Analysis on the Bank Performance of Nigerian Banks
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The provisional title of this research project is: Consolidation and bank performance; analysis of Nigerian Banks 2004 to 2006. The choice of this topic emanates from the fact that the current credit crisis and the transatlantic mortgage financial turmoil have questioned the effectiveness of bank consolidation programme as a remedy for financial stability and monetary policy in correcting the defects in the financial sector for sustainable development. Many banks consolidation had taken place in Europe, America and Asia in the last two decades without any solutions in sight to bank failures and crisis. The paper attempts to examine the performances of government induced banks consolidation and macro-economic performance in Nigeria in pre-consolidation and post-consolidation period. The paper analyses published audited accounts of two (2) out of twenty-five (25) banks that emerged from the consolidation exercise and data from the Central Banks of Nigeria (CBN). We denote year 2004 as the pre-consolidation and 2005 and 2006 as post-consolidation periods for our analysis.
In doing this, efforts would be made to examine empirically how bank consolidation through recapitalization has affected the performance of Nigerian banks during the period covered by the research. The data for the work are from secondary sources and would be obtained exclusively from the Central Bank of Nigeria and bank publications, both electronic and paper form. CAMEL analysis will be employed to analyse the financial data so as to ascertain the relationship between consolidation and bank performance. The CAMEL analysis is chosen because of its optimal properties, simple computational procedures and is suitable for an empirical work such as the present research project work. Against the findings that would emerge from the intended empirical investigation of this work, appropriate recommendations that are likely to better enhance the effectiveness of banking sector reforms in Nigeria thereby restoring confidence in the system.
The Nigerian banking sector over the past 20 to 25 years has experienced boom and bust in a cyclical pattern. After the implementation of the structural adjustment program (SAP) in 1986 and the deregulation of the financial sector, new banks proliferated, mainly driven by attractive arbitrage opportunities in the foreign exchange market (Heiko 2007). Prior to the deregulated period, financial intermediation never took off and even declined in 1980s and 1990s (Capirio and Kligbiel 2003).
The sector was highly oligopolistic with remarkable features of market concentration and leadership. Lemo (2005) noted that there are ten Nigerian banks that control more than 50% of the aggregate assets of the banking sector; more than 51% of the aggregate deposit liabilities and more than 45% of the aggregate credits.
The sector was characterized by small sized banks with high overheads; low capital base averaging less than $10million; heavy reliance on government patronage and loss making. Nigeria's banking sector was still characterized by a high degree of fragmentation and low levels of financial intermediation up until 2004. In the light of the foregoing, banks are compelled by the Central Bank of Nigeria to raise their capital base from N2 billion to 25 billion on or before 31st December, 2005. Most banks resorted to mergers and acquisition as a survival strategy, which saw a reduction in the number of banks from 89 to 25.
This study contributes to the concept of bank recapitalization by critically examining the impact of bank consolidation on the performance of banks using a sample of randomly selected Nigerian banks. It is the intention of the researcher to give more validity to empirical evidence that have been obtained by previous researchers on the subject matter.
Relevance of the study
The earliest set of studies evaluates the effects of bank consolidation through mergers and acquisitions comparing pre- and post- merger performance by measuring performance using either accounting or productive efficiency indicators.The results from both indicators have varied and at sometimes been contradictory. This can be explained by performance-influencing variables like size, brand name, diversification and cost reduction, there is still no reconciliation between these indicators.
I intend to contribute to the determinants of bank performance by evaluating the possible performance impact of bank consolidation on banks. Consolidation is the key to improving the performance of banks with low capital base, without which they are bound to fail.
1.3 Background of study
Aside being the highest contributor to the market capitalization of the Nigerian stock exchange and smooth and stable income provision to money and capital market, banking industry is capable of attracting potential investor which is a source of every economic development. Financial institutions generally, and banking sector in particular play a crucial role in the development process of mobilizing fund from the surplus sector of the economy to the deficit sectors of the economy. Banks help in increasing the quantum of national savings and investment. Consequently, the volume of goods and services produced in the economy increases overtime through the multiplier effect. Banks enhance stable and smooth income to attract potential investors in line with Modigliani and Miller (1958) theory that investors generally have preference for smooth and stable income.
