Terrorism In Southeast Or South Asia Criminology Essay

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September 11, 2001 or 9/11 as commonly known, changes the entire worlds perspective on terrorism and the security of a nation-state. The focus on terrorism took a shift from the Middle East to Asia region, in particular South-East Asia when the terrorist attack on the World Trade Centre in New York rippled off many strong aftershocks in particular the series of bombings in Manila on 30 December 2000, the terrorist plot uncovered by Singapores Internal Security Department (ISD) in January 2002 and the Bali Bombing on October 12, 2002. These terrorist attacks or plans have four distinct purposes which are (1) posing a threat to a nation-state or region, (2) causing great destruction on economy, (3) dividing the people causing social unrest, and (4) spreading 'ideological' message across to gain greater support especially people (Muslim or not) with extreme and radical thinking. These purposes presented a whole new perspective on the terrorism threat and risk posted to any nation-state.

Then Deputy Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong when speaking at the IRCC Forum on 4 April 2003, said "What if the terrorists had succeeded? Supposing the bombs had gone off, and innocent Singaporeans had been killed. What would have happened to our racial harmony? Then whatever we said about this being the work of a tiny extremist minority, there would have been heightened distrust and fear among the different communities. We could easily have had racial incidents, leading to retaliation and counter-retaliation. Overnight this would undo 40 years of building a multi-racial society." [1] . This statement deeply captured the worries posted to a nation-state due to terrorism. This essay intend to discuss on (1) the difference between threat and risk in particular on terrorism, (2) who are the threat in South-East Asia in particular Indonesia, and (3) the threat situation in Indonesia in the immediate, mid and long term.

THREAT AND RISK

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Threat by definition refers to an action or statement declare by a person or group which will cause harm or damage to life and, or infrastructure. Covering threat in the context of a nation-state, there are broadly six type of threats:

Economic threat due to economy instability and financial crisis.

Social threat due to civil unrest and unstable social fabrics.

Military threat due to the unbalance in military power and territorial dispute.

Political threat on government due to internal riots and external sanction.

Environmental threat due to natural disaster and global warming.

Terrorist threat due to destructive action carried out by a group to archive a particular motive.

Zooming into terrorism, terrorist threat will be the who, what, where and how terrorist groups or individual intend to carry out an action that will cause harm and damage to life and infrastructure. In the Assessing and Managing the Terrorism Threat written by Col. Joel Leson, he look at terrorist threat from the degree of combination of the following six factors:

"Existence which look at if a terrorist group is present, or is able to gain access to a given locality,

Capability which look at the capability of a terrorist group to carry out an attack has been assessed or demonstrated,

Intent which look at evidence of terrorist group activity, including stated or assessed intent to conduct terrorist activity,

History which look at demonstrated terrorist activity in the past,

Targeting which look at the current credible information or activity exists that indicates preparations for specific terrorist operations with intelligence collection by a suspect group, preparation of destructive devices, other actions, and

Security environment which indicates if and how the political and security posture of the threatened jurisdiction affects the capability of terrorist elements to carry out their intentions." [2] 

These six factors will help any nation-state to assess the level or probability of terrorist threat which ranges from Critical (Highest) to Negligible (Lowest). By knowing the terrorist threat level, nation-state can now better prepare themselves in term of counter-terrorism procedure, doctrines, equipment, training and education. However threat alone only provide the likelihood and possible location a terror act will occur but it does not give any indication on the consequences the terror act will cause.

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Risk, on the other hand, measure the probability, vulnerability and criticality should a terror act happen. Probability consists of the likelihood of a terror act occurring and the vulnerability of the intended targets. Criticality refers to the terror act's consequences. Therefore by putting risk in the context of terrorism, risk will be the function of the terrorists' threat, targets' vulnerability and the terrorists' terror act consequences. The three main components which aid in the risk determination are:

Risk Assessment. Risk assessment measures the probability, vulnerability and criticality of terrorists' threat. The level of assessment for probability covers that of the six threat factor taken from the Assessing and Managing the Terrorism Threat by Col. Joel Leson [3] and a combination of vulnerability level that range from:

Critical (5). Where existence, capability and targeting are present. History and intentions may not be. Targets are weak with extremely high success rate.

High (4). Existence, capability, history, and intentions are present. Targets are weak with high success rate.

Medium (3). Existence, capability, and history are present. Intention may not be. Moderate targets with medium success rate.

Low (2). Existence and capability are present. History may not be. Strong targets with low success rate.

