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Disaster Risk

Abstract

This paper deals with the many analytical techniques used to help disaster planners and managers prepare for a disaster. From modeling to information technology, the many analytical techniques can give a better idea of what to do in the event of a catastrophe. This paper will discuss those analytical areas and how they affect the mitigation process

List and thoroughly discuss and differentiate between the analytical techniques in Chapter 3, that aid in understanding and ultimately mitigating and preparing for disasters.

Understanding, preparing for, and predicting disasters is not an easy task. Although as learned in the previous weeks reading and presentation, predicting a disaster can be done to some extent. After all, it is known the time of year storms hit in certain parts of the country, what parts of the country are more prone to earthquakes, and which areas have a higher potential for industrial disasters (like nuclear power plants). Chapter three of the reading this week delves into the many different analytical techniques that are used to aid in the preparation of disasters. Each has their own differences although all of them have the same end goal: being ready for when a catastrophe strikes. The analytical techniques discussed in the chapter and spelled out in the paper are: modeling; risk analysis; loss estimation; resource analysis and inventory; general and organizational systems analysis; field exercises; and use of information technology.

Modeling is the first type of analytical technique looked at. Models can be used for basically any type of disaster whether it be natural, accidental, or terrorist. Whether one calls it risk modeling, disaster modeling, or catastrophe modeling, the books simply defines it by simply stating, “Models simplify reality in order to render it comprehensible.” (Alexander, 2002, p. 41) A successful model should make reality as simple as possible without losing its reliability thus making it a balancing act on how much detail to put into the model and how much to leave out. The most basic type of model is the black-box model in which no details are put in, only inputs with outputs. A larger portion of models are grey box models as they tend to have some amount of detail that is cautiously selected. Another type of modeling is when they are subject to sensitivity analysis. Here, the variables input into the model are subject to controlled variances allowing a person to study out the output variable react to the said changes. However, if bad information is put in, bad information will be put out. It is important that when using modeling careful notes are taken to make sure correct variable are being used. Basically, there should be a great deal of information gathering done to assure better results as stated by Robert Muir-Wood, technical director of Risk Management Solutions, "It's actually quite easy to build a model. The question at the end of it is, are the results meaningful and are they accurate? To check that, you need to do an enormous exercise of calibration." (Bowers, 2000)

Building a scenario is another aspect of modeling. Basically asking the “What if” question and building that scenario out of a set of conditions and circumstances illustrating the connection between the two. Using a scenario can assist in showing disasters from all angles such as the consequences of a catastrophe; mitigation decisions; and strategies used in a post disaster atmosphere. It is also important that these scenarios be as accurate to the real thing as possible because as stated earlier, if bad information is put into the scenario (i.e. model), then that bad information will result in a bad scenario. There are more and more companies getting involved with doing research using scenarios and adding that to part of their company as a whole like Haestad Methods. They have added what is called a Scenario Control Center. This provides a consolidated data management environment for managing "what-if" situations in the distribution network and maintaining a paper trail of design and operational changes to the system -- without leaving the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment which enables engineers to avoid inefficiencies that the GIS data repository would otherwise present and leads the way to much more effective modeling and decision support. (Unknown, 2002) An addendum to scenarios is game simulation whereas chance plays a greater role in the scenario and its outcome. This is not as widely used although it is becoming easier to do game simulation and let a computer play the “game” to develop the scenario outcomes.

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The next type of modeling is risk analysis. Risk can be broken down into the overlapping factors of: the hazard or danger that something will occur; the vulnerability of that which is threatened like people or structures; and the amount of exposure that those people and structures are susceptible to. There are those risks that are involuntary like earthquakes and voluntary like jumping out of a perfectly good airplane with a parachute on your back. An example of risk analysis would be an empty building in an area of the country like Florida that is prone to the possibility of getting hit by a hurricane. Although the owner of that particular building would like to have it protected to some extent, the risk posed would be higher if that empty building now housed something that is of great importance to the federal government like an FBI headquarters or some other governmental agency. Instead of an empty building it could also be a hospital or other important structure. So assessing the risk on something has a great deal of variables to consider. Again, scenarios can play an important factor in risk analysis. There has also been software produced called RAMPART that was developed by Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico which uses risk analysis in building management. This was designed to potentially aid the General Services Administration (GSA) to help assess the risks of terrorism, natural disasters and crime to the nearly 8,000 federal buildings it manages nationwide. (Advanced Materials & Composites News, 2001)

Loss estimation is a very important part of emergency planning. It is important to have some type of scope of what may happen if a disaster occurs. This is especially important when it comes to injured/dead people and determining what to do or where to take them. This leads into how emergency personnel (like first responders) can be used in the destruction area. Loss is normally evaluated in three different ways: casualties, structural damage, and economic. The first two have a direct impact on the third. If there is a loss of life or injuries and buildings are damaged, the more likelihood of economic loss. Although in some cases, there is a short economic boom in the rebuilding effort. In some areas of the country (like California), buildings are supposed to be up to code if built by a certain time. Loss can be estimated in this case because it is known that if building “X” is supposed to be able to withstand an earthquake measuring “Y” on the Richter Scale, the damage will be minimal. Anything on the scale above “Y”, would cause more damage and the possibility of more bodily harm depending on the type of building. Since the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002 was passed as a direct result of September 11^th, insurance companies have had to evaluate loss due to terrorist activities more closely. One such company, AIR Worldwide Corporation, is assisting in this. They have developed loss estimates that take into account a wide variety of terrorist organizations (not only Al Qaeda), the weapons likely to be used by each group on each target, and the likelihood of attack on more than 300,000 potential targets, including a subset of high-profile "trophy" targets that correspond to a higher probability of attack. (Business Wire, 2002) The calculated potential loss for this makes it easier for companies to price the terrorist coverage.

