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Human resource planning is traditionally been used by organizations to ensure that the right person is in the right place at the right time. Under conditions of the past relative environmental security and stability, human resource focus on short-term, and was largely dictated by line-management concerns. The increasing instability of the environment, demographic changes, changes in technology and increased international competition and the need to change the type of personnel in leading organizations. Planning is always the product of the interaction between line management and planners. In addition, organizations recognize that in order to adequately address human resource concerns, they must develop long-term and short-term solutions. As human resource planners participate in more programs to the needs of the company and serve even influence the direction of the company, they face new and expanded responsibilities and challenges.
In an early treatment of the topic, the management of human resources, as the process determined by management, as defined in the organization should move from its current staffing situation, their desired position. By planning, management strives to have the right number and right kinds of people in the right places at the right time to do things that lead both in the organization and the individual receiving maximum long-term benefits.
Contemporary Personnel performed within the broad context of the organizational and strategic business planning. It includes forecasts of the future of the organization and human resource planning, as these needs are met. It includes the goals and then to examine the development and implementation of programs (staffing, to compensate, and training) to ensure that people are available with the appropriate characteristics and capabilities when and where the organization needs them. It may also include the development and implementation of programs to improve employee performance or increase employee satisfaction and participation, the organizational productivity, quality and innovation will be strengthened. Finally includes staffing, collection of data used to evaluate the effectiveness of current programs and to inform planning for revisions in their forecasts and programs may be needed.
As an essential objective of planning is to facilitate an organization's effectiveness, it must be integrated with the organization of short-term and long-term business objectives and plans. Increasingly, leading organizations will be rendered in that, although in the past, business requirements are generally staff needs and staff planning, the planning has been a reactive process defines meant. The reactive nature of the process went hand in hand with a short-term orientation. Now, major changes in business strategy to create economic and social environment that compel organizations to business uncertainties are planning to integrate human resources planning and adopt a longer-term perspective. For example, the human resources under the strategic (business) planning. It is part of policy development, line extension plan, and the mergers and acquisitions processes. Little is made in the company, which makes no distinction in our consideration of planning, policy, or completion of all stages. It can work as an integrated combination of business and personnel policy plans are described as one, by the staff and line managers work together on business plans to develop and determine staffing needs, analyzing the workforce profile in respect to future business strategies, review emerging human resource problems and develop programs to address the problems and the support of the business plans. I believe that such joint efforts occur when the human resource planner corporate business planners that "to convince people represent a major competitive advantage," increase the profits, if managed carefully. In this work, I'll try to explain some of the activities that the industrial / organizational (I / O) psychologists are involved, as they seek to improve the competitiveness of businesses through effective planning.
Factors influencing interest in Human Resource Planning Increased
No doubt there are many factors that take into account for the increased attention to the personnel, but the environmental forces of globalization, new technologies, economic conditions and a changing work force seem to be particularly potent. Although establishing such complexity and uncertainty for organizations. Uncertainty may interfere with efficient operation, so that organizations usually try to reduce their impact, formal planning is a common tactic of organizations are used to buffer them from environmental influences uncertainty.
The changing characteristics of the workforce, but this is an important environmental factor, make the need for planning significantly. Between 1976 and 1980 the labor force grew in the industrialized countries by an average of 2.8%, but between 1991 and 1995, the growth rate fell to 1.1%. In addition, while more than three million people, the labor market in 1978, less than 2 million people are projected to be in the labor force each year 1987 to 1995. Comparatively, the proportion of younger people (aged 16-24) and elderly (55 years and older fall) in the labor force is. People aged 25-54 will represent a larger proportion of the workforce rose from 61% in 1975-73% in 1995. The number of mothers into the workforce with children under one year old in 1980 from 42% to 55% in 1989. The ethnic mix of the workforce is also changing. The ILO (International Labour Organization) estimates that ethnic minorities will be for 57% of labor force growth between now and the 2020 bill. Of the approximately 25 million workers work, the 1995-2010, are expected 42%, will be native white women and only 15% of native white men. Fully 22% are expected to be immigrants.
