Correlation Between Crude Oil Pricing And Kse 100 Finance Essay
The objective of this paper is to find out the co relation and effect of one variable (crude oil prices) to other variable (kse-100). It’s observed that when the prices of crude oil are changed in market the Karachi stock index is also changed with respect to the crude oil. The matter is to find out that is there any co relation in between kse-100 and crude oil prices if, it exist so what is the percent of change. In other words we want to see that if there is entire relation in changing the ratio, the investor can take their action on the basis of this research. The research is conduct to find out the reason of sudden change in Karachi stock index, which is directly affected by the petroleum sector or by the changing of crude oil price. Research is based on the fluctuation of crude oil prices (the shares price of those companies which deals in crude oil) impact on Karachi stock index. We also find out the causes of rises in prices of consumer goods. Research is conduct to elaborate the reasons of inflations of consumer goods and the direct and indirect impact of crude oil prices on consumer goods and Karachi stock market return. We know that the increase in crude oil prices causes decrease in earning of the firm earning, so the stock market prices of firm also decline, and this brought about immediate decline in stock prices. The sudden change in stock index causes the heavily profit taking and uncertain condition of capital market. The prices of a particular stock also depend on the price trend of particular industry sectors, if the sectors prices are going upward the impact of their sentiments will definitely proposed directly, we see this trend particularly while the trend of oil prices going upward the directly prices goes up, and vice versa.
1.2 Problem statement
It’s observed that when there is increase in crude oil price as the result the Karachi stock index is also appreciate with respect the price of petroleum sector. We means by the crude oil price (the shares price of those companies which deals in crude oil). What happen actually when the prices of crude oil increase, the cost of production increase and it impact on consumer goods as increases in prices, the indirect impact of increasing prices negatively affect on the economy. When the prices of consumer goods are sudden increases the purchasing power of a person does not increase so decrease in purchasing power causes decrease in consumption, which further slows down the economy. Pakistan depends on import of oil for running its economic machinery; the main source of industrial fuel is based on crude oil. Although we are producer of gas from our natural resource but it does not meet the whole sole consumption of fuel and power. That’s why the direct and indirect impact of crude oil prices on economy is negatively causes when the price factor is increase. The oil as input factor for cost of production, react directly to the prices of commodity. Especially while the prices of oil are being increased, so for it cause the reason of inflation and instability of the economy. The objective is to study about the stock market volatility factors, such as political stability, law and order situations, the peace and justice condition in the country. There are some internal (Controllable) and external (uncontrollable) factors effecting the index and prices of the stocks. We conduct this research by taking the entire uncontrollable factor constant, to read out the price changing effect of crude oil prices on the other stock and on the kse-100 index. The sudden change in Karachi stock index disturbs the investor some time it provide very high profit taking. The controllable factors of Karachi stock market are driven by the petroleum sector, particularly in case of OGDC when the price increase the kse-100 index also increase. The petroleum sector is also called the market leader. It’s mainly observed it in Karachi stock market, where index is usually dependent on the oil sectors. We means by the crude oil price (the shares price of those companies which deals in crude oil), OGDCL , PSO, PPL and POL. There are also some other script related to the energy like gasses and refineries who has the alternative impact on the market index.
The increase in crude oil price positively impact on KSE-100 index (weekly basis).
The decrease in crude oil prices negatively impact on KSE-100 index (weekly basis).
