Executive Summary

Technical research is a method of evaluating securities, commodities and stock by analyzing the chart generated by market activity. Chart is a graphical representation of price movement.

There are four main type of chart used by the trader: line char, bar chart, candle stick chart and point and figure chart.

Technicians believe that all the information which is needed available on the chart. Technical analyst takes a short-term approach to analyzing the commodity trend. It is based on historical chart pattern and one can predict the movement of the commodity.

One of the most important concepts in technical analysis is analyzing the trend, which the general direction that a commodity is headed is. There are three types of trends: up trend, down trends and horizontal trends. The trend line is a simple charting technique which adds a line for representation of the trend. Channel lines are parallel trend line which act as strong support and resistance level.

After trend support and resistance plays vital role for analyzing the future price movement. Support is the price level through which commodity seldom falls and Resistance is the price level that a commodity seldom surpasses.

Volume is the number of contracts or quantity that trade over a given period of time. It is usually calculated in a day.

The time scale refers to the range of dates at the bottom of the chart, which can vary from time period. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. Right hand side of the chart represent price of the commodity.

To simply understand the movement we have so many chart pattern which signals about the future movement of the commodity. They are as follows:

  1. Head and shoulder pattern.
  2. A cup and handle pattern.
  3. Double top and double bottom.
  4. Triangle.
  5. Flag and pennant
  6. Wedge

These all are the chart pattern which help and get idea from the pattern.

After this level one of the major topic we have to cover i.e chart indicator:

  1. Moving average (simple, exponential and weighted)
  2. Moving average convergence divergence (MACD)
  3. Relative strength index

About Company

Before giving detail about the project, few words about FORTUNE FINANCIAL.FORTUNE FINANCIAL is one of the successful hybrid player in the business that are present both in Corporate Finance as well as Entire Broking spectrum. It was started in the year1992 and at present the net worth of the company is 950 million.

Fortune Group comprises the holding company:

Fortune Financial Services (India) Limited and it's wholly owned subsidiaries viz.

§ Fortune Equity Brokers (India) Limited

§ Fortune Commodities and Derivatives (India) Limited

§ Fortune Credit Capital Limited

§ Fortune Financial India Insurance Brokers Limited

Research Team is one of the main features of Fortune Financial. They use latest analytical tools and user international news service like Bloomberg and C-line to keep customer abreast with the latest national and global trend. Further the team comprises of experienced fundamental and technical analysts who are constantly looking for trading/ investment opportunity and for completion of my project I am also one of the part of the team.

Commodity market: Introduction

What is a Market?

Market is defined as a place where buyer and seller come together for exchange of goods and services for a consideration. This consideration is usually in terms of money. In the currant era internet plays a very important role in buying and selling of goods and services. In this technology enable environment, buyer and seller can exchange goods from different locations by using electronic market place. Hence it is clear that physical marketplace is not necessary for exchanging goods and services for a consideration. Electronic trading and settlement has created revolution in global commodity market.

What Is a Commodity?

Commodity is a product that has commercial value, which can be produced, sold, bought & consumed. Commodities are basically the product of primary sector. Primary sector of economy is consider as agric cultural and raw material such as Bullions, Base metals and Energy (Crude oil, Natural gas) which serve basic inputs for secondary goods.

To qualify as a commodity for trading, a product has to meet basic characteristics:

  1. The product must not gone through any manufacturing activities expect for certain basic processing such as cropping and mining etc. In other words, product must be in a raw, basic, unprocessed state. For example: Sugar is process by sugarcane.
  2. The product has to be standardized; it means that there can not be much difference in a product based on its quantity. For Example: There is different verity of crude oil and they can be treated as different commodities and traded under different contract.
  3. Fundamental forces of market demand and supply for commodity determine the commodity prices. The major consideration while buying the product is its price.
  4. Usually many seller and buyer of the product will be in the market. There presence is required to ensure widespread trade activities in the commodity market.
  5. The product must have adequate shelf life. The delivery of the product usually later date.

Indian Commodity Market

A market where commodities are traded is known as commodity market. Theses commodities include Base metals (Copper, Nickel, Lead, Zinc and Aluminum); Bullion (Gold, Silver); Energy (Natural Gas, Crude oil) and agricultural commodities such as cotton, Soya oil, palm oil, coffee and pepper, Almond.

Transparent and active commodity market is considered as a sign of development of an economy. It is therefore important to have active commodity market functioning of the country.

Markets have existed for centuries worldwide for selling and buying of goods. The concept of market started with agricultural market and it is old as the agricultural products. Traditionally, farmer used to bring their products the central place in a town or village where merchants would also come and buy the products and transport, sell and distribute them to other market.

In the traditional market, agric product would be kept in the market and potential buyers would come and negotiate with farmers directly on the price that they would be willing to pay.

In traditional market shortage of commodity resulted in to increase of the price of the commodity and the other hand oversupply of commodity could result in decline in price. Neither farmer nor merchants are happy with the situation as prices are not steady and unpredicted. It result that farmers often return from the market.

The history of trading in commodities in India goes back several centuries. But organize future market in India Emerged in 1875 when Bombay Cotton Trade Association was established and grows in every sector like trading in oil seeds in Gujarat (Today It is known as National Commodity Exchange, Ahmadabad); future trading in gold started in Mumbai in 1920 and so on….

There is some rejection from political parties for these types of market because of prices of commodity increasing rapidly which resulted in speculation in the market.

To prevent market by these types of activity and to standardize the market structure government establishes so many committees such as:

  1. Shroff Committee in 1950.
  2. Dantwala Committee in 1966.
  3. Khusro Committee in 1979.
  4. Kabra Committee in 1993.
  5. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development 1996.

