Stock Market and Macroeconomic Variables in India
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Published: Thu, 01 Mar 2018
Chapter I: INTRODUCTION
Investment is dependent on human behavior. Keynes (1936) elaborates which sort of behavior humans adopt while investing particularly in capital market. Usually people get in use with their “animal feelings” and “flock mentality”. Economic and social and political environment also affects the opinion of people and they force them to think several times before investing. This is the reason one cannot forget the fact that the value of economic activities and information nourished to the market is vital. Here we are going to discuss the tendency of animal spirit in India. The propensity of animal spirit in India is very much high-flying. The major reason for this is that only 2% of the population of India participates in such activities. The medium to get knowledge of market and accuracy in information is not available easily. This forces people to act as per their nature rather than their logic. The core theme of this analysis is the study of interrelation between real economic variables and capital market variables. The significance of this relationship has got marvelous recognition in the past due to roller-coaster ride of the BSE. A few academics also claim that it is not greatly shored up by the financial basics.
To determine the character of these basics in studying the stock prices, different people have done different researches. Amidst of these thoughts, some fundamentalists have tailored theory of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This theory was further extended by Fama in 1971 to narrow and categorize such business centers on the foundation of their response and data nourished to them in feeble, partially built and well-built markets. Another theory which is Popular Model Theory shows a different perspective in general. This theory explains the qualitative clarification of price which shows that most of the people proceed inappropriately to the information which they get and easily accessible information is not included in stock market price as Efficient Market Hypothesis verifies which is also much analogous to Keynes model.
These days, everyone in the world is running after word money (finance). Nothing is possible without money and economy and other financial operations including growth of this whole world are also dependent on the same. Without finance, no one can turn the wheel of economy at 360 degree, because each and every transaction needs money at its core. Amadou (2007). In the past, there was a system in use, which is barter system. To avoid its complications, ‘money’- component of finance was introduced and as then, money has been the most precious thing of the world. It has become a need for every individual to fulfill the requirements. Money is the core object needed to establish a business. The most valuable source of this sort of money is the post laissez-faireization period is stock markets. In today’s world, each and every individual can witness the appearance and acceptance of the capital markets in the period of Globalization. This is considered to be highly regarded as an award for the globalization years to under developed regions to enlarge and reinforce their nitty-gritty as their financial crisis is gratified to an extent by these stock markets. Capital markets are also considered to be a profitable platform for firms to get financing for their new or forthcoming projects and moreover for people as a prospect to invest with chances of risk but huge profits. The establishment of such capital market is the most important aspect for companies and individuals. It is also a valuable state of the prerequisite of economy on the degree required in a contemporary varied economy. The subsistence of such markets persuades the existence of such arguments shaped in the hoisting of money can be transmitted.
“Thus if the ‘animal spirits’ are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters, leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die;-though fears of loss may have basis no more reasonable than hopes of profit had before. . . . . . . But individual initiative will be adequate only when reasonable calculation is supplemented and supported by animal spirits. . . . . . . .”
– Keynes (1936).
In the above quote, Keynes (1936) has very bluntly and accurately explained the reasons undercover of the current situation along with the entire humankind is getting exaggerated in our day in 1936 merely in one of his leading models. A few economists have also accepted in an extremely enjoyable method which it is not the object that the worth of our productivity has decreased or lowered but just only the animal feelings are fainted and what we were expecting is that the value of our capital market has boosted is wrong in comparison with the primordial epoch and regard as added rise in actual value improbable. And every financial system requires such “animal spirits” or the positive behavior along with the estimated threats and reserves to became visible and outshine and development.
Since her independence, India was following the socialistic outline for growth, but after the 1990’s financial crisis, India had to make some strict financial improvements as proposed by World Bank. The most vital factors of that package were financial liberalization. This financial change cemented a new way for India to boost its economy and make developments and gave India impulsive environment to the financial markets specifically in language of BSE BSE which is supposed to be solitary of the major components of India’s fiscal hike. These days, capital markets has considered to be the most valuable source to transform domestic savings to upcoming productive projects and provides a chance to the country to develop. Brigham & (2008)
According to a survey conducted in India, around two percent of the general populace is directly caught up in capital markets but when anything happens to such financial markets, it is the whole population which get affected, which clearly shows the correlation, impact and importance of these capital institutions and actual economy not only on the ground intensity but also bottomless within the main rank. In these days, newspapers are bombarded with such sort of news and major newspapers also issue supplement for financial news. Due to such releases, there is a little doubt that the macroeconomic news which is vital to capital market will be affected. In recent years, the whole financial market of the world had crashed and with the recession in capital market, a gap has been established which lead to decrease real economic fundamentals.