Outline of the study
The impact of change in crude oil prices on certain macroeconomics variables such as, real GDP growth rates, inflation, employment and exchange rate is also relate to our study area to monitor the change in purchasing power of common man by rises in crude oil prices. What happen actually when the prices of crude oil increase the inflation take place in society in general consumer goods which can observe with in few days of changing price of crude oil. The consumption when decrease the demand ultimately declines which causes the increase in unemployment and fall down the economy. The reason of inflation is due to the higher cost of cost of production, and immediately rises in the fuel expenses and other transportation mediums. The objective of paper is to study the stock market volatility spillover, the highly volatile market thread the investor to invest frequently in the market. Although the market is affected by the controllable and uncontrollable factor, the external factors are not controllable but the firm can minimize the risk from controllable factors. The controllable factors for any firm are raw material, fuel, expanses. The fuel is including gas, oil, coal, and other factor of energy producing. The investors in Karachi stock are very conscious due to the high volatility in index, some time this is due to the political conditions and due to the victimization of terrorism. The uncertainty in the country and the terrorism in city also disturb the investors approach. The uncontrollable factor although change the index, but mean while it’s covered with time period and stability allocations. The causes of highly fluctuation of stock index due to the change in price of crude oil the small investor which have no more capacity to step buying and some time they lose their money when they are trading on the debit credit system.
Crude oil sector: involve the shares price of major contributing companies as OGDC, PPL, POL, and PSO.
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
Eryigit, (2009) Test the impact of Oil Price on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. In this article the author examine the relationship of change in turkey stock index due to the change in oil prices. The energy sectors oil price used to calculate the effects of the oil price on indexes (Istanbul Stock Exchange). Statistical data is taken from 2000.01.04 to 2008.01.11.On daily basis. According to the results oil price changes have statistically significant effects on consumer goods. All statistically significant effects coefficients are positive. Some of these coefficients were expected to be negative, Such as transportation should be negative. When the oil price increase, the cost of transportation will increase and it is expected that oil price increasing has negatively impact on firms’ stock prices.
Jones and Gautam, (1996) Test the impact of international stock markets on oil shocks during Iraq and Kuwait war, in both the United Kingdom and Japan. In fact, based on statistical and qualitative analyses, Hamilton argues that we must give a causal interpretation to the correlation between oil prices and macroeconomic phenomena. The researcher tests of whether stock prices react rationally. The research experienced of four countries the United States, Japan, Canada, and United Kingdom to gauge the effects of oil shocks on different economies. The result shows that stock returns have a strong positive relation with current and future cash flows in all four countries. These results appear to be robust to measurement errors in oil prices, inflation, and real cash flow variables used in this study. It’s concluded that the postwar oil shocks appear to have generated volatility in the Japanese and U.K. stock markets that is in "excess" of what can be explained by existing rational models.
Helliwell and Robert, (1982) the researcher test the Stabilization, Allocation and the 1970s Oil Price Shocks. Researcher test that the prices of gasoline respond very quickly specially in increases than decreases the crude oil price. The prices of gasoline or other petroleum supporting fuel material’s also impact the prices of crude oil and it disturb the correlation of crude oil prices and stock market index. The researcher elaborates how switches between different economic regimes for the G-7 countries are in general not satisfactory. The research papers focused on one common thing, that the impact of oil prices change on stocks prices impact on short term but it does not change the price of stock in long run. The paper analyze the stabilization and allocation effects of two types of policy adopted by Canada in the 1970s to shelter the domestic economy from the 1973-74 and 1979-80 shocks in world oil prices. It’s proposed to analyze the effects of these policies on allocation, and to see to what extent there could be said to have been a tradeoff. The equation structure of the macro block of model is reproduced, which estimates of the allocation and stabilization effects of three alternative Canadian energy pricing strategies. Researcher summarized the results and point out some of the implications and shortcomings of our analysis. The one important missing parameter in research paper is the absence of correlation factor of oil prices change with other factors of economy. Borenstein and Richard, (1997)the researcher disclose the causes of 1990-1991 Persian Gulf crisis and other recent oil market disruptions have brought to attention the response of retail gasoline prices to fluctuations in world oil prices. Some observers have asserted that the prices of gasoline react quickly in increasing trend the crude oil prices than decreases. Even when the production and distribution process occurs wholly within one firm, a company faces opportunity costs at every point in the process. The United States gasoline production and distribution process in greater detail and, in this context, discuss the sources and appropriateness of the data analyze. By analyzing the price response at each level of distribution, and distinguish between the competing explanations for the asymmetric response. Wholesale gasoline prices respond about equally quickly to decreases as to increases in spot prices for generic gasoline. The SRVY variables are dummy variables for the particular survey of the year, with P equal to 24 for semi-monthly data and equal to 52 for weekly data, from March 1986 through the end of 1992. The data used begin from March 1986. A one cent per gallon increase in the price of oil is estimated to increase gasoline prices by 0.55? Combining these two transmissions, it’s find out that wholesale gasoline prices respond significantly faster to crude price increases than to decreases.