Kabra committee and World Bank - UNCTAD study the final assessed the scope for forward and future contracts in commodity markets in India and recommended steps to revitalize future trading.

There are four national level; commodity exchanges in India. The national level exchanges are:

  1. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX)
  2. national commodity and Derivatives Exchange India Ltd (NCDEX)
  3. National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited(NMCE)
  4. Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX)

Importance of Commodity Market in India

Majority of commodities traded on global commodity exchanges are agric-based. Commodity therefore greater importance and hold a great potential in case of economy like India, where near about 70 percent of the people are dependent on agriculture sector.

There is huge domestic market for commodities in India since India consume more portion of agric product locally. Indian commodities market has an excellent growth potential & has created good opportunity to the players of commodity market. India is the worlds leading producers of 15 commodities and worlds largest consumer of edible oils, Gold and Silver.

Many nationalized and private sector banks have announced plans to disburse substantial amounts to finance business related to commodity trading. They take stapes like lifting the ban on future trading in the commodity, approving new exchanges, developing exchange center with modern equipments and add systems like online trading are develop. This has boosted both the spot market and the future market in India. This helps to increase trading volume and increase the interest of the market participants in Indian commodity market. If the commodity participants like international trader create foreign exchange and growth in commodity futures. It is expected that foreign institutional investor, mutual funds and bankers may be participates in commodity derivatives in near future.

Commodity trading is going to be rapidly growing business in coming year. In the liberalization of 19991, the prices have been subject to price volatilities in international markets, since India is the one of the largely a net importer of such commodities.

Indian Economic System

By constituting the commodity exchange Indian economy get benefited. Growth in organized commodity market and their constituents implies that there would be tremendous advantages and benefit accrued to the Indian economy in terms of business generation and growth in employment opportunities. As India imports bulk of raw material, there is scope for minimizing price risk for international commodities. With the consumption of commodities increasingly rapidly, especially in developing countries like India and Chiana, the price of commodities are volatile, emphasizing the need for organized commodity exchange.

Technical Analysis : Introduction

The methods used to analyze securities and make investment decisions fall into two broad categories: Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis. Fundamental analysis involves analyzing the characteristics of a commodity in order to forecast value. Technical analysis takes a completely different approach; it doesn't care one bit “Value” of the commodity. Technicians are only interested in price movements in the market.

Despite all the fancy and exotic tools it employ's, technical analysis really just studies demand and supply in a market in an attempt to determine what trend, direction, will continue in the future. In other words, technical analysis attempts to understand the emotions in the market by studying the market itself, as opposed to components. If you understand merits and demerits of analysis, it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to technical analysis; it can give you a new set of tools or skills that will enable you to be a better investor or trader.

Technical Research

Technical analysis is a method of evaluating securities by analyzing the statistic created by the market activity, such as past price and volume. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a securities intrinsic value, but instead use charts and other tools to identify patterns that can suggest future view and activity. There are so many difference type of technical pattern some rely on chart pattern and some on chart indicators. In any case, technical analyst use of historical price and volume data which will separate fundamental analysts, technical analyst don't care whether a stock is undervalued - the only things that matters is a security's past trading data and what information this data can provide about whether the security might move in future or not.

There are three base assumptions for Technical analysis:

  1. History tends to repeat itself.
  2. Price moves in trends.
  3. The Market Discounts Every thing.

1. History tends to repeat itself :

Technical analysis is the history tends to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movement is attributed to market psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide a consistent reaction to similar market repeat over a time. Technical analysis uses chart pattern to analyze which is useful to understand market pattern and market trends. Although many of that charts have been used for more than 100 years, they are still believed to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in price movements that often repeat themselves.

2. Price movement in trend:

In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow the trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the future price movement is more likely to the same movement as the trend than to be against it. Most trading strategies are base on this assumption only.

3. The market discounts every thing:

The major criticism of technical analysis is that it only considers the price movement, expecting the fundamental factors of the commodity. However, technical analysis assumes that, at any time, a stocks price reflects everything

that has or could affect the commodity fundamentals along with broader economic factors and market psychology, are all priced into the stock, removing the need to actually consider these factors separately. This only leaves the analysis of price movement, which technical analysis viewed as a product of demand and supply for particular commodity in the market.

Not Just For Commodities

Technical analysis can be use on any securities with historical trading data. This includes commodities, stocks and futures, fixed income securities. The project studies analysis with examples which I learn while doing internship in Fortune Financial. Technical analysis is more frequently associated with commodities and forex, where the major shares of participants are traders.

Technical Charts

Properties of Chart Analysis

There were several things that we will be aware of when we looking at charts, as these factors can affect the information that is provided. The chart properties include the price scale, the price point properties and time scale used.

The Price Scale and Price Properties:

The price scale is on the right-hand side of the chart. It shows the current price as well as compares the past data with the current one. This may seems like simple concepts in that the price scale goes from lower point (Prices) to the higher one the prices which move along the scale from bottom to top. A scale ca either be constructed in a linear or logarithmic way, it is available on most of the chat software's.

If a price scale is constructed by using linear scale, the space between each price point (10, 20, 30, and 40) is separated by an equal amount. A price moves from 20 to 30 on a linear scale.

The Time Scale:

The time scale refers to the dates at the bottom of the chart, which can vary from decades to seconds. The most frequently used time scales are intraday, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly and annually. The shorter the time scale more information on the chart available for that particular period. Each data point can represent closing price of the period or show the open, low-high and close depending on the chart.