According to sloan and Arlond (1970) consolidation is a fusion of the assets and liabilities, in whole or in part of two or more business establishment. Consolidation represents the idea of investment and the coming together of firms; it can also mean larger sizes, larger shareholder bases and larger number of depositors. According to Adamu (2005) bank or corporate consolidation could be achieved by way of mergers/acquisition and recapitalization. It is more than mere shrinking of number of banks in any banking industry.
According to Hall (1999) consolidation is a global phenomenon, which started in the advanced economies of the world. For example, the enactment of Riegle-Neal Act, which allows interstate branch banking beginning from 1997 this led to increase in bank mergers in the USA (Akhavin et al and kwan 2004). Consolidation allow a mega bank to enjoy higher profit, increase revenue and low problem loans. Japanese banking industry also experienced consolidation in the 1990s which resulted to economies of scale (Fukuyama, 1993; Mckillop et al 1996).
When banks go bust, their capital base is called to question. Cases of bank failures have motivated researchers to investigate the activities of banks in relation to performance in terms of returns.
A view is that consolidation has increased the capital base and size of Nigerian banks but does not necessarily bring about higher performance.
Criteria Selecting Nigeria Study
Consolidation is a term used by the central bank of Nigeria (CBN) to describe the coming together of some banks within the country to become one bank and be able to meet CBN's requirement for capitalization to a minimum of N25billion. When this happens, it is expected to improve services rendered by the banks.
In July 6, 2004, a day now referred to as black Tuesday" in banking sector of the economy, the CBN Governor, professor Charles Soludo made an obviously unexpected policy pronouncement. The highlight was the increment of the earlier N2billion to N25 billion, with full compliance deadline fixed for the end of the year 2005.
In a bid for banks to meet up with the new requirement, some Banks are exploring the option of inviting foreign investors to buy into Banks. Others are looking at the possibility of getting investors to shore up their capital, and some are looking at the capital market option, while others are considering mergers and acquisition.
If the process of consolidation is properly implemented the ongoing consolidation of banks in the country will surely improve the banking sector in Nigeria and translate to better banking services and cheap funds.Â More importantly, the public will not have fear of distress in any bank, since the consolidated bank will have enough funds.
The need to understand the impact of bank consolidation on Nigerian banks either negative or positive necessitated the use of Nigerian banks as sample for this study.
- To analyze the effect of consolidation on the performance of Nigerian Banks
- To examine the consolidation process of Nigerian banks.
- To Asses the performance of Nigerian banks before and after consolidation.
- To evaluate the impact of consolidation on Nigerian banks.
CHAPTER 2: Literature Review
This chapter attempts to gain an in-depth view into what is already known in connection with the research topic being studied. It therefore brings to light the different theoretical and methodological approach to the research area, helps develop a practical analytical framework, considers inclusion of variables that may not have been thought about from the inception of the research work and in the long run learning can be gained from mistakes of previous researchers and avoidance of such mistakes would be achieved (Bryman & Bell, 2003).
The scope of the research is narrowed down through successful study of literature review that was continuous all through the research process. Further, the review of literature will incorporate a wide range of materials sourced from journal articles, corporate websites, government websites, multilateral organisations, text books and online databases which include: Wiley, Science Direct, Emerald and Business Source Premier.
Reforms are predicated upon the need for reorientation and repositioning of an existing status quo in order to attain an effective and efficient state. There could be fundamental bottle-neck that may inhibit the functioning of the institutions for growth and the achievement of core objectives in the drive towards enhancing and sustaining the economic and social imperatives of human endeavor. Carried out through either government institutions or private enterprises, reform becomes inevitable in the light of the global dynamic exigencies and emerging landscape.
Consequently, the banking sector, as an important sector in the financial landscape, needs to be reformed in order to enhance its competitiveness and capacity to play a fundamental role of financing investment. Many literature indicates that banking sector reforms are propelled by the need to deepen the financial sector and reposition for growth, to become integrated into the global financial architecture; and involve a banking sector that is consulting with regional integration requirements and international best practices.