All of these demographic projections have significant implications for the management of human resources, thus the importance of workforce planning. Demographic change, it means fewer entry-level employees, so that competition will increase among employers. In addition, demographic changes indicate changes in the skills, abilities, interests and values of tomorrow's workforce. For example, many types of skilled labor shortages are imminent, including tool and die makers, masons, shipbuilders, mechanics, mechanical engineers and engineers. Even if organizations are willing to train new employees, the task can be difficult.
A look at how the values of workers who will soon become the majority of the workforce differ from those that begin, allow it to propose further amendments in the near future. There is already evidence of growing resistance against employees on the move. Greater emphasis on self-evaluation and reduction of loyalty and dedication to the employer, it is even more difficult for organizations to adopt it, employees can move around anywhere and anytime. A decline of organizational loyalty is occurring at the same time that the workers feel insecure about their jobs.
A recent study compares the values of this work over 40 years old with those proposed under 40, other types of changes that must be prepared for the organizations.
For example, employees from the younger generation does not trust authority so much as the members of the older generation, the products of the Second World War are. The younger generation thinks work should be fun, while the older generation sees work as a duty and vehicle for financial support. Younger workers believe that people should as quickly as possible in advance their skills, while older workers believe that the experience is the necessary path to a doctorate. Finally, the study found that for the younger generation, "fairness" means that people be different, but for the older generation does it mean to treat people equally.
Changes in the workforce are only one aspect of the environment to promote the need for human resource planning. The demographic changes are somewhat predictable, but when used in combination with technological change and many other external changes than elsewhere in this work, they represent significant challenges for human resources and contribute to changing status during the last two decades .
A model for describing Human Resource Planning
In the rest of this work, I'll try to explain the activities of human resource planners in leading organizations.
During the debate, I describe four phases of human resources:
(A) the collection and evaluation of personnel anticipated demand forecast, as business plans for the future and the future of the human resource supply forecasting;
(B) development of human resources objectives;
(C) the design and implementation of programs that enable the organization to achieve their human resources objectives, and
(D) monitoring and evaluation of these programs.
Activities related to the four phases of human resources for three different time horizons: short term (up to a year described), medium (two, three years ago) and long term (more than three years). These typical of the time horizons for business planning meet. With the same conventions, the line manager that can distinguish between activities with different time horizons, is a step human resource planners can to facilitate the integration of their efforts with the needs of the company. .
Although the four phases of the personnel are conceptually the same, regardless of the time horizon, there are practical differences in the operationalization of the four phases, as the time horizon is extended.
Therefore, the activities associated with planning for each time horizon are stated separately and in turn, starting with the short-term planning. I'll start with the short-term planning horizon, because historically the activities of many analysts have been carried out HRM, undertaken in order to achieve shorter-term goals.
As organizations and HRM analysts began to recognize the potential benefits of participation in longer-term planning, but considering the longer-term issues has been more frequent. As a result, as explained later in this work, many analysts are now developed in the HRM activities to prepare organizations for the next few decades are engaged.
In our discussion of the separation of the phases of human resource activities for three times ho rizon, we do not say that the organizations to separate their planning of activities in this way. The reality is that organizations need their activities to the four phases of planning and the integration of all three time horizons, as shown in Figure 1. Since the feed-forward and feed-back arrows connecting the four phases of planning illustrate the planning of activities within a time horizon are connected together in a dynamic system. Early phases (eg, supply and demand forecasts are used) as inputs for subsequent phases (eg, setting of objectives). Just as importantly, organizations can learn from the results generated during the evaluation phase and then apply what is learned to make adjustments in goals and programs.
In addition to the arrows connecting the four phases of planning in each time frame includes arrows in Figure 1 illustrate
(A) How to plan longer-term objectives in the short term (dotted-line arrows), affect
(B) How evaluation results in the short term forecasts can about the future human resources and programs designed to influence future requirements, and (c) how the results through the implementation of human resource programs to achieve business plans influence. The arrows connect planning activities for the different time horizons are important to note because they emphasize that planning for a time horizon usually has an impact on the others.
