A critical review of performance gaps

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To begin with, we must consider the fact that education is not a privilege but an ultimate right of an individual.1 In-fact, education is a chief element in the development and advancement of nations in a world which is dominated by competition, globalization and intense integration.1 Thus, the formation and fusion of abilities and human capital is an essential part of any approach towards growth. 1Also, in the modern age of today, education has become a fundamental requirement of countries all over the world in order for them to compete and grow.1

However, Pakistan has had to cope up with the same kind of obstacles that have hindered progress of the education division in other less developed nations as-well.1 Nonetheless, the government is still focused on achieving the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 2 which is aimed towards attaining Universal Primary Education by the year 2015.1 More specifically, the target is centered on accomplishing universal net primary enrolment "100% by 2015"1 and consequently boosting literacy "88% by 2015" 1and learning levels as-well.1

Furthermore, in-terms of the three key indicators that are used to measure the likelihood of reaching Goal 2 "net primary enrolment ratio, completion/survival rate in primary enrolment and literacy rate" 1 there is a considerable underperformance of attaining this target. This may be due to various reasons which will be explored in much detail during course of this research.

Therefore, the main reason for selecting this topic to review as a research is primarily based on the essence of education itself, and its important consequences on the economy as a whole.

Thus, with only half a decade left, Pakistan faces a somewhat bleak scenario towards achieving the MDGs. However, since the Millennium Declaration is described as "the most important promise ever made to the world's most vulnerable people"2 it is the duty of citizens of all countries to step up and make a change in the lives of the millions of people. For this reason, research such as this can prove to be highly useful in developing one's comprehension and grasp of the overall performance of the primary education sector in terms of the aforementioned basic indicators.

Also, this research can be used by policy makers alike to deliberate over the scarce resources, unfulfilled commitments, wandering focus and transparency, along with the poor amount of dedication to the overall processes of development2, that have constantly backtracked the government's efforts to achieve universal education over the years.

Background Information

At the time of the commencement of the 21st century a somewhat dismal picture was painted across the globe. In reality, more than eight hundred million adults were uneducated, around hundred million children were out of school, and there was strong, widespread prejudice against females in particular, while the value of education for children greatly suffered (Rena, 2007). It was during the period of such predicament that heads from various different countries decided to take action in the form of the 'Millennium Declaration' during the year 2000.3 This statement was adopted by almost 189 countries; which aimed to provide a stable game-plan to not only decide upon, but to achieve significant development goals by the year 2015.3

These eight goals have since become to be known as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) which are targeted towards achieving global human welfare; they aim to decrease poverty, promote universal primary education, eradicate gender disparity, limit child-mortality, improve maternal health, combat diseases, help to support the environment along with ensuring global partnership for overall development. 1 Since Pakistan is also a signatory to the Declaration it uses the MDGs as a guide towards establishing its nationwide development plans and strategies.3

However, with only half a decade remaining, nations are now becoming increasingly wary of their capacity to reach the MDG targets. 1 In-fact, over the last few years, several countries including Pakistan have faced tremendous trouble in trying to achieve these goals.

Therefore, Pakistan's Millennium Development Goals Report'10 (PMDGR) viewed the advancement of the MDG indicators within the context of the socio-economic and political trends prevalent in the country during the recent years, and observed a significant gap in the case of Goal 2 according to which the three indicators of achieving universal primary education "net primary enrolment ratio, completion/survival rate in primary and literacy rate"1 all showed a definite lag1 during the year 2008-09.

Problem Development

This research aims to conduct an indicator-wise, trend analysis of primary education in Pakistan. In-doing so, it allows one to review the past reforms and suggest adequate policies that should be undertaken with firm commitment at present, in-order to ensure that even-though the progress towards the MDGs has slowed down, it should not be allowed to become stagnant or even move in the opposite direction.1

In addition, since commitment towards the MDGs has become a global phenomenon, an assessment of the Goal 2 in the case of Pakistan can be generalized to other developing nations as-well. This is because these countries are characterized by similar socio-economic conditions and challenges that Pakistan faces in achieving these goals. In doing so, a thorough analysis of the variables that affect the key indicators and hence the performance of the MDGs in Pakistan can be applied, and the particular areas that require attention can be specified. Thus, the study can provide a platform to other developing nations in coming up with adequate measures that can help in achieving the MDGs.

