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Impact Of Quantitative Easing On Investment Markets

A simple definition of Quantitative Easing (QE) is central bank issues money to other banks, the discharge by central bank of adequate funds to encourage activity in a banking system that has become slothful and produce an upgrading in the economy. This sometimes means printing money in order to provide banks more capital (Financial times dictionary, 2009).

The first remarkable handling of QE was by the bank of Japan in the early 2000’s and similar plans were used again in 2008 by the Federal Reserve to deal with the United States. QE is using to increase the money supply significantly only seen when interest rates have been already reduced to zero and when the government is still trying to stop credit crunch condition. Lower interest rates encourage people to spend, not to save but when interest rates can go no lower, a central bank only choice is to pump money into the economy directly. Printing money can be defined as the central bank financing of government debts this is caused in both 1920’s Germany and Zimbabwe and the British government insist it is not doing, even though the short term achieve is similar. But the banks believe this form of QE is altered because it’s a high risk strategy like old fashioned money printing, pumping too much money into the economy and causing high price rises, as seen in 1920’s Weimar Germany and modern day Zimbabwe. For example if QE works, credit growth will pack up and business will find it easier to get credit that, in turn should help to motivate the economy (BBC news channel, QE, 2009).

Abstract

My whole research report will explains about QE and its impact investors worry about the economy. In literature i have chosen three author who spoke about the investors and they are thinking about to invest in safe place like profitable markets and fearing about the deflation and inflation. In my methodology I have chosen to find out the reasons how to approach these thinks and what type of methodology need to put in practice I took face to face interview, population survey and focus groups to find out the answered. I used some systematic data like data gathering, data analysis and resource what i used in my research report.

Title

Impact of Quantitative Easing on investment markets

Research Question

How the Quantitative Easing is affecting investors, but getting the response for research question, needs to raise the other question such as how the investors worry about the deflation and inflation.

Literature Review

Many authors commented on QE effecting investors in different way but these three authors says about impact of QE on investment. Denise Law, 2009 said investors are pour money into gold markets, Paul Amery, 2009 told that same thing investors are trying to invest money into gold and silver markets and Jams Pexton, 2009 said that investors are looking for the safe way to invest before they invest the money into market they will look at the deflation and inflation. These three authors said same thing about investor QE and its impact on UK economy.

Denise Law, 2009 state that investors are looking for a safe place are turning to gold because of UK economy. But professional says there are no signs the strong feeling will end soon, investors are notice that get higher in gold prices as reflection of external factors such as inflationary worries rather than of supply and require essentials. The bell run gold prices follow a survey that was released earlier, which exposed that investors are showing more interest to put money into gold markets. The survey shows a general gift towards more stability particularly amid fears that the Bank of England’s QE programme will shows active inflation. However investors consider that the gold prices will persist to rise, continued by increasing investors’ enthusiasm for an asset class that is often shows its ability to perform well in times economic uncertainty in the UK. Suki Cooper an economist at Barclays said in many respects gold has proved its value with in UK portfolio at the end of last year when prices were falling across asset classes but gold prices did not fall and it allowed some investors to take profit and meet margin calls

Paul Amery, 2009 said that the suggestion of QE for corporate debt are a less clear, while central bank afraid in the countries would like to move forwards the credit spread between corporate and government bond yield lower, the scope for straight interference in the corporate bond markets is more limited. While Bank of England has particularly authorised such a move under its QE agenda the effect remain to be seen. One instant outcome of QE broadcast has been to push the currencies of all the countries implicated sharply lower. But some commentators have said that QE can allow competitive economy devaluation against your neighbours something incidentally, that there are certain to be discussions on this subject at G20 event beginning in London, though whether these will lead to any statements on economy policy remain to be seen. In any case investors with foreign currency publicity in a country committing to QE may wish to avoid losses. The clearest follow-on effect of Quantitative easing policies is likely to be seen in the government debt and currency markets. Government may well manage to dowel or restrict bond yields for a continued period. At the same time they are increasing the risk of currency depression, and they are possible to increase currency instability. Gold and silver investment stipulates is likely to stay strong while such policies continue. And the result on equities is uncertain, as it's unsure whether QE policies will renew the expansion on which divide prices depend.

James Pexton, 2009 said investors are getting worry about the economy deflation and inflation. It is too early to say whether the serious move towards QE will be successful, but its immediate contact appears to be inadequate. We imagine deflationary concerns to persist to overlook in 2009, but consider that accelerating inflation is likely to be a effective warning from 2010on wards. Deflation means value of economy fall down, deflation is a rare happening and once well-established, it becomes very complicated to get growth in an economic recovery. Therefore Central Banks are fearful of deflation, we guess Central Banks to fault on the side of doing too much and to carry on to enlarge programmes that speed up growth of the money deliver. Inflation means economy having certain value at present Inflation is a feasible option when the public debt stock is denominated in the nation’s own currency and mainly supposed in nature. Speedy inflation erodes the genuine value of any nominal liabilities and redistributes from the creditors to the borrowers, with the state frequently being one of the main beneficiaries. Whether an inflationary outcome is the outcome of a policy mistake or an intentional policy, we strongly believe it is worth thinking not only about the investment implications of near term deflation but also the risk significantly.