Consequently, it also boosts the value of this study because the focal point of this downturn is considered to be the capital markets and if we consider it the other way, a nation can become economically strong by considering such markets. So, it can easily be said by any person that it seems to be that the stock prices will go up and would result in the formation of some talented analysts of upcoming values of macroeconomic pointers similar to productivity growth and price increases. If one takes this thoughts then this would definitely result in arose of two more questions that what will make the market create hyper boom and incorporation of capital market with other marketplaces. Agrawal (2008)
The most suitable reply to be given to the earliest query is that the flow of information rise which has crowded the market, for instance, media (commerce news channels). Another rebellion that shocked the market is Information Technology. The shortage of skilled people in IT in the US has also become highly required after stocks due to their fantastic dough take home power.
The other question which is creating a fuss is regarding the connection of such capital markets with the actual financial system. Different analysts have also studied regarding this theory and worked on this linkage. Ando and Modigliani (1963) developed a theory called life cycle theory which is based on the linkage between stock prices and actual spending. The theory talks about the individuals’ decisions and states that people mark their expenditure verdicts on the conventional life span earning, division of which might be detained in capital connecting to capital cost variation to variation in using up expenditure. Beck & Levine (2001 & 2008)
In the same manner, the linkage between capital costs and investment spending is supported by q theory. The q theory is designed by James Tobin (1969) to analyze the effect of stock prices on investment spending, where q stand for fraction of total retail worth of comapnies to the substitute value of their on hand capital market at recent stock prices. In addition, we had also discussed EMH model. With this research we have concluded that none of these theories fit into the actual and recent image of stock markets. Some fit partially but no one is perfectly related. To analyze such issues, there should be more research to be done on this for better understanding and the below paragraph communicates it in an improved way.
“We should not conclude from this that everything depends on the waves of irrational psychology. On the contrary, the state of long-term expectation is often steady, and, even when it is not, the other factors exert their compensating effects. We are merely reminding ourselves that human decisions affecting the future, whether personal or political or economic, can’t depend on strict mathematical expectation, since the basis for making such calculation does not exist, and that it is not innate urge to activity which makes the wheels go round, our rational selves choosing between the alternatives as best we are able, calculating where we can, but often falling back for our motive on whim or sentiment or chance.” Keynes (1936).
Structure of the Dissertation
This study is stepped into five chapters and this is to be pointed that the register worth has been taken from all the factors. The first chapter thoroughly gives the overview of the current situation. The second chapter is based on the literatures related to our study. The third chapter comprises of a bunch of points and statistics and method considered in this analysis. The fourth chapter will explain the estimations and result analysis. Chapter five exemplifies the results, policy insinuations and boundaries of this analysis effort.
- What is the relationship between stock market and macroeconomic variables in India?
- Is there an informal relationship between capital market and real economy?
- What is the influence of investment on financial health of India?
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW
The word economics has emerged to be the most powerful word. Each and every individual is running after money and always try to earn as much as the one can within the shortest possible span. Without finance, no one can imagine running any sort of business and it has become an essential which runs the businesses and all the major features begin and finish at it. In recent world, the quickest and trouble-free way to earn money for new and challenging projects is to publicize or to enter into the stock markets where a little investment can make the wise firms accelerate and helps these firms to become giants amongst the other big names. Chauvet (2009) There are around two percent of the entire inhabitants in India which is caught up in stock markets but the whole population in India gets affected either directly or indirectly if anything good or bad occurs in such markets. This clearly shows that Capital Markets and Actual Economy both have strong and vital link on not just only the lesser stage but also on the higher stage. A number of studies and researches have been done in this regard but the outcomes are vague. The reason for this is that most of the researchers have found a tough bilateral linkage among capital markets and actual economy. On the other hand some researches have entirely rejected this analysis that stock markets and real economy are correlated.
To study more deeply we can distribute numerous theories in 3 schools of thoughts on the ground of the literature review: first school of thought says that there is no linkage between capital market and real financial factors. The second school of thought has analyzed that there is an informal link among stock market and macro economic variable. The last one which is third school of thought promulgates an unclear belief that there is a relation between the two but not positively in both short and long run. Pindyck (2004)
This research is comprised of some on hand literature which has been reviewed relating to the above problems. Below we have discussed the overall findings of different researchers.