To Understand Time scales see the chart:

Intraday charts plot price movement within the period of only one day. This means the time scale could be as short as five minutes or could cover the whole trading day from opening price to the closing.

Daily Charts are collection of the series of price movements in which each price point on the chart is full days trading index in into one point. Again, each point on the graph can be simply the closing and opening price and high, low for the day. These data points are spread out over weekly, monthly and even yearly time scales to monitor both short-term and intermediates in price movement.

Types of Chart

1) Line Chart:

The most basic and simple four charts is line chart because it represents only the closing prices over a set of a period of time. The line is formed by connecting closing prices over the time scales. Line charts do not provide visual information of the trading range for the individual points such as the low, high and opening prices. However, the closing price is often considered to be the most important price in stock data compared to the high and low for the day and this is the only value which is use in the chart.

2) Bar Chart:

The bar chart expands on the line chart by several more key pieces of information to each data point. The chart is made up by vertical lines which represent each data point. This vertical line represent high and low for the trading period, along with the closing price. The close and open represented by vertical line by a horizontal dash which is on the left side. Inversely, the closing is representing by the right side dash.

Generally, if the left dash i.e. open is lower than the right that is close than the bar will be shaded blue and represent gained value. A bar that is colored red is exactly opposite to this one and it colored red.

3) Candle Sticks Chart:

It is similar to the bar chart, but it represent differently in other words it is constructed differently. Similarly to the bar chart, the candle stick represents a vertical thin line which represents time. The difference comes in the formation of a wide bar on the vertical line, which illustrates difference between open and closing price. And like bar chart it also relies heavily on the use of colors to explain what has happened during the trading period. There are two colors constructed for day up and one for days that falls.

When the price of the stock is up and closes above the opening trade, the candle stick will usually be white and clear. If the stock has traded down for one period, then the candle stick will usually be Red, depending on the site. If the stock price closes above the previous days close but below the days open, the candlesticks will be filled with Green color.

4) Point and Figure Chart:

The point and figure chart is not familiar and not used by the average investor but it has a long history of use dating back to the first technical traders. This type of chart reflects price movement and is not as concerned about time and volume in the formulation of the point. The point and figure chart removes insignificant price movement in stock which can distort trader's views of the price trends. This type of chart also tries to neutralize the fake effect that time has on chart analysis.

When we first look to the chart it will notice a series o Xs and Os. The Xs Represent upward price movement and Os represent downward price movement. There are also numbers and letters in the chart which represents months and give gives investor an idea of the data. Each box on each box on the chart represents the price scale, which adjusts depending on the price of the stock: higher the stock price the more each box represent.

Basic Concepts

Technical analysis is the base and an important part of the financial market. As I have mentioned in the introduction, technical analysis looks at the price movement of the commodity and uses this data to predict its future movements. Lets get in to the details of how technical analysis can be used together to analyze commodities.

In this part I divided steps which will help us to understand primary to secondary and higher class learning's of Technical Analysis:

Primary Learning's

Step-1

Trend Line:

One of the most important concepts in Technical Analysis is the trend of commodity. The meaning in finance is not all that different from the general definition of the terms - “A trend is nothing but the general direction in which a commodity or market is headed. For the clear understanding we will look the chart below:

In the above chart it is not hard to see that the trend in figure is up. However it's not always this easy to see the trend of the commodity.

In the above chart there are lots of up trend and down trend but there is not a clear indication of which direction this commodity is headed.

Unfortunately, trends are not always easy to see. In any given chart we will probably notice that prices do not tend to move in a straight line in any direction but rather in a series of high and lows. In this Technical Analysis, it is the movement of highs and low which constitute a trend.

For Example: An uptrend is classified as a series of higher high and higher low, while a down trend is one of lower lows and lower highs.

Types of Trend:

There are three types of trend:

Ø Uptrend

Ø Downtrends

Ø Sideways/Horizontal Trends

As the names indicates, when each successive peak and through is higher it refer to as an upward trend. If peaks and through go downs then it is a down trend. When there is little movement in up and

down in the peak and though, it is a horizontal trend. Horizontal or sideways trend is actually not a trend its own, but a lack of a well defined trend in either direction. In any case market can really only three ways: Up, down, no where.

Trend Length:

Along with these three trend directions, there are three trends are classify.

  1. Long-term Trend
  2. Intermediate Trend
  3. Short-term Trend

In terms of commodity market, the longer trend is generally categorized as one lasting longer than a year.

In Intermediate Trend is considered to last between one and three months.

In short-term period the Trend of commodity is less than a month.

In the above figure we can see all the three trends which are the part of long run. If the major trend is upward and there is a downward correction in price movement followed by a continuation of the uptrend, the correction is considered to be an intermediate trend. The short-term trends are components of both major and intermediate trends.

By using daily, weekly and annually chart we can understand the trend of the particular commodity. Daily charts are best to analyze both intermediate and short term trend. It is more important to remember that the long trend.

Trend Lines:

A trend line is the simple charting technique which adds a line to the chart to represent the trend in the market. Drawing a trend line is as simply drawing a strait line that follow the simple trend. These lines are clearly shows the trend of the commodity which is useful to the identification of the trend.

For understanding we simply go through the chart as below:

As we are seeing in the Figure-4, an upward trend lines is drawn at the lows of an upward trend. This line represents the support the stock has every time it moves from a high to a low. Notice how the price is proposed up by this support. This type of trend line helps traders to anticipate the point at which a stocks price will

begin moving upward again. Similarly, a down trend line is drawn at the highs of the down trend. This line represents the resistance level that a stock every time the price moves from a low to high.

