Relationship Between Developed and Emerging Stock Markets
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Published: Mon, 05 Feb 2018
Due to inclination towards liberalization and deregulation in the capital and money markets, global markets have tended to become highly integrated in recent times in case of developed as well as developing countries. There are many reasons as to why the linkages among the different stock markets should be studied some of the reasons are emerging markets have attracted a great number of foreign investors, removal of statutory controls over their capital market and foreign exchange, stock prices interconnection due to the global capital movements, regional policy and the presence of economic ties.
Specialists of finance have given substantial attention to the linkages and the relationships between different stock markets, to explore and examine the potential benefits from international portfolio diversification. Most of the studies are done taking into account developing and emerging Asian markets. Interest of foreign investors have resulted in several fund management centres concentrating on Asian developing markets not only for the growth and development but also to diversify their risk.
The aim of this paper is to study the relationship of developed and emerging stock markets. Literatures on the different prospects of stock market have been studied. Many researchers have focused on the integration among the stock market. While studying the literatures it has been seen that different areas are being covered and focused which includes dynamic linkages among stock market during pre and post Asian financial crisis and Russian financial crisis, effect of linkages on the portfolio diversification, effects of linkages on the daily stock prices and domination of developed markets over the developing markets. Further, examining of the empirical question in the literature on capital market integration between different economies is done.
For the empirical analysis, data of twenty year for everyday closing stock prices of six indices have been taken from 3 January 1989 to 8 June 2009. Six indices are New York Stock Exchange (USA), London Stock Exchange (UK), Tokyo Stock Exchange (Japan), Bombay Stock Exchange (India), The Stock Exchange of Thailand (Thailand), Bursa Malaysia (Malaysia). In the econometrics literature, there exist a number of alternative methods to estimate cointegration. Econometrics techniques which are being used in this study are Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Johansen’s cointegration test and Error Correction test. E-views software is used for the calculating the results. Empirical results obtained from the three test, it was found that time series are non stationary and null hypothesis is not rejected which suggest that they are highly cointegrated and to test whether any variations in one stock exchange can lead to fluctuations in other stock indices. Johansen cointegration test is conducted which shows that there is no evidence of cointegration between Indian stock index and other stock indices.
Further, Error Correction test is conducted which shows that there is poor cointegration between Indian stock exchange index with other stock indices. Indian stock market appear to be least integrated with Malaysia, where as Malaysia stock market is integrated with all the other stock markets. Thailand stock market is seems to be more dependent on Japanese and Indian stock market than other stock markets. Little integration is seen between Japanese stock exchange and USA stock exchange. It is found that UK and USA are highly integrated. To conclude, stock exchanges of the developed economies are better cointegrated as compared to those of developing economies.
What is stock market?
In simple words stock refers to a supply. But in financial market terms, stock refers to the money which a company has raised. And the supply of the money comes from the people who invest in the company in hope that the company will make their money grow. Stocks exist because it enables the company to “sell” pieces of the business called as stocks (equity securities) in need of long term financing. When stocks are issued by corporations are owned by the public at large which includes both private investors and institution are said to be publicly held.
A public place where things are bought and sold is called as Market. And the term stock market refers to a business where stock is bought and sold. Stock market can be splitted into two main sectors; the primary market and the secondary market. The primary market is the one where new issues are offered for the first time and primary market is the one where subsequent trading goes on. There are basically two types of stock namely common stock and preferred stock.
A security which represents ownership in a corporation is known as common stock. Holder of the common stock has the power to vote and elect board members. If the company goes bankrupt, the common stockholder will not be paid until unless creditors, bondholders and preferred stockholders are paid their share of the leftover assets of the company. Where as, preferred stock is a stock which is issued when all the common stock has been issued. Preferred stock olders are given dividends. They have a preference that is why they are paid dividend before any dividends are paid to common stock holders.
The stock market is not a specific place but still some people use the term “Wall Street” which is the main street in New York City’s financial district and it is referred to the US stock market.
Why companies issue stock market and why people buy it?