Moreover, apart from the expanded scope of the study in terms of policy making and applicability, the research aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the problems that are pestering one, if not the most, important element of socio-economic development of our nation. Also, it provides sound insight into the present scenario of education in Pakistan, highlighting the key variables that affect the core indicators of performance of the primary education sector and forces individuals, officials, societies, organizations or even nations at large to reflect on how many lives are being destroyed by the denial of basic primary education and hence the erosion of the central building block of a child's life.

Therefore, this research represents an individual effort to raise awareness of primary education and its undisputed position as the foundation of our economy. It forces us to consider the fact that in our quest towards capital advancement, we have continually neglected the main factor that affects the independence, livelihood and sense of worth of our people; education.

Thus, this study can help explore the various issues in achieving universal primary education that are needed to be addressed today, the required actions that can change the lives of millions of people, and the relentless efforts which can prove to be extremely powerful in reversing the impending stagnation of the socio-economic progress of our country as well as other developing nations.

Problem Definition

The purpose of this study is to conduct a critical review of performance gaps and lags in achieving Millennium Development Goal 2 (i.e. achieving universal primary education by 2015) within the context of Pakistan.

Related Definitions

Variable Title

Glossary Definition

Operational Definition

Dependent Variables:

Literacy rate, between the age of 15-24 (Total, Male, Female)

"The percentage of the population aged 15-24 years who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on everyday life." (Official MDG Indicator, 2008)

"The percentage of the population aged 15-24 years who can both read and write with understanding a short simple statement on everyday life." (Official MDG Indicator, 2008)

Net enrolment rate. Primary. (Total, Male, Female)

"The number of children of official primary school age who are enrolled in primary education as a percentage of the total children of the official school age population." (Official MDG Indicator, 2008)

"The number of children of official primary school age who are enrolled in primary education as a percentage of the total children of the official school age population." (Official MDG Indicator, 2008)

Primary completion rate. (Total, Male, Female)

"The total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education regardless of age, expressed as percentage of the total population of the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary." (Official MDG Indicator, 2008)

"The total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education regardless of age, expressed as percentage of the total population of the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary." (Official MDG Indicator, 2008)

Independent Variables:

Rate of primary school children out of school (Total, Male, Female)

"Percentage of primary-school-age children not enrolled in primary school." (UNESCO, 2010)

"Percentage of primary-school-age children not enrolled in primary school." (UNESCO, 2010)

Repetition rate in primary. (Total, Male, Female)

"Proportion of children who remained in the same grade of primary school for two consecutive years." (UNICEF, 2010)

"Proportion of children who remained in the same grade of primary school for two consecutive years." (UNICEF, 2010)

Dropout rates

"Children who leave schools before completion of a school cycle." (Mansory, 2007)

"Children who leave schools before completion of a school cycle." (Mansory, 2007)

Rural/Urban disparity

For the purpose of the research, it is measured in terms of literacy rates (for 10 years and above) in both rural and urban areas (MDGR, 2010)

Quality issues/constraints

For the purpose of the research, it is measured in-terms of number and relevance of textbooks available to primary schools. (Ardt et al., 2005)

Distance from school

The distance from a child's home to his/her school (Baluch and Shahid 2009)

The distance from a child's home to his/her school (Baluch and Shahid 2009)

Public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP

The expenditure by the government on education as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. (PMDGR, 2010)

The expenditure by the government on education as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product. (PMDGR, 2010)

Trained teaching staff in primary schools

The percentage of trained teachers in primary schools. (UNESCO, 2010)

The percentage of trained teachers in primary schools. (UNESCO, 2010)

Pupil Teacher Ratio. Primary

"The number of pupils enrolled in primary school divided by the number of primary school teachers." (World Bank, 2010)

"The number of pupils enrolled in primary school divided by the number of primary school teachers." (World Bank, 2010)

Number of trained female teachers in primary schools.

The fraction of trained female teachers in primary schools (PMDGR, 2010) Or

"The number of trained female teachers divided by the number of trained male teachers in primary schools." Also known as Gender Parity Index of percentage of trained teachers.

(UNESCO, 2010)

For the purpose of the research, it is measured as "the number of trained female teachers divided by the number of trained male teachers in primary schools." Also known as Gender Parity Index of percentage of trained teachers.