First School of Thought
Chowhan, P.K. et al. (2000) The first school of thought attempted to obtain reasons for hurly-burly in capital market in small period in India considering BSE as the major indicator. In the period from 2008-2000, capital markets in India had shown irregular and unstable activities which does not go with the information provided to them. Due to the severe up and down in the stock prices, the investor confidence resulted in turmoil in the markets. The school of thought tried to explain that what could be the actual causes at the back of instability and what made Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) by Fama can’t explain the reason. The researchers attempted to find out the reason of such huge rise in BSE stock value. On October 2008, BSE was at 2761 and in February 2000 it went at 6000, which shows 117% appraisal in just 15 months, which is not powerfully maintained by basic financial factors in this era because Indian economy boosted just only 5.9% in 2009-2000. On the other hand, the corporate profit raised by 32%while the accumulated growth rate for industrial production during Apr-Dec 2009 was reported to be 6.2%. The rate of inflation in September 2008 was 8.8% while in 2009-2000 it has also jumped down to 2.9%. This research shows that long run financial factors such fluctuations in stock prices. India’s GDP in addition did not prove any hike in the past years. Not only India was affected with this situation but also other countries as well. The economists found some reasons to create a boost in Indian stock markets, they are:
- Information hike;
- IT impact;
- Internet fable;
- Feedback outcome;
- Cultural alteration.
Another economist Sarkar, P. (2007) states that if there exists any significant correlation between growth and capital accretion, they have to use yearly information on numerous financial factors like, insignificant and actual share price, capital market turnover, companies which are stock market members, fixed stock structure and enlargement of actual GDP and production results. Despite, all the researchers tell the same thing from 2000-1951 till 2005, there are no correlation actual and capital market variables neither in short nor in long run. In addition, Sarkar also researched new movements and came to a conclusion that most of the financial variables are unstable and comprised of an upswing movement in mid 1970s.
The tactics used in this thesis to get the best possible results is Unit Root tests. These tests are used to obtain a fixed and worthy degeneration analysis. Besides these studies, OLS and MLE approaches are also utilized for determining the sequence of auto-linkage of the remaining and handling with it. To estimate long-term and short-term relationships in a better manner, ECM and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADRL) respectively are used in this thesis.
Shiller, R. (1990), an economist of University of Yale, had researched and tried to compare the normal & meager compound Capital Price Index from 1871-2000. He concluded that the capital price instability is not compared by the profits.
Second School of Thought
In 2001, Black tried to elaborate the interlinkage between the U.S. capital costs and real economic variables. Black gathered 54 year periodical data and along with it used VAR model supported by hypothetical structure to study relationship between capital prices and macro financial variables. With the lime light on actual results and considering current value approach, Black found that the basic price-output ratio and the basic capital price in the light of various suppositions relating to time variation of income, and to contrast such values to the real data.
Black studies 3 situations, in the first one, he initiated supposing that the individuals expect fixed return as being the wealth holder and then support this supposition by first, permitting the undisruptive rate to differ in due course and next the risk payment to be time changeable. Although there is a variation in models results, most mean that the capital market has comparatively been overestimated in comparison with its value expected from growth rates. According to reports, the ratio of stock market capitalization with GDP has boosted to be thrice as compared to last twenty five years in the US. From this figure, in mid 1970s less than 30% and in 1990s it was 80%. The point which is to be noted here is that it does not only seem that the capital market has risen in 1990s but its link with the actual finances has turned out to be well-built and due to which it got accredited. As per the records, capital market has been associated with actual financial variables by numerous techniques, out of which one of them is asset costing perception in which Arbitrage Pricing Theory is second-hand as structure to analyze the impacts of actual economic measures on capital costs concentrating on the question that will the risk allied with a few real financial variables is replicated in probable asset takings. On the other hand, there also exists expenditure-CAPM study of expenditure which deliberates on a particular real factor power. There are other researches also conducted to analyze the relation between capital prices and investment when stock prices hide the actual economy which can be doled out with. In recent times, a lot of researches have aroused analyzing the mutual linkage between capital worth and actual financial factors with VAR models as the structure, devoid of any particular hypothetical formation.
Bulmash (2003) has done a very distinctive analysis to elaborate the interaction between company investments and stock markets. He also studied that how investments affect stock markets and vice versa. This theory also reflects how investments respond faster than customers in capital markets. In his previous researches, Bulmash showed that what makes one capital market to get boosted just by the difference in returns of economies. And finally results in unity of this income fetch the stock into association in the long term. It has also been proved that what makes these stock markets covert into analysts of the future financial flows. It has also showed the linkage between capital investment markets and actual financial variables through a system that value of capital market will boost when:
- Firms increase their investment to enlarge their operations which will increase the GDP.