As every company wants to grow, so some owners build more factories and some develop new product which needs money. A company can actually get loan from the financial institution like banks but companies without going into debt by taking loans issues stock which raise money for the growth of a company. Only Business Corporation can issue the stock which has special legal rights and responsibility. A proprietorship or ownership cannot issue stock.
A shareholder invests in a hope that company will grow and so will their money grow because if a company earns money, the shareholders will share the profits. There are different types of gains from the stock such as dividends, capital gains, short selling, risk and rewards for investing. Over the long term bases, investments in stocks have proven to be an excellent way to more than keep pace with erosive effects of inflation.
Stock market is an organised market for trading of stocks and bonds. These markets were originally open to all but now a days only members of the association can buy and sell directly and these members or stock broker can buy and sell for themselves or others by charging the commission for their provided service. A stock can only be bought and sold if it is listed on an exchange. There are stock exchange in all the financial centres of the world. Some of them are stated below; the New York stock exchange since 1792 which had the largest trading in the world of $7.3 trillion in 1998, Tokyo stock exchange, London stock exchange, Bombay stock exchange and NASDAQ. NASDAQ was the first exchange which recognised the role of electronics in stock market.
History of the Stock Exchanges
In the decade of 1870s, introduction of a securities system initiated the public bond negotiation in Japan which resulted in the need of a public institution for trading and hence in May 1878, the “Stock Exchange Ordinance” was in enacted followed by establishment of Tokyo Stock Exchange Co. Ltd. On May 15, 1879 and trading began on June 1st.
On June 30, 1943, establishment of a quasi-public corporation named the “Japan Securities Exchange” took place by uniting all 11 stock exchanges throughout Japan. During the Second World War, the trading sessions were suspended on August 10, 1945 but the trading restarted under the management of unofficial group transactions in December 1945. Japan Securities Exchange was dissolved on April 16, 1947. Three stock exchanges in Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya were founded on April 1, 1949 and trading began on May 16 followed by formation of five additional stock exchanges in July in Kobe (dissolved, October 1967), Hiroshima, Kyoto (merged into Tokyo Stock Exchange, March 2001), Fukuoka and Niigata.
In the beginning of the next decade of 1950s, margin transactions were introduced and bond trading started on April 2, 1956. October 1, 1966 observed the first listings of government bonds after the Second World War and in the following year, a new process of auction was put into action and “Baikai” trades (off-exchange trades) were eliminated. In April 1968, registration system was replaced by licensing system for securities companies and on July 1, 1969, Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) was launched. Joining the International Federation of Stock Exchanges (FIBV) along with starting of convertible bonds trading and Book Entry Clearing system were the major developments by TSE before listing of Yen-based foreign bonds and opening of Foreign Stock Section in 1973.
The next 10 years observed major developments in technical fields such as introduction of Market Information System (MIS) and Computer-assisted Order Routing and Execution System (CORES). From February 1, 1986 to May 23, 1988, a total of 32 securities companies joined the TSE membership out of which 22 were foreign companies. Trading in TOPIX futures, TOPIX options, U.S. T-Bond futures and Japanese government bond futures began by May 1990. Other 10 securities companies including 3 foreign ones joined the TSE membership followed by introduction of Floor Order Routing and Execution System (FORES) by the end of that year.
Major happenings in the next decade were:
Starting of Central Depository and Clearing System on Oct 9, 1991;
Listing of Nikkei 300 Stock Index Listed Fund on May 29, 1995;
Initiation of 5-year Japanese government bond futures trading on Feb 16, 1996;
Trading in equity options on July 18, 1997;
Calculation of new stock price index series on Apr 2, 1998; introduction of ToSTNet and TDnet (Timely Disclosure Network) in 1998; restriction on off-exchange trading for listed securities abolished on Dec 1, 1998;
50th Anniversary celebrations on Apr 2, 1999; introduction of Target (TSE wide area network) on June 1; brokerage commission liberalized in October; establishment of MOTHERS market for emerging companies and growth on Nov 11, 1999;
and merging of Hiroshima and Niigata stock exchanges into TSE along with introduction of TSE ARROWS in 2000.