Rotemberg and Michael, (l996) Observed the changes in price of oil on world markets which have a significant role in economic activity. Fewer research attempts investigate the effects of oil-price changes on asset prices, such as stock prices or stock returns. On theoretical grounds, oil price shocks affect stock market returns or prices through their effect on expected earnings (Jones et al., 2004). It can argue that an exogenous increase in factor of production may reduce the quantity (supplied) of final output. Researcher find out how structural shocks are characterize the endogenous character of oil price changes impact on stock-market returns in eight countries — Australia, France, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Researcher used vector auto regression model to analyze oil-price changes in three components oil-supply shocks, global aggregate demand of oil, and global oil demand shocks. Researcher fined out international stock market returns do not responding in a large sense to oil market shocks.
Fazilah and Bhat, (2009) Elaborate the effect of oil prices changes on the stock price of petroleum soctor companies in three different markets (US, India and UK). Data is used on the daily basis. The relation between the prices of oil and stock prices discuss the economic variables such as interest rates and industrial products. For example, Hamilton (1983) interprets the relation of oil price and the Gross National Product (GNP). Three stock markets are selected: New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), London Stock Exchange (LSE) and the National Stock Exchange India (NSE) The six stocks of oil companies two each from the above three stock exchanges are chosen for research completion. The selection of the oil companies based on the performance and thus those having the height return on Equity (ROE). The daily interest rates and industrial productions are used as control variables in the analysis. The Co integration of variables is tested using Vector Auto Regressive and Error Correction Method. The results show that the standard error of the equation provides a measure of how different the predicted values of the dependent variable are from the actual values. In general, smaller values are better because they indicate a tighter fitting model (less dispersion about the regression line). The results show there is short run and long run relationship in between the oil price and oil stocks. The price of oil volatility has a definite impact on the volatility of stocks of oil.
MAGHYEREH and Aktham, (2004) IN this paper the researcher find out the relationship between oil prices and stock index. The stock market data in this paper are obtained from Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI). The sample is daily encompasses the period from 1 January 1998 to 31 April 2004. And stock market indices for the following 22 emerging countries. The daily closing prices for crude oil Brent for the period from 1 January 1995 to 31 April 2004 are obtained from the U.S. Energy information. Vector auto regression (VAR) approach used in this study. The results show some interesting differences across countries in response to the oil market shocks, depending on the energy intensity of consumption and production. The impact of oil shocks on stock market is highest in the largest Asian and Emerging Europe economies, as they have higher energy Intensity consumption than most other emerging economies. These results suggest that stock markets in the emerging economies are inefficient in transmission of new information of the oil market. E. Day and Craig, (1997) the researcher examine in this research paper the crude oil future prices impact on initial margin. Dramatic short run increases in the volatility of stock market in October 1987 shows the relation between initial mar-gin requirements and market volatility. The data used to research daily closing prices of crude oil futures, From November 14, 1986 to March 18, 1991. Result evidence shows that although increases and decreases in margin requirements are preceded by significant changes in futures market volatility. Hamilton, (1983)in this research paper the author discuss about the causes of United states inflation after world war 2. The rate of growth of real GNP has fallen from an average of 4.0 percent, the 7.6 percent average inflation rate. The average unemployment rate over 6.7 percent was higher than in any year between 1948 and 1972.Recessions in the United States have been preceded by a dramatic increase in the price of crude. The correlation between oil price increases and real output