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The Logistics Industry Planning in Ruoqiang, Xinjiang Province
Chapter 2: The Theoretical Review of the Logistics Parks’ Planning Theory
2.1 The Theoretical Review of the Logistics Parks’ Planning Method
A long-term construction period together with the complexity during construction is the main characteristic in building logistics parks. Building a logistic park needs huge funds, and it is not profit-making in a short time. Now under a fiercely competitive market, it is even more important to conduct the planning method studying, especially when during the actual construction process, lots of problems’ arising are due to a lack of reasonable planning methods. In China, such problems and misunderstandings are: (1) blindly enclosing the land; (2) little theoretical studying on logistics parks’ planning method; (3) lack of planning basis; (4) no clear knowledge on logistics parks’ function; (5) lack of in-depth investigation on market demands.
2.1.1 Logistics Parks’ Planning Methods: Current Research Situation in Foreign Countries
MSFLB Model: currently there are few foreign scholars focusing on logistics park planning methods. The main planning methods are summarized by the Fraunhofer Research Institute of Germany. They studied many typical international logistics parks’ planning and construction process and summed up the common features as five steps. MSFLB are in fact the acronyms of the following five steps: Market Study, Strategic Positioning, Function Design, Layout Design and Business Plan.
2.1.2 Logistics Parks’ Planning Methods: Current Research Situation in China
(1) Planning method based on Highway Transportation Network: by adopting a “two-stage” studying method, the researcher firstly locate the site of logistic park according to city logistic volume and distribution features. Then in stage two, based on the principle of minimal logistic and road network capacity-expansion cost, they bring in the bi-level programming model to put urban logistic park planning into the whole urban transportation network planning system, so as to reflect the road network’s influence to the layout of urban logistic parks.
(2) Planning method based on the Industrial Park: this planning method follows a series of stages such as function positioning, planning and designing concept, function structure, and road traffic organization concept. Each of the above-mentioned stages also contains a series of influencing factors respectively, so this planning method is a special one. 
(3) Planning method based on urban facilities: the designer adopts the urban planning method to conduct logistics parks project. The city function orientation, layout planning, transportation planning and a series of other specific planning methods are applied into the logistics parks planning process, so as to make sure it goes on smoothly and comprehensively.
(4) Planning method base on weight coefficient: Chinese scholar Zhang Qian considered the main factors of the regional distribution park and by using objective evaluation method, he set up a regional distribution park planning model. Then by conducting an overall evaluation on regional distribution park’s planning based on weight coefficient, he fixed the optimal scheme and applied this chosen scheme into actual planning of logistics parks. 
2.1.3 Current Research Situation of the Logistic Parks in Xinjiang Province
Generally speaking, the economic development in Xinjiang province still remains relatively underdeveloped, and thus a gap does exist between other eastern provinces and Xinjiang in logistics industrial development. Currently, there are several Chinese scholars focusing on the studying of the logistics industry development in Xinjiang province. Scholar Tangmin from Xinjiang University published his article “A Study on the Relationship between the Logistics Industry Development and the Economic Growth in Xinjiang Province”, in which he studied the logistics overall situation, supply and demand situation in Xinjiang, based on Xinjiang’s regional features and economic development levels. He also conducted a qualitative and quantitative research on the relation between logistics development and economic growth, and gave several suggestions on how to promote the logistics industry development in Xinjiang province . Fangmin and Ying Shaomin in their article “Thoughts on the Informatization of the Logistics Industry of Xinjiang Province” pointed out the necessity to carry on the informatization construction process as well as offered some suggestions . Wu Jing from Shihezi University listed some problems in Xinjiang logistics industry development in his article “Research on Logistics Industry and Economic Development in Xinjiang Province”, and offered some practical solutions. Ge Ju and Jiang Zhiqing in their article “Prediction and Analyzing on the Logistics Demand in Xinjiang Province” pointed out the influential factors of logistics demand based on their analysis on the characteristics of the logistics industry in Xinjiang . From the literary review above, it is clear that many scholars have already conducted research on Xinjiang logistics industry. However, a practical logistics park planning method suitable for the economic development and meeting the market demand in Xinjiang province has not yet been formed.
