0115 966 7955 Today's Opening Times 10:00 - 20:00 (BST)

Analysis of the Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange

Disclaimer: This dissertation has been submitted by a student. This is not an example of the work written by our professional dissertation writers. You can view samples of our professional work here.

Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of UK Essays.

3.0 Chapter Three

3.1 Research Methodology

This chapter aims at explaining the methodology which has been adopted in this study. Research approaches or style have been categorized into mainly two groups, the phenomenological approach and positivist approach. The phenomenological approach studies the phenomenon through observation, no theory at outset while the positivist approach use an existing theory or develop a new theory and test its validity.

Since this study has used the existing theory on market efficiency therefore positivist approach have been adopted with this study, the rationale behind the choice of this approach is due to the nature of the study.

3.2 Research Design

Research design can be broadly classified as exploratory research and Conclusive research .This study is conclusive research design because it involves the testing of specific hypothesis and examination of relationships as well as the data analysis is quantitative and research process is formal.

3.3 Data types and sources

Two types of data that has been used in this study, the daily closing stock of market index(Dar es salaam Stock Exchange Index-DSEI) and the weekly share prices for a sample of five listed companies from Dar es salaam Stock Exchange. The daily closing stock for market index has covered the period from July 2007 to August 2008 making total number of observation to be 280, excluding public holidays and non trading days. The daily data prior to July 2007 were not found therefore the study had to use the available data .

The second type of data that has been used in this study are weekly share prices of the five companies/securities included in the study .The weekly data runs from Jan 2002 to August 2008, which makes the total number of observation to be between 90 and 266. The final date is the same for the all companies but the initial date differs depend on when the company joined the stock market.

The weekly data refers to the Wednesdays closing stock price, however if Wednesdays data were not available then Thursday closing price were used, in absence of Thursday data , Tuesday was taken instead, but when both Tuesday and Thursday were not available as well , the data for that week was regarded as a missing data. The use of weekly data is appropriate for this kind of studies as Humphrey and Lont (2005) asserted that 'weekly data helped to mitigate any non-trading effects and also reduced the effects of noise trading'. Even though the stock price was collected for the purpose of performing statistical tests, the actual test was conducted using natural logarithmic of the relative price. The stock return (denoted by R) was calculated by natural logarithmic difference of the weekly stock price given by the following equation

= [- )] (1)

Where:

Rt = Return at time t

P = Price at time t

The reasons why change in log price was used instead of the normal change in price, has been explain by Fama (1965), he mentioned that logarithms neutralize price level effects as well as producing a series of continuously compounded returns.

The daily closing stock for market index (DSEI) was used in performing the parametric serial correlation test and the weekly share prices for five listed companies was used to perform the non parametric runs test .In additional to the primary data (Stock prices) collected from Dar es salaam Stock Exchange, the study has also used the secondary source of data. The secondary data includes academic books, journals and other publications.

3.3.1 Thin Trading

As discussed earlier in literature review section, infrequency trading or thin trading is big problem in most of emerging stock market and failure to take into account can results into serious biasness of statistical results. In this study this problem has been taken into account and the weekly data were collected from infrequency trading.

The first step taken in controlling the infrequency trading was to eliminate the mostly thin traded securities / companies as Shanken (1987) depicted that some of researchers controls the thin trading problem by eliminating some of thin traded stocks. Initially the study was meant to include all ten companies listed in Dar es salaam Stock Exchange, however five companies were found to be very much affected by infrequency trading therefore were eliminated from the study.

The actual correction of weekly data from thin trading for the five companies included in this study was based on approach by Atchison et al (1987) as adjusted by Milambo et al (2003;cited in Mabhunu 2004). They suggested correcting thin trading problem by adjusting approach by Atchison at el (1987) who used uniform process which allocates returns equally over the days in multi -days interval where security not traded.

According to Mlambo et al (2003 ;cited in Mabhunu 2004), if a stock is not traded for example after 14 days of non trading, then a single entry given by the following equation

(2)

should be used as an oppose to 15 entries of equal value.

Where:

= Length of time between a trade in a period t and previous successive trade

= Price of stock at time t

= Dividend at time t

Therefore the infrequency problem in this study have been controlled by applying equation 2 without taking into account the dividend adjustment as it has been suggested that adjustments of dividend does not have much effects.Also the use of weekly data instead of daily data for individual companies has helped to control this problem.