can be explained as correlation between endogenous macro variables. Lev, (1979) elaborates the impact of oil and gas companies on stock market. Many of the arguments raised in this controversy touched on the impact of the proposed accounting change on capital markets. To provide evidence on the market impact, the behavior of stock prices of oil and gas companies was analyzed in this study. The data was selected of different countries to asses the test like London, New York, Washington dc etc. Daily closing stock prices for each sampled firm were collected for a 78- trading-days period. The most Full Cost exploration oriented companies and a significant increase in the volatility of such earnings. Results indicate that the release of the exposure draft was associated with a decline of about 4.5 percent, on average, in the stock prices of "full cost" companies during a period of three days succeeding the release of the exposure draft. Rajgopal, (1999) The Commodity Price Risk Exposure of petroleum soctors. This finding claim that the risk of new market disclosures do not exactly reflect the firms' risk. The firms are free to choose one of three reporting options to make these disclosures: (1) tabular presentation (2) sensitivity analysis and (3) value at risk. The results confirm that commodity price risk is similar to those required by SEC (1997) are, in general, associated with the market's perception of oil and gas price sensitivity. The interpretation of this association is subject to the same cautions that apply to all association results. A sample of 246 O&G firms was initially compiled from the 1996 Composted list of companies. Many firms were removed from samples due to their incomplete efficiency in data record or their financial record. The sensitivity analysis disclosures are associated with oil and gas price sensitivities. Thus, both formats suggested by the SEC provide information associated with firms' exposures to commodity price risk.
Smith and Michael, (1986).The result shows the firm-specific effects of regulation with stock market data with an application to oil price regulation. Regulations are often introduced and reformed in response to unanticipated changes in market forces. In late 1973, OPEC quadrupled the world price of oil and U.S. policy makers responded by imposing oil price regulation. How does one decompose measured abnormal returns into a portion related to a higher world price of crude oil and a portion related to the introduction of U.S. oil price regulation? effects should depend on the relative importance of five firm characteristics: foreign and U.S. oil production, foreign and U.S. refining, and access to price-controlled crude oil supports the presumption that significant, unanticipated stock price movements had occurred during the fourth quarter of 1973. Table 1 summarizes the portfolio findings for the fourth quarter of 1973 the use of the firm-specific model of abnormal returns. The cause of this is the increase in oil prices world wide. The impact of increasing in the oil prices on the return earned by refinery capital predicted that U.S. and foreign refinery operations would suffer the same proportionate loss, with their differential access to price-controlled crude oil held constant. Ciner, (2001) Energy Shocks and Financial Markets is the area of research in this article, the author examine how the energy and crude oil shocks are affecting the stock market. The author find out that there is no linear linkage between these two variables(s and P and oil prices). Most of the researcher claim that the recession in US after world war two was due to the oil shocks. The data is used the daily closing prices of new York stock exchange and S & p 500 index. The data used April 11, 1983, both through March 16, 1990. Researcher find out that there is no relationship between oil price shocks and the movements of the S&P 500 index, which is against the conclusions of prior research that suggest a significant relationship between oil prices and the economy. RJOUB and Samer, (2005) The research paper disclose the prices of oil on the stock index of U.S from the late eighties to 2005.The researcher suggest that there is negative relation in oil price shock and stock market return, that also impact on the index. Study data covers the period from 1985 to 2004. The result shows that the fluctuation in oil prices has an immediate worse effect on the stock market. Mixed dynamic model shows immediate negative impact of oil price shock on the stock market. Granger test of causality reject the null and accept that both oil shock and stock market return.