(UNESCO, 2010)

Per capita income/GDP

Average household income (Baluch and Shahid, 2009) Or

"Gross domestic product divided by mid-year population." (UNESCO, 2010)

For the purpose of the research, it is measured as "Gross domestic product divided by mid-year population." (UNESCO, 2010)

Poverty

The "proportion of population living below $1 per day" (Official MDG Indicator, 2008) Or the "Share of poorest quintile in national consumption" (Official MDG Indicator, 2008) Or the "total percentage of population below national poverty line." (UNESCO, 2010)

For the purpose of the research, it is measured as the "total percentage of population below national poverty line." (UNESCO, 2010)

Rate of urbanization

"Share of urban population in total population of a province" (Pasha, Ismail and Iqbal, 1996)

"Share of urban population in total population of a province" (Pasha, Ismail and Iqbal, 1996)

Socio-cultural factors

For the purpose of the research, it is measured as "the number of females divided by the number of males in primary schools." also known as Gender Parity Index in primary level enrollment. (UNESCO, 2010)

Definitional Concerns and Issues.

While Rural/Urban disparity plays a major role in the overall performance evaluation of the primary education sector; there is no official, standard definition regarding it. For this purpose, in the research this variable will be measured in terms of the literacy rates (10 years and above) in both rural and urban areas (PMDGR, 2010). In-doing so, one can get an insight regarding the inequalities of resources etc in two different segments of the society that translate into diverse enrolment and literacy levels.

Also, for the purpose of the research, the broadly defined quality issues (Ardt et al., 2005) has been broken down and measured in terms of number and relevance of textbooks available to primary schools. In addition, the number of trained female teachers is measured in terms of GPI of percentage of trained teachers (UNESCO, 2010) in order to give more substance to the variable under consideration. Moreover, instead of viewing per capita income as average household income (Baluch and Shahid, 2009), a more regular definition is adopted of GDP per capita (UNESCO, 2010).

Furthermore, among the three different glossary definitions of poverty; the last one is chosen. This measures poverty in terms of the national poverty line (UNESCO, 2010), as explained above. Most importantly, since socio-cultural factors are all-encompassing, no standard definition within this context was available. Thus, in the research this variable would be measured entirely on basis of its effect; which is on the gender parity of primary school enrolment (UNESCO, 2010).

Literature Review

The abundant amount of literature on universal primary education suggests a kaleidoscope of factors that affect its overall performance. According to the Millennium Development Goals Report (2010), the biggest obstacle to universal primary education in developing countries is poverty. The report analyzes household data for around 42 nations, which shows that poverty exasperates the socio-economic inequalities, such as rural/urban and gender disparities which contribute to the high amount of out-of-school children within such areas.

In-fact, Arif, Saqib and Zahid (1999) also conducted a logit model based study on data retrieved by the Pakistan Socio-economic survey (PSES) and concluded that parent's literacy, urban households, male students, household income and remittances contributed positively to the level of enrolment in primary schools. Whereas, poverty proved to be completely independent of household income; and showed a substantial amount of negative influence on the level of enrolment for both boys and girls, unlike household income.

Moreover, the Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report (2010), additionally reaffirms the crucial role of poverty in negatively impacting the level of primary school enrolment rates in Pakistan. It even highlights other significant factors that prove to be major obstacles in achieving the targeted goals of MDG 2 in Pakistan, which include; poor quality of education, opportunity cost of education, incompetent teaching staff, lack of female teachers in rural regions, illiteracy of parents, along with an ineffective expenditure by the government on education and the perpetual governance problems. All these factors have been classified by Ardt et al. (2005) as-well, into two large categories of equity/access and quality issues that impede primary education development; where poverty, rural/urban disparity in enrolment and gender inequality in completion rates fall in the category of equity issues. Whereas, quality issues or constraints include lack of formal education institutions, insufficient teacher training, poor curriculum, and missing facilities etc as-well. Mohanty (1985) in his research of universal primary education in India, also narrowed down the constraints to almost the same factors mentioned above which include poverty of parents, unsuitable curriculum, ineptitude of teachers and lack of accessibility to schools etc.

What's more, one of the most important issues plaguing the achievement of MDG 2 in Pakistan is the strong aspect of gender disparity. In-fact, Baluch and Shahid (2009) used a Probit model on primary records of gender-based enrollment in Pakistan and concluded that both distance to school and family size influenced strongly, albeit negatively the enrolment of both sexes at primary level. Whereas, per capita income contributed positively to both genders, but significantly to boys enrolment and insignificantly to girls enrolment, thus proving to be primary source of gender disparity at primary education, as highlighted above.