Trade Channels:

A channel or a channel lines, is the addition of the two trend line which act as a major support and resistance. The upper line connects to the all high points and lower connects to the series of lows. Traders will expect that given commodity trade between these trade lines only if it is breaks the trend line the direction also change the channel or shift. Along with clearly displaying the trend, channels are mainly used to illustrate important areas of support and resistance.

In this above figure illustrates a ascending channel on a stock chart; the upper trend line has been placed on the highs and the lower trend line is on the lows. The price has bounced off of these lines several times, and has remained range-bound for several months. As long as the price does not fall below the lower line or move beyond the upper resistance, the range-bound downtrend is expected to continue.

The Importance of the Trend Line

It is important to understand and identify trends so that we can trade with rather than against them. Two important aspects of Technical Analysis are “The Trend is your friend” and “Don't buck the trend”. From this line we can illustrate how important trend analysis is for Technical analysis.

Step-2

Support and Resistance:

This is revealed by the prices a security seldom moves below support and above Resistance.

As we can see in the above figure support is the price level through which market seldom falls which is illustrate by blue arrows. Resistance, on the other hand, is the price level that a stock or market seldom surpasses which is illustrating by the red arrows.

Why does it happen?

Both the concepts of supports and resistance levels are seen as important in terms of market psychology and support as a demand. Support and resistance are the levels at which a lot of traders are willing to buy the commodity in case of a support and sell it in case of Resistance. When these trend lines are broken, the supply and demand the psychology behind the stocks movement is shifted and in this case it will create new support and resistance.

Round Numbers and Support and Resistance

One type of universal support and resistance that trend to be seen across a large number of securities is round numbers. Round numbers like 10, 20, 30, 50, 100 and 1000 tend to be important in support and resistance levels because they often represent the major psychological turning point at which many traders will make buy or sell decisions.

Buyer will often purchase large number of commodity once the price start to fall towards the major round number. It increases the buying and selling pressure at these levels that makes them important points of support and resistance.

Role Reversal

Once resistance and support level breaks, its role revised. If the price falls below a support level, that level will become resistance. If the prices rise above the resistance level it will become support.

Many times the trader who is using technical analysis find this concept hard to believe and don't realize this phenomenon occurs rather frequently even some of the most favorite commodities.

Importance of Support and Resistance:

Support and resistance analysis is an important part of the technical analysis because it can be used to make trading decisions and identify when trend is revise.

For Example: If a trader identifies an important level of resistance that has been tested several times but never broken, at this time he may be decide to take profit as the commodity moves towards this point because it is unlike that it will move past this level.

Support and Resistance both test and confirm trends and need to be monitored by any one who uses Technical Charts. As long as the price of the commodity remains between these levels of support and resistance, the trend is likely to continue. It is important to note, that a break beyond a level of support or resistance does not always have to be a reversal.

Being aware of these important support & resistance points should affect the way that we the trade stock. Traders should avoid placing order at these major points, as the area around them is usually marked by a lot of volatility. For the trade near a support or resistance level, it is important that you follow this simple rule: do not place order directly at the support or resistance level. This is because in many case, the price never actually reaches the whole number. So if you are bullish on commodity that is moving towards an important support level, do not place trade at the support level instead of trading at support level trade above the support level but within few points only.

Step 3

Volume:

Volume is simply define as the number of commodity quantity or contracts that trade over a given period of time, usually a day. The higher the volume of the commodity more active the commodity. To determine the movement of volume up or down, chartist look at the volume bars that can usually be found at the bottom of any chart. Volume bars illustrate how many shares have traded per period & show trend in the same way that price do.

Importance of the Volume:

It is a very important aspect of the Technical analysis because it is used to confirm trends and chart patterns. Any price movement up words or down words with relatively high volume is seen as a stronger, more relevant move than a similar move with a weak volume. Therefore, if you are looking at a large price movement, we will also examine the volume to see whether it tells the same story.

Say, for example, that a stock jumps 5% in one trading day after being in a long downtrend. Is this a sign of a trend reversal? This is where volume helps traders. If volumeis high during the day relative to the average daily volume, it is a sign that the reversal is probably for real. On the other hand, if the volume isbelow average, there may not be enough conviction to support a true trend reversal.

Volume should move with the trend. If prices are moving in an upward trend, volume should increase (and vice versa). If the previous relationship between volume and price movements starts to deteriorate, it is usually a sign of weakness in the trend. For example, if the stock is in an uptrend but the up trading days are marked with lower volume, it is a sign that the trend is starting to lose its legs and may soon end.

Step 4

Open Interest:

Many technical analysis believe that knowledge of open interest ca prove useful towards the end of the major market movement. For some option traders, open interest indicates the intensity of trading in a commodity. If open interest increases suddenly, it is likely that new information about the underlying security has been reveled, which may indicates a near team rise in the underlying securities volatility. However neither an increase in volatility nor open interest necessarily indicates anything about the direction of future price movements. A leveling off of open interest following a sustained price advance is often an early warning of the end to an up trending or bull market.

Technical analysis view increasing open interest as an indication that new money is flowing into the market. From this assumption, one could conclude that the present trend will continue. Analogously, declining open interest implies that the market is liquidating and suggests that prevailing price trend coming to an end.

However according to the definition of open interest in this entry, a change in the OI a difference in the number of buyers and seller of a financial instrument. It has no directional component.

For Example

If X buys 2 futures contracts from Y (who is the seller), then open interest rises by 2. If another trader A buys 2 futures contract from B, then open interest increase by 4. Now if X unwinds the position to the counter party is either Y or B, then OI in the system reduce by the quantity. Then OI reduce by that quantity.