The nexus between consolidation and financial sector stability and growth is explained by two polar views. Proponents of consolidation opined that increase size could potentially increase bank returns, through revenue and cost efficiency gains. It may also, reduce industry risks through the eliminations of weak banks and create better diversification opportunities. On the other hand, it is argued that consolidation could increase banks' propensity towards risk taking through increases in leverage and off-balance sheet operations.
Furlong (1994) stated that an early view of consolidation in banking was that it makes banking more cost efficient because larger banks can eliminate excess capacity in areas like data processing, marketing, or overlapping branch networks. Cost efficiency also could increase if more efficient banks acquired less efficient ones. Though studies on efficiency in banking raised doubts about the extent of overcapacity, they did point to considerable potential for improvement in cost efficiency through mergers.
Banking reforms involves several elements that are unique to each country based on historical economic and institutional imperatives, for example, in Hungary. Evidence show that the reform in the banking sector was due to high under-capitalization of state owned banks, weakness in the regulation and supervision and deficiencies in corporate governance behavior of banks.
Craig and Hardee (2004) conducted investigation on bank consolidation and concluded that as the banking consolidation continues, "relationship" lending is becoming increasingly rare. As credit scoring and formal, formulaic methods are used more and more, specifically by the large banks, many small businesses may find out that they do not "fit" the model, especially those enterprises with negative equity. Thus, small businesses may be filling the financing void that is being created by the bank consolidation with non-bank sources of funds.
Hughes and Mester (1997) provide evidence to suggest that there are scale economics in banking, bank managers are risk averse, and banks use the level of their financial capital to signal the level of risk. This is an area of interest in Nigerian banking, especially when the return on equity is calculated in another two to three years and then compared with the historical industry average. Rhoades(1996) reported that American banks consolidated in response to the removal of restriction on bank branching across states, while Hughes, J.P; W. Lang; L.J. Mester; C.G. Moon(1998) concluded that the economic benefits of consolidation are strongest for those banks that engaged in interested expansion, and in particular the expansion that diversifies macroeconomic risk.
From the literature, it has been observed that well-spaced and implemented financial reforms have the ability to boost financial development indicators.
Hughes J.P; Mester, L.J; and Moon, C.G (2000) also provide evidence that scale economies exist in banking but they fail to account for risk. Thus, scale economies that result from consolidation and diversification do not produce better performance in banking, unless choice makes the bank's management more conscious risk and moderates its decisions and actions appropriate larger scale of operation that leads to diversification only reduce liquidity and credit risk under the ceteris bus assumption, and they argued that this is not always the case.
The examination of merger and acquisition in European banking and found that industry consolidation was beneficial (by providing social benefits) in the first economic integration stages, but could damage welfare in the more advanced stages as the few big banks safeguard price agreements to forestall foreign competition. The other side to European mergers and acquisitions was because of the possibility of failure. This, of course, ignores the fact that no bank can ever be too big to fail. All it takes for a bank to fail is for bad news? about a bank to get to its stakeholders (especially depositors) and they all walk in at the same time to take their funds! For such bank to survive, it must have sufficient liquid assets to meet all maturing and long-dated obligations (Igangiya, 2006).
2.2 Role of banks In the Economy
Banks have an important role to play in an economy, as they are intermediaries between people with shortages and surpluses of capital. The products they offer will include savings, lending, investment, mediation and advice, payments, ownership, guarantee and, trust of real estate. (Bouma et al, 2001). This aspect is critical to this research study as the role of banks in any economy cannot be undermined therefore, the need to explore the effectiveness of their actions and how this ultimately affects the economy.
The macroeconomic environment within which firms exist and, operate has an impact upon their activities and governments and other agencies operating at different spatial levels and it can shape behavior and their environment. (Worthington et al, 2001).
According to Bouma et al, (2001), as a financial intermediary between market players, a bank has four important functions:
First it transforms money by scale. The money surpluses of one person are mostly not the same as the shortages of another person.
