The Issues In Decision Making For Certain Events

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Decision making is the critical part in every ones life. Every one has take decisions every day at some time. Some situations are in a certain condition for which decision making is quite easy and straight forward, others situations may be with some uncertainty and risk for which one must take extra care while making decisions. In this report we are discussing about some decision making theories and processes. Every one in the world is having their own personal talents like their own Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats, to make them all use in a proper manner one must analyse al of them. A proper personal analysis will leads to success and avoid them from wrong steps. Reflective practice is a concept of learning from their own life experiences, which helps ones a lot to their success. In this report we are going to discuss about reflective action as well. Though motivation is not a concept of this module it is an important concept, here we are going to discuss how it affect ones personal profile. Here in this report we are also discussing about perception and negotiation and how it affects human behaviour.

Decision making for certain events

Certain events are such a events for which one have the confidence what is going to happen if we decide one thing to do, for example think about coin of having head on both sides if we toss that coin certainly heads will come up. So there is nothing to worry about certain events even though it is very rare to face such a certain events. The present world is filled with full of uncertainty and risk so it is very rare to face such certain events and even if we face it is quite easy to take to decision under such situations. For an ideal certain events the probability will be 1.

Decision making for uncertain events

Uncertainty is the complement of knowledge. It is the gap between what is known and what needs to be known to make correct decisions (R. P. Mack) "Decision making is the commitment of resources today for results tomorrow."(George Chacko). We never know what is going to happen tomorrow and what it brings because the world is filled with full of uncertainty. Decision making under such uncertain events is a typical task and it deals with some kind of risk as well. Fro example think about that you are a in recruitment board and you have to fill one vacancy for sales and you got two candidates one with past experience and average track record and the other is not having any past experience and with excellent track record in other area like marketing. In this kind of situations you can not take the decision very easily so we need some theories and procedures to take a decision for such kind of uncertain events.

Subjective expected utility

Subjective Expected Utility is promoted by L.J Savage in 1954. It is a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. Most of theories for decision making are assuming that we have the probabilities of the events for which among we need to decide, but for most occasions we may not having the probabilities handy and most of theories dealing with objective probability. Subjective probability is the probability derived from the human judgement made by thinking of their previous experience and perception. Subjective probabilities contain no calculation for deriving the probability. As this subjective probability deals with persons thinking and perception it may differ from person to person. Subjective expected utility deals with subjective probability.

An event for which if you are having n possible outcomes noted as x1, x2,……. Xn. noted as {xi} and each of them having a utility function u(xi) and the subjective probability function p(xi) for each event. Then the subjective expected value of the outcome will be

For making a decision under uncertainty we are having a wide range of theorems and procedures. Here in this report we are discussing about decision tree analysis of decision making.

Decision Tree

Decision tree is a powerful tool used by the big organizations to make critical decisions at times which gives them the optimum solutions among the available solutions. Decision tree is a tree like graphical structure each branch denoted with one outcome with particular probability; we even can add resource cost to each branch to see the final cost of the outcome with the probability of the outcome as well.

Decision tree contains squares, circles and triangles. Each square represents a decision and each circle represents an uncertainty and each triangle represents an end point. We need to start our decision at the first square and draw the possible outcomes as nodes from that and at each node if there is any uncertainty draw a circle and represent the probabilities and resource costs. At the end of the tree we are having triangles as end points with final resource cost and probability.


A company is considering for placing tenders in government sector and there are two contracts C1 and C2, the company is having three options either placing a tender for C1 only or placing a tender for C2 only or placing tenders for both of C1 and C2. To place the tenders the company has to pay some amount to government and if the company wins that tender that amount will be deducted from the contract amount and in case that the company lose the tender it will become as loss, so this process of placing tenders is with risk.

Cost of tendering for C1 only: £50,000

Cost of tendering C2 only: £14,000

Cost of tendering both C1 and C2: £55,000

Resource cost for C1 only: £18,000

Resource cost for C2 only: £12,000

Resource cost fro both C1 and C2: £24,000

The company has collected the probability for each tender with different tender prices listed below

Option Possible tender price Probability of getting contract

C1 only 130,000 0.20

115,000 0.85

C2 only 70,000 0.20

65,000 0.80

C1 and C2 190,000 0.05

140,000 0.65











C1 only:

Placing a tender for £130,000:

Total cost = £50,000+£18,000 = £68,000

Total profit = 130,000-£68,000 = £62,000

Expected monetary value = 0.2(62,000) + 0.8(-50,000) = £-27,600

Placing a tender for £115,000:

Total cot= £50,000+£18,000= £68,000

Total profit= £115,000-£68,000= £47,000

Expected monetary value= 0.85(47,000) + 0.15(-50,000) = £32,450

C2 only

Placing a tender for £70,000:

Total cost = £14,000+£12,000 = £16,000

Total profit = 70,000-£16,000 = £54,000

Expected monetary value = 0.2(54,000) + 0.8(-14,000) = £-400

Placing a tender for £65,000:

Total cost= £14,000+£12,000= £16,000

Total profit= £65,000-£16,000= £49,000

Expected monetary value= 0.8 (49,000) + 0.2(-14,000) = £36,400

C1 and C2:

Placing a tender for £190,000

Total cost= £55,000+£24,000= £79,000

Total profit= £190,000-£79,000= £111,000

Expected monetary value= 0.05(111,000) + 0.95(-55,000) = £-46,700

Placing a tender for £140,000

Total cost= £55,000+£24,000= £79,000

Total profit= £140,000-£79,000= £61,000

Expected monetary value= 0.95(61,000) + 0.05(-55,000) = £55,200

So here we got three options for this decision

Going for C1 (£115,000) with expected monetary value £32,450

Going for C2 (£65,000) with expected monetary value £36,400

Going for C1and C2 (£140,000) with expected monetary value £55,200

On the above three options as the third one going for both C1 and C2 is the best option.

Personal profile

Looking at your own personal profile will help you a lot to make decision in your life as it tells you everything about you. SWOT analysis is one of the best available tools to build your personal profile.

SWOT analysis

SWOT analysis is strategic planning tool to asses your Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats. Doing a SWOT analysis on your personal life will help you to know about yourself and also helps to plan your future and make you take care of your present situation.


I have done B.Tech in Electronics & communications from J.N.T.U Hyderabad, I finished my Diploma in Computer Science from Liverpool Hope University, and at present I am doing M.B.A.

I worked in Hi Tech solutions as a programmer for 6 months, and I have gained a lot of experience on electronics and also on assembly level programming.

I have got a specialised knowledge on analytical and logical thinking.

I have got a very good skill on programming at various levels especially on C, C++, Java and Assembly level programming.

Coming to the point of resources I got very strong backup from my parents, friends and my teachers.

Discussing about my character and personality, I got a very strong confidence on my self and I am a kind hearted person and mine is a hard working nature that takes me to this strong position.

I got a very wide range of influential contacts like my friends, parents, teachers and colleagues.

I got a very strong belief on God and I got a specialised interest and knowledge on programming.

Under the circumstances like achieving my goals either it is shot term or long term, and doing good at my work or studies I felt most happiest and most fulfilled.

The last but not the least strength that I got is my patience and I am never going to leave that in my life.


My present status in Visa and Finance limits me to achieve my goals and fulfil my ambitions.

I have got some gaps in my qualification like one year gap after B.Tech and Diploma and another year gap after diploma and M.B.A., and also I am not in my stream I an deviating from my main stream like my previous qualifications.

I also got some financial pressures from my back home and from here, and also I got some mental pressure like when I am going to finish this course and when will I get back to my original stream.

Coming to the point of personality and character I got some weak points like I am not too brave and always worried about my future, sometimes I am not even felt the success at the current situation by worrying about my future.

I have done less well than I would have liked because of taking some wrong steps in my life and also lack of guidance at some stage.

Under a very wide range of circumstances I felt frustrated and unhappy by thinking of mu future and looking at my present position.


The aspect of changing my present Visa status to PSW seems to be a foreseeable situation I can take advantages from that situation.

As we see the recession is coming to an end and I am expecting the software industry regains its original boom and I am expecting some job vacancies on my line.

Because of recession most of the people lost their hopes on software and gone for another track so I am expecting less competition in the coming days.

As I have knowledge on electronics, computers and management I think I will be a step ahead from the rest of applicants.

In the last case I got another opportunity of stating a business by keeping in mind of money I am going to have in future.

In the worst case I got another opportunity of becoming a manger in my present job at petrol station once I got my PSW.


As we know the home office changing the rules on regular basis so I am having a threat from that side as my future is depending on my PSW.

As we know that the future is unpredictable we never know what going to happen in future as I am not financially too strong I had threat about finance in my future.

The software industry now a days coming across so many ups and downs as I am planning my future on that track I got a small threat that can I compete?

Obsolescence is also becoming one of my threats as the technology is changing on regular basis.