3.3.1 Test of goodness -of-fit

One of the hypothesis in which the random walk has based on is about price changes to conform to some probability distribution. Therefore in testing the efficiency of stock market it is essential to identify the pattern and determine which known statistical distribution the pattern follows. In this study the Jarque-Bera test has beeen employed to test the normality of the stock return. This techniques has been used in several studies, includes the recent study of Market Return and Weak Form Efficiency: The case of Ghana by Frimpong and Oteng (2007). The Jarque-Bera test statistic is given by

JB = T(+ ) (3)

Where:

JB = Test Statistic

T = Number of observation

S = Sample Skewness

K = Sample Kurtosis.

Kurtosis which denoted by (K) in equation (3) measures the sharpness / peakness or flatness of the distribution of a series and is given by the following equation

K = (4)

A normal distributed series has kurtosis of 3, therefore whenever kurtosis of a series exceeds 3, the distribution of that series is regarded as leptokurtic relative to normal and if the kurtosis is less than 3, then the distribution is regarded as platykurtic(flat) relative to normal.

The skewness which denoted by (S) and computed by the following equation

S = (5)

Measures the asymmetric distribution of the series from its mean. A normal distributed series has skewness of zero, therefore if the skewness of the series is positive then the series is concluded to have a heavier right tail and if the skewness is negative the distribution is regarded as having a heavier left tail relative to normal.

The results of the Jarque-Bera test together with the skewness and kurtosis of the return series employed in this study have been reported in table 1.

3.4 Methods employed

As mentioned earlier this study aimed at achieving three main objectives, first to find empirical evidence of weak form efficiency hypothesis for Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, secondly to identify the main barriers for the development of the Dar es salaam Stock Exchange i.e. the factors that hampers the growth of DSE and lastly to identify the quality of information available to investors at Dar es salaam Stock Exchange. Therefore in this chapter the methods used in achieving each objective have been explained in detail, starting with the first objective.

3.4.1 Objective 1: Empirical evidence for weak form efficiency hypothesis.

In achieving the first objective, the study intended to answer the following two specific questions

Is the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange weak-form efficient?

Do the stock prices in Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange follow the random walk?

The study was guided by the following hypothesis

Dar es salaam Stock Exchange is weak form market efficient.

Stock price follows a random walk

Various techniques have been used so far in testing for weak form hypothesis by different researcher as depicted in literature review section, the techniques includes the statistical test of independence and trading rules.

In determining whether a stock market is a weak form or not using statistical test, the correlation / relationship between stock price and return over the successive time interval is identified. If no significant correlation found then the market is regarded as weak form market as past return can not be used to determine future return. The market will be regarded as weak form inefficient if significant correlation will be found.

In testing our first null hypothesis, one statistical test of independence have been employed, the serial correlation test . The non parametric runs test was employed to test our second null hypothesis, the random walk hypothesis. The following is the explanation of each statistical test employed in this study.

Serial correlation test

It is among the widely used test of independence .The serial correlation test measures the correlation of a variable over consecutive time interval e.g. at time t and time t-1.The reasons why this approach have been chosen to be used in this study is because of its familiarity in this kind of study. Several studies have employed this technique for example Vaidyanathan (1994) in the study of efficiency of the Indian capital market employed this approach. Similarly, Baral and Shrestha (2006) studying the daily stock behavior of commercial banks in Nepal, used the same approach.

In testing the weak form efficiency of the stock market using this approach, the correlation of log price/return series is determined, if autocorrelation is found the assumptions will be that the series does not follow the random walk, meaning that the stock price are not independent, past return can be used to determine the future return and hence the market is weak form inefficient.

The test statistic for the serial correlation coefficient for lag p can be express as

p = (5)

Similarly written as

P = (6)

In determining the autocorrelation of the return in this study, the Ljung-Box test was used. This is a portmanteau test which measures the autocorrelation of the variable. The Ljung-Box test statistic is given by

=T(T+2) (7)

Where by:

= Test Statistic

T = Number of observations

= Is the jth autocorrelation or autocorrelation coefficient (for lag j)

K = Number of coefficients to test autocorrelation, in other words the number of lag to be Tested.

Given the value of obtained from the test, the conclusion on the randomness of the log price/return can be reached if > , K at significance level α, where by , K means the α-quantile of the Chi-square distribution with K degrees of freedom. Alternatively if the p-value obtained from the statistical test is less than 0.05,then the test is significant at 95% level of confidence and therefore the null hypothesis of zero auto correction can be rejected. The results for this test have been reported in figure 1in the next chapter.

