall-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=de%27aaron+fox+shot+chart+career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/mike-conley-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/james-harden-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=d%27angelo+russel+shot+chart+career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=shai+gilgeous-alexander+shot+chart+career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/marvin-bagley-iii-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/domantas-sabonis-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/julius-randle-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/ivica-zubac-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/joel-embiid-shot-chart-career

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/kristaps-porzingis-shot-chart-career

http://www.planetofsuccess.com/blog/2017/inspirational-basketball-quotes/

 

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