Reflective practice

Reflective practice is a process that enables you to reach a better understanding of yourself, your skills, competencies, knowledge and professional experience. Reflective practice helps you to learn and gain knowledge from your past experiences and use those experiences to act in future in a better way to build to better future.

Reflective cycle (Gibbs 1988)

Edgar Schon, an influential writer on reflection, described reflection in two main ways: "reflection in action and reflection on action. Reflection on action is looking back after the event whilst reflection in action is happening during the event. To complicate matters there are different interpretations of reflection on action. Let's now explore these terms. "To think about what one is doing whilst one is doing it; it is typically stimulated by surprise, by something which puzzled the practitioner concerned"(Greenwood, 1993). Learning comes from many different incidents and experiences that we have in life. We can learn much about ourselves, others, our job, our organisation, and professional practice, as well as our abilities and skills, if we consciously take the time to reflect on our learning.

With the help of reflective practice we can learn a lot from our experiences and we will came to know what happened what I have done and like what is wrong and what is right, in future if we face same sort of situation there is a possibility of reacting in a much better manner that before. It is better to go around the reflective cycle to act in a better manner.

Experience of reflective action

Most of the people are using the concept of reflective action though they don't know what they are doing is called reflective practice. Before the moment I read about this concept even I don't know that I am applying it in my daily life. I had a weakness of spending all the money what I have got in my pocket without worrying about tomorrow, in some times that goes a bad extent as well leaving some bad experiences, after some time strictly speaking now a days I am doing reflective practice on this weakness like if I got some money in my pocket I am just going around the reflective cycle for a while then I am not doing same mistake that what I have done before, in this way using reflective practice I successfully moved my weakness away from myself.

Frame work for reflection

Description of the event

Feeling and thoughts




Action plan


Motivation is power full tool to inspire yourself and the people around you. Though it is not in this module here I want to explain something about motivation and how it inspires me to move forward in my personal life. Motivation is the activation of goal-oriented behaviour. In present days motivation is playing a vital role in work places, speeches and in many places to inspire, energize and wake up people around you. In many management theories motivation became an important subject, and they are learning how to motivate their employees to obtain best results from them. As I mentioned earlier in this report I am always worried about future and disappointed all the time looking about my present status, in those times I am always try to self motivate myself that works and worked in very good manner. Self motivation prepares you to face new challenges and to face any type of difficulties.

Perception and understanding

We all have different ways of looking at things, from the way we look at the nature of existence to the way we perceive the vast universe. As our vantage points are different, our perspectives also vary. Unfortunately, not all of our perspectives are viewed through the lens of Dharma. Because our original nature has been clouded repeatedly by wordily distractions and mental confusion, we no longer perceive the world with clarity, and a misguided understanding inevitably results. How do we nurture the right perception and understanding to see life as it truly is? This is the important question that we will address through examining different types and origins of erroneous views, various levels of perception and understanding.

After people select the sensory data to be perceived, they begin grouping the data into recognizable patterns. Perceptual organization is the process by which people organize or categorize stimuli according to their own frame of reference. Of particular concern in the work environment are perceptual distortions, errors in perceptual judgment that arise from inaccuracies in any part of the perceptual process. Some types of error are so common that managers should become familiar with them. These include stereotyping, the halo effect, projection, and perceptual defence. Managers who recognize these perceptual distortions can better adjust their perceptions to more closely match objective reality.

Post office strike

We know that we had a postal strike recently showing the workers negotiation against the organization which results enormous disorder of the postal system for couple of days. Negotiation is a powerful tool if one uses it efficiently to attain results. Recently post office workers showed their negotiation to attain pay raise, stopping job cuts, good working hours and modernization. Showing their negotiation they have called a strike which makes the higher officials to come down and make them to give the pay rise and good working hours. The company has postponed the process of modernization as it costs them more and the thinking of the company as the works merely wanted the pay rise and if the company gave the pay rise the will keep quite. This also helps to motivation. The company gave them 7.6% pay rise over the next three years so they cleverly avoided the negotiation over next three years regarding pay rise which is important.


In this report we have studied decision making process and decision theories. We came to know how important is decision making in our life. In this report we even came to know how to draw a decision tree to make decision with probabilities and resource cost to make better decision and efficient as well. In this report we came to know how important is making a personal profile which helps us to know about our selves and to help us to make any decisions in our life according to our resources and talents. In this report we also studied about perception and understanding and negotiation. We also gone through a real time example of post office recent strike showing their negotiation against the organization to attain pay rise and many more, and we also discussed their path to success showing their negotiation.