Demutualization of TSE resulted in the formation of Tokyo Stock Exchange Inc. in 2001 and later on August 1, 2007, Tokyo Stock Exchange Group, Inc. was established. Tokyo Stock Exchange Regulation was established on October 17th with its commencement on November 1, 2007.
The present Thai market’s origin starts from the early years of 1960s when a private group established a stock exchange in July 1962 as a limited partnership which later turned into a limited company under the name of Bangkok Stock Exchange Co. Ltd. (BSE) in 1963. But BSE was relatively inactive irrespective of its good foundation as its annual turnover values reduced from being 160 million baht in 1968 to an all time low of 26 million baht in 1972, even when turnover in debentures were 87 million baht.
So finally, BSE stopped operating in early 1970s and the major reasons behind its failure were limited understanding of equity market among the investors and no government support officially. But, BSE’s concept was able to attract enough attention to form an organized securities market with official support. Hence, a plan to establish a market having apt facilities and regulations for securities trading was proposed by the Second National Economic and Social Development Plan (1967-1971). On recommendation of the World Bank in 1969, the government gained the works of Professor Sidney M. Robbins from Columbia University who studied different methods for the development of Thai capital market. And in the same year, the Bank of Thailand also created a working group for the development of capital market which was given the job of establishing the stock market.
After a year of intensive study, Professor Robbins generated an all-inclusive report named “A Capital Market in Thailand” and this report turned out to be the master plan required for the Thai capital market development in future. In 1972, the government brought some changes to the “Announcement of the Executive Council No. 58 on the Control of Commercial Undertakings Affecting Public Safety and Welfare” according to which the government now controlled and regulated the operations related to finance and securities companies. “The Securities Exchange of Thailand” also known as SET was passed in May 1974 after the amendments were made followed by the amending of the Revenue Code by the year-end. By 1975, the legislative framework was put into action and official trading at SET started on April 30, 1975. January 1, 1991 saw the changing of name from “The Securities Exchange of Thailand” to “The Stock Exchange of Thailand”.
In 1930, Singapore Stockbrokers’ Association was Malaysia’s first formal securities business organisation establishment and in 1937 was re-registered by the name of Malayan Stockbrokers’ Association. The public shares trading began after the establishment of The Malayan Stock Exchange in 1960 and the board system was having its trading rooms in Kuala Lumpur as well as Singapore, connected by usage of direct telephone line. The year 1964 saw the foundation of the Stock Exchange of Malaysia but in 1965, the withdrawal of Singapore from Malaysia forced the Stock Exchange of Malaysia to become the Stock Exchange of Malaysia and Singapore.
In 1973, the Stock Exchange of Malaysia and Singapore was divided into two separate markets namely the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad and the Stock Exchange of Singapore due to ceasing of interchangeability of currency between Malaysia and Singapore. The Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange integrated on December 14, 1976 as a company limited by guarantee took over the operations and management of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange Berhad. On April 14, 2004, the demutualization exercise made the name to be changed to Bursa Malaysia Berhad. The main aim of this exercise was to boost competitive position and to act in response to trends in the exchange sector globally by becoming more market-oriented and customer-driven.
The listing of Bursa Malaysia on the Main Board of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad took place on 18 March 2005. The certifications for conformance to the ISO 9001:2000 Quality Management System and ISO 14001:2004 Environmental Management System standards were received by the exchange on 5 October 2007. Faster processing and execution of orders and providing wider trading functions and features were done by introduction of Bursa Trade Securities as a new trading platform in Dec 2008.
The New York stock exchange trace back to 172, when twenty four New York City stock brokers and merchants signed the Buttonwood Agreement. At that time five securities were traded in New York City out of which three were government bonds and two were bank stocks. It was agreed that securities will be traded on commission basis on signing the Buttonwood agreement by the brokers. After the war in 1815 securities market in New York began to grow. The New York stock and exchange board was formed on March 8, 1817.
The name was shortened The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 1863. More than 2800 companies are listed in NYSE which are having value exceeding $15 trillion. During the period 1824 to 1830 annual trading reached a peak of 380,000 shares. Average volume reached to 8500 shares which show that it increased a 50-fold in seven years. During 1836-1853 NYS&EB prohibited trading in the street and in 1837 average daily volume fell down from 7393 in January to 1534 by June. Due to invention of telegraph, brokers and investors broaden the market participation outside New York City.
