Question Cameron Law

Who is going to win the US presidential election - Clinton or Trump?

Who is going to win the US presidential election - Clinton or Trump?

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Answer Internal Staff

Who is going to win the US presidential election - Clinton or Trump?

Today, the US public (and electoral college) will make one of the most momentous decisions in modern history. Whether to place Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump in the position of President of the United States. This answer feels it safe to assume that third party candidates such as Gary Johnson or Jill Stein do not have adequate support to make considering their candidacy a realistic discussion point.

To begin this answer, it is important to highlight that a prediction of this magnitude is only remotely possible when a vast array of factors are considered. Some of which are going to be discussed below.

Who is leading in the polls?

According to RealClearPolitics (2016), a website which combines a large variety and number of theoretical polls to provide their average, Clinton currently stands in the lead with a 3.3 point advantage. Trusting theoretical polls without question however, is simply a bad idea. The recent Brexit decision in the UK emphasised this, as the poll average suggested that Britain would vote to remain in the EU with a 2 point advantage (Financial Times, 2016).

Can the polls be trusted?

Excluding the potential inaccuracy of polls caused by extraneous factors such as the polled demographic, a number of Trump supporters, including Trump himself, have accused the media of projecting bias to influence the election in Clinton’s favour (Jennifer Harper, 2016). Whether this is entirely true relies on your perception of what you believe to be accurate coverage. Trump has often made outrageous statements, the intimations of which are indisputably offensive (Ben Jacobs, 2016). In contrast, a large portion of the media have failed to acknowledge Clinton’s flaws, namely issues such as the recent email controversy (Michael Sainato, 2016).

So who is going to win?

The simple answer is, we cannot know until the polls are tallied. All the information that currently surrounds whether or not a particular candidate is going to win is subject to innumerate criticism, which means speculation is almost futile. Further, Trump has even stated that unlike previous presidential candidates before him, he may not accept the result of the election (Patrick Healy, 2016).

Essentially, with both parties having faults and the polls being subject to massive criticism, the only safe way to determine who has won is to wait until the results are in and consider what the parties have to say in response.

References

Ben Jacobs and Sabrina Siddiqui (October 8, 2016) Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/oct/07/donald-trump-leaked-recording-women (Accessed: 8 November 2016).

Financial Times (23 June, 2016) Available at: https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/ (Accessed: 8 November 2016).

Jennifer Harper (October 20, 2016) Available at: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/oct/20/voters-agree-media-biased-against-donald-trump/ (Accessed: 8 November 2016).

Michael Sainato (7 November, 2016) Available at: http://observer.com/2016/11/latest-wikileaks-reveals-clinton-critics-were-right-all-along/ (Accessed: 8 November 2016).

Patrick Healy and Jonathan Martin (19 October, 2016) Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/20/us/politics/presidential-debate.html?_r=0 (Accessed: 8 November 2016).

RealClearPolitics (no date) Available at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html- 3.3 (Accessed: 8 November 2016).