1. Sri Lanka was invaded by British in 1815.During that period Sri Lanka was famous as Ceylon. Before invaded by British, Sri Lanka did not have an export economy. They started exported economy in Sri Lanka.Since the British sailor; James Taylor planted the first 19 acres of tea in Sri Lanka in 1867; in the hill country with the help from India Assam tea planters. With the unique advantages of tropical weather condition and different altitude of terrain, Sri Lanka produces tea that has its own aroma and flavours.
2. Today, it is the world 3rd largest tea producer and tea's economy value contributes to increasing accumulation of foreign exchanges. Different altitude and areas create unique aromas and flavours of their own and also attract different buyers around the world, such as buyers from Australia, Europe, Japan, and North America.
3. It is shown that climate variability is the key factor on the annual yield variability of tea industry. Hence, climate change has direct and indirect impacts on tea production in Sri Lanka. It was found that changes in rainfall pattern in order to increase the length of dry and wet seasons per year and increase the temperature are two key factors on the variability of tea production in the principal tea growing regions. This paper predicts future yields in tea production for Sri Lanka using various irrigation methods under different climate scenarios and highlights the possible patterns which can be used for lands in landslide and flood area. Further, develop the drought resistant tea varieties (Genetically modified plant) and make farmers aware of climate change in Sri Lanka.
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1. The aim of this paper is to convince the reader and to give an idea about Sri Lankan tea plantation history of Ceylon tea plantation, its importance to citizens and climate changes in Sri Lankan region with educating the problems faced by present day Sri Lankan tea industry due to climate changes while addressing the actions can made to increase the production and quality of Sri Lankan Tea industry while minimizing the problems related to climate changes in Sri Lanka.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Tea Industry has been a major source of income of this country for decades after colonial regimes. Sri Lanka is one of the countries producing quality Tea with natural flavour in it. But, climate change in the world due to various reasons is a natural phenomenon which we can not control. Although Sri Lanka has historically had a climate conducive to the growth of tea, significant climate changes have had an adverse impact on the tea plantations industry in order to degrade the quality and productivity.
Therefore the aim of this research project is to identify the impacts that lead to degrade the quality and productivity in Sri Lankan Tea industry due to climate change and to find solutions to overcome the problems.
THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS
It is hypothesized that monsoon rainfall variation and increasing temperature in tea growing regions to be degraded the quality and productivity of Sri Lankan Tea industry in order to effected national economy of Sri Lanka.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
5. The scope of the study covers an assessment of the future impacts of climate change such as extreme rainfall and increase temperature for production of Tea in Sri Lanka and new implementations that are applicable in preventive remedies as well as an analysis of their effectiveness. The paper will focus on identifying the weaknesses of the existing methods in order to logically increase production.
METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
6. The required data for the research will be drawn from the following sources;
a. Primary source. Will include information collected by interviewing persons who are working in government and private sector that have a role or involvement in the meteorology, production of Sri Lankan tea industry, large scale Tea exporters as well as obtaining feed back and their views from experts on the root cause of the problem.
b. Secondary source. Information will be gathered from relevant books, journals, treatise as well as internet.
STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER
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7. The paper will be structured as follows,
a. Chapter I. The first chapter will contain the introduction to the
b. Chapter II. The second chapter will contain the Methodology of the study and will comprise of the following.
(2) Statement of the Problem
(3) Research hypothesis
(4) Scope of the study
(5) Method of data collection
(6) Structure of the paper
c. Chapter III. The third chapter will introduce the background information that will need about the subject area, so that they will be better able to understand the findings of research.The chapter will be sub-divided as follows,
(1) History of Ceylon tea
(2) Export performance
(3) Roll of Tea in economy of Sri Lanka
(4) What is climate change?
(5) Global Climate change
(6) Reasons behind the climate change
(7) Why is South Asia vulnerable to climate change?