In addition, Bray (1983) pointed out both in-school and out of school factors that were responsible for the poor levels of education indicators in rural areas of Pakistan. Among the in-school factors, the inadequacy of classrooms, lack of textbooks and trained teachers, along with a poor pay system contributed not only to low levels of attendance of students but greater teacher absenteeism as-well. The out-of-school factors, which may be deemed more important, are the high opportunity cost of education, large family sizes, and the omnipotent socio-cultural factors which contributed to the low levels of literacy, particularly for girls. (Bray, 1983)

Also, the UN report titled 'Toward Universal Primary Education: Investments, Incentives, and Institutions' (2005), suggests that there are language and geographic impediments that also intensify the low levels of completion in primary schools; such type of ethno-linguistic diversity is present in Balochistan where strong language barriers adversely affect the admittance to education, especially for girls.

The high dropout rates in primary education which were identified by the Millennium Development Goals Report (2010), were also explored by Mansory (2007) who used a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods in his research of primary schools in Afghanistan. He deduced from his analysis, that dropout rates were positively related to the number of refugees, poverty, poor teaching and learning environment, and opportunity cost, but negatively related to number of students per class, the size of school and regular supervision of schools.

There are numerous studies that draw attention to the key affect of socio-cultural factors on the overall functioning of the primary sector. To name a few, Gadgil and Landekar (as cited in Mohanty, 1985) indicated that the main reasons for the rising drop out and repetition rates were purely socio-cultural. This fact was even supported by Rena (2007), who discovered that dropout rates were far more dominant for girls as compared to boys. Also, Ardt et al. (2005) found that children with inferior socio-economic background were around 20% less expected to get education as compared to other children.

Pasha, Ismail and Iqbal (1996), categorized five vital demand and supply side factors that contributed towards the diminished primary continuation rates in Pakistan. On the demand side, per capita income, rate of urbanization and female literacy determined the level of continuation. Whereas on the supply side, availability of schools had the biggest impact on continuation especially for girls; and availability of teachers had the highest impact on continuation for boys.

Statement of Study Objectives

Variable list.

Variables

Expected Sign With the Dependant Variable(s)

Rate of primary school children out of school (Total, Male, Female)

-

Repetition rate in primary.

(Total, Male, Female)

-

Dropout rates

-

Rural/Urban disparity

-

Quality issues/constraints

-

Distance from school

-

Public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP

+

Trained teaching staff in primary schools

+

Pupil Teacher Ratio. Primary

-

Number of trained female teachers in primary schools.

+

Per capita income/GDP

+

Poverty

-

Rate of urbanization

-

Socio-cultural factors

-

INDEPENDENT VARIABLES

Public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP

(PMDGR, 2010)1

The expenditure by the government on education as a percentage of GDP

Quality issues/constraints

(Ardt et al., 2005)8

The number and relevance of textbooks available to primary schools

Rural Urban disparity

(MDGR, 2010)2

Literacy rates (for 10 years and above) in both rural and urban areas

Rate of primary school children out of school (Total, Male, Female)

(UNESCO, 2010)4

Percentage of primary-school-age children not enrolled in primary school.

Dropout rates

(Mansory, 2007)7

The children who leave schools before completion of a school cycle.

Repetition rate in primary.

(Total, Male, Female)

(UNICEF, 2010)6

The proportion of children who remained in the same grade of primary school for two consecutive years.

Per capita Income/GDP

(UNESCO, 2010)4

Gross domestic product divided by mid-year population.

DEPENDENT VARIABLE(S)

Trained teaching staff (UNESCO, 2010)4

The percentage of trained teachers in primary schools.

Number of trained female teachers

(UNESCO, 2010)4

The number of trained female teachers divided by the number of trained male teachers in primary schools/ GPI of percentage of trained teachers.

Pupil Teacher Ratio. Primary

(World Bank, 2010)11

The number of pupils enrolled in primary school divided by the number of primary school teachers.

Poverty

(UNESCO, 2010)4

the total percentage of population below national poverty line.