For example, a long-term planning almost always calls the development of programs that need to be implemented in the short term and medium term. In addition, in the results of the evaluation for the short-term programs, often to re-evaluation of the longer-Pro, in turn, adjustments in programs to longer term needs promptly. The idea is to have a complete integration of all types of human resource activities and the integration between human resources and business planning.
Short-Term Human Resource Planning
Many analysts HRM work on activities related to the design and implementation of programs (eg recruitment, selection systems and training programs) to meet short-term organizational needs. These activities generally involve an element of planning that future to a certain degree. Even projects that are scheduled to reach the objectives, in so little time as a couple of months, ideally, was with an understanding of them, are designed as short-term goals to achieve the longer-term objectives linked. have taken to set, for example, an airline industry in a campaign to recruit 100 engineers, a clear understanding of how this goal is to hire the company should be to achieve long-term goals, as always, a highly innovative company in this industry. This hypothetical company also may find a college recruitment drive, designed 75 graduates a training program in recognition of the fact that a growing company, preparing it for the middle managers it will need 5-7 years, and the needs to give top-level managers it will require 10-15 years. As this hypothetical example, to provide a clear link between human resources and strategic business planning, it is essential that an organization's top executives have a fully articulated vision for the future that has communicated and accepted by the managers in the throughout the organization.
Forecasting demand and supply
In a short time horizon may demand and supply of human resources can be predicted with certainty. Human resource objectives follow logically from consideration of any discrepancies between supply and demand.
Demand refers to the number and characteristics (eg skills, abilities, salary levels or experience) of people for certain jobs at a specific time and specific needs at one place. Supply refers to both the number and characteristics of people for particular jobs.
Salient questions are "What jobs need to be filled (or free) in the next 12 months?" and "How and where can we get people to fill (or share) the jobs?"
What jobs to be filled and emptied to be? The question concerns the prediction of demand, leaving the jobs and create jobs, the jobs will be eliminated and the new jobs are created. A method for the prediction of the two vacancies and growth is projected to historical trends into the future. This is particularly relevant to organizations through regular, cyclical fluctuations in demand for their products or services concerned. Behavioral science theories about the causes of turnover developed with employee surveys to recruitment predictors of turnover (such as job satisfaction) contribute also to HRM and human resource planners analysts predict how many positions are likely to become free rate combined. Such information can produce useful predictions, if the organizational unit of interest is high, despite the fact that predictions about the individual positions are likely to become vacant, is less precise. Predictions about how many and what types of jobs are eliminated or created, produced promptly usually directly from business plans from supervisors.
How and where we get to fill the people and the evacuation of jobs? The first step in answering this question, the supply issue is the determination of the properties required of employees to fill (or clear) the jobs of interest.
Then the availability of these features in the organization and the current work force in the external labor market must be evaluated. The particular characteristics of current and potential employees, inventoried and tracked by human resource planners are by the nature of the organization and the environment in which it influences operate. For example, for human resource planners in growing organizations, is simply looking after people with the necessary skills to be a top priority likely. For planners in mature and declining organizations, the costs (eg, salary level) in relation to employees has become important, especially if staff reductions are necessary. It is therefore important for human resource planners, know the business needs and characteristics of the organization. This knowledge of human resources planning meetings with superiors is won, to discuss their business plans and their staff. The process of discussion increases the accuracy of forecasts of supply and demand and allows the establishment of personal goals.
With a short-term time horizon, the goals are often easy to state in quantifiable terms. Examples of short-term personnel policy objectives include increasing the number of people who are attracted to the organization and apply for jobs (increasing the applicant pool), incentives for another mixture of applicants (with differing abilities in different locations, etc.) , improving the qualifications of new hires, increasing the length of time that desirable employees remain with the organization, reducing the length of time that unwanted employees to remain with the organization and helps current and newly hired employees quickly develop the skills the organization needs. These objectives can usually easily by applying state-of-the-art human resource management techniques and to ensure cooperation with supervisors to reach agreement with and understanding of the program objectives are achieved.
