RETAIL RESEARCH FORUM
The Retail Research Forum is an informal grouping of experts established by the six largest real estate advisors in Poland, to monitor on an ongoing basis retail property markets in Poland's principal main cities. Researchers from CB Richard Ellis, Colliers International, Cushman & Wakefield, DTZ, Jones Lang LaSalle and King Sturge meet and collaborate within the framework of the forum, and at regular intervals will publish a snapshot regarding the shopping centre market in selected cities.
RRF ISSUES RETAIL MARKET DATA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 2007
The Retail Research Forum has released data for the retail markets of selected conurbations (Warsaw, Silesia, Tricity, Łódź, Kraków, Wrocław, Poznań and Szczecin) for the first half of 2007. The information includes the quantity of modern shopping centre space delivered between 1993 and Q2 2007, the level of new completions, supply forecasts for 2007-2008, the concentration of shopping centres in particular cities, levels of vacant space in the urban areas under review as well as volume of retail space by tenant sectors.
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At the end of Q2 2007 there were 119 shopping centres, offering a total of 3,466,300 m² GLA, across the eight main conurbations of Poland. In the first half of 2007 six shopping centres were delivered to the market: Złote Tarasy in Warsaw, Pasaż Grunwaldzki and Arkady Wrocławskie in Wrocław, Forum in Gliwice, the second phase of Stary Browar in Poznań and Plaza Sosnowiec.
Wykres 1: Annual completions of shopping centres in selected cities 1993 - 2008* and cumulative stock
The supply of modern shopping centre stock was considerably higher (over 100%) than that witnessed in the first half of 2006. Across the eight main conurbations, 224,500 m² of shopping centre space was completed during the first two quarters of 2007. The accumulation of shopping centre stock in the first half of 2007 was the result of the deliverance of new schemes together with those whose opening was postponed by a quarter.
The majority of modern retail space in Poland can be found in Warsaw (29.7% of the total), followed by Silesia (19.8%). Currently, a relatively low amount of space is located in Szczecin (4.2%), Tricity (8%) and Wrocław (8.3%).
The ratio of modern retail space per number of inhabitants provides a different outlook on the market. The highest ration of modern retail space per 1,000 inhabitants can be found in Poznań (619 m²) and in Warsaw (594 m²), with a relatively low ratio recorded in Silesia (305 m²). The RRF estimates that by year end 2008, the majority of analysed cities will witness a further increase in the concentration of modern shopping centre space per 1,000 inhabitants. Most notably, there will be a considerable growth in the density of retail space in Szczecin (estimated to rise from the current 351 m² to 543 m² per 1,000 inhabitants) and in Poznań (from 619 m² to 787 m²).
Graph 2: Shopping centre space per 1,000 inhabitants in selected cities (Q2 2007)
By year end 2007, almost 125,500 m² of modern retail stock will be completed across the eight main conurbations in Poland. The most significant completions scheduled for completion in the third and fourth quarters of 2007 will be: Galeria Bałtycka in Gdańsk (39,000 m²) and Auchan Rumia (35,000 m²). The RRF estimates that a further 441,300 m² GLA of modern retail space will be completed in 2008. The majority of space due for completion between Q3 2007 - Q4 2008 will be delivered to Kraków (105,500 m²), Tricity (105,500 m²) and Poznań (95,000 m²). Łódź will see the least amount of development activity with ca. 5,000 m² of completions.
Graph 3: Shopping centre supply in selected cities 1993 - 2008*
The level of vacant space in shopping centres in the largest Polish cities remains stable at the low level of 1.35%. The highest level of vacancy recorded during Q2 2007 was in Warsaw (2.95%), with the least in Szczecin (0.25%).
Graph 4: Vacancy rates in shopping centres in selected cities (Q2 2007)
The demand for modern retail space continues to stand at a high level and is concentrated within shopping centres located centrally in the cities. A total of 8,374 retail, service and catering units are operating in the shopping centres across the eight main conurbations in Poland. The majority of retail units in shopping centres can be found in Warsaw (2,634) and Silesia (1,390). Szczecin records a comparatively low number of stores, with 315 units.
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Graph 5: Number of stores in shopping centres in selected cities (in % as for Q2 2007)
In terms of the retailing sectors operating within the shopping centres, similarities between the Polish cities can be found, however it should be noted that the category “fashion” sees the most competition. This is particularly evident of the retail markets in the cities of Warsaw, Silesia, Poznań and Kraków. A relatively low number of retailers operate in following sectors: “children and maternity”, “leather accesories” and “sport equipment” (in particular this can be observed in Szczecin, Tricity and Łódź).
Graph 6: Number of retail units in shopping centres in selected cities (Q2 2007)