# Geospatial Data Analysis Using Markov Models Computer Science Essay

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Abstract-The advances in survey and data collection techniques over the last decade have dramatically enhanced our capabilities to collect terabytes of geographic data on a daily basis. However, the wealth of geographic data cannot be fully realized when information implicit in data is difficult to discern. This confronts us with an urgent need for new methods and tools that can intelligently and automatically transform geographic data into information and, furthermore, synthesize geographic knowledge. It calls for new approaches in geographic representation, query processing, spatial analysis, and data visualization. For spatial data, the assumption of independent samples is too constrained. Hence the application of Markov model (MM) for the analysis of spatial data is recommended in literatures.

Index Terms-Markov Models, geospatial data, GIS, spatial analysis

## INTRODUCTION

We are going to design a web application using Markov models to mine geospatial data. The basic theory of Markov Models is very elegant and easy to understand. This makes it easier to analyze and implement. Predicting the next page to be accessed by Web users has attracted a large amount of research work lately due to the positive impact of such prediction on different areas of Web based applications. Major techniques applied for this intention are Markov model and clustering. Low order Markov models are coupled with low accuracy, whereas high order Markov models are associated with high state space complexity. On the other hand, clustering methods are unsupervised methods, and normally are not used for classification directly.

## Purpose

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The advent of remote sensing and survey technologies over the last decade has dramatically enhanced our capabilities to collect terabytes of geographic data on a daily basis. This confronts us with an urgent need for new methods and tools that can automatically transform geographic data into information and synthesize geographic knowledge. It calls for new approaches in geographic representation, query processing, spatial analysis, and data visualization. For spatial data, the assumption of independent samples is too constrained. Hence the application of Markov model

## Probloms in existing system

Modeling spatial context (e.g., autocorrelation) is a key challenge in classification problems that arise in geospatial domains. Traditional data-mining algorithms often make assumptions. Previous studies have evaluated classical data-mining techniques, such as logistic regression ,neural networks (NNs) , decision trees, and classification rules, to build prediction models. Searching of particular information is very critical and takes lot of time. In general, logistic regression and NN models have performed better than decision trees and classification rules on this dataset. The fact that classical data-mining techniques ignore spatial autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity in the model-building process is one reason why these techniques do a poor job. Logistic regression and discriminant analysis are the most frequently chosen models. Likelihood ratio methods which are kernel-based classiï¬ers, are also popular. Gathering information of different sources is not an easy job, data will be mismanaged. The complexity ofÂ spatialÂ data and intrinsicÂ spatialÂ relationships limit the usefulness of conventionalÂ data miningÂ techniques for extractingÂ spatialÂ patterns,Solution to these probloms

There are several critical research challenges in geographic knowledge discovery and data mining.

Developing and supporting geographic data warehouses (GDW's)

Better spatio-temporal representations in geographic knowledge discovery

Geographic knowledge discovery using diverse data types

The development of this new system contains the following activities, which try to automate the entire process keeping in view the database integration approach. User Friendliness is provided in the application with various controls provided by system Rich User Interface. The system makes the overall project management much easier and flexible. It can be accessed over the Intranet. The employee information can be stored in centralized database which can be maintained by the system. This can give good security for user information because data is not in client machine. Authentication is provided for this application as only registered Users can access. There is no risk of data management at any level while the project development is under process. The automated system will provide reliable service to the employees. The proposed system using web services, a web service can get the information from other sources also.

## markov models

Markov models represent a powerful way to approach the problem of mining time and spatial signals whose variability is not yet fully understood. Initially developed for pattern matching and information theory they have shown good modelling capabilities in various problems occurring in different areas like Biosciences , Ecology, Image and Signal processing. These stochastic models assume that the signals under investigation have a local property -called the Markov property- which states that the signal evolution at a given instant or around a given location is uniquely determined by its neighbouring values. In 1988, Pearl has shown that these models can be viewed as speciï¬c dynamic Bayesian models which belong to a more general class called graphical models The graphical models (GM) are the results of the marriage between the theory of probabilities and the theory of graphs. They represent the phenomena under study within graphs where the nodes are some variables that take their values in a discrete or continuous domain.

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Conditional -or causal- dependencies between the variables are graphically expressed. In graphical models some nodes model the phenomenon's data thanks to adequate distributions of the observations. They are called "observable" variables whereas the others are called "hidden" variables. The observable nodes of the graph give a frozen view of the phenomenon. In the time domain, the temporal changes are modelled by the set of transitions between the nodes.

A Markov Models is any model, such as a graph, that has the Markov Property. The property applies to any system such that the system has discrete states and given the present state of the system and all its previous states the probability of the state changing from the current one to another depends only on the current state. This means that at any time the probability of anything happening depends only on the present situation and not on any previous situation. This allows a model to show probability as a simple statistically likelihood of the transition between states while disregarding pervious state. This simplifies the task of predicting the likelihood of something happening by making it so that only a single model and its probabilities need to be considered at any time.

For example, for my project uses Markov models to model documents. A document can be viewed as one word following another many times over. A Markov model can be made to model this behavior by examining how often one word changes to another word. Thus each word is a state and the models finds how likely a state is to change to another state, or word here, based on the current word and not on any previous states, or words.

Often times a technique called "smoothing" is used on Markov models. This technique gives the model at least a small probability of transitioning from any one state to any other state regardless of whether or not a particular state followed another in the data set. For example, there would be a small chance for elephant to follow the word river even if the word elephant never followed river in any of the data that was used to make the model. This technique helps to simulate the randomness of an actual environment and to try and deal with situations where an event can occur but simply never did in the data set that was used to generate the model.