(8) Climate in Sri Lanka
d. Chapter IV. The fourth chapter will examine the data collected and the chapter will be sub-divided as follows,
(2) Monsoon Rainfall variability
(3) Temperature change
(4) Flood and Landslide
(5) Data related to Tea industry
e. Chapter V. The fifth chapter will examine the reality of the problem by analysing data which was collected and assess the infectiveness of the existing methods that can be implemented to provide an effective solution to the problems. The chapter will be sub-divided as follows
(1) The changes in climate parameters and its influence on tea industry in Sri Lanka
(2) Impacts due to change on rainfall regime
(3) Impact due to increased ambient temperature
(4) Impact due to other reasons
a. Drought damage
b. Flood and Land slide
(5) Possible response strategies to minimize the impacts of climate variability on tea industry
f. Chapter VI The sixth chapter will conclude the paper with the recommendations.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND TEA INDUSTRY IN SRI LANKA
THE STORY OF CEYLON TEA
1. The tea plant "Camellia Senses" is cultivated variety of the tree originating from the region between India and China. The main crop produced on the island of Ceylon was coffee, until the 1860. But in 1869, the coffee-rust fungus killed the majority of the coffee plants and estate owners had to diversify into other crops in order to avoid total ruin. The owners of Loolecondera Estate had been interested in tea since the late 1850's and in 1866, James Taylor, who is recently arrived Scot, was selected to be in charge of the first cultivation of tea on 19 acres of land in 1867
2. Taylor had a fully equipped factory in 1872 and his first quality tea was sold for a very good price at the London auction in 1873. Through his dedication and determination, Taylor was largely responsible for the early success of the tea crop in Ceylon.
Figure 3.1 Pioneer in Ceylon tea plantation
3. More than 80 percent of the island's tea estates were owned and managed by British companies until 1971. Then, Sri Lankan government introduced a Land Reform Act which gave the state control of the majority of the plantations leaving about one-third in private hands and since 1990, a restructuring program has been going on to involve the private sector companies (both Sri Lankan and foreign) as managing agents of the state-owned plantations.
4. Depending on the elevation of growth, tea in Sri Lanka is divided into two categories such as high grown and low grown. Tea growing was earlier concentrated in the mid elevations (600-1,200 meters) and higher elevations (1,200 meters and above). Tea growing has extended to low elevations (600 meters and below) gradually. The distribution of tea lands in Sri Lanka is mainly among the Central hills, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Southern districts of Galle and Matara and in some areas of the south-western slopes of the island as shown in figure 3.2
Figure 3.2 Distribution of Tea land in Sri Lanka
Other field crops (except fruit and vegetables, cereals and groundnuts)
Fruit and vegetables
Table 3.1 Land area under agriculture in Sri Lanka in year 2000
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Table 3.2 Areas of Tea cultivation in Sri Lanka (1980 - 2000)
5. Agricultural exports contribute 19 % in total export earnings. Agricultural exports grew by 10% in 2004 reflecting the higher performance of the three major crops. Tea was benefited by higher prices. Tea prices increased by 7 % to US dollars 2.46 per Kg in 2004 : mainly due to an increased demand for low grown tea from the Middle- East, Russia and other former Soviet Block countries.
Table 3.3 World percentage Share of Tea Exports
Figure 3.3 World exports of tea
ROLE OF TEA IN ECONOMY OF SRI LANKA
6. Sri Lanka is one of the largest Tea export commodity according to the Table 3.3. In 1996 the tea sector contributed 15 per cent of total export value. Manufactured garments have emerged as the leading single export product in Sri Lanka. Export earnings of the tea sector in 2008 as compared to the other sectors are shown in table 3.4.
Value in SDR million.
Percentage of total exports
Other export crops
Gems and jewellery
Textile and garments
Table 3.4 Total export earnings in Sri Lanka in 2008
Figure 3.4 Percentage of world exports earning of tea in 2009
WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?
7. The climate change mean by a weather pattern changes in one direction over long periods of time, then it can result in a climate change for that area. Natural changes in climate usually occur over such long periods of time that they are often not noticed within several human lifetimes. This gradual nature of the changes in climate enables the plants, animals, and microorganisms on earth to evolve and adapt to the new climate such as new temperatures, new rainfalls and precipitation patterns, etc.
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
8. Rapidly change of climate is the real threat in occurs. For example, over the past 130 years from 1861 to 1991 as shown in figure 4.2, the global temperature to have risen 0.6 to 1.2 oF (0.3 to 0.7 oC). The rapid increasing of the curve from 1911 onwards suggests that changes in mean global temperature at greater rates over time. Further mean global temperature will increases in future at a rate of 0.4 oF (0.2 oC) each decade. The physical evidence of the results of processes that have occurred on Earth since it was formed climate changes similar in magnitude in the graph.
9. However, they were spread out over long periods of time, because of the past changes occurred at much slower rates. The slow rate of climate change is privilege to adapt to the new climate. The current rates of temperature change are much faster than those of Earth's past such as plants, animals, and microorganisms may not have enough time to adapt to the new climate.