Runs test

This is the second test that had been employed in this study to test for the second null hypothesis. Unlike parametric tests such as serial correlation, a runs test is a non-parametric test which means that it does not require the normal distribution of the series. This is one of the advantage of using this approach and it is also the reason why this technique has been adopted in our study. A run can be define as a 'set of identical (or related) symbols contained between two different symbols or no symbol (such as at the beginning or end of the sequence)'Spiegel et al (2000.p366).

In performing this test, each change in return/price is classified as positive (+), negative (-) and zero change (0). Alternatively change in return could be classified alphabetically for example A ,could be each return that equal or exceeds the mean value and B could be each return that are below mean value. The test can be executed to obtained the actual number of runs (denoted by V), and then the actual number of runs (V) can be compared with the expected number of runs () which is given by the following equation

= (8)

Where

= Expected number of runs

N = Total number of return observations

= Sample size of each category of price change

If actual number of runs will be greater than expected runs, it will be indications of negative serial correlation and if actual runs fall below expected return it will indicate the positive serial correlation of the return. Alternatively the p-value obtained can be used to conclude on the results of this test, if p-value is less than 0.05, then the test is significant at 95% level of confidence and therefore the null hypothesis of randomness can be rejected.

For a large sample i.e (N>30), the sampling distribution of V is approximately corresponds to a normal distribution and thus

Z = (9)

Where:

Z = Z-Test Statistic

V = Actual return

= Expected return

= Standard deviation given by the following equation

= [{+ N (N+1)} - 2N - (10)

Therefore at appropriate level of significance, the Z-statistic can be used to test for independence of return series.

The reason why the randomness tests such as non parametric runs test are used to test for the efficiency of the stock market is because efficiency of the stock market is determined by the way information are incorporated in current stock price. For a well efficient market , new information is incorporated instantaneously and spontaneously and therefore no arbitrage opportunity can exist.

Since new information is incorporated instantaneously and spontaneously in current stock price then stock price/returns will be generated in random fashion i.e there will be no any pattern. In relation to the weak form efficient market all past information is expected to be incorporated in current stock price in such a way that a positive change in returns is not expected to be followed by positive change in return or negative to be followed by negative as the returns generated randomly. However, for the weak inefficient market all past information are not incorporated instantaneously and spontaneously as the results the change in returns is generated in a pattern which can lead to opportunity of making fortune.

Therefore testing of randomness helps to reveal the how new information is incorporated in current stock price and the way returns are generated, if its in a random fashion or with pattern. This helps in drawing conclusion regarding the efficiency of a stock market. The results for this non parametric runs test are shown in table 2 & 3 and discussed in the next chapter.

Objective 2:Factors affecting the growth/ development of Dar es salaam

Stock Exchange

Despite aim of finding empirical evidence of weak form hypothesis, also the second objective of this study was to identify and discuss major factors/ challenges that have been affecting the development and progress of Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange.

April 2008, the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange celebrated its tenth years anniversary, however for the period of its ten years of operations; we have witness the slow growth / development of the stock market, only few companies have been listed so far. But what are the main causes of this slow growth? in terms of listing of companies?, what are the challenges faced by the stock market?.

Further more the numbers of individuals participating in the market as investors is not so impressive, in a speech by the minister of finance and economic affairs on 10th anniversary of DSE , he said the market so far DSE has enable more than 116,651 Tanzanians to own shares. This is small figure to be as a minimum figure for the country with population of approximately 39.4 million people, we would expect a good number of individual to be aware of operations of the stock market and hence participating and a minimum figure could have been a million and above, however the situation is different then what is the real problem?, are there any efforts by the market authority to ensure the general public is aware of the stock market operations and hence increase the number of investors in the market?.

Despite of the barriers and challenges for its growth, what measures have been and will be taken to ensure the stock market is growing? .What are the future prospects of the market? . In achieving our second objective the above mentioned questions will be addressed and discussed. This was done through reviewing and studying of the existing literature and publications regarding Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange and African stock markets in general, since most of the emerging African stock markets share the same kind of the obstacle/ challenges. The findings and discussion of these issues have been presented the following chapter.

Objective 3: The quality of information to investor and other stakeholders at DSE.

The last objective was to determine the quality of information available to investors and other stakeholders at Dar es Salaam Stock Market. There various sources of information for investors in any stock market and one of the sources is financial statements. Even though financial statements are sometimes subjective to the manipulation of management and by the time financial statements are published some changes might have already happen, yet financial statements remains to be crucial source of information for investors and analysts.

