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Trend extrapolation by corporation is a method of constructing new points outside a known data points. It is a process like as a interpolation which make a new points between known points, but result of the extrapolation is less useful, its subject to uncertainty. This method may also apply to human experience to project, extend or expanding of known experience into an are not known or previously faced so as to arrive at a knowledge of the unknown data. There are different kinds of extrapolation methods its includes linear extrapolation French curve extrapolation. This is very popular method is based on the fundamental assumptions that are effective during the course of economic activity. This is the quantified through analysis of past developments and expressed in the form of an appropriate activity formula. The forecasting based on such concepts are essentially build on an analysis of past activity. The mathematical statistical tool required for forecasting in corporation.
The probability that the regulation, apparent through the constancy in trend, always win through again in the end is often considered greater than the probability that the future could lead to a fundamental change in a previous basic trend. Linear trend is increase or decrease over time at constant absolute rates of change according to the basic formula of the trend exploration. Exponential trend is trend that increase or decreases at constant rates of growth parabolic trend is a consistent with the formula of the trend exploration. Logistic curves growth parabolitic trend is consistent with the formula of the exploration. Logistic curves growth curves is usually s-shaped, moving from an initial phase into a dynamic phase in order to then enter into a new equilibrium phase again in the end. This trend is consistent with the formula of exploration. Life cycle curves this is follow at first growth curve trend in a some period of time the curves take a downturn again. The difference between the logistic trend, moving towards similar nature no new equilibrium phase occurs.
Delphi technique for LP Amoco a world leader in petroleum production contemplating the strategic direction of company. The board faced with two options.
LP Amoco is petroleum production company recently they have got contemplating the strategic direction of the company, the board is faced with two options continue with the current strategy which focus primarily on the production of oil throughout the world. Adopt a diversified approach where by investment is allocated to both oil production and renewable sources of energy. Board recognises that in order to make a decision they need a medium to long term forecast that company needs to do for implementing this strategy in the organisation. They are going to use here Delphi technique for long term forecasting. Delphi technique is a flexible research technique that has been successfully useful for long term and short term forecasting in the organisation.
It will going to explore new concepts within and outside of the information systems
body of knowledge in the organisation.
Delphi technique evaluation for Lp Amco
The characteristics for right future of Delphi technique are, Anonymity of Delphi participants: it will going to allows the committee members to freely express their opinions
without undue social pressures to conform from others in the group. Decisions are evaluated
on their merit, rather than who has proposed the idea. Iteration: I t will going to allows the board of Lp Amco to refine their views in light of the progress of the group's work from round to round. Controlled feedback: informs the board organisation of the other participant's perspectives, and provides the opportunity for Delphi participants to clarify or change their views. Statistical aggregation of group response: allows for a quantitative analysis and interpretation of data.
Now company needs to develop research under oil production and renewable sources of energy production in the organisation how it will going to affect for the long term forecasting in the organisation. The Lp Amco company has got two options to forecast the oil production and renewable sources sources, now company is producing only oil production and they wants to diversify strategy one more direction of strategy is renewable sources sources of energy by using Delphi technique for that they need to research and development in the particular area and they needs to follow the procedure of Delphi technique for long forecasting in the organisation. They needs to develop some research questions - The research question is derived by a number of ways in the organisation it will going to derived by board and research and development committee in the organisation. They needs to do research on current situation is oil production they needs to some forecasting and survey board members review on a particular question in the organisation. They needs to have some experience for new deparment of production is own industry experience often contributes to company interest in the research area. They needs to conduct review on long term forecasting under a literature of that they needs to identify the problem conceptualize the study design the study develop a sample in a area of production . company needs to refine the research instrument, company needs to develop the test data analysis. After design question company needs to design the research macro to micro areas that are affect to oil and renewable sources of production in the organisation. Company can use different research methods both like qualitative and quantitative methods in the organisation. Delphi technique is a good for decision making and considering some judgements of experts in a group decision making setting in the organisation both qualitative and quantitative methods useful Delphi technique. Research Sample - Selecting research participants is a critical component of Delphi research. After having a developing a question and design research company needs to organise a sample research on a oil production and sources renewable energy resources in the current market of industrial area with the organisation. There after company needs to develop Delphi round one questionnaire. In the forward forecasting process company needs to Delphi conduct pilot study in the area of of oil and energy sources of in the market of the Middle east and north Africa. The Delphi questionnaire will going to help company for improving comprehension and to work out any procedural problems in the organisation. company needs to keep developing a round and round questionnaire, in the questionnaire only company members can participate and give respond to a questionnaire after getting respond company needs to compare this with a current situation in market its provide some judgements and decision to board regarding the direction of strategy which one should company can follow for forecasting and achieving the goals and objectives in the new strategy. After questionnaire company needs to verify generalize and document research result the Delphi results are investigated continuously. This Delphi method that company will going to follow in project management specialization programme is general guide rather then template qualitative Delphi process to develop a complexity-based project classification system other three round research project. However there are few research projects that have used the Delphi method identified literature review. Other methods used in dissertation and thesis . identifying critical success factors for ERP implementation projects, developing a model of how technologies are developing and how they are notable recent, improving the IT security audits, identifying the criteria for measuring knowledge management efforts, identifying why the strategies for a defence department IT project succeeded or failed, identifying emerging IT isses of the 21st century that affect public school board policies.
Delphi method design considerations,
Methodological choices ,The Delphi method is typically used as a quantitative techniques, a researcher can use qualitative research is internal in the sense of that company will not going change the are of business then choices are used, researcher is interested in how the social world is interpreted, understood and experienced, the researcher is flexible and sensitive to the social context within which the data was collected. Initial question-broad narrow, there is a continuum representing the degree of focus or openness of the questionnaire questions, the question more focused and structured to guide certain goal of the company. the consideration for expertise criteria, the company needs to meet four expertise requirements its include knowledge and experience, the issues under investigation, capacity and willingness to participate, sufficient time, effective communication skills. The number of round regarding the questionnaire is important to have in a Delphi technique, company cant take decision in one round they needs to expertise research with two-three questionnaire round in the particular are of forecasting in the organisation it will going to help company in future to achieve goals ad objective in the organisation. The direction of strategy is very important as well if company is forecasting current area of business and market then it should be easy way to do forecast in Delphi technique. The Lp Amco is doing same area of new business its related to a industrial petroleum resources then the Delphi method is provide the decision regarding to that it will helpful for future as well.
Advantages for Lp Amco by using Delphi technique
In a planning situation, the Delphi technique can be used to develop a number of alternatives, assess the rapid community growth for the company. explore underlying assumptions or background information leading to different judgements. This method of forecasting is less expensive. There is a reliable judgements or forecast result of the company. conductive individual thinking and gradual formulation of the forecasting the data of the organisation. The Delphi technique is well selected respondent panel a mix of local official knowledge individuals, members of impacted community, regional officials, academic social scientists etc, can provide a broad analytical perspective on potential growth impacts. The Delphi technique is another way of obtaining group process, the Delphi technique does not require face to face participation. It uses a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersd with information summaries and feedback from preceding responses.
In the study of Delphi technique for a Lp Amco regarding forecasting for different strategy that the company board member want to implement for a new investment regarding some energy sources in the north Africa market. This method is useful for company when company has got alternatives for making some investment in a market It will going to provide guidelines regarding the forecasting for future of the organisation with the help of current situation of the organisation.