Figure 3.5 Global Temperature Changes (1880 - 2000)
REASON BEHIND THE CLIMATE CHANGE
10. Factors behind climate changes, these include such processes as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift, and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations.
a. Plate tectonics
The motion of tectonic plates over the millions of years re-configures global land, ocean areas and generates topography. The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate.
b. Solar output
The major source which energy input to the Earth is predominant by sun. Therefore, both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are tends to affect global climate.
c. Orbital variations
Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to large scale changes distribution of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and how it is distributed across the globe. There are three types of orbital variations such as variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis so that combined together, these produce a large impact on climate.
Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes which release gases and/or particulates into the atmosphere.
e. Ocean variability
The ocean is playing a fantastic roll of the climate change. On longer time scales, ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.
f. Human influences
Some human activities that can be changed the environment directly and unambiguously. Presently, the scientific consensus that human activity is the cause for rapid increase average temperatures over the past several decades in global.
The CO2 level increase is the anthropogenic factors of most concern in these due to emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors such as land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation are also concern in the roles they play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate variables.
Figure 3.6 Increases in Atmospheric CO2 Levels
WHY IS SOUTH ASIA VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
11. High levels of poverty and population density has made South Asia especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The monsoons and their associated droughts and floods are expected to become more intense with climate change.
12. South Asia's population is likely to exceed 2.2 billion from the current level of 1.5 billion by 2050. About 75% of South Asians are poor and account for about 70% of people lives in rural areas. About 60% of the rural poor people depend on agriculture and contributes only 22% of regional GDP. A large concentration of poverty, high population densities and climate variability have all combined to make South Asia highly sensitive to the consequences of climate change.
Figure 3.7 South Asia population projections
CLIMATE IN SRI LANKA
13. Sri Lanka is influenced by the four distinct season's monsoons. North-east monsoon brings rain in the northern and eastern regions in December and February and south-west monsoon get rain from May to September in the western, southern and central regions of the island. In south-west monsoonsome of the windward slopes receive up to 250 centimeters of rain per month, but the leeward slopes in the northeast and east receive little rain. The northeastern slopes of the mountains may be inundated with up to 125 centimeters of rain during North-east monsoon.
Figure 3.8 Four seasonal rainfall in Sri Lanka
14. The inter-monsoonal months are occurs in October and November and periodic squalls, sometimes tropical cyclones bring overcast skies. Another inter-monsoonal period occurs from March until mid-May, with light, variable winds and evening thundershowers.
15. Sri Lanka is positioned between 5 and 10 north latitude endows the country with a warm climate, moderated by ocean winds and considerable moisture.The average yearly temperature in Sri Lanka from 28 to 32oC. The mean low temperature is 16°C in Nuwara - Eliya on Central Highlands and high of 32oC in Trincomalee on the northeast coast. The coastal areas are cooled by sea breezes. Day and night temperatures may vary by 4 to 7 oC.
Average Annual Max Temperature
Average Annual Min
Figure 3.9 Average temperatures in Sri Lanka
DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN SRI LANKA AND TEA INDUSTRY
Sri Lanka is an island over the area of 65,525 Sq. km. It located between 6 - 10 of north latitude and between 80 - 82 of east longitude. It has maximum length of 432 km (Devundara to Point Peduru) and maximum width 224 km (Colombo - Sangamankanda). Three zones can be divided by its distinguished elevation such as central highland, plains, and the coastal belt.
Change of climate has been occurring at an accelerated rate as a result of human activities such as fossil fuel burnings, change of land use practices, emission of industrial gases etc. The global warming of the earth-atmosphere is brought by enhanced greenhouse effect and it makes the surface of the earth some 33 oC warmer. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 has rapidly been increased from 280 ppm in industrial era to 365 ppm at present.
MONSOON RAINFALL VARIABILITY
Northeast monsoon rainfall variability over Sri Lanka has been increased from 1931 - 1960 to 1961-1990 periods, Southwest monsoon rainfall variability has been decreased during 1961-1990 compared to 1931-1960. But, annual average of rainfall over Sri Lanka has been increased from 234 to 263 mm during 1931 to 1960 period with the standard deviation and during 1961 to 1990 period compared, it was 7% decreased by an amount of 144 mm. However, high variability of annual rainfall is reported at Baticaloa, Kurunegala, and Rathnapura meteorological stations in the recent past compared to other meteorological stations.