## A.Prediction Framework

In this section, we present a novel framework for Web navigation prediction. The fundamental idea is to generatedifferent prediction models either by using different classification techniques or by using different training samples. A special prediction model, namely, EC, will be generated and later consulted to assign examples to the most appropriate classifier. Note that each predictor, in the generated bag of prediction models, captures strengths and weaknesses of that model depending on many factors such as the set of training

examples, the structure, the flexibility, and the noise resiliency of the prediction technique.

Fig. 1 shows the different input/output of each stage of the framework. At first, all classifiers are trained on the training set T. The output of the training process is N-trained classifiers. During the mapping stage, each training example e in T is

mapped to one or more classifiers that succeed to predict its target. For example, in Fig. 3, t1 is mapped to classifier C2, while t3 is mapped to the set of classifiers C1, C2. The mapped training set T_ undergoes a filtering process in which each

example is mapped to only one classifier according to the confidence strength of the classifiers. For example, after filtering stage, t3 in T_ is mapped to C1 rather than C1, C2 because

C2 predicts t3 correctly with higher probability, for instance. In case the models have equivalent prediction confidences, one model is selected randomly. Finally, the filtered data set FT is

used to train the EC as the final output.

In this paper, we generate N orders of Markov models, namely, first, second, . . ., Nth-order Markov models, by applying sliding windows on the training set T. These prediction models represent a repository that can be used in prediction. Next, we map each training example in T to one or more orders of Markov models.

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Examples of our workIn this paper, we generate N orders of Markov models,

namely, first, second, . . ., Nth-order Markov models, by applying sliding windows on the training set T. These prediction models represent a repository that can be used in prediction. Next, we map each training example in T to one or more orders of Markov models. For example, in Fig. 1, training example t3 : (P1, P3, P5) is mapped to two classifier IDs, namely, C1 (first-order Markov model) and C2 (second-order Markov model). After that, filtering/pruning process is conducted in which each example is mapped to only one classifier. In our experiments, we choose the classifier that predicts correctly

with the highest probability.

## B.Prediction Setup

Given a testing session (t) of length L, we conduct prediction using the (L âˆ’ 1)-gram Markov model and obtain the prediction to evaluate the accuracy of the model. Recall that the last page of t is the final outcome that we will evaluate the correctness of the mode against; hence, we use (L âˆ’ 1)-

gram. In case t is longer than the highest N-gram used in the experiment, we apply a sliding window of size L on t. For example, suppose t = p1, p2, p3, p4, p5, if we use the third order Markov model, then we break t into p1, p2, p3, p4 and p2, p3, p4, p5.

## C. Ranking in Prediction Resolution

Once prediction models are built, we test these models against new examples. However, in many cases, a prediction model might give several outcomes, each with different support/probability. Note that resolving the prediction to only

the most probable target page would make the prediction accuracy very low because the accuracy can be computed as follows:

accuracy = - p âˆˆ pages ,dist(p) Ã- pred(p)

where dist(p) is the target distribution of page p and pred(p) is the target prediction accuracy of page p. For example, given a Web site of two pages with the following target distribution

and accuracy: dist(p1) = 0.4, dist(p2) = 0.6, pred(p1) =0.65, and pred(p2) = 0.35, by (8), the accuracy of this Web site is 47%. Note that there are two factors that influence accuracy negatively in (8): 1) the low distribution of pages and 2) the higher interleaving targets of sessions, i.e., same

session has more than one target. Unfortunately, in case of Web sites of large number of pages, these two factors affect accuracy negatively. Therefore, the prediction accuracy in Web

navigation is generally low.

## Experimental results

We first give a solution architecture diagram for the above. We first take the Users's input file which may be in xml format or any formal. He uploads the file in the application. The application runs and gived the user the predicted output.

SOLUTION ARCHITECTURE DIAGRAMF:\Untitled.pngIn the first Step user enters the geospatial data input. The markov algorithm in analyzed and states are printed. The graphs etc are drawn. The user gets the predicted output. Use of java is done for the analysis.

ER DIAGRAM FOR THE SYSTEM

C:\Users\deepu\Desktop\projects\uml examples\main er diagram.png

## Conclusion

The explosive growth of Geospatial data and widespread use of spatial databases emphasize the need for the automated discovery of spatial knowledge. GeoSpatial data mining is the process of discovering interesting and previously unknown, but potentially useful patterns from spatial databases. The complexity of spatial data and intrinsic spatial relationships limit the usefulness of conventional data mining techniques for extracting spatial patterns. Efficient tools for extracting information from geo-spatial data are crucial to organizations which make decisions based on large spatial datasets

The advent of remote sensing and survey technologies over the last decade has dramatically enhanced our capabilities to collect terabytes of geographic data on a daily basis. This confronts us with an urgent need for new methods and tools that can automatically transform geographic data into information and synthesize geographic knowledge. It calls for new approaches in geographic representation, query processing, spatial analysis, and data visualization.

GeoSpatial data mining is a young and promising research domain. It is a potentially rich resource for spatial decision making and intelligent spatial analysis. More and more methods have been used to spatial data mining, including rough set, support vector machine, Markov Random Field, decision tree etc. GeoSpatial data mining should be combined with statistical and pattern analysis, spatial reasoning to create spatial decision support system and intelligent spatial information system.