Normally the existing investors as well as potential investors would like to know how the investment have been well managed as this will give them the overall picture on how safe investing in the company has been or will be. Using the published financial statements, investors and analysts can acquire valuable information which can help in their decision making.

However, investors will be deprived from using this type of source of information, if the information provided with the financial statements are not of good quality and required standard. According to Benston (2003), if the information provided by financial statements is not useful and accurate then its reception will not give investors the kind of insight they wanted and as the results investors will incur costs to find information somewhere else.

Therefore with this objective, the quality of information available to investors in DSE was determined and discussed. This was achieved through a comparison of financial statement of Tanzania Breweries Limited (TBL)- a company listed in Dar es salaam Stock Exchange and Sanisbury PLC - a company listed in London Stock Exchange.

The aim of the comparison was to determine if an investor in DSE using financial statement will get the same quality of information similar to an investor in London Stock Exchange. In this comparison in additional of looking the contents and standards in which these annual report have been prepared also the study looked at the general accessibility of the annual report and other company's information which might be helpful to investors between these company .Also the general overview of corporate governance between these two companies was analyzed and discussed. The results and discussions of this comparison have been presented in the following chapter.

3.5 Data Analysis

Since the study had involve the statistical tests, therefore data was analyzed with the help of statistical packages. The parametric serial correction test and parametric runs test was performed using SPSS (Statistical Package For Social Science) and the Jarque -Bera test was performed using EVIEWS .Both quantitative and qualitative approach have been used in interpreting the results of analysis

4.0 Chapter Four: Data Analysis, Presentation & Discussion of Findings

4.1 Introduction

The aim of this chapter is to present the analysis and discuss the findings of the study. The chapter have been divided in three main part (A, B, C). The first part (A), reports the results and the discussions from statistical tests relating to the first objective of this study. Part B and C report the findings and discussions relating to the second and third objectives respectively .

4.2 Part A : Empirical evidence for weak form efficiency hypothesis

In finding the empirical evidence for weak form efficiency hypothesis in Dar es salaam Stock Exchange ,three main statistical tests were performed , firstly the normality test i.e the Jarque - Bera test, parametric serial correlation test and non parametric runs test, the findings of these test are presented in that order.

4.2.1 Test of goodness - of- fit

Since it is essential to determine the probability distribution of the series when performing efficiency tests /statistical tests, therefore the returns for the stock market index(DSEI) as well as the returns for the five companies used in the study were firstly analyzed to determine if the return series follows the normal distribution. The result of nomality test are shown in table 1

Table 1: Jarque- Bera Test

 

DAHACO

DSEI

SIMBA

TBL

TCC

TWIGA

Mean

0.002166

0.000227

0.006390

0.002727

0.000724

0.008349

Median

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

Maximum

0.141970

0.021668

0.277632

0.202941

0.074108

0.287682

Minimum

-0.182322

-0.024520

-0.253781

-0.146093

-0.117783

-0.072759

Std. Dev.

0.028979

0.002794

0.045971

0.027860

0.021852

0.040065

Skewness

-0.462822

-0.623957

0.863549

2.133508

-0.934278

4.314131

Kurtosis

15.81011

39.73707

17.61886

23.35083

11.19382

29.39428

             

Jarque-Bera

1216.549

15707.35

1751.608

4792.031

532.6697

2891.643

Probability

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

Sum

0.383447

0.063240

1.239581

0.725336

0.130979

0.751392

Sum Sq. Dev.

0.147799

0.002170

0.407877

0.205694

0.085951

0.142861

Observations

177

279

194

266

181

90

Source : Analyzed data

As shown in the table 1, the p-value of the jarque -bera test for stock market index series(DSEI) and the p-value for the five individual companies is below 0.05 i.e p-value < 0.05 .This implies that the test is significant at 95% confidence level and therefore the null hypothesis of normality distribution of the returns series is rejected for the both market index and individual companies.

As depicted in the table 1 above, the return for the market index(DSEI), TCC Ltd and DAHACO/SWISSPORT Ltd are negatively skew(heavier left tail) as their skewness less than zero. I,e skewness < 0. The skewness of TBL Ltd, Simba Ltd and Twiga Ltd are greater than zero( skewness > 0) which means that their returns are positively skew( a heavier right tail) relative to normal. A perfectly symmetrical distribution such as normal distribution has skewness which equal to zero.