Negligible (1). Existence or capability may not be present. Strong targets with no success rate.

As stated in the RAND Corporation monograph series, Estimating Terrorism Risk by Henry H. Willis, Andrew R. Morral, Terrence K. Kelly and Jamison Jo Medby "Vulnerability can be articulated as the probability that an attack of a given type will be successful once it has been launched." [4] Therefore under vulnerability, the risk assessment looks at the target's weakness and the success rate should a terror act occurred. For example, should a terrorist risk is on a hotel vis-a-vis a military camp, the former vulnerability will be higher as it is being assessed as weaker, softer (security aspect) and higher success rate as compare to a security tighten military camp.

For criticality, the risk assessment looks at the magnitude of damage resulting from any successful terrorist attack. The level of criticality will range from:

"Extreme (5). Substantial loss of life or irreparable, permanent, or prohibitive costly repair to a facility. Lack of, or loss of, a system or capability would provide invaluable advantage to the adversary (press coverage, the political advantage or tactical advantage to carry out further plans).

High (4). Serious and costly damage to a facility or a positive effect for the adversary. No loss of life.

Medium (3). Disruptive to facility operations for a moderate period of time; repairs, although costly, would not result in significant loss of facility capability. No loss of life.

Low (2). Some minor disruption to facility operations or capability; does not materially advantage the enemy. No loss of life.

Negligible (1). Insignificant loss or damage to operations or budget. No loss of life.." [5] 

Extreme or High criticality level requires any nation-states' organisation to pay detailed attention especially when the probability is also in the critical and high level. Assessing the two levels would give us the five risk assessment level of Catastrophic (C), Extremely High (EH), High (H), Medium (M) and Low (L). Table 1 summaries the relationship between the probability and criticality level in risk assessment. This would entails counter terrorism measures to mitigate the identified risk, which bring about the other aspect of risk called the Risk Management.

Probability/ Vulnerability (V)

Negligible (1)/ V: Soft

Success Rate (SR): No

Low (2)/ V: Soft

SR: Low

Medium (3)/ V: Moderate SR: Medium

High (4)/ V: Weak

SR: High

Critical (5)/

V: Weak SR: Ex High

Criticality

Extreme (5)

H

H

EH

C

C

High (4)

H

H

EH

C

C

Medium (3)

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M

M

H

EH

EH

Low (2)

L

M

M

H

H

Negligible (1)

L

L

M

H

H

Table 1. Risk Assessment: Relationship Between Probability, Vulnerability and Criticality

Risk Management. This is the process of developing control measures and making risk decisions so as to control and mitigate the consequences that terrorist threat caused. The control measures seen by Col. Joel Leson is "set of countermeasure packages that recommend appropriate actions as follows:

Risk averse package. The preferred option, unconstrained by financial or political considerations. This package provides a point of reference for the expenditure necessary to minimize risk most effectively. This option is designed to reduce risk to the greatest degree possible.

Risk tolerant package. The option that strikes a balance between the needs of security and protection and the financial and political constraints of a state or municipality.

Risk acceptance package. The least desired option, which typically reflects the highest acceptable amount of risk, but represents the least possible cost." [6] 

It can be seen that many nation-states have adopted the above mentioned packages after assessing the risk level. For example infrastructures like oil refineries, embassies, international or domestic airport, train stations, and many more which risk assessment are rated as catastrophic, extremely high or even high, the countermeasures are usually comprehensive and detailed.

Having gone through what terrorist threat and risk encompasses, their relationship is somewhat interdependent. Without threat, it will not be possible to assess what is the risk and manage it accordingly. Vice versa without risk, it will not be threat but rather actual act of terror causing catastrophic damages to the economic and social aspect of a nation-state. Therefore since the 9/11 incident, government organisations especially military and homeland security agencies looks into the possible terrorist threats and assess the risk associated. Many proactive steps and measures are taken to counter possible threats and risk involves, which heavily relies on intelligence and preventive security measures.