CV (1931-60) %
CV (1961-90) %
Table 4.1 Variability of all Sri Lanka rainfall during the period of 1931-60 and 1961-90
Table 4.2 Average Rainfall (mm) in Nuwara Eliya during period of 2001 - 2010
Table 4.3 Average Rainfall (mm) in Rathnapura during period of 2001 - 2010
Annual mean temperature has shown significant increasing trends during the recent few decades in Sri Lanka. The rate of increase of mean temperature is 0.016 oC per year for the period of 1961-1990. Annual mean maximum temperatures have increased in almost all stations with the rate of about 0.021 oC per year. Annual mean minimum temperatures also have increased with higher gradients with the rate of about 0.02 oC per year. It has been evident that increase in average annual surface temperatures across the country.
Table 4.4 Average Temperature (oC) in Nuwara Eliya during period of 2001 - 2010
Table 4.5 Average Temperature (oC) in Rathnapura during period of 2001 - 2010
FLOODS AND LAND SLIDE
Floods are caused by heavy down pour of rainwater particularly in all seasons, monsoons and inter monsoons. A flood happens an area of land is covered with water, when a river overflows. Some floods develop slowly, sometimes over a period of days. But, flash floods can develop quickly, sometimes in just a few minutes and it does often have very dangerous when a dam breaks.
Houses partially damaged
Table 4.6 Flood areas in Sri Lanka
DATA RELATED TO TEA INDUSTRY
6. The export trade in Sri Lanka has been given the highest priority since the late 1970s with the introduction of export oriented manufacturing and trading activities for achieving economic prosperity in the country. During the last two decades, Sri Lanka has experienced a steady expansion in the sector which has resulted in a significant increase in export and import trade.
Tea Production Kg mn
Table 4.7 Sri Lanka Tea-Production 1996 - 2008 (Million Kilograms)
THE CHANGES IN CLIMATE PARAMETERS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
TEA INDUSTRY IN SRI LANKA
THE CHANGES IN CLIMATE PARAMETERS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON
TEA INDUSTRY IN SRI LANKA
The technological advances made on improved crop management, irrigation, plant protection and fertilization, weather and climate are still key factors in tea productivity in Sri Lanka. Farming systems and agronomic practices in most agricultural regions of Sri Lanka have evolved in close harmony with the prevailing climatic conditions of respective climatic regions of the island. Climate of the island has changed such as correct amount of rainfall does not come at the correct time of the growing seasons, variability of both south-west and
North-east monsoon rains and rains of convectional origin have increased significantly during recent decades. Furthermore, increasing ambient temperature is also inflicting several direct and indirect negative impacts on the tea productivity.
The impact of climate change on any tea growing region depends how and what intensity the rainfall regime in a given area is variable along with the increasing environmental temperature of the same area.
IMPACTS DUE TO CHANGES ON RAINFALL REGIME
Considering above collected data, it is a well known fact that annual rainfall in Sri Lanka has shown a neither significant increasing nor decreasing trend except a few locations. However, variability of seasonal rainfall has increased during recent decades especially with respect to the northeast monsoon. But, in some case occurred extreme rainfall due to climate change, soil erode, floods and land slide, wash away fertilizer and other chemicals has become a common features of the of Sri Lanka and under such situations, crops losses in terms of quantitatively and qualitatively are inevitable.
Given the physical conditions of most of the great soil groups that are being used for tea industrial activities in Sri Lanka, even a small negative departure of expected rainfall is likely to several cause, it will be so detrimental to the intensive production systems.
IMPACTS DUE TO INCREASED AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
Being a tropical island with uniformly high temperature regime, most of the cultivated crops in Sri Lanka operate at a near maximum of the optimum temperature range of respective crops. Thus, quality and production of crop are damages due to high temperature in Sri Lankan tea industry under a changing climate. It is well established fact that high temperature injuries in tea industry such as drought damage, soil moisture depletion, premature desiccation of crop, reduce water for irrigation, water precipitation, if the plant is exposed to an ambient temperature that exceeds 35 oC.
Recent observations of average Temperature (oC) in Nuwara Elliya and Rathnapura area during period of 2001 - 2010 (Table 4 and 5) have confirmed that frequency of such temperature events has increased significantly in both Dry and Intermediate zones. Decreased diurnal temperature regime at almost all locations of the country, especially due to the increasing nighttime minimum temperature, is likely to cause negative impacts on increased insect damages and infestation by all kind of pathogens such as bacteria, virus and fungi, quality and production of the tea leave, in the country.
IMPACTS DUE TO OTHER RESONS
When there is not enough water to support agricultural, human or environmental water needs, call a drought period. A drought can be caused by drying or anything that reduces the amount of water available. The effects of drought vary greatly depending on agricultural, urban and environmental water needs. The droughts in Sri Lanka are caused by a number of reasons like failure of monsoons and increasing the temperature.
