Challenging Elements In Prediction Of Technology Commerce Essay

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the prediction of technology can be described as forseeing where technology is going to be in the future.steps must be observed when a statement of a project is made.the choices and resolution should be determined at the begining of the project succession in order to forsee the future and be aware of the technology's to apply. in addition due to the other alternative technology options, forcasting is required on a regular basis for companies, if possible the forcast result may be enumerated earlier and changes can occur.this results can be measured and this will approximate the level of the transfomation needed. another feature of technology forcasting is doubt about the impacts of technology in this world, for example inflation.inflation is a decline in the power of has influenced technology both in good and bad ways.creditors will lose money and debtors will gain money when an unexpexted inflation occurs. tools such as field testing,interviews and prototype are been used together with forcasting to obtain assurance in the marketplace.

Any organization that is capable of putting into practice valuable prediction will be more prepared to look for the stability between handling demand for goods or services and the ability or facility to meet this demand. The capability of utilizing this distinctive stability helps an organization to utilize this as a benefit for competition over its competitors.

strategic planning is the method of approach used in making choices and assigning its supplies to follow this provides the basis and structure of a business arrangemnet. organizing the strategic plan of a business is an effective requirement for business sucess,without this plan most business will probably be unsucessful.analysis technique which dells employs for strategic planning is SWOT analysis refers to the strenght, weeknesses, opportunities and threat that a company undegoes

strategic planing questions invlove some of the following questions:

-what do we produce

-what do the customers want

-how can we satisfy this want

once the obectives and goals of the company are defined, strategic planning and forcasting have to be put in place to achieve this. The objectives or aims of an organization are basically a more visible declaration of the idea or vision identifying the undertakings to be attained if the vision becomes a reality. The set out goals are more recognized proclamation of the exact or precise activities necessary to realize the goals beginning from the present or existing position. At this stage, preparation developed should cover the following issues: vision,mission,vale,strategies,programs.

the aim of this essay is to illustrate and demonstrate the various ways the company dell applies forcasting and strategic planning to its business operations, how they interact with each other and method used.the objective of this essay is to critically evaluate the concept of success of this company, followed by organisation factors researched on this topic.


information was collected from internet sources and acadamic books

history of dell

dell was founded by a man named micheal dell in 1984.his aim was to designs and customizes its computers according to the needs of the customer.micheal dell was still a student of university of texas and the company was still called PC'S limited.the year after dell produced its first computer of its own specification and named it turbo which had eight megahert processor.what makes dell different is the fact that it allowed individuals to customize their products when ordering.micheal dell made a change in the ways computers were been sold. product line today includes desktops,laptops,server and so on.the company GROSSED 73million dollars in the first year of 1988 the company went PUBLIC giving shares for 8.50 a piece and changed its name to dell.the fisrt dell laptop made its appearance in 1991 and in 1933 dell company became one of the top fives company companies in the 1996 their products were sold through the grew between the 1980s and 1990s to become the largest seller of computers.operations carried out by dell includes customizing hi tech products like laptops, desktops and 2010 dell has topped HP and acer in the production of computers. dell says the customer comes first and that is an integral part in the companies structural heritage and hierarchy is creating long-lasting partnership and working with them to provide their needs and provide solutions that support their sucess.the concept of solution being driven to address the specific customer challenges.micheal dell said "we are becoming the pc outstanding ompany not just the pc supplier" (hedrick and struggles,1997) in 2005 it took first place among the ranking of "most admired companies" issued by forbe has undergone a series of past events. one of which was achieving an increase in dual numbers in sales done yearly. The vision statement is to operate hand to hand with partners and supply readily products at all times including the supply of quality customer encounter in the market place. Dells main opponents are hp and acer. in the marketplace and small industry it encounters contestant from fellow direct vendor, gateway. As dell progresses into new service business such as creating of none compting products like television, it faces new compition such as lg.

Key success factors for dell includes:

-product customization for business and consumer customer

-Economical prices

-better connection with suppliers

-produce customization for business and consumer client

-superior customer deal

- outstanding cost arrangement


Large business and government

Industry, home offices and small business

Customer recognition and


Telesales supported by dirext sale force in local offices

Publicity and promotion


Open account and third part listing

Credit cards and third party leasing


Manufacturing to order and shipment through third party carriers

Manufacturing to order and shipment through third party carriers

Business strategy:

Dells company's success is the connection between all of its competencies. The direct sales is dependent on the built-to-order system, and the built-to-order system relies on the supplier integration system.

hence a dell pc is intended to reduce human touches in making, contractor are certain to make sure high product excellence, contractor are physically included into making and the whole charge accomplishment process id managed by a sophisticated combination of internal and external information

An advantage of direct sales and build-to-order making is that costly catalogue doesn't put up in the path and doesn't gain its value earlier than it can be put on the market and fresh goods can be brought in not having to remove older inventory in the path. Dell know so much information about the end user, information such as: what product was bought from dell, how many products were bought, where the product was delivered to and so on.The following discuss how the company achieved success, the process involved.