But if X unwinds his position, and the counter party is a new entrant, say C, then OI will remain unchanged.

Importance of Open Interest:

Open interest is a concept all option traders need to understand. Although it is always one of the data fields on most option quote displays - along with bid price, ask price, volume and implied volatility - many traders ignore open interest. But while it may be less important than the option's price, or even current volume, open interest provides useful information that should be considered when entering an option position.

First, let's look at exactly what open interest represents. Unlike stock trading, in which there is a fixed number of shares to be traded, option trading can involve the creation of a new option contract when a trade is placed. Open interest will tell you the total number of option contracts that are currently open - in other words, contracts that have been traded but not yet liquidated by either an offsetting trade or an exercise or assignment.

For example, say we look at Microsoft and open interest tells us that there have been 81,700 options opened for the March 27.5 call option. You may be wondering if that number refers to options bought or sold. The answer is that you have no way to know for sure how many transactions have taken place but you do know that there are 81,700 options contracts that remain open. Since there is 1 bought position and 1 sold position for each of these contracts, there are 81,700 positions that remain bought to 'open' and 81,700 positions that remain sold to 'open' for the March 27.5 call option. There is always the same number of positions on either side of the open transactions.

So, when an option is traded with one party opening and one party closing, the open interest remains unchanged. If both parties in the transaction are closing positions then the open interest decreases accordingly. If both parties are opening positions then the open interest goes up accordingly.

One way to use open interest is to look at it relative to the volume of contracts traded. When the volume exceeds the existing open interest on a given day, this suggests that trading in that option was exceptionally high that day. Open interest can help you determine whether there is unusually high or low volume for any particular option.

Open interest also gives you key information regarding the liquidity of an option. If there is no open interest for an option, there is no secondary market for that option. When options have large open interest, it means they have a large number of buyers and sellers, and an active secondary market will increase the odds of getting option orders filled at good prices. So, all other things being equal, the bigger the open interest, the easier it will be to trade that option at a reasonable spread between the bid and ask

Benefits of Monitoring Open Interest:

By monitoring the changes in the open interest figures at the end of each trading day, some conclusions about the day's activity can be drawn.

Increasing open interest means that new money is flowing into the marketplace. The result will be that the present trend (up, down or sideways) will continue.

Declining open interest means that the market is liquidating and implies that the prevailing price trend is coming to an end. Knowledge of open interest can prove useful toward the end of major market moves.

A leveling off of open interest following a sustained price advance is often an early warning of the end to an up trending or bull market.

Open Interest - A Confirming Indicator:

An increase in open interest along with an increase in price is said to confirm an upward trend. Similarly, an increase in open interest along with a decrease in price confirms a downward trend. An increase or decrease in prices while open interest remains flat or declining may indicate a possible trend reversal.

The relationship between the prevailing price trend and open interest can be summarized by the following table:

Price

Open Interest

Interpretation

Rising

Rising

Market is Strong

Rising

Falling

Market is Weakening

Falling

Rising

Market is Weak

Falling

Falling

Market is Strengthening

Chart Pattern

1) Head and Shoulders

This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. Head and shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that

the security is likely to move against the previous trend. As you a see in Figure, there are two versions of the head and shoulders chart pattern. Head and shoulders top (shown on the left) is a chart pattern that is formed at the high of an upward movement and signals that the upward trend is about to end. Head and shoulders bottom, also known asinverse head and shoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but is used to signal a reversal in a downtrend.

Both of these head and shoulders patterns are similar in that there are four main parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head and shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head and shoulders top image shown on the left side in Figure 1, the left shoulder is made up of a high followed by a low. In this pattern, the neckline is a level of support or resistance. Remember that an upward trend is a period of successive rising highs and rising lows. The head and shoulders chart pattern, therefore, illustrates a weakening in a trend by showing the deterioration in the successive movements of the highs and lows

2) Double Tops and Bottoms

This chart pattern is another well-known pattern that signals a trend reversal - it is considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used. These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend is about to reverse. The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice and is unable to break through. This pattern is often used to signal intermediate and long-term trend reversals.

In the case of the double top pattern in Figure 3, the price movement has twice tried to move above a certain price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at pushing the price higher, the trend reverses and the price heads lower. In the case of a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the support, the security enters a new trend and heads upward.

3) Triangles

Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical analysis. The three types of triangles, which vary in construct and implication, are the symmetrical triangle, ascending and descending triangle. These chart patterns are considered to last anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months

The symmetrical triangle in the above Figure is a pattern in which two trend lines converge toward each other. This pattern is neutral in that a breakout to the upside or downside is a confirmation of a trend in that direction. In an ascending triangle, the upper trend line is flat, while the bottom trend line is upward sloping. This is generally thought of as a bullish pattern in which chartists look for an upside breakout. In a descending triangle, the lower trend line is flat and the upper trend line is descending. This is generally seen as a bearish pattern where chartists look for a downside breakout.

5) Flag and Pennant

These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are formed when there is a sharp price movement followed by agenerally sideways price movement. This pattern is then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same direction as the move that started the trend. The patterns are generally thought to last from one to three weeks.

As you can see in Figure, there is little difference between a pennant and a flag. The main difference between these price movements can be seen in the middle section of the chart pattern. In a pennant, the middle section is characterized by converging trend lines, much like what is seen in a symmetrical triangle. The middle section on the flag pattern, on the other hand, shows a channel pattern, with no convergence between the trend lines. In both cases, the trend is expected to continue when the price moves above the upper trend line

Chart indicator

Major Uses of Moving Averages

Following are the points which indicate the major uses of moving Averages:

Moving averages are used to identify current trends and trend reversals as well as to set up support and resistance levels.