Regarding the kurtosis which describe the flatness or peaknedness of the distribution the results shows that the returns of both market index and individual companies have kurtosis greater than three i.e kurtosis > 3, which implies that the distribution of the returns are sharply peaked (leptokurtic) relative to normal. The p-value from test statistic, kurtosis and skewness indicates the rejection of normality for the returns so the general conclusion which can be drawn from the test of goodness-of-fit is that the returns employed in this study are not normally distributed and therefore non parametric statistical tests are more appropriate to be used than parametric statistical tests.

4.2.2 Results of Serial Correlations/ Autocorrelation Test

Though it has been suggested that when the series is not normally distributed then non parametric tests would be more appropriate to be employed, the decision to include parametric serial correlation test in this study was taken based on the argument and justification put forward by Mlambo et al (2003: cited in Mabhum 2004), they asserted that serial parametric tests ' help in detecting the presence of higher order serial correlation which is difficult to detect by merely using the runs test'.

Based on this justification they perform serial correlation test despite the fact that the normality hypothesis was rejected. Similarly ,based on the same justification the serial correlation test have been employed in this study as one of the statistical tests to test for the efficiency in Dar es salaam Stock Exchange. Furthermore several studies have been conducted using serial correlation test despite the fact that the null hypothesis of normality was rejected for the returns series employed. For example Poshakwale(1996) and Mobarek (2000) used autocorrelation test despite the rejection of normality.The results for the autocorrelation test performed at 16 lags are shown in figure 1.

Plot Symbols: Autocorrelations * Two Standard Error Limits .

Total cases: 280 Computable first lags after differencing: 278

The Q static (Box - Ljung statistic), test the null hypothesis that the autocorrelation observed up to and including each lag is zero. As indicated in figure 1, the p-value observed are mostly below 0.05 which means the test is significant at 95% level of confidence and therefore the null hypothesis of autocorrelation is zero at all lags can be rejected. This test was performed in response to the first hypothesis of the study and to answer our first research question which was asking if Dar es salaam Stock exchange is a weak form efficient market .

Based on the findings from this test it can be concluded that the returns of the stock market index(DSEI) for this particular period shows significant autocorrelation and therefore Dar es salaam Stock Exchange is weak form inefficient market. This findings are similar to the findings by Hassan et al (2003) in a study of stock market efficiency in the Gulf cooperation council countries (GCC); the case of Kuwait Stock Exchange using serial correlation method and linear model approach concluded that Kuwait Stock Exchange was weak form inefficient at that particular time. Similary, Poshakwale (1994) studying weak form efficiency and day of the weak effect in the Indian stock market , reported the violation of weak form efficiency in Bombay Stock Exchange and therefore concluded that the market is weak form inefficiency in that particular period of time..

4.2.3 Runs Test

The results for the runs test are presented in table 2 and table 3. The table two Shows the results of runs test for observe weekly data(before correcting for infrequent trading)

Table 2: Runs Test: (Observed Data).

 

RTBL

RTCC

RSIMBA

RDAHACO

RTWIGA

Test Value

.00000000

.00000000

.00000000

.00000000

.00000000

Cases < Test Value

49

31

30

40

23

Cases >= Test Value

217

150

164

137

67

Total Cases

266

181

194

177

90

Number of Runs

76

47

41

62

25

Z

-1.014

-1.419

-2.966

-.199

-2.864

Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)

.311

.156

.003

.842

.004

Source: Analyzed data

As shown in table 2 , the p-values for the two companies, Simba Ltd and Twiga Ltd are below 0.05, implying that at 95% level of confidence , the statistical test for the return of these two companies are significant and therefore the null hypothesis of randomness measured by runs test can be rejected. For the remaining three companies; TBL Ltd, TCC Ltd and Dahaco/Swissport Ltd the null hypotheses of randomness could not be rejected as the statistical test was not significant at 95% level of confidence , since the p-values of these three companies are above 0.05.

However, after taking into consideration the thin trading problem and correct data for infrequency trading, the results in table.... Shows that for the all five companies in this study, the test is statistical significant at 95% level of confidence as their p-values are below 0.05 and therefore the null hypothesis of randomness can be rejected.

This implies that the change in return for both five companies do not generated randomly i.e there is correlation between today's return and yesterday's return, in other words the future return / stock price for these companies can be predicted. In efficiency terms we could say that past information is not instantaneously and spontaneously included in current stock price. The results for the runs test corresponds to the results obtained earlier in autocorrelation test using market index return (DSEI) regarding the efficiency in Dar es salaam Stock Exchange.