Rate of urbanization

(Pasha, Ismail and Iqbal, 1996)5

Share of urban population in total population of a province

Socio-cultural factors

(UNESCO, 2010)4

The number of females divided by the number of males in primary schools/Gender Parity Index in primary level enrollment.

PERFORMANCE OF

MDG #2 IN PAKISTAN

Literacy rate, between the age of 15-24 (Total, Male, Female)

(Official MDG Indicator, 2008)10

The percentage of the population aged 15-24 years who can both read and write.

Net enrolment rate. Primary.

(Total, Male, Female)

(Official MDG Indicator, 2008)10

The number of children of official primary school age who are enrolled in primary education as a percentage of the total children of the official school age population

Primary completion rate,

(Total, Male, Female)

(Official MDG Indicator, 2008)10

The total number of new entrants in the last grade of primary education, expressed as percentage of the total population of the theoretical entrance age to the last grade of primary.

Theoretical Framework.

Distance from school

(Baluch and Shahid 2009)9

The distance from a child's home to his/her school

Variable Reference List.

Variable Title

Reference

Dependent Variables:

Literacy rate, between the age of 15-24 (Total, Male, Female)

10Millennium Development Goals Indicators. (2008). United Nations Statistics Division. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx

Net enrolment rate. Primary. (Total, Male, Female)

10Millennium Development Goals Indicators. (2008). United Nations Statistics Division. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx

Primary completion rate. (Total, Male, Female)

10Millennium Development Goals Indicators. (2008). United Nations Statistics Division. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx

Independent Variables:

Rate of primary school children out of school (Total, Male, Female)

4United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Repetition rate in primary. (Total, Male, Female)

6 United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund. (2009). UNICEF, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://www.unicef.org/bangladesh/Tables_14.pdf

Dropout rates

7Mansory, A. (2007). Drop out Study in Basic Education Level of Schools in Afghanistan. Swedish Committee for Afghanistan (SCA), Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.swedishcommittee.org/liquidsite/content/265/DO_Study_Report.pdf

Rural/Urban disparity

2United Nations. (2010). The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010, from http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDG%20Report%202010%20En%20r15%20-low%20res%2020100615%20-.pdf

Quality issues/constraints

8Ardt, K., et al. (2005). Report on Primary Education in Bangladesh: Challenges and Successes. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://ih.stanford.edu/rosenfield/resources/Primary%20Education%20in%20Bangladesh.pdf

Distance from school

9Baluch, M. H., & Shahid, S. (2009). Measuring gender disparity at primary school level in Pakistan. International NGO Journal Vol. 4 (5), pp. 180-189, Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.academicjournals.org/INGOJ/PDF/Pdf2009/May/Baluch%20and%20Shahid.pdf

Public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP

1United Nations Development Program. (2010). Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2010. Retrieved November 15, 2010, from http://undp.org.pk/images/publications/mdgr2010.pdf

Trained teaching staff in primary schools

4United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Pupil Teacher Ratio. Primary

11The World Bank. (2010). Data indicators. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.PRM.ENRL.TC.ZS/countries

Number of trained female teachers in primary schools.

4United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Per capita income/GDP

4United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Poverty

4United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Rate of urbanization

5Pasha, H.A., Ismail, H.I., & Iqbal, M.A. (1996) Continuation Rates in Primary Education: A study of Pakistan. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.spdc.org.pk/pubs/rr/rr9.pdf

Socio-cultural factors

4United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

Theoretical Justification.

The aim of this research is determine the key factors that affect the performance of Millennium Development Goal 2 i.e. achieving universal primary education by 2015, within the context of Pakistan. The aforementioned theoretical framework helps illustrate this inquisition. Since the United Nations has itself listed three official indicators that reflect the overall functioning towards this goal; which include the literacy rate, between the age of 15-24, primary net enrolment rate and the primary completion rate. These three indicators can be considered as dependent variables through which the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan can be assessed.

However, there are numerous independent variables that affect these dependent variables and hence the performance of MDG 2 in our country. In-order to increase our own comprehension, we can view them in-terms of three large categories; demand side factors, supply side factors and other indicators. The demand side independent variables are essentially, poverty, rate of urbanization, socio-cultural factors and per capital income/GDP. The first three have a negative relationship with the performance of MDG 2; this is because as each one of them increases, ceteris paribus, the level of enrolments, completion in primary schooling and consequently youth literacy decreases. On the other hand, per capita income/GDP has a positive relationship with all three dependent variables and hence, performance.