It also can be used to identify quickly a moving of security in an uptrend or a downtrend depending on the direction of the moving average.

(It is explained in the following diagram, when a moving average is going upward and the price is above it, the security is in an uptrend and a vise-a-versa.)

Another method for determining momentum is to look at the order of a pair of moving averages.

When a short-term average is above a long-term average then the trend is up. And on the other hand, when a long-term average above a shorter-term average shows a downward movement in the trend.

Moving average trend reversals are designed in two main ways:

  1. When the price moves through a moving average and
  2. When the price moves through moving average crossovers.

1. When the price moves through a moving average:

For example, when the price of a security was in an uptrend falls below a 50-period moving average, like in below diagram, it gives a sign that the uptrend may be reversing.

2. When the price moves through moving average crossovers.

For example, if the 15-day moving average crosses above the 50-day moving average, it gives a positive sign that the price will start to increase. It can be shows in the below diagram.

When the periods used in the calculation are comparatively short, for example 15 and 35, this could indicate a short-term trend reversal. Whereas on the other hand, when two averages with comparatively long time frames cross over (50 and 200, for example), this is used to suggest a long-term shift in trend.

Moving averages are used to identify support and resistance levels. It is not unusual to see a stock that has been falling stop its decline and reverse direction once it hits the support of a major moving average. A move through a major moving average is often used as a signal by technical traders that the trend is reversing. For example, if the price breaks through the 200-day moving average in a downward direction, it is a signal that the uptrend is reversing.

To analyze the trend in a security, Moving Averages are the most powerful tool. These provide useful support and resistance points and are very easy to use. The most common time frames that are used when creating moving averages are the 200-day, 100-day, 50-day, 20-day and 10-day. For example, The 200-day average is supposed to be a good measure of a trading year, a 100-day average of a half a year, a 50-day average of a quarter of a year, a 20-day average of a month and 10-day average of two weeks.

To smooth out some of the noise that is found in day-to-day price movements, giving traders a clearer view of the price trend, Moving Averages helps to the technical trader. So far we have been focused on price movement, through charts and averages. In the next section, we'll look at some other techniques used to confirm price movement and patterns.

Indicators are calculations and that is based on the price and the volume of a security that measure such things like money flow, trends, volatility and momentum. Indicators are also used as a secondary measure to the actual price movements and add

additional information to the analysis of securities. Indicators are used in two main ways: to confirm price movement and the quality of chart patterns, and to form buy and sell signals.

There are two main types of indicators:

  1. Leading
  2. Lagging

A leading indicator precedes price movements, giving them a predictive quality, whereas a lagging indicator is a confirmation tool because it follows price movement. A leading indicator is thought to be the strongest during periods of sideways or non-trending trading ranges, while the lagging indicators are still useful during trending periods. There are also two types of indicator constructions:

Those that fall in a bounded range and

Those that does not.

The ones that are bound within a range are called oscillators - these are the most common type of indicators. Oscillator indicators have a range, for example between zero and 100, and signal periods where the security is overbought (near 100) or oversold (near zero). Non-bounded indicators still form buy and sell signals along with displaying strength or weakness, but they vary in the way they do this.

There are two main ways in which the indicators are used to form buy and sell signals in technical analysis through crossovers and divergence.

1. Crossovers are the most popular and are reflected when either the price moves through the moving average, or when two different moving averages cross over each other.

And

2. Divergence, which happens when the direction of the price trend and the direction of the indicator trend are moving in the opposite direction. This signals to indicator users that the direction of the price trend is weakening.

Indicators that are used in technical analysis provide an extremely useful source of additional information. These indicators help to identify momentum, trends, volatility and various other aspects in a security to aid in the technical analysis of trends. Sometimes, some traders uses a single indicator solely for buy and sell signals, they are best used in conjunction with price movement, chart patterns and other indicators.

3) Moving Average Convergence:

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most well-known and used indicators in technical analysis. This includes two exponential moving averages which help to measure momentum in the security. The MACD gives the difference between these two moving averages plotted against a centerline. The centerline is the point at which the two moving averages are equal. MACD, centerline, an exponential moving average of the MACD these are plotted on the chart. The idea will give an indication to measure short-term momentum compared to longer term momentum to help signal the current direction of momentum. Following is a formula to calculate MACD.

MACD= shorter term moving average - longer term moving average

  • When the MACD is positive, it indicates that the shorter term moving average is above the longer term moving average and suggests upward momentum.
  • And when the MACD is negative - this indicates that the shorter term is below the longer and suggests downward momentum.
  • When the MACD line crosses over the centerline, it signals a crossing in the moving averages.

The most common moving average values used in the calculation are the 26-day and 12-day exponential moving averages. The signal line is commonly created by using a nine-day exponential moving average of the MACD values. These values can be adjusted to meet the needs of the technician and the security. For more volatile securities, shorter term averages are used while less volatile securities should have longer averages.

5) Relative Strength Index (RSI):

The RSI is also a one of the most used and well-known momentum indicators in technical analysis. It helps to signal overbought and oversold conditions in a security. This indicator help to the trader in identifying security's price like whether the whether the securities price has been unreasonably pushed to current levels or reversal or may be on the way. The indicator is plotted in a range between zero and 100. A reading above 70 is used to suggest that a security is overbought, whereas reading below 30 is used to suggest that it is oversold. The following diagram gives a description

The standard calculation for RSI uses 14 trading days as the basis; it can be adjusted to meet the needs of the user. If the trading period is adjusted to use fewer days, the RSI will be more volatile and will be used for shorter term trades

6) Stochastic Oscillator:

This is one of the most well-known momentum indicators used in technical analysis. The idea behind this indicator is that, in an uptrend, the price should be closing near the highs of the trading range, which shows an upward momentum in the security. In downtrends, it is exactly opposite to that, like the price should be closing near the lows of the trading range, signaling downward momentum.