It was a panic period during 1857 when Ohio Life Insurance & Trust company collapsed, prices dropped eight to ten percent in the single trading session and there was 45% decline in market value in the beginning of the year. During 1860s first stock ticker came into existence, membership in NYSE became a “property right”, prohibition of issue of shares in secret known as watering stock and at the end on 24th September 1869, gold speculation resulted in “Black Friday”. In 1890s NYSE established clearing house, it also recommended that all listed companies will send their shareholder the annual report and in 1896.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was published by the Wall Street journal for the first time, with an initial value of 40.74. During that period DJIA topped 100 for the first time. Federal Reserve System Wall Street became world financial leader. Centralized stock clearing system was established and fraud bureau was established during the period. In the mid of 1929 Black Thursday came when market crashed on volume of over 16 million shares which was the beginning of the Great depression and the Dow finally reached bottom in July 1932. During 1960-1979, International Federation of stock Exchange and daily volume on the NYSE exceeded 4 million shares nearly triple the level immediately following the war. On February 03, 1977 foreign broker were permitted membership on the floor. The Inter market Trading system (ITS) was inaugurated.
Taking about 20th century, first Global index was launched in 2000, DJIA experienced its largest one day point gain and new trading room at 30 Broad street was opened. In 2001, NYSE volume topped 2 billion shares. The NYSE is now a for-profit business. It is formed out of the merger of the NYSE and Archipelago Holding, Inc. And the merger is the largest ever among securities up to this time.
The London Stock Exchange is one of the world’s oldest stock exchanges and traces its history back more than 300 years. It started in the 17th century in London coffee houses. Exchange grew quickly and became the city’s most important financial institution. John casting began in back 1698 to organise the market in Jonathan’s coffee house through a simple list of stock and commodity prices. The wave of speculative fever known as the south sea bubble burst in 1720. In 1761 a group of stock broker form a club at Jonathan’s to buy and sell shares and then in 1773 they put up their own building in Sweeting’s Alley with dealing room and members named it “The Stock Exchange”.
On 3 March 1801, first regulated exchange comes into existence in London and the business reopens under a formal membership basis and the modern stock exchange was born. First codified rule book was created in 1812 and first regional exchange were opened in Manchester and Liverpool in 1836 and it was rebuilt in 1854. A new deed settlement came to existence in 1876. In 1914 after Great War, the exchange market was closed from the end of July till the New Year. During 1986, there was deregulation of market which is known as ‘Big Bang’. Ownership of member firms by an outside corporation was allowed.
Brokers were able to operate in a dual capacity and minimum scales of commission were abolished. Trading was moved to computers and telephones from separate dealing rooms. The exchange became private limited company under the Companies Act 1985. The trading name became “The London Stock Exchange” in 1991. In 1997, SETS (Stock exchange Electronic Trading System) was launched. In 2003, EDX London was created, a new international equity in partnership with OM Group and later in 2004, LSE moved to new headquarters Paternoster Square. Latest in 2007, LSE merged with Borsa Italiana, creating London Stock Exchange Group.
The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) is located in Dalal Street, Mumbai. It was established in 1875 and is one of the oldest stock exchanges in Asia. Around 3600 companies in the country are listed on this stock exchange and have a substantial trading volume. The market capitalization of the BSE is about Rs.20 trillion (US$ 466 billion). The ‘Sensex’ is commonly used market index for the BSE and it is among the five big exchanges in the world in terms of number of transactions.
Its history traces back to the time in mid 1850s, when an informal group of 22 shareholders used to trade under banyan tree in the Town Hall of Bombay. The association the native sharebrokers was formally organized as The Bombay Stock Exchange in 1875. The BSE is the oldest stock exchange in Asia and Premchand Roychand used to be the leading sharebroker in that time.