The supply side factors include trained teaching staff, number of trained female teachers, distance from school, pupil teacher ratio, quality issues/constraints, and public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP. An increase in trained teaching staff, number of trained female teachers, and public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP, leads to an increase in the value of education in both transmission and reception, and hence the raises the performance of MDG 2. However, greater distance from school, higher pupil teacher ratio and potential quality constraints act as significant hurdles in the way of enrolment, continuation and literacy and thus contribute adversely to the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

Moreover, the other indicators include rural/urban disparity, rate of primary school children out of school, repetition rates in primary schools and dropout rates. All four signify an unconstructive manifestation of performance and advancement of MDG 2 in our country. Hence, an increase in either one of them reflects a weakening enrolment, continuation and literacy scenario in primary schooling and thus showcases by and large, a negative relationship with the MDG 2 performance.

Objectives.

To study the impact of repetition rate in primary schools on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of the rate of primary school children out of school on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of dropout rates on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of rural urban disparity on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of socio-cultural factors on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of per capita income/GDP on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of poverty on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of distance from school on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

To study the impact of trained teaching staff on the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan, measured through Literacy rate between the age of 15-24, Net enrolment rate. Primary, and Primary completion rate.

Hypothesis.

H0 = There is no relationship between repetition rate in primary schools and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between repetition rate in primary schools and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between rate of primary school children out of school and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between rate of primary school children out of school and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between dropout rates and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between dropout rates in primary schools and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between rural urban disparity and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between rural urban disparity and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between socio-cultural factors and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between socio-cultural factors and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between per capita income/GDP and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between per capita income/GDP and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between poverty and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between poverty and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between distance from school and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between distance from school and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

H0 = There is no relationship between trained teaching staff and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

H0: ρ = 0

HA= There is a relationship between trained teaching staff and the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan.

HA: ρ≠ 0

Elements of Research Design

Type of Research:

My research is essentially, applied research. This is because of the fact that in conducting a logical and in-depth evaluation of the vital factors that are shaping the performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan; I would be applying the results of the findings to solve the gaps and lags inherent in the execution of MDG 2 within our country.

Study Setting:

The research is to be conducted under non-contrived or natural settings.

Nature of Data:

The research will be using time series data collection method, whereby an indicator-wise trend analysis would be conducted for various variables in Pakistan.

Unit of Analysis:

In-order to fulfill the objectives of the research, the indicators and variables that would be analyzed, are specifically from Pakistan. Hence, the unit of analysis will be country-specific and based on Pakistan, explicitly.

Reference Period:

The reference period will be of a full decade, from the year 2000 to the year 2010.

Data reliability and sources of potential biases:

The data will be collected principally from UNESCO, The World Bank and the official list of Millennium Development Goals indicators provided by the United Nations. While all of these data sources are secondary in nature, they are each from globally recognized and acclaimed institutions of statistics and are hence highly reliable. However, in terms of likely biases, there may be a potential problem of unavailability of latest figures, and possible variability in the definition of certain terms.

Statement of Analytical Approach:

In-order to come up with the results of the findings, econometric modeling shall be used. However, within this type of modeling, either distributed lag model can be used or the standard OLS method can be used. In the case of the distributed lag model, the current value of dependent variable(s) can be analyzed as a function of the current and past values of independent variables. Whereas, the standard OLS method can also be applied that would enable one to run multiple regressions between the dependent(s) and independent variables, in-order to determine the relationship between them.

Expected Nature of findings

In light of previous works conducted to determine the advancement towards achieving MDG 2, this research will build on both, the main factors outlined by the annual Millennium Development Goals reports along with various other factors obtained from ample literature, which are equally, if not more, important in their impact on the overall performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan. What's more, it is expected, that poverty, rural urban disparities, socio-cultural factors, quality issues, per capita income/GDP and public expenditure on education as percentage of GDP would prove to have a superiorly significant affect on the level of performance of MDG 2 in Pakistan today and in the future.

Expected Limitations and Delimitations

During the course of my research, I may find certain constraints such as the unavailability of latest figures, and the possible variability in the definition of certain terms. Moreover, in illustrating the differences between the actual and targeted Millennium Development Goal 2 indicators over the years, there may be scarcity of data for annual targets for each indicator. In addition, this data deficiency may also arise in the case of measuring distance from school in the case of remote areas of our country.