This plotted within a range of zero and 100 and signals overbought conditions above 80 and oversold conditions below 20. The stochastic oscillator contains two lines.

The first line is the %K, and it is essentially the raw measure which is used to formulate the idea of momentum behind the oscillator.

The second line is a moving average of the %K which is %D. This line, the %D line is considered to be the more important between the two lines because it is seen to produce better signals.

The stochastic oscillator generally uses the past 14 trading periods in its calculation as well as it can be adjusted to meet the needs of the user.

Fundamental aspects

(All the data collected from forexfactory.com)

(Fundamental Aspects in April month: 2011)

1) Housing Stars and Building Permits:

Importance: This Release Merits a B-

Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce

Release Timing: Around 16th of the month (one month prior)

What is Housing Start and Building Permits?

Housing Starts are a measure of the number of residential units on which construction is begun each month. A start in a construction is defined as the beginning of excavation of the foundation for the building and is comprised primarily of residential housing. Building permits are permits taken out in order to allow excavation. An increase in building permits and stars usually occurs a few months after a reduction in mortgage rates. Permits lead starts, but permits are not required in all regions of the country, and the level of permits there fore tends to be less than the level of starts over a time.

The monthly national report is broken down by region: North-east, Mid-west, South, and west. The high volatility can be attributed to whether changes natural disaster. For Example: An unexpectedly high level of rain in south could delay housing starts for the region.

How it impact?

Increase Bullish for copper and base metals

Decline Bearish for copper and base Metals

Building permits are least important if there are Housing Starts.

Short Summary:

Measures

Annualized number of new residential building that began construction during the previous month

Effect

Actual > Forecast = Good for Currency

Frequency

Release monthly, about 17 days

Importance

This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before a house can begin construction. It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect.

Understanding by Example

Jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractor and inspector are hired, and various construction services purchased by the builder.

2)Existing Home Sales:

Importance: This release merits a C

Source: The National Association of Realtors.

Release Time: around 25th of the month (Prier for one month)

The name speaks for itself - this report provides a measure of the level of sales of existing home sales. The report is considered a decent indicator of activity in the housing sector. Housing starts precede this report each month, but starts are a supply rather than demand-side indicator. Existing home sales precede the other key demand side indicator of housing - new home sales - thus boosting the visibility of this report. Sales are highly dependent on mortgage rates, and will tend to react with a few months lag to changes in rates. Sale are also determined by the level of pent-up demand for housing- Immediately after recession, sales are typically quite strong due to the demand which accumulated through the recession.

The survey sample for existing home sale is larger than that of new home sales, making it some what less susceptible to large revisions. Both reports can see huge month to month swings in winter, when bad whether can significantly affect sales.

Aside from total sales, two other indicators are worth watching in this report -- the inventory of homes for sale and the median price. The inventory of homes for sale at the current sales pace is the inventory/sales ratio of the housing sector.

For example, a 5.0 figure for inventory/sales indicates that the supply of homes for sale would be depleted within five months at the current sales pace. The lower this figure goes, the greater the need for new housing starts. The year/year change in the median price provides a good indication of inflation in home prices.

How it impact?

If actual is greater than forecast then it is good for currencies.

Short Summary:

Measures

Annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, Excluding new construction.

Effect

Actual > Forecast = Good for currency

Frequency

Release near on 23rd day of the month

Importance

Existing homes make up the majority of total sales and therefore tend to have more impact than new home sales. It is a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect.

Understanding by Example

Renovation are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by financial bank, and a brokers are paid to execute the transaction

3) Initial Claims

Importance: This release merits a C+

Source: Employment and Training administration of the Department of Labor

Release: Every Thursday (Data for week ended prior Saturday)

Initial jobless claims measure the number of fillings for state jobless benefits. This report provides a timely, but often misleading, indicator of the direction of the economy, with increases (Decrease) in claim potential signaling slowing (accelerating) job growth. On a week-to-week basis, claims underlying trend. It typically takes a substantial move of at least 30k in claims to signal a meaningful change in job growth.

There are two other statistics in this report- the number of people receiving state benefits and the insured unemployment rate; neither is watched closely by the market. Some analysts track the number of people receiving state benefits from month as a guide for job growth, though this series has a poor track record in predicting the monthly employment report. The insured unemployment rate changes little on a weekly basis and is never a for the market.

Short Summary:

Measures

The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

Effect

Actual < Forecast = Good for currency

Frequency

Release weekly

Importance

The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there trends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the trading is at extremes; it is a lagging indicator the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor market condition.

4) Philadelphia Fed Index:

Importance: This release merits a B.

Source: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank

Release: Third Thursday of the month

There are many regional manufacturing surveys, and they tend to be ranked in the order of timeless and importance of the region. The Philadelphia Fed's survey is the first each month, actually coming out during the third week of the month for which it is reporting. Several small surveys are then released before the Chicago purchasing managers report on the last day of each month. A few, such as Atlanta and Richmond Fed surveys, are released after the NAPM are of little value. The purchasing manager's reports are measures like the national NAPM- 50% marks the breakeven line between an expanding and contracting manufacturing sector. For the Philadelphia and Atlanta Fed indexes, 0 is the breakeven mark.