Next is resource analysis and inventory. Knowing what resources are available to a planner and how the work can help that planner run a more efficient operation after an emergency. The planner should know how to allocate those resources and supplement them accordingly. A series of charts and checklists are essential to keep an accurate account of all the resources. A checklist should be kept that has an example of a hazard and a description of that hazard. All the characteristics of the disaster should be listed from the probability of it occurring to warning systems and preparedness measures. There should be an accurate assessment of relief supplies, people who can be contacted to bring in more emergency workers, what kind of transportation is available, and communications database so information can be disseminated in a timely accurate manner. As calling up additional personnel would be important in a relief effort, having “call-up” procedures in place is vital. This way it is known before hand who to call and when to call them. The resources and inventory should also be audited from time to time to make sure that all supplies are up-to-date and make any changes necessary as situations change.

The next analytical technique is general and organizational systems analysis. This is a form of modeling that simplifies reality and helps make complex situations more understandable. These systems help show input-output relationships (black-box analysis) or the way they work on the inside (grey-box analysis). The book states that most functional entities are open systems. If they are physical systems, this means that they exchange mass and energy with their surrounding environment; if they are social systems it means that they exchange information and personnel. (Alexander, 2002, p. 85) The systems approach has value due to the fact that it can be applied in similar ways to physical and social systems building a common structure connecting the two. It also helps formulate boundaries and break-down subsystems if they get too complex. It is also flexible as it can be applied during various stages of the emergency planning process.

When writing an emergency plan, field exercises are an important aspect to add in. These exercises are vital in providing information on how the plan will work in the event of an emergency. These are simulated exercises that put the emergency community in a “real life” emergency situation. These types of exercises are used throughout the country to test an emergency plan. No place is too big or too small to run field exercises. Madison, Wisconsin ran an exercise involving a hi-jacked airplane on its way to Washington, D.C. Federal regulations require the airport to have a full-scale exercise every three years. This “emergency” used about 200 emergency, law enforcement and facilities personnel from 40 agencies converged on the scene of the make-believe hijacking on Runway 21 at the airport, practicing their disaster training in a full-scale emergency. (Novak, 2005) There are several different types of emergencies that can be simulated in a field exercise like evacuation of schools and hospitals, natural disasters, chemical leaks, etc. During these exercises mistakes can happen and it is ok if they happen during an exercise but they should be worked out in the event of an actual emergency.

Lastly, there is the use of information technology (IT). Information is essential in mitigating disasters as the amount of information, its accuracy, and how it is disseminated play a key role in the outcome of a disaster. With IT, more and more information is available, not only to the planners but to the general public as well. Unfortunately in some instances rumors can be spread about a particular disaster that isn’t true and they can be instantly read around the world in someone’s web log. Another issue that may arise is what to do if the technology fails. Will there be sufficient back-up systems in place to carry on? Since IT moves at such a rapid pace, they become outdated much quicker and something much better comes along. If the new system is not compatible with the old, then a new one would have to be acquired incurring more cost. As part of IT, the Internet is a tremendous tool assisting planners and managers. The World Wide Web can be used in many ways including gathering information and getting information to the general public. Products can also be bought and sold over the Internet that can not only assist planners but the general public as well. However, the Internet is not the only way that IT can be used. As mentioned before, software can be developed to assist in all aspects of emergency planning. They can help run scenarios, exercises, calculate probabilities, the possibilities with computers is almost limitless.

References

Advanced Materials & Composites News. (2001, August 6). TOOL AGAINST TERRORISM AND OTHER DISASTERS Sandia to Release First Risk-Based Approach to Building Management Software for Use by GSA. Retrieved 2001, from The Gale Group: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-77012124.html.
Alexander, D. (2002). Principles of Emergency Planning and Management. University of Massachusetts, amherst: Oxford University Press.
Alexander, D. (2002). Principles of Emergency Planning and Management. University of Massachusetts, amherst: Oxford University Press.
Bowers, B. (2000, July 1). One Step Ahead of Disaster.(catastrophe modeling). Retrieved July 7, 2007, from Best's Review: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-63823910.html.
Business Wire. (2002, November 21). Terrorism Risk Insurance Act Poses New Underwriting Challenges for Insurers. (Business Editors). Retrieved July 7, 2007, from Business Wire: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-94503711.html.
Novak, B. (2005, June 16). MASSIVE DISASTER EXERCISE CREWS RESPOND TO HIJACKING `EMERGENCY' AT DANE COUNTY'S AIRPORT.(METRO). Retrieved July 7, 2007, from The Capital Times: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-133329420.html.
Unknown. (2002, August 26). Haestad Methods Announces Scenario Control Center(TM) for WaterGEMS(TM); - Scenario Control Center Delivers 'What If?' Modeling to the GIS Environment. Retrieved July 7, 2007, from PR Newswire: http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-90834271.html.

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