2.1.4 Analysis on the Planning Method
220.127.116.11 The Concept of the Planning Method and the Current Theories
Planning method has always been highlighted since the middle of the 19th century, and the pioneers are some scholars studying land economics and regional geography, such as Edgar Hoover, Johann von Thuen, August Loseh, Melvin Greenhut, Walte Isard and T. Palander. In planning decision process, transportation cost was the common subject for those earlier studies. Though many concepts were already formed under the condition in agricultural and pre-industrial society, but those scholars still used them. The improvement and development of the subjects of operational research and logistics provide chances for facilities planning method, which were thus not limited to pure theoretical studies; instead, more practical mathematical models were set up. During the planning process, the following methods are usually adopted:
(1) The mathematic analysis planning method: this solution combines weight and distance, putting the two factors as the coordinate points, and logistics nodes the variables. The final solution scheme is to determine the coordinate position of the logistics nodes through coordinate and mathematic analyzing methods;
(2) Linear optimization planning method: this solution’s advantage is its effective optimization technique, so usually it is adopted as a tool in strategic logistics planning. Under certain restraints, this method could help you choose a best solution scheme from many alternatives.
(3) Analog simulation technology planning method: this solution could put the computer’s three-dimensional simulation technology into the actual application in logistic parks’ planning and designing, and fix the planning of logistic nodes. At present, there are two simulation technologies, namely, static simulation and dynamic simulation.
2.2 The Theoretical Review of the Logistics Parks’ Planning Technology
In logistic parks planning, now many scholars at home and abroad have made intensive study about the following four parts: demand prediction, site selection, land scale confirming and park function. Many of their research findings have been put into practical use successfully, and we have got some successful cases for our reference. Thus, this paper will give you a literary review on these theoretical research results as well as some successful cases.
2.2.1 Logistics Parks’ Planning Technology: Current Research Situation in Foreign Countries
18.104.22.168 Planning Technology of Demand Prediction
(1) Multinomial Probit Model: Scholar Rodrigo A. Garrido and Hani S. Mahmassani (2000) have forecasted freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit model .
(2) Multivariate Cointegrating Vector Auto Regressive Model: Mudit Kulshreshtha and other scholars have made the freight time sequence data as their research objective, evidenced by field study on Indian railways. They introduced the multivariate cointegrating vector auto regressive model into freight transport demand prediction.
22.214.171.124 Planning Technology of Site Selection
Regarding the site selection theory and method study of logistic parks, few cases could be applied for our references. At present, some research results are related to distribution centers, logistic centers and warehouse location, while in existing foreign documents, there is hardly any mention about the basis argumentation on logistic parks’ site selection.
126.96.36.199 Planning Technology of Land Scale Confirming
(1) Operational Research Model: based on operational research theory, scholars such as Weber (1929), Beckman (1968) and Drener  (1995) have made studies on logistic parks land scale.
(2) Integral Programming Model: Scholar Noritake and Kimura  (1990) have brought forward the integral programming model to estimate seaport logistics land scale.
188.8.131.52 Research on the Function of Logistic Parks’ Planning
In comparison, currently more researches have been conducted on the micro-layout planning of the logistic park than on its internal function designing [20-21].
2.2.2 Logistics Parks’ Planning Technology: Current Research Situation in China
184.108.40.206 Planning Technology of Demand Prediction
(1) Unary Linear Regression Analysis Model: base on value volume and objective volume, Chinese scholars Liu Changxiu, Zhang Wuyi and Lin Qiang chose the unary linear regression analysis method to forecast the comprehensive cargo volume of Yunnan province and demonstrated that the total logistics cost of Yunnan province appeared an increasing tendency with rapid growth of comprehensive cargo volume .