WHO ARE THE THREAT IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA IN PARTICULAR INDONESIA

There are strong evidences that South-East Asia (S.E.A) is becoming the world second largest base for radical Islamist and terrorist groups behind Middle East, in particular those in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. As mentioned in a congressional research report titled Terrorism in Southeast Asia, "Many of these groups threaten the status quo of the region by seeking to create independent Islamic states in majority-Muslim areas, overthrow existing secular governments, and/or establish a new supra-national Islamic state encompassing Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the southern Philippines, and southern Thailand." [7] But why S.E.A, in particular Indonesia? There are four key reasons contributing to the growing of radical Islamist and terrorist groups in S.E.A, in particular Indonesia:

Common Identity. Having the same religion, Islam, makes it easier for terrorist group like Al Qaeda to convince, influence and gain support from the Muslim population in S.E.A. Zachary Abuka mentioned in his article, Tentacles of Terror: Al Qaeda's Southeast Asian Network that "most states in Southeast Asia have a Muslim population, ranging from 5 percent in the Philippines to 85 percent in Indonesia, the fact is that the region has always been considered the Islamic periphery." [8] Indonesia being the largest Muslim population amounted to approximately thirty to forty percent of the entire population in S.E.A, it is therefore being automatically targeted as an easier and softer target for terrorist groups.

Level of Poverty. Many people in S.E.A, especially in Indonesia, where those living in rural areas still lives below the poverty line of US$1 a day. This is based on the Asian Journal of Agriculture and Development titled Rural Poverty in Southeast Asia: Issues, Policies, and Challenges by Arsenio M. Balisacan, "...namely: Philippines, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Cambodia. These countries account for about 72% of Southeast Asia's total population and roughly 50% of the poor (based on a poverty line of US$1 a day)." [9] So what is the concern? Poverty drives people into desperation, it creates weak social fabric and automatically grouped these people into one weak organisation, an organisation which could be exploited by terrorist groups to recruit them as "workhorse" to carry out terrorist attack.

Ethnocentrism and Prejudice. In Peter G. Northouse's book, Leadership Theory and Practice, ethnocentrism is defined as "the tendency for individuals to place their own group (ethnic, racial or culture) at the center of their observations of others and the world." [10] and prejudice is defined as "a largely fixed attitude, belief, emotion held by individual about another individual or group...often thought of in the context of race..." [11] Translate this to country like Indonesia, the ethnocentrism and prejudice is largely cultural and race related which greatly interfere in one's understanding on western culture and race. This misunderstanding could have deepen especially after United States attack Iraq and Afghanistan. Again the terrorist groups are making use of this area to gain support and popularity in Indonesia.

Diversion and Deception. S.E.A in particular Indonesia, being geographically away from the "at-war" Middle East, position herself perfectly for terrorist group like Al Qaeda to use as a diversion of attention from the world especially United States. This attention diversion will buy time for them to regroup and plan for subsequent devastating attack.

There are two active terrorist groups and eight militant groups currently operates in S.E.A and in particular Indonesia. These groups are:

Al Qaeda. Since early 1990s, the Al Qaeda network has infiltrated into S.E.A region. Al Qaeda uses S.E.A as their Combat Service Support (CSS) or Logistics base as they set up cells for recruitment, training and money laundering to sustain their operations. Bruce Vaughn, a Specialist in Asian Affairs mentioned his congressional research report titled Terrorism in Southeast Asia, that "By 2002, according to expert opinion on Al Qaeda, roughly one-fifth of Al Qaeda's organisational strength was centered in Southeast Asia." [12] Also cited by Zachary Abuka in his article, Tentacles of Terror: Al Qaeda's Southeast Asian Network, "Al Qaeda was developed along diverse, dispersed nodes who share a set of ideas and interests..." [13] Having no central leadership, these cells in S.E.A operated independently as such creating problems for the authority to deal with directly.

Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). The JI terrorist group became known by the rest of the world only after the 9/11 attack. It is believed that the JI is a S.E.A home grown network which have link to Al Qaeda, which Bruce Vaughn mentioned "The network, known as Jemaah Islamiyah (Islamic Group), was discovered to have cells in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand as well as in Australia and Pakistan." [14] Attention turned to this group after the Bali bombing in 2002, killing nearly 200 people mainly foreigners. The JI origin started in Indonesia by a guy name Abu Bakar Bashir, and together with fellow believers, they travelled between Indonesia, Malaysia and even Australia to preach about their radical thinking and ideology. This shows strong evidence on JI's goal as mentioned by Vaughn, "JI's goals have ranged from establishing an Islamic regime in Indonesia, to establishing an Islamic caliphate over Muslim regions of Southeast Asia and northern Australia, to waging jihad against the West." [15] 

Militant Groups. There are about eight militant groups in Indonesia. These eight militant groups are sub-grouped into three categories as mentioned by Peter Chalk, Angel Rabasa, William Rosenau and Leanne Piggott in the Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia: A Net Assessment by RAND Cooperation Monograph Series. [16] The three categories are:

Nationalist Islamists. Groups like Laskar Jihad (LJ) and Front Pembela Islam (FPI) are groups which seeks to unify Indonesia by their own religion belief through strong evocation of Islamic thinking and Islamic law. They would attack bars, nightclubs, brothels and gambling outlets which as quoted in the Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia, "...justified their violence as necessary to eradicate immorality from Indonesian society." [17] 

Antistatist Islamists. Laskar Jundullah, Komite Aksi Pennanggulangan Akibat Krisis (KOMPAK), Mujahidin (KM), Angkatan Mujahidin Islam Nusantara (AMIN), Kelompok Banten (or Ring Banten) are groups which looks at Indonesia as a true-blue Islamic state. Again in the Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia, it stated that "these organizations stemmed from a common Darul Islam (DI) ideological heritage that saw its ultimate cause as the creation of the Negara Islam Indonesia, or Islamic state of Indonesia." [18] This objective results in their fundamental objective in expelling other religions and ideologies out of Indonesia.

Nascent Jihadist. This group Hizb ut-Tahrir Indonesia (HTI) believe that Muslims should be free from control and enslavement by non Muslims. This is evidence in HTI's fundamental ideology as mentioned in the Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia, "The purported core of HTI's ideology is to release Muslims from the degrading position they occupy in the world, which is characterized as dar al-kufr (abode of infidels) and to do so by reestablishing the Islamic caliphate, dar al-Islam (abode of Islam)." [19] 

THREAT SITUATION IN INDONESIA IN THE IMMEDIATE, MID AND LONG TERM

Since 9/11, a new era of terrorism termed the "New Terrorism" has emerged with Walter Laqueur pointed out in his article that "there has been a radical transformation, if not a revolution, in the character of terrorism" [20] which provide a creditable argument that terrorism has evolved or transformed into "New Terrorism". The characteristic of "New Terrorism" can be clearly noticed in the ten active terrorist groups currently operates in Indonesia and the threats face by Indonesia, neighbouring countries and the rest of the world is apparent. The threat situation from the terrorist groups residing in Indonesia will be further discussed over the period of immediate, mid and long term. First, the current threat situation in Indonesia will be highlighted as follows:

Religion as an Ideology. Religion has been wrongfully used as an ideology to motivate and recruit terrorists in Indonesia. Terrorists willing to give up their life in the process of committing a terrorist attack based on this ideology, and this ideology is so strong that terrorists believe martyrdom is the way of reaching heaven [21] and their act of violence need to be accountable only to their God [22] . Study and trend have shown that when the ideology developed from nationalist to religion, the level of lethality increased. To the terrorists, religion is being seen as a legitimate force and source of justification for their application of violence against people or nation-state with different religion and beliefs [23] . This ideology is extremely powerful in Indonesia as 85 percent of the population regards Islam as their religion, which makes Indonesia as the largest Muslim country in the world [24] .

Low Poverty Level. As mentioned earlier, many people living in Indonesia especially those living in rural areas still lives below the poverty line of US$1 a day. This low poverty level provides terrorist groups the ideal recruitment and support gaining notion in Indonesia. In face of stress, be it financially, physically and psychologically, it will drive people into desperation. Being desperate and having a sense outcast from main stream society, terrorist groups just need to stretch out a "helping hand" by providing food, jobs medical care and education. By providing a "helping hand", as according to Maslows' Hierarchy of Needs Theory [25] , their physiological, safety, social, esteem and self- actualisation needs are fulfilled. This could also aid in the explanation of people willingness to sacrifice themselves as suicide bombers.

Self-Sustenance Resources. There are two main resources which provides self-sustenance capability to the terrorist group in Indonesia, namely Human and Financial. In Human Resource, it is the increasing involvement of amateur or "average joe" which are everyday people residing in any part of the world, covering over a wide spectrum of profiles, from poverty to rich and from illiterate to educated professional. Most often than not, these amateur terrorists share the same radical thinking with those professional terrorists thus working "part time" on a voluntary basis. This also means that terrorists' membership are now diffused and international. The poverty and illiterate group provides mass number for activities such as crimes and suicide bombing while the rich and educated professional provides financial income, strategies and technological break though for terrorism. The other key element is the financial income gain from not only illegal but legal means such as (1) investment and accounts from legal Islamic banks, (2) corporate entities and companies set up to provide stable financial income, raw material and money laundering, (3) fund from Islamic charities and (4) donations from members and outsiders through terrorist's websites. [26] 

"Soft" Tactics. Terrorist groups will use communication equipment such as mobile, satellite phones, PDAs and computers and media such as websites, TV and Radio to facilitate them in their planning, communication, coordination, training and soliciting both finance and human resources. New media has also becoming popular as an avenue to promulgate terrorism information such as the means and method of bomb making, hate messages and recruitment, through internet and as a result become accessible and accepted to anyone with grievances, radical thinking or even just pure curiosity [27] . The use of internet penetrated 12.5 percent of Indonesia population in 2009 [28] which is undeniable a threat to Indonesia especially when it is in an increasing trend.