Banks transform money by duration. Creditors may have short-term surpluses of money, while debtors mostly have a long-term need for money.
Banks transform money by spatial location (place).
Finally, banks act as assessors of risk. As a rule, banks are better equipped to value the risks of various investments than individual investors who have surpluses available. Also, through their larger scale, banks are more able to spread risks.
The major objectives of the banking system are to ensure price stability and facilitate rapid economic development; regrettably, these objectives are still yet to be realised in Nigeria as a result of some infrastructural deficiencies such as basic power, energy, and transportation. Also, the lack of a workable contingency planning framework which provides detailed policy actions to limit crises.
The reforms of the banking industry will have an influence on the functions, as it ultimately shapes the way they handle their operations. The reform of recapitalisation and consolidation could mean a larger platform for banks to better carry out their tasks.
This literature review takes a look at commercial banks in Nigeria when faced with the reformation of the banking industry, core competences needed by the banks to be successful and the effect on the macroeconomic indicators of the country.
2.3 The concept of capital base
The recent call for recapitalization in the banking industry has raised much argument among the bank regulators, promoters and depositors as if shoring up of bank's capital base is a new phenomenon in Nigeria. Historically, the failure of pioneer 1930's and 1940's brought about the enactment of banking ordinance of 1952. Banking ordinance of 1952 prescribed an operating license and emphasized on minimum equity capital for all banks (Omoh, 2007). Since then, raising of bank capital has become the hallmark response policy of the Nigerian monetary authorities.
Capitalization is an important component of reforms in the banking industry, owing to the fact that a bank with a strong capital base has the ability to absorb losses arising from non-performing liabilities (NPL). Attaining capitalization requirement is achieved through consolidation, convergence as well as the capital market. Thus, banking reforms are primarily driven by the need to achieve the objectives of consolidation, competition and convergence. (Deccan Herald,2004), in the financial architecture.
2.4 The Concept of Bank Consolidation
Consolidation is viewed as the reduction in the number of banks and other deposit taking institution with a simultaneous increase in the size and concentration of the consolidation entities in the sector (BIS, 2001:2). It is mostly motivated by technology innovation, deregulation of financial services, enhancing intermediation and increased emphasis on shareholder value, privatization and international competition (Berger et al, 1991).
The process of consolidation has been argued to enhance bank efficiency through cost reduction and revenue in the long run. It also reduces industry's risk by eliminating weaker banks and acquiring the smaller ones by bigger and stronger banks as well as creates opportunities for greater diversification and financial intermediation.
The pattern of banking system consolidation could be viewed in two different perspectives, namely; market-driven and government-led consolidation. The market-driven consolidation which is more pronounced in the developed countries sees consolidation as a way of broadening competitiveness with added comparative advantage in the global context and eliminating excess capacity more efficiently than bankruptcy or other means of exit.
On the other hand, government-led consolidation stems from the need to resolve problem of financial distress in order to avoid systematic crises as well as to restrict inefficient banks (Ajayi, 2005). One of the general effects of consolidation is to the reduction in the number of players, moving the industry more toward an oligopolistic market (Adedipe, 2007).
2.5 Prospect of Bank consolidation In Nigeria
The initial public offering by banks through the capital market when completed is likely to increase the level of financial deepening as evidenced in the upsurge in the volume and value of trading in stock market.
The reform in the banking industry has been able to attract more foreign investment inflow, especially in the area of portfolio investment; this development if sustained will boost the level of economic activity especially toward non oil sector.
The consolidation of banks is likely to attract a significant level of foreign banks entrance into Nigeria which will become a feature in the industry over time. This will bring about more confidence by the international community of the banking sector thereby attracting more foreign investment into the country. As the level of financial intermediation increase, interest rate is likely to fall and increase lending to the real sector that will generate employment and booster growth.
2.6 The Process of Bank consolidation In Nigeria
Before any bank can be said to consolidate through merger and acquisition in the Nigeria industry, it must first seek and obtain the approval of the following regulatory and supervisory authorities in the industry. They include the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) (CBN, 2004).