Table 3 : Runs Test (Corrected weekly data)

 

TBL

TCC

SIMBA

DAHACO

TWIGA

Test Value

.00000000

.00000000

.00000000

.00000000

.00000000

Cases < Test Value

68

73

65

61

25

Cases >= Test Value

264

257

228

199

67

Total Cases

332

330

293

260

92

Number of Runs

81

67

49

74

25

Z

-4.757

-7.643

-9.025

-3.531

-3.298

Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

.000

.000

.000

.001

Source: Analyzed data

The non parametric runs test was performed in order to answer the second research question and in responds to the second null hypothesis which was about the randomly walk of the stock prices. Therefore based on the results from runs test after adjusting data from infrequency trading the answer for the second research question is that stock prices in DSE do not follow the random walk and hence the second null hypothesis of the study has been rejected on basis of this test and can be concluded that since stock prices/ returns are not generated randomly therefore DSE is weak form inefficient.

The findings of this runs test are consistent with the findings by Mobarek (2000) studying weak form efficiency of Dhaka Stock Market using runs test together with other tests concluded that the price stock in Dhaka Stock Market did not follow the random walk i.e the market was weak form inefficient. Also Wheeler et al (2002) using runs test and autocorrelation test studying the efficiency of the Warsaw Stock Exchange concluded that during the period of one to three day sessions of trading per week the market was weak form inefficient

4.3 Part B : Factors affecting the development of Dar es salaam Stock Exchange

The Second objective of this study was aiming at identifying and discussing various factors affecting the development/ growth of Dar es salaam Stock Exchange. But before discussing the major factors affecting DSE, it is useful first to discuss some general factors hampering the development of all African emerging markets. This is due to the fact that most of the African stock markets faces the same kinds of challenges.

In determining the growth of the stock market among the indicators used are Market capitalization, number of listed companies and market liquidity. The statistics shows that though the market capitalization for the emerging market has been increasing, however comparing with the market capitalization of the developed market, the emerging markets are still behind. The emerging markets occupy only 28.3% of the world market capitalization while the developed markets has the remaining 71.7% of the total world market capitalization (Global Stock Markets Fact book 2008).

Looking at the performance of emerging markets alone, the statistics as depicted in the table 3,show the Asian emerging markets are performing better than most of the African stock markets in term of market capitalization. It is clear that the growth rate between African emerging markets and other emerging markets such as Asia does not match. In most of African Stock markets the growth rate has been low as Parkinson and Waweru (2008) asserted that 'stock exchange in Africa appear to have missed out on many opportunities seized elsewhere. Although there long history of stock exchange in Africa, some going as far back as colonial times, their growth rates have generally been slow or even stagnant, and their role in capital mobilatization appears in many cases to have been negligible'.

Table 3: Market capitalization for Asia & Africa at the end of 2007

 

Number of Stock

Market Capitalization (US$million)

Asia:

   

China

699

1,509,995

India

216

598,759.7

Taiwani

601

520,776.2

Korea

450

687,356.5

Africa:

   

South Africa

140

265,686.4

Morocco

25

25,178.7

Nigeria

33

47,121.5

Zimbwabwe

19

1,167.7

Source: Extracted from Global Stock Markets Fact book (2008).

The big question is on the major impediments account for the slow growth rate or development of African stock markets. Despite the fact that there are no numerous literatures in regards to emerging African stock markets, however, several studies have been conducted in effort of identifying the major challenges for the developments of African stock markets. For example Benimadhu(2003), identify the factors affecting the development of African markets and categorized them into two groups, the political and macro-economic set up which includes issues such as political instability and internal strife, macroeconomic uncertainties and high volatility in GDP .The second group is the stock market specific factors which includes issues such as availability of market information, liquidity, corporate governance, practices of listed companies ,settlement infrastructure and manual trading.

Mensah(2003) described some of the challenges for development of African capital market and said ' in additional to small size of the market African capital markets face some well- known shorticomings; limited listing and illiquidity,low investor confidence, gaps and insufficiencies of legal framework and unsupportive macroeconomic policies.

Since the objective of the study is to identify the factors behind the slow growth rate of Dar es salaam Stock Exchange, therefore the discussion has focus more on stock market specific factors. However, firstly the macroeconomic setting and political stability have be discussed in determining how it affects the growth of the stock markets in Africa.