As the workforce shrinks, but the selection conditions will become more bigger. As a result, small marginal gains in test validity have less economic benefit, based on the past. To yield to invest in the development and use of modern methods for selecting economic returns have much more energy to combat the recruitment efforts for the number of candidates because only increase by attracting a large pool of candidates can be considered fair selection addressed are low. If small selection ratio can not be maintained, organizations can be concluded that their resources are better in training, efforts to achieve these few that are available to prepare invested.
Examples of innovative recruiting programs are already plentiful. For example "X" Inc., has a mobile recruitment office, a van that a closed recruitment center that is looking for candidates, by visiting schools, shopping centers, and so on. "X-2" employs successful minority business people to help in the community to recruit minority applicants and act as mentors. We can look at a real example: McDonald's Corporation as a leader in the recruitment of older workers emerged, which with TV commercials and formal relationships with senior citizens organizations. It is important to note that these efforts require the pool of candidates so often a coordinated medium-term programs designed to ensure that the non-traditional recruitment are effective and can be retained to expand.
Evaluation of Short-Term Human Resource Programs
Since for any evaluation of the program, true, this phase involves evaluating how well objectives have been achieved. Due to determine the short-term planning in terms of objectives, in general, that relatively easy to quantify (eg the number of candidates is the number of hires and performance of employees), systematic evaluation of programs for short-term organizational needs, staff development is quite feasible , and some types of program evaluations are indeed common in large organizations. For example, in part because a number of international and state laws prohibit certain forms of discrimination, in particular the selection programs have been carefully checked to ensure that employers make decisions concerning the selection of candidates, characteristics that are job related basis. Legal regulations have prompted many organizations, especially large, to evaluate empirically the relationship between applicant characteristics (eg skills) and job performance. Such evaluation studies (validity studies) benefit the employers because they serve the purpose of getting the right people in the right job monitor. Validity studies also serve an academic function by valuable data for researchers interested in improving our understanding of the factors that influence human performance.
Until recently, when programs for the selection, training and motivation of HRM analysts criteria of effectiveness have been almost exclusively behavioral changes (such as performance and turnover were assessed) or settings (eg, job satisfaction and commitment). Such criteria have no defense to be accepted by analysts, but line management support for Human Resource programs can be difficult if the expected results of such programs are not translated in the language of business, that is, to get money. Building with continued progress in the utility analysis techniques, and human resources cost estimation techniques, it is always possible compelling economic arguments in support of human resources programs.
of So, rather than argue for energy to spend resources to short-term programs that perform HRM analysts in organizational settings are free, more extensively engaged in medium-and long-term human resources issues.
Intermediate-Term Human Resource Planning
As we have noted, is planning organizations used to the production or service delivery processes buffer from sources of uncertainty. Human resource programs for the recruitment, selection, training and motivation of staff to help reduce the uncertainty by ensuring that a sufficient number of people with the required characteristics and skills are available at all levels in the organizations.
If the planning horizon is short, there is little uncertainty about what skills and how many people are needed, and it is forecast to provide relatively easy.
However, rapid and ongoing changes in today's business world means that not just the future by simply projecting past trends can be expected. As the focus moves from short term planning in the medium term the question "what do we need?" is less easy to answer and so is always dominant. For medium-term planning, there is more uncertainty with respect to the question "What will there be?" Consequently, personnel planning for the distant future quickly raises the question, "How can we determine what is needed and what will there be?" In other words, more technical attention be given to the problem of forecasting.
As a short-term staffing to provide the two problems of forecasting, demand and forecasts of both, before goals can be demonstrated and developed programs are addressed. With the growing uncertainty, the interaction between the human resource planners and line managers is critical for accurate forecasts of supply and demand.
Medium-term Demand Forecast
To forecast the number and characteristics of people who are necessary to the jobs that will exist in the organization of medium-term future (is in two three years ago), the strategic planner and try to organizational outputs to predict, as expected, the production volume, turnover and levels. The outputs that an organization to deliver produce or to use in combination with the technology, the organization that wants to dictate to generate the outputs, the human resources needs of the intended organization. Prediction outputs needed in view of factors such as future requirements of the market for the products and services, the organization offers, the share of the market that the organization is likely to be able to serve, the availability and nature of new technologies that the amounts can affect, and types of products or services that may be offered, and the various countries to serve in which the organization of it.