- With the increase in capital, actual capital also amplifies because buyers also raise their expenses which accelerate GDP.
- Such points will result in worth formation which will lead to real economy.
Third School of Thought
A renowned economist, Mustafa in 2007 has done an analysis on the linkage between capital market and actual financial market in Pakistan. For his study, he took a number of economic variables like, per capita GDP, productivity growth and capital market liquidity, volume of capital market highlighting the financial Market. He took up co-amalgamation and Error Correction Model method to set up the pragmatic link, if any among the two from 1980-2004.
The probable outcomes points that the activities in the capital market of Pakistan elaborate the per capita GDP and productivity growth for small period only. On the other side, financial growth variables elaborates capital market factors in nearby as well as in long term which shows that the enlargement of capital market relies on by and large development of economy in Pakistan. The economy of Pakistan had not been affected by the acceleration in Karachi Stock Exchange which signifies that the elevated instability is not out of the ordinary of the up-and-coming stock markets. The previous theories related to this subject used stock prices as capital market movement sign and utilization, price rises, industrial output, financial flow, rate of interest as real financial factor. Mustafa’s theory is quite different from other’s work because the variables are different as used by others. The analyst have come to a conclusion on the basis of empirical results that in Pakistan the stock market is way behind and it needs to develop to be vital in the economy of Pakistan with the help of other financial institutions. In any nation’s economic growth, capital markets play an important role but capital market is inactive in the growth of a nation unless it is in its emergent stage.
Another big name amongst economists is Hussain, F (2010). He also studied about the linkage among stock price and actual economy of Pakistan. He gathered data from 1959 till 2004 or 2005. After getting data, he distributed it in 2 halves, which are pre and post liberalization and with the help of this activity he analyzed the linkage between stock price and actual economy by applying different econometric tactics like ECM, Engle-Granger co- integrating regressions and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit Root tests. The delay period was decided in all the cases on the foundation of the two, i.e., Final Prediction Error and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). By applying such techniques Hussain examined that there exists long term linkage between capital worth and actual financial factors.
On the subject of the causal section, he has brought into being unilateral grounds from actual market to stock costs. This highlights that the stock markets in Pakistan are yet in a developing stage. They have not got developed to influence the actual variables of economy and because of that they cannot be considered as most important sign of the monetary activity. It means that Government of Pakistan can utilize actual sector to power the capital market.
Another study observes that in India, the incorporation between Foreign Exchange and Stock market in liberalization period. The researchers tried their level best to find out the link flanked by Foreign Exchange and Stock market by using goods market approach and portfolio balance approach. To narrow the research, they have used a number of econometric techniques Granger’s causality test in VAR structure, which is supported by F-Test to test this theory; and to examine such chains for immobility, ADF Unit Root Test is useful. One more econometric test is applied which is Gweke’s Measures for the degree of business center amalgamation. But the point is that this study gave new outcomes which are totally different. The previous examinations reveal that there exists an informal linkage among income in foreign exchange and stock markets. While as per the final analysis, there is a high extent of assimilation among foreign exchange and capital markets and there is still two dimensional as well as simultaneous informal linkages between foreign exchange and stock markets. Figlewski (2001)
Out of one of the many various kinds of papers written by Brenner, M., et al. (2010) have studied the nearby prevision and reaction of U.S. stocks, treasury bonds, and commercial bond places to the initial public announcement of major macroeconomic bulletin on employment, inflation, and interest rates.
Four essential set of queries have been examined under this study. These are listed below:
- Whether these traded assets in the markets are more responsive to instability prior to release of these public announcements or less impulsive in nature afterwards?
- Are various asset class influenced in a different way by these public announcements?
- Is the prevailing degree of correlation between various assets being affected by these macroeconomic announcements?
- Do the influences of such public announcements occur solely due to their unanticipated mechanism or is the reaction happening in congruence to the predictable information?
In response to the above stated queries, they have under taken a number of day to day, incessantly compounded surplus waiting-phase profits on the three major asset categories, namely; stocks, reserves bonds, and shared bonds. Koutsoyiannis (2004)
What differentiates this research in contrast to the prior researches of its various types is the investigation of impact of major macroeconomic news on the cooperative allocation of returns in three different financial souks. Surveys and potential data have also been used to dig out the unforeseen mechanism of this information. Furthermore affect of these news bulletins on both the profits generated out of the three categories of assets, as well as their instability and connection is also a part of the analysis.
To understand the flexibility of univariate GARCH model instead of containing the intricacy of the multivariate GARCH model, Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model by Engle (2002) has been taken under study.