Methodology

The life of this planned study is investigative, rather than helpful, as not much literature has been shown on the subject of Quantitative Easing is affecting investors. This type of research will implement a stranded theory move towards developed by. According to them, stranded theory is the finding of theory from data and that is analytically obtained from research. The theory developed is imitative from data and then illustrated by the quality (Springer Netherlands, 1998)

A permutation of data collection method of face to face interview, population and focus groups will be used in the planned research. The face to face interview is a unstructured interview and comfortable type of interview meant to investigate in a general topic to be discussed and with face to face interview have benefit of being able to observe and record verbal and non verbal behaviour, however this interview can be conducted by phone or online and online interview offer the chance to conduct more interview within the same time. These approach also save the travel expenses and time. This interview will be conducted without any list of questions, even though clear supreme areas to search require to be recognized prior to the interview. In such data collection method, interviewee is given the chance to talk liberally about QE and its impact on UK economy (Cooper and Schindler, 2007, pg-204 to 207)

Population is the total collection of elements about which we wish to make some suggestion. A population is part of sampling the basic idea of sampling is that by selecting some of the elements in a population, we may draw the conclusion about the entire population. Most of the investors are choose samplings because it shows the cost, availability of population, accuracy of result and speed of data collection. For example the economic advantage of taking a sample rather than a sample is massive. Consider the cost of taking a poll. In 2000 due to a supreme court ruling requiring a poll even though statistical sampling techniques, the UK bureau of the poll increased its 2000 decennial poll budget estimate by £1,723 billion, to £4,512 billion. In any wonder that investors in all types of firms ask?why should we spend thousands of pounds interviewing all 4,000 employee in our company (Cooper and Schindler, 2007, pg-402 to 405)

Focus groups became widely used in research during the 1980’s and are used for increasingly various research applications today. A focus group is group of people, led by an educated diplomat, who meet 90 minutes to 2 hours. The facilitator or moderator uses group dynamics ethics to focus or guide in a swap of ideas, feeling and experiences on a exact topic (Cooper and Schindler, 2007, pg-146)

Data collection Methods

The research says the beginning of face to face interview with Ian Hally Director of the British insurance group Aviva Plc told in interview many investors are willing to invest in Asian property markets because next two years and is looking to improve the region’s share of its asset to 25% over the next 5 to 10 years. Aviva investors sees a healing in Asian property markets on real estate investment a lot of the markets across Asia investment chances are going to be attractive in 2010 and 2011. In interview with Ian hally was good because I haven’t prepared any questions but I have clear idea of areas to be enclosed in the discussion. The interview estimated to half an hour to 45 minutes but he has give enough time to discuss and he spoke to me with friendly nature however the conversation was good and got clear idea of investor’s behaviour (Eriko Amaha, 2009)

The survey conducted by the Nick Clark, 2009 Managing Director of the property investor show. Many of the investors are looking for safe place to invest before like real estate, gold and groceries but according to new survey the investor confidence in the UK and overseas property market has risen considerably in the last three months. Because the increase in confidence and changed desire in UK and overseas property has been signalled by reports that UK property prices have stabilized and the first signs of enduring job rises being reported. There has also been a strong move in the market with confidence UK investors commencement to re-explore overseas opportunities as they survey for investments with better returns than the other poor performing investment vehicles such as bank savings and the stock market,’ because the UK economy is slowly coming out from deflation this survey would easily say the population of investors and we can collect the each investor personal ideas and his opinions and this survey will recorded.

Focus groups are well known because they are experts in research to test reactions. A focus group sometimes called a ‘focus group interview’ is a group interview that focuses clearly upon a particular issue or topic and encompasses the need for interactive discussion amongst participants. They share the ideas, suggestions and tips for the particular topic these discussions conducted several times with similar participant to enable trends and patterns to be identified when the data collected and analysed (Lewis, P. Etal, 2009, pg-243 to 247)

Data analysis

This research proposes to use a mixture of qualitative and quantitative data analysis come within reach of data obtained through face to face interview, population and focus group will be analysed using the set of procedures from standard strategies approach of coding (Cooper and Schindler, 2006). These strategies approach is a systematic, advantage of the approach is that data analysis can be conducted in a less formalised and proceduralised manner while maintaining a systematic loom to reach certain strategy. Quantitative data refer to all such data and can be product of all research strategies, it can be shows from simple counts such as the frequency of occurrences to more complex data. Qualitative data refers all numeric data and data that have not been quantified and can be a product of all research strategies, it can variety from a short list of responses to open ended questions in an online questionnaire to more compound data (Lewis, P. Etal, 2009, pg- 414 and 480).

Resource requirement

The review of the literature will be got maximum from the journals and articles from the college library facilities like Emerald. The initiation of other work will get from usage of books and internet facilities from the college library books.

Conclusion and recommendations

Thus all the investors will be invest in all the markets and before they invest need to think about the economy deflation and inflation and this economic growth is not fixes always vary between country to country.

Time scale for prepare a Research report

Research Gantt chart (Week commencing 19th October 2009 to 28th December 2009)

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Bibliography

Cooper. DR, Schidnler.PM, 2006, Business Research Methods, Tata McGraw-Hill Edition

Lewis. P, Saunders. M, Thornhill. A, 2009, Research methods for business students, Pearson Education Limited, pg-243 to 247

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