He was the one who assisted in setting out procedures and conventions for the trading of stock at BSE. James M. Maclean inaugurated the Brokers Hall in 1899. in 1928, it was shifted to an old building in Town Hall, Bombay and later on the building was constructed on Dalal Street in 1930 where the BSE building now stands. The BSE follows the system of eTrading, which came into use in 1995. In 2000, BSE Sensex was used to open its derivatives market for trading Sensex future contracts, followed by development of equity derivatives in 2001 and 2002 which expanded its trading platform.
Stock exchanges by providing a centralized and ready market, facilitates the business for financing through flotation of bonds and stocks. Sometimes speculation in stock can put stress on the instability of an economy. The reality of the Great depression was emphasised by the stock market crash in 1929.
Stock market crash of 1929
After the First World War, there was a growth in industrialisation and new technologies. During 1920s was the time of peace and prosperity because the economy was benefited greatly from the new life changing technologies.
Many investors quickly purchased the shares on seeing Dow Jones industrial average surged. Due to the powerful economic boom the stocks were seen very safe to most of the economists. Stocks were purchased by the investors on margin. From 1921 to 1929, the Dow Jones rocketed from 60 to 400 and for every dollar invested; a margin user would borrow 9 dollars worth of stock.
But on Thursday October 24, 1929 the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 38 points to 260, which was a drop of 12.8 percent and across the two days its average fell 23 percent and finally at the end of the period on November 11, there was a cumulative drop of 40 percent. Overvalued stocks, low margin requirements, interest rate hikes and poor banking structure were the few causes of the crash. In total, 14 billion dollars of wealth were lost during this market crash.
Stock market crash of 1987
Dow hit a record 2722.44 points on 25 August, 1987 but then the Dow started to head down. And valuation in the United States dropped around 36 percent from the days between October 14 to October 19, 1987. On black Monday October 19, 1987 the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 508 points losing approx 22.6 percent of its total value and S&P 500 dropped to 20.4 percent. Reasons for the crash were no liquidity, overvalued stock, program trading and the use of derivative securities software. During the crash half trillion dollars wealth were lost.
Stock market crash of 2008
The failures of financial organizations in the USA due to exposure of credit default swaps and subprime loans resulted in a global crisis as banks all over the world failed and the values of shares and commodities fell drastically. The Indonesian Stock Market stopped operating on seeing a 10% drop in a day on October 8. Comparisons were made of this crisis with the one in 1987 but that lasted for just one day whereas the present one lingered on for the whole week. Dow Jones saw its worst ever decline of 18% during the week commenced on October 6.
The failure of banks in Iceland devalued the Icelandic Krona and forced the country to the verge of bankruptcy which was saved by an emergency loan from International Monetary Fund (IMF). The main index of Iceland had a 77% decrement. October 24 saw the worst downfalls for many countries whereas Dow Jones industrial average was somewhat better at 3.6%. The value of United States Dollar and Japanese Yen increased whereas that of British Pound and Canadian Dollar was among the major losers.
The competition among different industrial countries’ markets was witnessed by their respective national stock exchange markets during the late 1980s and the economists observed that linkage or interrelation between the global markets existed. Due to the less restrictive climate towards capital movements, economists actually started thinking that the major financial markets of the world are systematically interrelated. Growth can be seen in reaction towards external developments in macro-economic policies and the world financial environment due to this interrelation.
Technological developments in communications, trading system and the innovations of financial products have created global international investment opportunities. Linkages among stock market have important implication and significance for security pricing, trading strategies, hedging and financial market regulations. And also the presence of short term and long term relationship may be used to attain financial gains from international portfolio diversification and to also reduce systematic risk. International Market linkages have been widely investigated.
Several studies have been conducted explaining the empirical and theoretical issues on linkages amongst stock market and mainly focused on the co-movement between developed and emerging markets. There is a wealth of literature on stock market interdependence and integration. However, depending on the data, methodology, and theoretical models used there is no clear resolution of the issue yet. Some previous work has have found that international stock markets are integrated and some found that stock markets are not interlinked.
Most of the studies on stock market interdependence in emerging markets have been done on geographical groups of markets, such as markets in Central and Eastern Europe and America and in Asian countries. Further, I summarize some of the most recent findings.