Chapter 3: Research Methodology
This chapter sets out the method employed in conducting the research. The choice of method was made based on the nature of the research problem.
The purpose of this research is to discover, if any, the impact of bank consolidation on bank performance. Effort would be made to ensure that the methodology and conceptual framework adopted in the research are as relevant to the findings as the concepts and theories of the study. This is because the validity and reliability of conclusions are largely influenced by the research process itself.
3.2 Research Design
This study is a causal or explanatory analysis since it seeks answers to questions related to the causes and determinants of bank performance.
The research adopts a deductive approach. It outlines theories of director relationship to firm performance and draws hypothesis from them. These hypotheses are then tested using empirical social data to either confirm or reject the contentions.
3.3 Quantitative Versus Qualitative Data
A clear distinction must be emphasized between quantitative and qualitative data. The former is concerned with the compilation of the results of research in a standardised mathematical form with the analysis conducted by means of statistics. (Saunders et al, 2003, p.378). Here variables are measured on a selection of scales and can then be arranged in order of arithmetical rigour. Conversely qualitative research is subjective in its approach of examining and reflecting on perceptions of understanding social and human activities (Hussey and Hussey, 1997). Qualitative research is inductive and researchers rarely know the specifics of data analysis when they begin a project (Neuman, 2006). It is concerned with the assemblage of data in a non-standardised, descriptive form, with the examination conducted through the use of theoretical models.
3.4 Data Type
Raw or summarized data which has already been collected and stored for other purposes aside from that of the research in question is referred to as secondary data (Saunders et al, 2007).
This research will make use of multiple-source secondary data collected from bank financial reports and CBN statistical publications available on the CBN, Guaranty trust and zenith banks websites, some paper source of data will also be used. The data/study will be restricted between the period of 2004 and 2006. The year 2004 is the pre-consolidation, 2005 consolidation while 2006 is the post-consolidation periods. The choice of data type is based on accessibility, cost saving and authenticity factors.
The representative sample of the Nigerian banking sector to be used as a sample of the population under study is Guaranty Trust Bank PLC and Zenith Bank PLC.
CAMEL is derived from the five components of a bank's condition which include Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, and Liquidity. Ratings are assigned for each component, and a composite rating is assigned for the overall condition and performance of the bank. These component and composite ratings are assigned on a scale of 1 to 5, with 1 representing the highest rating (strongest performance) and 5 representing the lowest (weakest performance) (Hirtle and Lopez, 1999).
The camel analysis will be used to analyse the performance of banks during the pre-consolidation (2004) and the post-consolidation (2006) periods.
The major difficulty that is likely to be encountered during the course of carrying out this research is the dearth of information, which is usually associated with emerging economies (including the Nigerian economy). Deliberate efforts would therefore be made to obtain information necessary to enhance the quality of the present research.
In summary, the research tries to establish that bank consolidation helps in shoring up investment capital, enhances shareholder value, and protects creditors and depositors as well as strengthening banks capacities to attract funds at lower costs enhancing their liquidity positions.
An efficient banking system tends to be one of the greatest focuses of the Central Bank of Nigeria since its establishment in 1959. Thus, sufficient capital base has largely constituted the Bank's reform policy focus over the years. Hence, it may not be out of place to conclude at this material time that the ongoing reform policy is essential for the attainment of overall macroeconomic stability on a sustainable basis. Accordingly, the Central Bank of Nigeria is admonished to intensify its present efforts geared towards restoration of confidence in the banking system.
The research work analyses published audited accounts of two (2) out of twenty-five (25) banks that emerged from the consolidation exercise and data from the Central Banks of Nigeria (CBN). We denote year 2004 as the pre-consolidation and 2005 and 2006 as post-consolidation periods for our analysis. In doing this, efforts would be made to examine empirically how bank consolidation through recapitalization has affected the performance of Nigerian banks during the period covered by the research. The data for the work are from secondary sources and would be obtained exclusively from the Central Bank of Nigeria and bank publications, both electronic and paper form. CAMEL analysis will be employed to analyse the financial data so as to ascertain the relationship between consolidation and bank performance
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