In view of this research they have come up to the conclusion that the information pertaining to the macroeconomic bulletins is considered to have a rather statistically momentous and economically considerable influence over the financial markets of US. Also this significant impact differs to a great extent across asset categories. Therefore it analyzes a multifaceted picture of interaction between the returns on asset in propinquity of public announcements or bulletins. In short a powerful correlation exists amid the actual economy and money markets of the U.S.
With the help of a bivariate GARCH framework, Sarkar, A., et al. (2009), have been able to analyze whether the possibility of positive provisional relationship exists among capital profits and spending or not, even though the existence of absolute correlation is not evident in the case of G7 countries. A monthly statistics of approximately forty years have been considered for the United States and for other countries, quarterly data has been taken into consideration. They have witnessed strong evidence with respect to the existence of positive and considerable uncertain link among advancement in spending increase and capital profits. The hypothesis could not be verified and have been disregarded incase of 6 of the G7 countries as the correlation appears to be constant in nature for them.
In relation to the above they have reached to a conclusion which proposes that the response of the policy incase when the stock market’s performance is signifying better results than expected, may need to have a stronger policy than the usual. But when the market conditions turn out to be on the extreme that is either in a positive condition or a negative one, additional effects on the policy shouldn’t have an impact by them.In this manner they have worked hard to establish a signifying linkage among capital market and actual economy and what effect does the capital market has on the actual economy.
Another economist, Chauvet, M. (2009), has compiled his work upon establishing an active linkage among capital market variations and the trade cycle. It is of the believe that the movements in the stock market is being reflected by the various positions held up by the participants of the market on the basis of their assessment pertaining to the present condition of the economy. With the help of the on hand financial variables, in this thesis, the researcher has tried to explore the likelihood of envisaging the key rotating spots of the business series. A model has been proposed by Chauvet (2009) that facilitates in generating the predicted key rotating spots of the business series with the help of the trade cycle factor. It also assists in anticipating these predicted turning points pertaining to the trade cycle with the help of the stock market factor. The author; Chauvet, M. (2009) also suggests in this paper, an indicator of the stock market named as the stock market indicator (SMI). With the help of various series of financials, the stock market indicator (SMI) financially assists in the anticipation of essential rotating spots of the business series better in comparison to its individual components. This indicates that the SMI model is by far a better alternative to be used as a tool in anticipating the essential turning points of the trade cycle. Besides that, SMI can also be evaluated by the month end, which highlights the latest information for that particular month of the year. In contrast the CLI model only highlights information pertaining to the preceding month. Therefore the underlying structure suggested by Chauvet, M. (2009), is utilized to study and explore the characteristics of the stock market activities in predicting the trade cycles, particularly the beginning of the recession as a result of which it establishes a strong correlation and one way causal relationship between stock market and the real economy. Monthly data has been taken into consideration by the author from 1954-1994, in studying the economic and financial variables. The name of the economic variables used is: industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales from 1982, non-agricultural civilian employment, and the sum of individual income minus the transfer of payments from 1987. The author has taken into account a number of other variables for the stock market factor, these variables reveal general facts and figures pertaining to the current situation of the financial environment, for example; the amendments in the S&P 500 PE ratio, surplus stock returns, 3-month Treasury bill rate and S&P 500 dividend yield. A two state Markov process has to b followed by each of the factors discussed above. These factors depict various phases of the trade cycle. All of the factors are of the permission to change asynchronously in due course of time.
Brenner, M., et al. (2010) throughout writing this paper have analyzed and examined the deep seated roots that are linked to the financial markets and the real economy. They have also examined the first public news pertaining to information of US macro economy to the short term anticipation and reaction of US stock, Treasury and Corporate Bond. The focus has been primarily placed upon studying the influence of these announcements on not just only on the different levels of those asset returns, but also upon the unpredictability and cooperative changes of those asset returns.
The procedure of how the price arrangement takes place in relation to the macroeconomic news for the three major segments of the market that is – stocks, government bonds and corporate bonds nad has also been explored by them.
While carrying out the research on the underlying variables they have come across 4 important issues:
- In relation to the first release of the announcements, what impact would these announcements have on the asset returns and the volatility of these asset returns?
- Does the affect of these announcements differ in their impact in different ways for the various asset classes?
- Is the current degree of correlation that exists between different asset classes are significantly affected by this news?
- Is the reaction to the predicted information or the unexpected components of these news driving the impact created by these news releases?
Having the flexibility of univariate GARCH model as opposed to the complex nature of the multivariate GARCH specifications, DCC
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