1.2 Interdependence of Stock Markets
A number of studies have examined stock market linkages among emerging stock market and the developed stock markets like Arshanapalli, Doukas and Lang 1995 and Chen, Firth and Rui, 2002. Arshanapalli, Doukas and Lang (1995) report that after the 1987 crash international market linkages have strengthened in terms of increased number of co-integrating vectors in the post crash period. They investigated in their paper that presence of a common random variable trend between the US and Asian stock market movements during the post October 1987 period. They showed that the cointergating structure which actually ties the stock market together has significantly increased since October 1987.
US stock market influence on the other markets was considerably found greater in the post crisis period. Their results indicate that the Asian equity market is more integrated with US equity market than Japan equity market. Where as, Masih and Masih (1997) and Masih and Masih (1999) found cointegration relationship among the equity markets of Malaysia, Thailand, US, UK, Japan, Singapore and Hong-Kong during pre-financial crises period 1987. Number of papers investigates the short term and long term linkages among Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) stock exchanges. Talking about long term relationship, Gilmore and McManus (2002) and Gilmore and McManus (2003) analysed that no long term relationship can be established among the CEE stock markets with the US and Germany stock markets, where as Voronkova (2004) shows the existence of long term linkages among the Central European markets and CEE.
Hamao and Masulis (1990), King and Wadhwani (1990), Kasa (1992) and Arshanapalli and Doukas (1993) have found that the equity markets of developed markets are integrated and US equity market leads the other developed market like Japanese equity market, UK equity market and few other European equity markets. Yang, Hsiao, Li and Wang (2005) also examined the long run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among USA, Germany and four Eastern European emerging stock markets. They paid particular attention to Russian crisis in their study. VAR analysis was conducted.
It was concluded that both long run relationship and the dynamic transmission were strengthen among these markets after the crisis and Germany became dominant and noticeable only after the Russian crisis amongst all the Eastern European markets. Syllignakis and Kouretas also examined the short and long term relationship between ten central Eastern European stock markets and two developed stock market i.e US and Germany, they used Gowzalo and Granger method and indicated weak partial integration among these markets. They also indicated that the four big stock exchange market like Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia together with Germany and the US stock market have substantial permanent factor which drives the system of stock market exchange in the long run.
Egert and Kocenda (2006) analyse the co-movement and interdependence among three stock markets in Western, Central and Eastern Europe and found no robust cointegration relationship for any of the stock index pairs. Data from 2003 to 2005 for stock indices have been taken and applied wide range of econometric techniques like unit root and stationary tests, cointergration tests, Granger causality test, VAR estimation have been used. Results show that there are signs of short term spillover effects both in terms of stock price and stock return volatility. Granger causality test show the existence of bidirectional causality for both returns and volatility series and limited number of short term relationships using VAR framework.
Limited interaction has been found among the market in case of Poland and Hungary by Li and Majerowska (2007) and also showed that emerging markets are weekly linked to the developed markets by using GARCH approach .In this paper linkages between the emerging markets of Warsaw and Budapest with the established market in Frankfurt and US were studied by using four-variable asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model. At the end it was implied that by adding the stock in the emerging markets to their investment portfolio they may benefit from reducing the risk.
Further, looking at some more European counties Lucey andVoronkova (2008) examined relationship Russia and other equity markets over the period of 1995-2004 by using number of co-integration approach like Gregory-Hansen test, a stochastic cointegration framework, the non-parametric test for unit root and cointegration and found Russian market does not show strong evidence of increased long run convergence either with regional or developed markets, so therefore correlation is low. They also stated that Russian equity market in the long run was isolated from the influence of international markets and structural break in August 1998 did not alter the long term relationship nature.
Ozdemir, Olgun and Saracoglu (2008) examined dynamic linkages between the equity market of US representing the center and emerging market using the Granger causality test as a result showed significant causal relation to all emerging markets and conclude that there is no evidence in the literature suggesting an effect of an emerging stock exchange market to that of large markets like US, Japan and UK.
Where as Chinzara, examined to what extent South Africa equity market is integrated into world equity market using cointegration, VECM and VAR model and taking data for period 1995-2007. He fi
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