Flood and Land slide
Extreme amount of positive rainfall is likely to be caused of flood and land slide. It may occurs severe damages to existing irrigation infrastructures and thus, limiting the water availability for crop production of tea industry that are under irrigation. Even though storing water prolonger time in tea growing area due to flood condition, tea crop tends to wrack and low productivity.
THE IMPACT OF FUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TEA INDUSTRY
Future Scenarios of Rainfall
Extreme events would be more intense and more frequent with the climate change due manly to variability of rainfall. In addition, wet areas get wetter and wetter and dry areas get drier and drier with the climate change. According to the results obtained, it is clearly seen that the southwest monsoon rainfall, which usually confines to the western and south-western parts of the island and the northeast monsoon rainfall over the eastern and northern areas is projected to increase particularly in the years 2025.
Future Scenarios of Temperature
The global mean temperature is projected to be risen in the range of 1.4 - 5.8 oC by the year 2100 under the different emission scenarios and it is revealed that the mean temperature during the northeast monsoon and southwest seasons is projected to increase about 2.9 oC and 2.5 oC respectively by the year 2100.
POSSIBLE RESPONSE STRATEGIES TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TEA INDUSTRY
Being a developing country, the most appropriate response strategy for climate change is adaptation activities rather than mitigation exercises or follows combination of both of them as long as it success goals. But, given the situation of local environment, the most practical and sustainable response strategy available for tea industry is the adaptation. The following list that may be adapted by different aspect to minimize the vulnerability to climate change in tea growing area.
Suggested Adaptation Technical Strategies
Change irrigation method
Promote micro-irrigation (drip, sprinkler etc.)
Rehabilitation of minor tanks and irrigation canal network
Re-use of drainage water, if suitable
intensive irrigation management practices wherever possible
Make farmers aware of climate change
promote farmers on soil and moisture conservation practices
Promote to soil test based fertilizer application
promote to improve the water use and conveyance efficiency
Change land use pattern in land slide area
Use genetically modified Plant
Develop drought resistant tea varieties
Develop high temperature resistance tea varieties
Develop pest and disease resistance tea varieties
Suggested Adaptation Policy Strategies
Implementation of the Soil Conservation Act
Strict enforcement of National Environmental Act and other related ordinances
Adoption of proper national land use policy
Easy credit schemes
Soil and moisture conservation
High quality Plants
Large scale drainage improvement projects
Effective use of long range weather forecasting for agricultural planning
Introduce effective marketing strategy
Introduce government policy on every aspect of the economy lasting for a few decades ahead.
However, some of these proposed strategies are not new to our farming community and they are already in practice. But, there is a timely need of implementing them in a coordinated and systematic manner and sustainable way to address the climatic change issues. There may also be re-evaluated the existing methodologies and introduce new concepts applicable to tea industry by responsible implementing agency with possible precautions to avoid cost effect.
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
In conclusion, it is reveled that variability of southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon rainfall is projected to increase in the future. Rainfall change is higher during the southwest monsoon season than the northeast monsoon season. Much higher increments are noticed on the windward side of the central hills in each monsoon and less increment is noticed on the leeward side. Therefore there is a strong possibility of having water scarcity problems in the tea growing regions where the rainfall is less especially on the leeward side of the central hills and adjoin areas in each monsoon due to the population growth and increasing demand for water in the future. This situation may be aggravated as the mean temperatures are also projected to be increased with the increase of various reasons. Apart from the direct impact of increased variability of rainfall and rise of ambient temperature, indirect effects of increased rainfall intensities are of special significance in terms of land degradation which has a significant bearing on the crop production in Sri Lanka. But, it is too early to generalize that such threats would not occur in the future.
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3. The variability of rainfalls and increasing temperature that could seriously be affected especially in the tea industry and therefore some adaptation measures which was discussed above need to be taken in order to cope with the anticipated climate change.
4. Developing the Sri Lankan tea industry such as quality tea, owned brands to local and overseas markets with a view to ensuring the long term sustainability of the tea industry is very essential. The development of Sri Lankan tea industry to withstand on climate change will also be contribute towards creating greater stability and value for Sri Lankan companies engaged in export. The strategy poses a challenge to Sri Lankan firms and is touch to achieve, but the benefits are substantial particularly in the long run. However, before it is too late the administration should support such an endeavour in order to create further value to the industry, to improve the economy of Sri Lanka.