These survey can be of some help in forecasting the national NAPM - particularly the Philadelphia and Chicago surveys which are more closely watched due to their timeless and the fact that these region represent a reasonable cross section national manufacturing activities.

Short Summary:

Measures

Level of a diffusion index based on a surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia

Effect

Actual > Forecast (Good for currencies)

Frequency

Release monthly around mid.

Importance

This survey can have a relatively mild impact because its released a few days after the tightly correlated Empire sate manufacturing Index. It is a leading indicator of economic health- business reacts quickly to market condition, and changes in their sentiments can be early signals of future economic activity such as spending, hiring and investment.

5) Leading Indicators

Importance: This release merits a C-.

Source: The Conference Board.

Release: Third Thursday of the month

The Leading Indicators report is, for the most part, a compendium of previously announced economic indicators: new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits, and stock prices. Therefore, the report is extremely predictable and of very little interest to the market. Though this series does have some predictive qualities, it is a common criticism that it has predicted "nine of the last six" recessions.

The Commerce Department previously published the leading indicators series. The collection and publishing of these data is now done by the non-profit Conference Board, which also produces the Consumer Confidence index.

Short Summary

Measures

Changes in the level of composition index based on 10 economic indicators.

Effect

Actual > Forecast = (Good for currencies)

Frequency

Release monthly, around 20 days after the month end

Importance

This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously.

Impact

It is a combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, new order, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

6) New Home Sales

Importance: This release merits a C+.

Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

Release: Around last business day of the month.

The report indicates the level of new privately owned one-family houses sold and for sale. New home sales usually have a lagged reaction to changing mortgage rates. They also tend to be stronger early in the business cycle when pent-up demand is strong, and they fade later in the cycle as the demand for housing is sated. In addition to home sales, the market monitors the number of homes for sale relative to the current sales pace. As this inventory measure falls (rises), housing starts tend to rise (fall). Finally, the median home price provides an indication of inflation in the housing sector, though only year/year changes provide any meaningful information. one month's reading very unreliable. The report rarely prompts a market reaction. The market prefers the existing home The home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions, making any pool four times as large and is released earlier in the month.

7) Conference Board Consumer Confidence

Importance: This release merits a B-.

Source: The Conference Board.

Release: On last Tuesday of the month.

The Conference Board conducts a monthly survey of 5000 households to ascertain the level of consumer confidence. The report can occasionally be helpful in predicting sudden shifts in consumption patterns, though most small changes in the index are just noise. Only index changes of at least five points should be considered significant. The index consists of two sub indexes - consumers' appraisal of current conditions and their expectations for the future. Expectations make up 60% of the total index, with current conditions accounting for the other 40%. The expectations index is typically seen as having better leading indicator qualities than the current conditions index.

8) Durable Goods Orders

Importance: This release merits a B-.

Source: The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce.

Release: Around the 26th of the month (Data prior for one month)

The durable orders release measures the dollar volume of orders, shipments, and unfilled orders of durable goods (defined as goods whose intended lifespan is three years or more). Orders are considered a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, and the market often moves on this report despite the volatility and large revisions that make it a less than perfect indicator. These problems can be minimized by looking at the breakdown of orders. The total number is often skewed by huge increases in aircraft and defense orders. An increase based solely on strength in one sector tends to be discounted, while the market is more impressed with broad based increases in orders.

Also notable in this report is the narrow category of no defense capital goods. These goods mirror the GDP category producers' durable equipment (PDE) -- the largest component of business investment. Shipments of no defense capital goods are a good proxy for PDE in the current quarter, while no defense capital goods orders provide an indication of PDE growth in the quarters ahead.

Short Summary

Measures

Changes in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturing for durable goods, excluding transportation items.

Effect

Actual > Forecast = (Good for currencies)

Frequency

Release monthly, monthly about 26 days

Importance

The core data is therefore though to be a better gauge of purchase order trend. It is a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the order.

9) GDP: Gross Domestic Product

Importance: This release merits a B.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S Department of Commerce.

Release: Third or Fourth week of the month (For the prior quarter), with subsequent revision released in the second and third months of the quarter.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output. The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. Inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength.

The broad components of GDP are: consumption, investment, net exports, government purchases, and inventories. Consumption is by far the largest component, totaling roughly 2/3rds of GDP.

In addition to the GDP figures, there are GDP deflators, which measure the change in prices in total GDP and for each component. Though the consumer price index is a more closely watched inflation indicator, the GDP deflator is another key inflation measure. Unlike CPI, it has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so that changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the deflator.

With both GDP and the deflator, the market tends to focus on the quarter/quarter change. Year/year changes are also cited frequently, though they do not provide the timeliest indications of economic activity or inflation. The bond market often reacts to GDP, though the price moves are typically small, as much of the GDP data is easily predicted using monthly economic releases such as personal consumption, durable goods shipments, construction spending, international trade, and inventories.

Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past five years of data.

Objective of the project

The Objective of the project is different for both the parts.

Ø The 1st part consisting theoretical understanding of commodity market and tools of Technical analysis.

Ø The 2nd part will provide a detail analysis of the commodity Bullion, Energy, Metals.

Methodology

(a)Understanding Technical tools of Commodity Market:

The data collected for this part is mainly from the internet, magazines and Technical analysis book. An “In- depth Interview” from the Key person of the Commodity Analyst related sites was conducted regarding the methodology involved in publishing the articles and press release.

(b)Implement Technical and fundamental tools in live commodity market:

For the research study this report will involve all the data and analysis which I completed in my practical knowledge and practical working of the company