Political and Macroeconomic stability

Internal conflicts and political instability are very common in most of African countries. This has been one of the major stumbling blocks for economic development for this continent. Stock markets in Africa have been affected with this kind of internal conflicts and political instability. For the stock market to develop / grow more company are required to be listed as well as strong investor base must exists, but which company foreign or domestic will dare to invest in a torn apart country?, will the investors be willing to invest in such uncertainty environment?, it is clear that the internal conflicts will definitely affect the willingness to invest by the individual investors as well as companies.

In additional to political instability, most of African countries are affected by macroeconomic instability and this directly affect the performance of the stock markets in Africa as Garcia(1999) asserted that ' general macroeconomic stability may well be an important factor for development of the stock markets'.

Macroeconomic stability can be indicated by inflation rate, the income level (real income), saving rate etc. The real income of the majority of the people in African countries deprived them from participating as investors in financial markets as living expenses increase day by day, saving and investing become difficult and a big problem for the majority.

Yartey and Komla (2007) studying the development of stock market in sub-saharan Africa said 'A stable macroeconomic environment is crucial for the development of the stock market. Macroeconomic volatility worsens the problem of information asymmetries and becomes a source of vulnerable to the financial system'. In general macroeconomic instability has great impact on the development of African stock markets , since it cause the investing to become more risky and difficult.

Though these problems have existed for many years in this continent, yet much can and should be done to improve he situation. A true democracy should be practiced in Africa in order to reduce and eventually remove all repeated internal conflicts. Good governance, transparency and the rule of law must exists in African politics to bring political stability in the continent.

Macroeconomic instability can be also improved as Africa has all the resources it requires for its development, but the biggest challenge and problem is corruption and good management of the resources. There are so many examples of African leaders who misused the resource of their countries by steeling and keeping the monies in western banks, which otherwise could be used for the economic development of the country. To solve this problem the emphases should be on good governance of the country's resources and the rule of law. When macroeconomic environment and political situation become stable, will results into making a good platform for the stock markets development.

After discussing the macroeconomic and political setting, as the general factors affecting the development of African stock markets now lets discuss some of the major stock market specific factors which have been the biggest challenges for most of the African stock markets.

Liquidity

Regarding the stock markets specific factors,low liquidity is regarded as major barrier for the development of the stock market. Even though the statistics shows that the number of listed companies in most of African stock markets have increased yet still the size is small compared to stock markets in other emerging markets. Cohn(2000) argued that ' the lack of significant number of listed companies is a major cause of the paucity of daily trading and concomitant lack of liquidity with the stock'.In additional to small number of the listed companies, in most African stock market only few stock are actively traded and hence few stock influence the market capitalization.

According to Atta(2007) ' liquidity remains a big risk in Africa due to small floats and the small size of many listed equities'. Therefore In order to deal with this problem, more companies must to be listed and become more actively in trading, this will be achieved through setting conducive environment in terms of legal frame work and policies which will encourage more companies to be listed. Additionally general public must be educated enough regarding the activities of the stock market as the knowledge on trading will encourage them to invest and make the market more active.

Manual trading and Poor infrastructure

Manual trading and poor infrastructure has been another bottleneck for many years, holding back the growth of African stock markets. The infrastructure for information, communication technology (ICT) is very poor and therefore many stock markets in Africa have not take advantage of having ICT and exploit it for the development of the stock market.

Most of African stock markets have been manually operated, though effort are being done for the markets to become electronic operated, but till now some of the African Stock Markets are manually traded/ operated. To ensure smooth growth of the stock market in Africa, more effort should be done to transform all manually operated markets to become electronic operated markets as this will increase the efficiency of the market and takes the market further steps forward.

Public awareness and availability of information

This is another draw back for development of many African stock market. The general public in many African countries is not full aware on stock markets operations. Kibuthu(2005) studying the capital markets in emerging economies, in additional to liquidity found public awareness among the factors affecting the Nairobi Stock Exchange. Similarly Osei( 1998), studying factors affecting the development of an emerging capital market ; the case of Ghana found lack of awareness, lack of effective education as among the major challenges for the development of Ghana Stock Exchange.

Most of African stock market have shown some effort in creating public awareness regarding the operations of the market, however the effort done are not enough to create great impact to the general public, more measure must be taken. There must be a proper system of educating the general public about the activity of the market for example the information or education on stock market could have been designed in such a way that its start with beginners level , for those people with no previous knowledge on stock market operations , to the advance level for the people with some knowledge on stock market.