Nkomo, (2006) the paper finds out the impact of crude oil prices on the African capital economy. The data is taken from the OPEC member’s countries Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and U A E. The data is taken from 2000 to 2009. South Africa is exposed to increased prices and has imported inflation as well. Upward increases in international crude oil prices partly account for escalation in domestic inflation of African economy. As in any market system, prices balance supply and demand by allocating the scarce resource among competing end users.
CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS
3.1 Method of data collection
Normally data is taken from the specific method and techniques through the questionnaires or through observation. But in this case we take the data from other sources which is already been used and also bias less. Data is used as the secondary data, which is collected electronically from the website of SECP and other websites. The weekly closing of Karachi stock exchange (KSE-100) and weekly closing of OGDC, PPL, POL, and PSO is taken from the official web site of Karachi stock exchange.
3.2 Sampling technique
Sample is taken as the weekly basis to test the correlation between crude oil prices and Karachi stock exchange (KSE-100 index). We use the weekly data instead of daily. The result of daily data was very difficult due to the high number of observation, so we take the weekly closing data to cover the maximum year’s records. We mean by the crude oil price (the shares price of those companies which deals in crude oil), OGDCL , PSO, PPL and POL. The average of these all scripts is taken on weekly basis. The data of crude oil prices and the Karachi stock exchange (KSE-100 index) is taken (July, 2007-july, 2010), which is the closing of every weeks. The data having very high number of observations which is helpful to use SLR model of SPSS.
3.3 Sample size
Sample is the 161 number of observation, which is taken on weekly basis and the data of three years. This is healthy number of observations in any data to take the result on simple linear regression model (SLR)
The data used is research is reliable and bias less, because it is taken directly from the consult authorities. Which assure the accuracy of data. The data firstly was taken of three years on the daily basis but later we summaries it to see the significant and clear impact crude oil prices on Karachi stock index. Then we take the weekly closing data of both the variables.
3.4 Research model developed
The weekly data is taken to develop the model. The measurement effect of oil prices volatility on KSE-100 index is taken by this model. The model is used to find the correlation between variables. The Karachi stock exchange (kse-100 index) is used the independent and the petroleum sector (the shares price of those companies which deals in crude oil (OGDCL, PSO, PPL and POL). is used as the dependent variables. The result shows that the variables are highly correlated.
I = 264.031+ (45.983) CP
I stand for Index Number
CP represents Crude Oil Price
In the above model the value of constant 264.031, which shows that, when the price of crude oil companies is zero the index will be sustained at 264.031. We can also rephrase the statement that if there is no company involve in crude oil dealing the index number would be 264.031. In the above model the slope is positive 45.983. The positive sign shows that both variables have direct relationship. While 45.983 shows that when the price of crude oil Is increase by one rupees the index is gone up by 45.983.
3.5 Statistical technique
The simple linear regression is used to conclude the result by interpretation of data, because only two variables are used to observation. One crude oil prices and other Karachi stock index. So the simple linear regression is very easy to interpretation of result and to asses the result of given data. Regression developed the graphical presentation of two variables which are taken in research as data, the simple linear regression shows one variable on X axis and the other one variable on Y axis. The correlation of both variables can easily justify on the basis of slope line which is presenting the relation of two variables. The equation in model shows the slope line, which is positive and shows the relationship of variables attitude. We see when one variable (crude oil price) is increased the other variable (kse-100) is also upward.
CHAPTER 4: RESULT
4.1 Findings and interpretation of the result
Table 1: Correlations
crude oil price
crude oil price
crude oil price
The table shows that there is 96% correlation in tested variables, which is highly correlated. The significance level which should be less than .05 for acceptance of the model, in our research the significance level is .000 which is purely showing the acceptance of model.
Table 2: Model Summary b
Adjusted R square
St. error of the estimate
The R square and adjusted R square which is more than 0.93 shows the dependency of
Variables, it means there is 93 percent dependency in tested variables. This also shows the highly
Correlation in crude oil price and kse-100 index. The R square Shows the accuracy of variables
and reliability of data variables.