References & Bibliography

Ardt, K., et al. (2005). Report on Primary Education in Bangladesh: Challenges and Successes. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://ih.stanford.edu/rosenfield/resources/Primary%20Education%20in%20Bangladesh.pdf

Arif, G.M., Saqib, N. U., & Zahid, G.M. (1999) Poverty, Gender, and Primary School Enrolment in Pakistan. The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 979-992. Retrieved November 18, 2010 from http://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v38y1999i4p979-992.html

Baluch, M. H., & Shahid, S. (2009). Measuring gender disparity at primary school level in Pakistan. International NGO Journal Vol. 4 (5), pp. 180-189, Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.academicjournals.org/INGOJ/PDF/Pdf2009/May/Baluch%20and%20Shahid.pdf

Bray, M. (1983). Universal education in Pakistan: A perpetually elusive goal? JSTOR. International Review of Education. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.jstor.org/pss/3443888

Mansory, A. (2007). Drop out Study in Basic Education Level of Schools in Afghanistan. Swedish Committee for Afghanistan (SCA), Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.swedishcommittee.org/liquidsite/content/265/DO_Study_Report.pdf

Millennium Development Goals Indicators. (2008). United Nations Statistics Division. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/Metadata.aspx

Mohanty, S.B. (1985) Universalization of Primary Education in India: Lessons of experience and pointers for action. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0006/000664/066409eo.pdf

Pasha, H.A., Ismail, H.I., & Iqbal, M.A. (1996) Continuation Rates in Primary Education: A study of Pakistan. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from http://www.spdc.org.pk/pubs/rr/rr9.pdf

Rena, R. (2007). Factors affecting the Enrollment and the retention of students at Primary Education in Andhra Pradesh - A Village Level Study. Munich Personal RePEc Archive. Retrieved November 13, 2010 from

http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/10763/1/MPRA_paper_10763.pdf

The World Bank. (2010). Data indicators. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.PRM.ENRL.TC.ZS/countries

UN Millennium Project. (2005). Toward Universal Primary Education: Investments, Incentives, and Institutions. Task force on Education and Gender Equality. Retrieved November 7, 2010 from http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/documents/Education-complete.pdf

3United Nations Development Program Pakistan. (2010). The Millennium Development Goals. Retrieved November 18, 2010, from http://undp.org.pk/global-mdgs.html

1United Nations Development Program. (2010). Pakistan Millennium Development Goals Report 2010. Retrieved November 15, 2010, from http://undp.org.pk/images/publications/mdgr2010.pdf

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization. (2010). UNESCO Institute for Statistics. Retrieved November 25, 2010 from http://stats.uis.unesco.org/unesco/TableViewer/tableView.aspx

United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund. (2009). UNICEF, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey. Retrieved December 5, 2010 from http://www.unicef.org/bangladesh/Tables_14.pdf

2United Nations. (2010). The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010, from http://www.un.org/millenniumgoals/pdf/MDG%20Report%202010%20En%20r15%20-low%20res%2020100615%20-.pdf

Appendix

Proposed Table of Contents.

Abstract

Acknowledgments

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Overview

1.2 Trends and Practices

1.3 Problem Development

1.4 Managerial and Academic concerns

1.5 Research/Study Objectives

1.6 Related Definitions/Definition Concerns

Chapter 2

Literature Review

2.1 A trend profile of Millennium Development Goal 2's official indicators performance

2.2 Factors affecting the performance of Millennium Development Goal 2 (MDG 2)

2.21 Poverty

2.22 Socio-cultural factors

2.23 Per capita income

2.24 Quality constraints

2.25 Rural urban disparities

2.26 Public expenditure on education

2.3 An evaluation of policy implications

2.4 Future outlook for advancement towards MDG 2

2.5 Potential recommendations to speed progress towards MDG 2

Chapter 3

Methodology/ Analytical choice

3.1 Research type

3.2 Data type and Reference period

3.3 Research Hypothesis

3.4 Theoretical framework

3.4.1 Theoretical justification

3.5 Data selection and related procedures

3.5.1 Data sources

3.5.2 Data Reliability and internal consistency

Chapter 4 Estimation, Analyses and Conclusion

4.1 Estimation Results

4.2 Analysis of findings

4.3 Limitations of the study

4.4 Conclusion

4.5 Direction for further research

References

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