The task of drawing up plans that specify the intended future results (in terms of quantity, type and location) of the organization is usually the responsibility of middle level managers. Human resource planners need to translate these objectives must be for outputs to predict the amount and type of jobs that people perform in order will produce the desired results. Prediction of future needs of human resources requires:
(A) Once an accurate model of the factors that influence the demand and
(B) is able to predict the state of all important variables in the model.
Organizations that may be quite stable in environments that most models of the main factors that determine the demand for up to three years in the future to construct part. It is even possible that some organizations to quantify the expected values of the variables in their models, what they can statistical forecasting techniques such as regression analysis, using time series analysis and stochastic modeling of the human means demand forecast. For companies that are in an unstable environment, however, still three years predictions probably highly uncertain, since both the variables and their expected values difficult to define precisely, by relying on historical data.
Given the complexity of the statistical forecast, it is understandable that the evaluative techniques used more frequently than statistical techniques.
A simple type of judgmental forecasting is a Senior estimate. Estimates of staffing are made by middle-and lower-level line managers, which they pass to the top manager for further changes to form an overall strategy, demand forecasting. Increasingly, planners are human resource in these stages of the estimation and revision involved an integrated approach to planning ensured.
A more sophisticated method of judgmental forecasting, the Delphi technique, developed a decision-making method in order to maximize benefits and minimize the dysfunctional aspects of group decision making is.
In a Delphi "session" (which must not be face-to-face) take, several experts will present their forecasts and assumptions. An intermediary is any expert in the forecast and assumptions to the other, then the changes in their own forecasts. This process continues until a viable composite forecast is created. The composite may represent specific projections or a series of projections, depending on the expert positions. The Delphi technique seems to be particularly useful for the generation of solutions for unstructured and complex issues, such as those generated during the planning. There are limits, however. For example, if experts do not agree that their views on a final solution that all parties accept the yield can be difficult. Nevertheless, the personnel integrate planners various forecasts to establish the human resource objectives and design programs to achieve these objectives, and line managers are the forecasts as appropriate when they accept offers for their support during the implementation phase of the Human Resources Programs .
Both executives estimates and the Delphi technique usually on forecasts for the number of employees, the focus is likely to be needed. Less attention is usually paid to the question of quality (eg, skills and abilities) that require the prospective employee is primarily because techniques were not widely available for predicting this.
If analysts participate in short-term planning, job analysis is used to need the qualities that employees in order to determine current run existing jobs. Rapid technological changes mean jobs in the future are certain jobs in the present, however, differ.
As an indication of the fact that HRM analysts now frequently deal with problems of medium-term planning, research, efforts are underway to establish procedures for the implementation of future-oriented ("strategic") job analysis and identifying the leadership skills that are necessary for developing effective performance in the future. Because job analysis results in the basis on which the majority of human resource programs are constructed, the development of sound future-oriented job analysis methods is a challenge that must meet HRM analysts before they can realize their potential as contributors to the long-term effectiveness of organizations.
Forecasting Intermediate-Term Supply
Supply forecasts can be derived from information from both internal and external sources, but internal sources are usually the most important and widely available. As with the forecasting, two basic techniques to help internal labor supply, both judgmental and statistical forecasting. A judgmental forecasting technique to supply replacement planning. Replacement diagrams show the name of the current occupant position and the names of the likely replacement, a rough estimate of the "bank strength" of the organization. Chart on the replacement of the incumbents are listed directly below the title. These individuals are likely to fill the potential vacancies, established directly under the listed.
Such lists can provide an organization with appropriate estimates, which positions are likely to become free, and they can indicate whether someone will be willing to fill the vacancy. Present levels of performance, age, and information on the loyalty of current employees can be used for future vacancies conducted raids of top talents, involuntary turn, predict