Table 3: ANOVA b
Sum of Squares
The significance level in ANOVAs table is .000, which shows the highly acceptance of the model which should be less than .05 for acceptance of the model, so we can use this model to interpretation of the 100 Index number on the basis of Crude Oil price.
Table 4: Coefficients a
Un standardized Coefficients
Co linearity Statistics
crude oil price
VIF should be 2 or less than 2, here in our result VIF is 1 which is acceptable model. In the above model the value of constant 264.031, which shows that, when the price of crude oil companies is zero the index will be sustained at 264.031. We can also rephrase the statement that if there is no company involve in crude oil dealing the index number would be 264.031. In the above model the slope is positive 45.983. The positive sign shows that both variables have direct relationship. While 45.983 shows that when the price of crude oil Is increase by one rupees the index is gone up by 45.983.
The data we used as dependent (kse-100) is taken on Y axis and (crude oil price) as independent variable on X axis. The graph present the co linearity among predicted and predictor variables. The slope line shows that when the price of crude oil changes the stock index also change with respect the price, which highly correlation of variables. In the model the slope is positive 45.983, the positive sign shows that both variables have direct relationship The change is positive if the change in crude oil price is positive and visa Vis.
4.2 Hypothesis assessment summary
Both the hypotheses are accepted in our research, the slope of graph and significant value .000 shows that there is high correlation in variables. It accepts the research hypothesis (the increase in crude oil price causes as increase in kse-100 index and decrease vice versa).
CHAPTER # 5: DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSIONS,
IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
The model is fully accepted and both the hypothesis are also accepted. The slope of scatter plot and significance level (.000) and R square and Adjusted R square (.93) are showing the highly correlation in crude oil price and kse-100 index. The change in kse-100 is showing obvious due to the change in crude oil price.
5.2 Implications and recommendations
The market behavior of index is very sensitive issue, which avoid the most of the investor to invest in the market. The unbalanced way of gambling causes the losses of short investors. Gambling should stop to encourage the investors.
5.3 Future research
The next step of this research is to find out the causes of increases in crude oil prices. The prices of crude oil we have seen in our research how impact on the consumer goods and how it helps in inflations. The causes of economic break down is also depends on the inflation and on the purchasing power of general consumers. To find out the reason of inflation in world wide most common problem, it can find out the causes of increases in prices of crude oil. Either the supply of oil is short or the sudden demand pulls the prices higher of it. We know the prices of crude oil in previous years are fluctuating very much higher, the boom in per barrel prices causes the inflation of national and international commodities. What are the aspects behind this theory of crude oil and its storage system?
At the end the findings prove that, the change in crude oil prices change the Karachi stock index. It has also impact on the prices of consumer goods and market goods. The change in consumer goods prices or the causes of inflations are due to the increase in fuel cost or in the cost of production, which is impact directly to the prices of goods. The kse-100 index also impact on the prices of commodities although there is no relation in between the consumer items, but the investor’s perceptions and the financial aspect of kse-100 index exist. The approach of this paper is to find out the relation of crude oil prices to the prices of other commodities. The change in consumer goods exists due to the change in crude oil prices. Some time the stock index does not increase with respect to the prices of crude oil, we see this negative relation because of the other uncontrollable factors. If we take the all other uncontrollable factors as constant and find out the result, the correlation in variables is very high. The papers help out the investor’s perceptions about market and index. The investors can adjust their investment plans by the volatility spillover of Karachi stock index and by the prices of crude oil. Any way they are investing in the petroleum sectors or in any other sector of Karachi stock listed company.
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Borenstein and Richard, (1997) “Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 112, No. 1
Cetin Ciner, (2001) “Energy Shocks and Financial Markets” Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Volume 5, Issue 3
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Nkomo, (2006) “Crude oil price movements and their impact on South Africa” Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, Val 17 No 4
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