"Hard" Tactics. Terrorist groups will target public transportation systems and infrastructures to inflict maximum damages and casualties. Examples are the bombing of nightclubs and hotels in Indonesia, targeting at large gathering of foreign tourists especially westerner. Terrorists do not need to consider political backlashes as they are usually non state actors acting on their own free will as mentioned by David Tucker "The absence of restraint on terrorists who having no organisation or sponsor to protect, see no reason to limit extreme violence that might generate a backlash." [29] The current tactic used by terrorists is still pretty much uncoordinated attack on multiple targets, which to the government of Indonesia is still able to cope by the current respond mechanism.

The above threat situation will continue to threaten Indonesia and the rest of the world in immediate term and moving into the mid term, Indonesia will have the following additional threat situation:

Indonesia's Economy Growth. Edward Teather, the UBS Executive Director and Senior Economist at Singapore-based UBS ASEAN Research office, said that "Indonesian economic growth would be one of the highest in Asian economies other than China and India, the two Asia's emerging economy countries...that Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth would reach 4 percent this year and continue to be increasing up to 5.3 percent in 2010." [30] With the economic of Indonesia estimated to grow at a rate of 6 percent in 2010 and 2011 [31] , terrorist groups will be jumping on this economy speed wagon of Indonesia to gather much needed finance to fund their activities and self-sustenance.

Cyber Terrorism. With the increasing trend of internet users in Indonesia with the growth of Warnet (Internet Kiosks in Indonesia), the threat of cyber terrorism and crime in the mid term is obvious. Quoted from Indonesia Internet Business Community, "The growth of Warnet erases the exclusive nature of Internet, which everyone, including those who do not have telephone or computer, can enjoy. The development has made the Internet a lifestyle in Indonesia, creating hope as well as challenges within government and business." [32] Cyber terrorism and crime will, make use of internet, (1) spread terrorism ideology and information across to more people 24/7 and border-less, and (2) attack important government and organisations' websites which include banks, military, police, schools and many more through the spread of virus or internet hacking.

Psychological Effect Weapons. The use of Chemical, Biological, Nuclear or Radiological (CBNR) and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) by the terrorist groups are able to achieve not only their motive of inflicting maximum damages and casualties but the psychological effects on the targeted nation-state people. Brian Michael Jenkins highlighted this in his testimony "Thus, another long-term trend is that we live now in an age of alarms.....the nation's mental health must be considered another vulnerability." [33] The use of CBNR or WMD to attack a target in the near future may be due to the realisation of the wastage of human resources and the unwillingness by individual to carry out suicide bombing. This could be due to a reduction in membership as well as individual's willingness as suicide bomber when the poverty level of Indonesia improves with her strong economy forecast in the coming years. Terrorist groups will find it harder to recruit and convince individual to sacrifice his or her life to terrorism when life becomes better.

Sea Lane Terrorism. Beside attacking land targets, terrorist groups could be looking at attacking oil tankers and cargo ship along the busy sea lane. Within the vicinity of the terrorist groups in Indonesia, Straits of Malacca is in a vulnerable position under terrorist attack. Terrorist groups may also explore the use of commercial vessels to conduct terror act, which is similar to 9/11 attack, where commercial airliners were used. As mentioned by Paul W. Parfmak and John Frittelli in their report, Maritime Security, "In addition to vessels and infrastructure, terrorists may seek to attack maritime communities using ships as delivery vehicles for WMDs or by exploiting chemicals or explosives in cargo ships or onshore storage tanks in populated port areas" [34] .