(2) Grey Prediction Model: Chinese scholars Han Yanhui, Wang Yanlin and Chen Chao analyzed the types of main industries in Erduos region and predicted the output of cargoes of main industries with grey prediction method. The results showed that the output of cargoes of main industries would keep fast increasing speed in the future .
(3) MATLAB Software Model: Chinese scholars Tang Zhongming and Fu Xinping illustrated the basic principle of applying MATLAB software to predict logistics demand, and successfully conducted a rapid prediction on periodicity tendency logistics demand on the MATLAB platform , and forecasted freight transportation demand with the space-time multinomial probit model .
(4) MLP Neural Network Forecasting Model: base on their studies on MLP artificial neural network, Chinese scholars Hou Rui and Zhang Bi brought a regional logistics demand forecasting model. This model not only explained the nonlinear relationship between regional economy and regional logistics demand but also put forward a new idea and methodology for regional logistics demand forecasting .
(5) Combination Forecasting Model: based on the principle of the least error absolute value, Chinese scholars Chu Liangyong, Tian Zhiguang and Xie Xinlian combined the regression analysis, grey forecasting and neural network to form a combination forecasting model in logistics demand. They verified the model with concrete example. The result of error analysis showed that it considerably improved precision of forecast and manifested the validities of forecasting of logistics demand .
220.127.116.11 Planning Technology of Site Selection
(1) Center of Gravity Method: Chinese scholars Wang Qionglin and Zhang Tingting used Goolge Earth software and carried out the logistic parks’ site location by using the method of center-of-gravity. They also evaluated each candidate address by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to derive the optimal address .
(2) Factor Analysis Method: Chinese scholars Zou Xiaoping and Guan Dongmei put forward the method of choosing Logistics Park by factor analysis method. Using this method, the conductor first chooses each candidate address’s influencing factor, then they grade each candidate scheme based on those factors, and at last, they calculate the total points of candidate scheme, namely, the whole weight of the candidate scheme. The final site scheme is the one with the highest total weight .
(3) A-F Method: based on combing commonly used comprehensive evaluation methods in logistics parks location, Chinese scholars Ji Dan and Guo Zheng made comparative study on many factors, and they drew the conclusion that each single evaluation method has its own advantages and disadvantages, thus they should be integrated, in which the A-F method (Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fussy Comprehensive Evaluation Method) has a relatively better promotion value.
(4) CFLP Model: Chinese scholar Xu Chengtie, Zhu Xiaoning and Xu Xiaobing analyzed the principles for distribution-centered logistics parks’ planning and based on this, they suggested the CFLP (Capacitated Facility Location Problem) model and offered a quantitative processing method for site location problem .
(5) Non-Structural Fuzzy Optimal Model: Chinese scholar Tan Minjun and Wang Xiong comprehensively considered various factors influencing the logistics parks site location in the decision-making process. By using a non-structural fuzzy optimal theory, they fixed the candidate addresses weight and determined the final site by the size of each vector quantity .
(6) Combined Evaluation Model: Chinese scholars Zhang Dezhi and Xie Ruhe offered a combined evaluation model. Compared with former traditional calculating method, this model enjoys a better applicability .
2.3 Brief Summary of this Chapter
This chapter is the theoretical part of the whole dissertation. Firstly, a theoretical literary review on logistics parks’ planning methods is given and the author makes a comparative analysis on the typical logistics parks’ planning methods at home and abroad, summaries the characteristics of those planning methods and specifies their scopes of application. Then, a theoretical literary review on logistics parks’ planning technology is offered. The author studies on the planning technologies’ current research situation from the following four aspects: demand prediction, site selection, land scale confirming and the function of logistics parks’ planning, then the author analyzes the four planning technologies’ importance degree. Finally, based on the detailed theoretical literary review on logistics parks’ planning method and technology, this chapter lays the foundation for the planning method of Xinjiang logistics parks.