-direct sales

-build to order

-supplier integration

direct sale

this model called the direct sale model has been in existence for company produced almost all its products after an order was made by a customer. presently, dell is among on the few computer makers that builds their own personal product.this type of process has successful over the years.its a competitive advantage over competiors, while also selling its products at a lesser price.Dell also managed tooffload much of the financial burden of manufacturing to suppliers, and its manufacturing efficiency is legendary.because of this model dell has grown faster than its competitors hp and acer

build to order

The method Dell used in developing maintenance for the 100 percent construction ability, importantly to enhance its need in planning and company appropriate performance, order to minimize the time taken in ordering delivery of services and improve the customer's service. They went into partnership with Accenture to rapidly produce an innovative, high-performance chain of supply and development resolution. because of usuage of this model dell has grown faster than its competitors hp and acer

Presently, in Dell's foundations is all over the world, and the program paid an excess.

The company has the ability to become accustomed more quickly and efficiently quickly varying technologies, and also keeping up with its reputation as a high-performance industry.

Dell is a ruler provider of products and services required for customers to construct their technology infrastructures. The company was originated in 1984 and presently has about 34,400 employees in 34 countries, worldwide marketplace contribute in surfeit of 15 percent, and yearly revenues of almost $32 billion.

-supplier integration

Traditional computer companies had to be vertically incorporated and developed the many gears of the computer themselves. When Dell first started off, they this traditional process could not be afforded . Instead, Dell leveraged investments made by others and focused on the delivery of solutions and systems to customers,which is the heart of the direct business model. Which has allowed Dell influence their relationships with both its suppliers and customers. Though the few suppliers of Dell are the equivalent of partners and are treated as if they were actually a fraction of Dell. This partnership will last as long as each partner maintains its leadership in technology and of course quality. The suppliers of Dell are told exactly what the company's daily requirements will be, making it possible for the free flow of information that is shared between Dell and its supplier. Technology boosts the economic incentives of such type of association due to the fact that it speeds time to market and creates respect that is shared between buyer and seller. This type of collaboration,thus, posses the challenge of change on focus from how much inventory there is as well as how fast it is moving and is measured by inventory velocity, which has Dell working with suppliers to continually reduce inventory(stock) and increase its speed.

The channel plan:

The act of deciding a channel supply chain is an essential and effectual strategy which is very compulsory. the supply chain master can make a influential new channel that decreases its contestant s access to vital aim financial records and the marketplace area. there are battles between the producers, distributors and competitors over client possession by means of inter company supply chain associations. the success of this supply chain associations are the explicit ideas. The internet also opens new prospects and extent for enhanced customer deals. however the companies newly produced channel should retain the fit among a companies business form. in the premature period of a technology produce life cycle, distributors are significant for following innovative adopters. an improvement straight channel scheme gave dell these fundamental basics of its supremacy packed business model. The main suppliers of dell come mainly from pc makers who are of the same group. For example, ibm for the hard drives as well as Intel which it has used for its sole source of its microprocessors. A decision which was imposed to simplify its product development but if intel is unable to meet its market demand as it was in the late 1999 and early 2000 then it would be uncostly. The manufacturing of dell is done in the united state but about 70% of its procurement is done in the Asia pacific region. Between 1992 and 1997 dell reduced its number of supplier by 75%, and about fifteen of these are its key suppliers who provide 85% of its materials.In other to reduce its complexity of managing its supply chain, Dell works with this suppliers in multiyear planning as well as negotiating.

-customer comment

- market insight

-extremely crisp product life cycle evolution

-capability to manage costs on a actual basis

Dell toiled at length to create an helpful supplier running function in command to cut down module guide times and uphold unconditional excellence standards necessary by the procedure.

Objectives of dells strategic plan:


swot analysis which is part of strategic planing is used to determine the strenght,weakness,opportunities and threats involved with dell.this analysis identifies and specifies the issues which are positive or negative to dells business objectives.first the strenght of the company which is been used to achieve the objects of dell, then weakness which includes factors affecting the business ,and thenopportunites which will aid the achievement of these objectives, finally threat includes environmental or external factors which affect performance.the process of identifying these swat analysis is very important for businesses such as dell as it invloves steps involved for achievements of objectives and development.

strength and weakness relate to matters concerning the following resources:sales of a product, operations efficency, product services,cost productivity.


