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Competition is not really a factor when it comes to this development as Sydney Airport is the only major airport in the state. Seeing as there are no alternatives for anyone wanting to fly overseas, they don't really need to take into consideration any competitors as there aren't any serious ones.
COMMENTARY ON FUTURE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Demand for all forms of travel by air whether it be passengers or freight is increasing rapidly, which is why this development is needed. By 2029, Sydney Airport is expected to handle 78.9 million passengers, around 402,000 passenger aircraft movements and just over 1 million tonnes of freight per annum. Sydney Airport cannot sustainably accomodate this level of activity in its current state, but once the development is finished it will be in a much better position where it can handle this level of aircraft movements.
Aviation activity is growing globally. In 1985, airlines around the world carried over 896 million passengers, and by 2005, passenger numbers had increased up to 2 billion and this level of growth isn't expected to stop any time soon. Forecasts from the International Civil Aviation Organization are that, by 2025, there will be 4.5 billion air passengers every year. One of the reasons behind the increasing demand is the Chinese and Indian economic expansion which is making air travel accessible to these large new markets. Also, as more and more Australians take advantage of affordable airfares, heavy growth will continue in the domestic aviation market. Figure 1.1 shows the growth of passenger movements at Sydney Airport in the years leading up to 2007.
Historical Passenger Movements at Sydney Airport 2000-2007
Freight travel is increasing at a rate similar to passenger movements. Based on average airport-wide productivity of 10 tonnes per square metre per annum, the capacity of current on airport facilities is between 450,000 to 500,000 tonnes per annum for international and 80,000 tonnes per annum for domestic. By 2029, International and domestic freight tonnages is expected to increase to 910,000 and 167,000 tonnes respectively.
To meet this increased demand for freight, a greater amount of flights are going to be needed, with the total annual dedicated freight aircraft movements forecast to grow from 7,800 in 2007 to 10,400 by 2029. Most of the airfreight at Sydney Airport is carried as cargo in the holds of passenger aircraft with about 20 percent moved by dedicated freight aircraft. Freight terminals are expected to continue cargo operations at Sydney Airport and require an increase in size and productivity to meet the forecast demand.
As it stands, the current Shell and Caltex supply pipelines are capable of delivering a maximum of 8.8 million litres per day. The existing storage capacity at the JUHI facility is 28.2 million litres contained in five tanks. In practice, the reserves will always be less than this total capacity as not all tanks can be used concurrently at any given time.
The arrangements for the fuel provide for two to three days reserve capacity at current consumption rates. The forecast increase in aircraft movements, along with an increase in aircraft size across the board will result in a need for additional supply and pump capacity and augmentation in storage.
It is expected that there will be growing demand to develop the areas around Sydney Airport to accommodate activities such as offices, car parks, hotels and convention centres. Sydney Airport will consider commercial opportunities to complement these developments.
The majority of people going to the airport get there by driving, and to meet this demand, multi-storey car parking expansions and other transport-related infrastructure will be provided as required to respond to the developing needs of the precinct and customer service demands. A variety of commercial developments are envisaged including offices, hotels, retail, service facilities and advertising signage to complement the highly active terminal forecourt of Australia's premier gateway.
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE ASPECTS
In a project for an airport there is always going to be negative aspects that develop as a result of the construction and activities associated with airport. This development is no different, with many negative aspects, most of which have procedures in place to minimize the impact. There are also several positive parts to it, such as improved facilities amongst other things.
The new generation of aircraft which is being introduced over the next 20 years are quieter, larger, cleaner and more fuel efficient. Being larger, this also means that more passengers can be transported per flight with a lesser impact on the environment. Because of this, the noise footprint forecast for Sydney Airport in 2029 relative to that forecast in the current Master Plan 03/04 for 2024 has reduced.
The SACL has set out to achieve a high mode split to public transport and other non-motorised modes. Measures to assist with the achievement of this mode split will be decided along with the tenants by SACL for the proposed office development at the airport. They are aiming for a 50% mode split for public transport and other non-motorised modes as the minimum mode split, while expecting a minimum of 40%. The predicted mode shares for both scenarios are shown in Table 1.1
The assessment of the traffic impacts of the proposed development include a higher traffic generation scenario to ensure a 'worst case' in terms of traffic impacts are examined. Based on this scenario, the proposed development, when completed in mid 2005, would generate an estimated 405 vehicle trips in the morning and evening peak hour - of which an estimated 318 vehicle trips are estimated to be new, or additional to the road network. A proportion of this traffic would travel to and from the International Terminal with the remainder travelling to and from the South East Sector car park located in Ross Smith Avenue.
The assessment of the traffic impacts indicates that the additional traffic associated with the proposed development would have minimal impact on the traffic conditions on the arterial road network around the Airport in the morning peak hour, with only a small increase in the traffic volumes using these roads. Minimal impacts during the evening peak hour are also envisaged. For traffic exiting the proposed office development in peak hours to Cooks River Drive adjacent to the exit plaza from the public car park, there are adequate gaps in the one-way traffic on Cooks River Drive to easily absorb the additional estimated 73 vehicles per hour.
The proposal would result in some 420 to 540 trips arriving and departing the proposed office buildings by public transport each week day. The additional patronage using public transport associated with the proposed development would have positive impacts on public transport currently servicing the International Terminal and Sydney Airport through increasing the viability of these public transport services.
The two proposed office buildings would result in the introduction of a significant collective built element in the landside area of the International Terminal precinct. This development has the potential to have different visual impacts from certain viewing directions both on and off the airport. From viewing points to the north, west and south of the Terminal, the office buildings have the potential to become the predominant visual element in the Terminal precinct.
In order to ensure that the proposed office buildings would be appropriately integrated with the design and/or appearance of the existing Terminal, especially the recently completed extensions to the Terminal, the detailed design would use complementary building forms, finishes and detailing. The detailed design would also address such issues as the integration of the roof top elements required to house plant and lift overrun with the overall design of the buildings.
There is minimal existing landscaping in the public car park area on which the proposed office development would be built. This landscaping consists of common garden plants in including some native species such as Cabbage Fan-palms and grassed areas. However, this landscaping is insufficient to provide any sustainable habitat for native fauna but there may be some common non-native fauna that uses the incidental landscaped areas on an opportunistic basis.
The construction of the proposed office buildings may require the removal of small areas of existing landscaping on or near the site area and construction laydown areas. The laydown areas would be largely contained within the overall site area.
The potential relocation of the government agencies to this location at Sydney Airport may generate some additional job opportunities for appropriately skilled people in the operational period and provides employment opportunities for people living in nearby new residential developments such as at Green Square or Interciti at North Arncliffe. During the two 14 month construction periods, there would be a short economic stimulus with up to 150 construction jobs resulting.
Given the proximity of the site of the construction work relative to the Cooks River and the need for initial site disturbance, there would be the potential for some water quality impacts. Stormwater and de-watering (if required) control measures would be implemented to control any sediment-laden run-off during excavations for the foundations for the proposed buildings and minor works such as construction of footpaths and parking areas.