Coupled with the immediate and mid term threat, the long term threat situation that could be envisioned in Indonesia are:

Multidimensional Coordinated Attacks. This is by far the second most devastating attack (first being a nuclear attack) should terrorist groups launch a multidimensional attack on multiple targets at a coordinated time. No nation-state will have the capacity to deal with such attack as the respond mechanism will be fully stretched and overloaded. Brian Michael Jenkins in his testimony elaborated as such "...we could see coordinated multidimensional attacks calculated to achieve cascading effects and overload our capacity to respond." [35] 

Political Game. It is highly possible that terrorist groups make use of the weak social fabric and political chaos within Indonesia to enter the game of politics. Having equally capable leaders and leaders of great intellectual ability, it creates opportunity for terrorist groups' leadership to run for election. Once elected, the terrorist groups' key objective of unifying an Islamic Indonesia will be fulfilled. Evidence could be seen in the Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia, that "...goal is the Islamization of Indonesia, which is enshrined as a fundamental component of a broader ideological vision that views Daulah Islamiyah (an Islamic state) as the necessary catalyst for the restoration of Islamic governance across Southeast Asia." [36] Having governmental control and power, their vision will be easily realised.

Main Headquarter (HQ). With the "war against terror" hammering in Middle East region by the United States (US), terrorist group like Al Qaeda need to constantly seek new hideout or operating HQ. It could possibility be that in future, Al Qaeda HQ might shift from Middle East to Indonesia. This shaft would enable Al Qaeda the following advantages:

Opportunity to merge with JI to become one of the biggest terrorist group in the world.

Geographically closer to their four key operations division, or mantiqis as mentioned in the Evolving Terrorist Threat to Southeast Asia, "Mantiqi I with Singapore, Malaysia (except Sabah), and Southern Thailand which is responsible for ensuring JI's economic wherewithal, Mantiqi II with Indonesia (except Sulawesi and Kalimantan) which is responsible for leadership and recruitment, Mantiqi III with Sabah, Sulawesi, Kalimantan, and the Southern Philippines which is responsible for training and weapon procurement and Mantiqi IV with Australia and Papua New Guinea which is responsible for fund-raising." [37] This would allow Al Qaeda to operate seamlessly and "peacefully" outside the current heated Middle East hot zone.

Nuclear Weapons. With the recent 47 nations summit organised by US on securing world's nuclear material, US President Barack Obama, ahead of the summit mentioned that there are attempts by terrorist groups to obtain nuclear devices "the biggest threat to US security, both short-term, medium-term and long-term...This is something that could change the security landscape of this country and around the world for years to come." [38] With JI and Al Qaeda believed to be cooperating in many terrorist activities, it is possible that Al Qaeda in the future transfer some of its nuclear material to S.E.A region, in particular Indonesia. As mentioned by Bruce Vaughn, "the two networks have developed a highly symbiotic relationship. There is reportedly some overlap in membership...Al Qaeda has provided JI with considerable financial support. They shared personnel, such as when JI sent an operative with scientific expertise to Afghanistan to try to develop an anthrax program for Al Qaeda. The two networks have jointly planned operations, including the September 11 attacks, and reportedly have conducted attacks in Southeast Asia jointly..." [39] It is therefore in the long term threat situation that JI in Indonesia might have the access and usage of nuclear material and the facilities to develop into weapon of mass destruction.

CONCLUSION

Terrorism imposed formidable threat to all nation-states. Based on the threat received, nation-states need to analyse the risk associated. In view that the relationship between threat and risk is closely knitted, it is therefore important to have both in order to conduct a detailed analysis and impose suitable control measures to tackle each threat and risk. Indonesia, having the largest Muslim population in the world, undoubtedly became the centre of terrorism threat in S.E.A. With up to ten active terrorist groups in the country, Indonesia is constantly under the watchful eyes of many counter-terrorism agencies. In the immediate to mid term, the threat situation in Indonesia will be the continuation in conducting conventional attacks on crowded public places (train station, buses, nightclubs, hotel) and political importance infrastructure (embassies, government buildings) using bombs, CBNR and WMD. Terrorist groups will continue to enjoy good recruitment and wider spread of ideology by leverage on both the low poverty level in Indonesia and the increasing popularity of internet usage. Indonesia's economic growth will see two extreme angle to terrorism, (1) better financial income for terrorist groups and (2) a possible reduction of terrorist groups' recruitment due to increase in poverty level. In the long term, several possible threats are being summarised as follows:

Launching a multi-dimensional coordinated attacks simultaneously will challenge the respond capability and capacity of the affected government.

Entering into Indonesia's politics by the terrorist groups will tilt the entire system within Indonesia, thus affecting the rest of the world.

Shifting Al Qaeda's main HQ into Indonesia to fully operate the four mantiqis in S.E.A region and to divert resources away from war "infected" Middle East.

Storing of nuclear material and developing into nuclear weapons in Indonesia in view of the relatively close relationship between Al Qaeda and JI.