Final customer


suppliersDell is the World's largest PC maker their products are one of the best providing customers with the best effective way to meet their needs. dells profeicency is their cost strategy.they sell their products directly to customers thereby reducing conselator.


new product market on corporate clients.The company gets their suppliers from other countries that can cause the company some embarrassment. In the year 2004 Dell had to recall 4.4 million laptop adapters because of a fear that they could overheat, causing electric shocks or fires.


bringing new products to the marketplace at an affordable price.also introducing new products such as printers and also non-computing goods.

dell is selling low cost products to retailers in the united states of america.they rebrand for other companies gives the company new market segments.


the competitiors of computer companies pose a big threat in the market place world wide. rivals such as acer and hp deduce the growth of the company. dell gets product components from far regions like indian where the work cost are really cheap, but this infomation is available to competitiors, so they can apply the same process.

also as dell been a global company, it is open to instability in the global exchange market.variation in currency rate could leave the company exposed to possible loss in part of its supply chain

technology changes is also a treat because of advancement of technology in the economy


the help of digital nervous system nevertheless the ceo might find out what is going on on the tactic front and on all other sides. this is one of the major stragic problems . can you supervise tactics and their results at any time they want or anywhere you want. The solution cannot be positive unless the nervous system is widely spread giving optimistic answers to a dozen other significant questions.

1. has e-mail developed into the main internal message system?

2. is it possible to get trade data information on-line?

3. do they use PCs for trade study?

4. do individual use the digital system to get rid of paper and official procedure?

5. have you improved procedures to abolish single-task work for multi-functional tasks?

6. does monitoring the system improve excellence and competence?

7. Do customers have feedback on-line?

8. clients association are they put up into the system?

9. Do you converse by means of the digital system with all contractors and associates with the endeavour of restricting cycle times and hastening processes?

10. is the middleman eradicated, replacing of deliverables?

getting right and accurate answers from the questions above has so many advantages and having wrong answers minimizes the companies requires no knowlege of technology and business awareness . the right answers underpin the efficency of the strategic plan.

Distribution Planning Strategy

demand planning includes push and pull system,understanding the customers demand on cost matters, positioning of goods at appropraite distribution centres all this to reduce working the working capital.A key to managing inbound logistics with suppliers and contract manufacturer. To have the parts it requires at the accurate time to gather a pc, dell needs contractors to embrace record in store in a 15-30minute compel of its plant. Dell then notifies the warehouse when components have to be stocked up and they are taken to the plant, where they are towed off the truck according to their requirement.


dells uses forcasting method to make decisions and plans about its fututure.futute researchers examine and identify the best alternative future makes it possible for people to alter or be prepeared for whats ahead of them in the future. No matter the type of forecasting we apply, there will be an issue about uncertainty and blind spots will occur . The future is however filled with doubt . information of the past make available the raw materials from which the brain then constructs ideas of the future.the accuracy of dells forcast was between 70 to 75 percent due to its accurate account selection. Whenever there is an uncertainty in the company dell manager raises the forcast on high-end products because it is way better and much easier to sell up and high-end had a more extensive shelf life.

Difficulties in using forcasting technology:

The rate at which the advancement of technology is growing makes it impossible to to fully predict techonology characteristics. Sometimes when the truth is staring right as us, we find it hard to accept it due to repercussion which may take place after. it takes guts and nerve to accept this allegation of the judgment .nevertheless opposition to change is a normal human feature, it is tremendously tricky to endeavour ahead of our autonomy of approval in forecasting innovative technologies.


In the late 1980s companies in the United States began to concentrate on their core competencies. This started a move to outsource functions that weren't related to a company's main line of business. Outsourcing business has grown manifolds and the present market is estimated to be around US$ 500 billion (M. Lacity, 2002). Outsourcing phenomena has caught the interest of academicians too and the academic researchers have analyzed this phenomenon in various perspectives. As an offshoot of this IT outsourcing, companies in the late eighties started to experiment with offshore sourcing to varying extent. Research has also been done in the overseas outsourcing of IT work to a limited extent. There has been a great deal of interest in the trade publications on offshoring than in the academic publications, for reasons such as adverse skill availability, cost savings and quality.

Dell doesn't have significant amount of resources tied up in physical facilities dedicated to wining the first to market battle

for each consecutive invention of technology but dell devotes in the information technology communications which holds interaction between its buyer, contractor and producer. Dell increases its stretchy reply ability by outsourcing constituent fraction manufacturing. Dell rationalizes its processes and relies on its computer watch trader to transport straight to the customer. as long as a supplier maintains its strategic location, dell will join forces with the supplier to accomplish joint achievement, but if a particular supplier loses its boundary. Dell has the suppleness to react fast and customer determined to guarantee dell continuous competitiveness.


the strategic plan reseacch outcome identified the problem dell has dealing with the market.the company foucsus mainly on the business side is the market and ignoring the individual side.the aim is to develop a strategy plan for dell company with its focus on products for students.

Journal of Forecasting

Volume 2 Issue 2, Pages 109 - 118

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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