In additional to public awareness problem, generally the availability of information and information access is big problem in most of African countries. Recording is very poor and furthermore the accessibility of the available information at a times is very difficult, there strong beuarecracy is access the information even for the type of information which in normal circumstances should have been freely available to the public. It is surprising to find out that some of the listed companies in African stock market do not have even a company website to inform the public on its activities and progress.

Public awareness on stock market activities and information access are very crucial in stock market development as Zervos and Levina(1996) mentioned that ' easy access to information about listed firms by the domestic and foreign investors is positively associated with stock market development'. This implies that for the steady growth of African stock markets, more effort should be done to create public awareness about stock markets operations through proper education system. Also the availability of information and its accessibility should not be difficult, this can be achieved through proper record keeping with help of modern technology and easy access of the information to the public.

In additional to the previously discussed factors, also other factors have been mentioned as among the challenges for the development of emerging African stock markets these includes, accounting requirements, corporate governance of listed firms. Yartey(2008) studying the determinant of stock market development in emerging economies, apart from liquidity and macroeconomic stability also banking sector development, domestic and real income were found to be highly correlated with the size of the stock market i.e development of the stock market.In another study Pardy and Dong (1993) found correlation between financial depth and stock market development for the period between 1984-90 for 32 countries. Similary ,Kunt and Levina(1993) in a prerilemenary study found the complementary relationship between development of stock market and financial intermediaries . This implies that a good financial system can properly the growth of stock while bad or poor financial system can humper its development.

The Dar es salaam Stock Exchange

Having discussed the major and common challenges for the development of African stock markets, now lets focus into stock market specific factors which have been affecting the development of Dar es salaam Stock Exchange. However , before discussing the specific factors, lets discuss on the macroeconomic and political setting and identify if they have been a major challenge for the progress of the market.

Macroeconomic instability has been among of the major factor affecting the growth of Dar es laam Stock Exchange. Lack of capital in the country and poverty among the society prohibits most of poor Tanzanians to participate in the financial system. The statistics shows that between 2000- 2006, 36% of Tanzanians population where living below national poverty line (World bank 2008). With such low income and expensive living expenditures it became very difficult for most of people to participate in financial system either by saving or investing.

The macroeconomic environment in Tanzania could be improved dramatically since Tanzania has all the resources needed for its development such as mines, gases and oil. Other sector of economy such as agriculture and tourism have not been exploited enough for the benefit of the society. For example Tanzania is the only country in the world in which the gem stone called 'Tanzanite' can be found however, the country has not benefited for being the only producer and generally the ordinary Tanzanian has not benefited with the mine sector.

Similar to other African countries , the big problem is corruption and lack of good governance of the people entrusted with the public to manage the national resources on behalf the society. The economic improvement of the country could have boost the development of DSE as the majority of Tanzanians could have better life and good income which means , they would be able to participate in financial system and hence became stakeholder in DSE.

Regarding the political instability and internal conflicts, these has not been draw back for the progress of DSE because since the independence of Tanganyika and the union with Zanzibar to form republic of Tanzania, the country has been peaceful and calm. The only problem has been the economic development of the country, which could have been improved dramatically through good governance and accountability.

Among the stock market specific factors , accounting requirements, lack of information or awareness on the stock market operation, liquidity, manual trading and cost of listing have been mentioned as a major challenges for the development of the Dar es salam Stock Exchange. McGregor (2008),reported that in an interview with IPS this year, the Chief Officer(CEO) of DSE mentioned some of the challenges faced by DSE in its development which includes: reluctance of companies to join DES due to accounting requirements and lack of understanding and awareness regarding the operations of DES.

Accounting requirements

Accounting requirements has been a major block for more companies to be listed at DSE as many company are reluctant to join the market due to the concern of exposing their accounting books for the public scrutiny. Many private companies in Tanzania take advantage of weak laws and lack of adequate law enforcement


To export a reference to this article please select a referencing stye below:

Reference Copied to Clipboard.
Reference Copied to Clipboard.
Reference Copied to Clipboard.
Reference Copied to Clipboard.
Reference Copied to Clipboard.
Reference Copied to Clipboard.
Reference Copied to Clipboard.

Request Removal

If you are the original writer of this dissertation and no longer wish to have the dissertation published on the UK Essays website then please click on the link below to request removal:


More from UK Essays

Get help with your dissertation
Find out more