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Determinants Of Gold Prices Finance Essay

What are the factors cause the price of gold to change? Based on the research from the World Gold Council Document, it exhibits that the gold price is determined by two sets of the factors which are “supply” and “macro-economic factors”. It is indirectly correlation between supply and price of gold. According to World Gold Council Document’s economic study, the available supply of gold in the market is made up of three major “above-ground sources.” First, reclaimed scrap or gold reclaimed from jewellery and other industries such as electronic and dentistry; Second, official, or central bank, sales; Third, gold loan made to the market from official gold reserves for borrowing and lending purposes. However, US dollar is also negative relationship with the price of gold in term of the macro-economic factors, when inflation and gold tend to move in tandem with each other. Indeed, higher real interest rates are generally negative factors for gold.

No one could deny that the value of the gold is very hard to determine because there is no underlying cash flow. [2] According to private investors Mr. Adam Katz, he has done studies about applying the P/E concept to Gold. He looked at the money supply to determine the future gold price. He has used the TMS model which is M1, M2, MZM, or True Money Supply to indicate the relationship between the money supply and the factors of gold price. Based on the analysis from Mr. Adam Ktaz, gold is the leading indicator for money supply; not the other way around.

In 1980’s, the True Money supply grew higher the value of gold price. If the premium of gold price higher than TMS as result of the increase money supply in future. This also intervenes that increase in the money supply could arise without gold requirement increasing in value. Besides that, price of gold could be increased if the demand of gold shock increases. From the advice by Mr. Adam Ktaz, investors should find a best alternative approach to play the rising money supply. Treasuries and real estate have external risks outside of the money supply. Apart from that, Federal could reduce the excess liquidity. Therefore, gold can move significantly lower as expectations of money supply increase diminish.

Let proceed further pertaining to the relationship between gold and money supply. [3] There is evidence that the gold is an asset that has low correlation to most financial assets, both in expansionary and recessionary periods. This could be explained by the behavior of gold over the short-run or long-run. In a global context, effect of the money supply could influence on the performance of gold. For instance, there is an inversely relationship between dollar and the gold. It is shown that the gold is a better asset to invest than other assets like stocks and the bonds in times when inflation happens. Basically, the money supply is controlled and fixed by the central bank. Central bank uses the expansionary monetary policy when recessions occur. Central bank will lower the reserve ratio or lower the discount rate or increase the reserve auction in order to increase the excess reserves for the commercial banks. Thus, commercial banks will have more excess reserves make loan to the customer. In addition, this action will lead to the federal fund rate decrease. Even increase the money supply in the public, thus the interest rate fall linkage to the investment spending increase. Therefore, the aggregate demand of the country will increase. Ended up, the real GDP of the country will increase which mean that the expansionary monetary policy upward the pressure of the investment spending to improve the economic growth. Conversely, when inflation arises; Central bank would use the restrictive monetary policy to reduce the money supply in the public. Federal sells the bonds to increase the reserve ratio, increase the discount rate or decrease reserve auctions. This policy will cause the excess reserves decrease, thus commercial banks have less amount to loan out for customers. At the same time, the federal funds rate will increase linkage to the money supply falls. After that, the interest rate will raise as a result the investment spending decrease. At the end, the aggregate demand decrease and the inflation decline. In conclusion, there is a directly relationship between money supply and gold can exist in either case. How could be say that? As mentioned earlier, increase the money supply will boost the economic growth because the interest rate fall stimulate the many investors more willing to do the investment including in gold investment. Nevertheless, as excess money enters the system and the economy remains stagnant, investors will seek for the investment is less risky in order to protect their wealth such gold. According the World Gold Council’s report, there is evidence that money supply growth has an impact on future gold performance.

4There is some information about the determinant of gold price given by Mr. Zoher Doctor. He is a financial Planner. According to Mr.Zoher, the total gold supply to the market in each period from extraction is directly correlation with the lagged gold price. However, there is an inversely relationship between the movement of Dollar with the price of gold. All the determinant of price of gold should be seriously consider when the investors need to do some predict in the gold price.

The table above show that determinants of price of gold. The gold of supply occupies the higher percentage influence the price of gold with 50%. The US dollar is second largest factor follow by the gold supply impact on the gold price. It is because the returns on the gold are subject to the movements of international gold price and US dollar foreign exchange.

Determinants of the price of gold in terms of the Short-run and Long-run

Here are some analysis pertaining to the price of gold in the long run period. [5] According to the Eric J.Levin and Roert E. Wright, there are three posibles results to identical the determinant of gold price in the long run. First, the relationship between price of gold and the US price level is belong to the long term status. Second, the movement of price of gold and the US price level are move together in a statistically important long run relationship. It mean that the increase of US price level with 1 percent , the price of gold will follow to increase with 1 percent. In addition, it exhibit the gold is a long-term hedge against inflation. Third, long term relationship could be triggered from a wake of a shock., there is a slow revrsion back toward it. Based on the reseach from Eric J.Levin andRoert E.Wright, the estimate of error correction term is -0.019, which implies that each month’s error is about 2 per cent smaller than the previous month. In effect, in the aftermath of a shock, it typcaly takes around five year to eliminate two-thirds of the deviation from the long-term relationship between the price of gold and the US price level.

However, the price of gold and US inflation are directly correlation ship to each other in the short-run. Any movement of the price of gold will be directly affected by the any fluctuation in US inflation, US inflation volatility and credit risk. Conversely, any modify in the price of gold and the changes in the US dollar trade-weighted exchange rate and the gold lease rate are inversely relationship.

Gold would become as the inflation hedge. The reason is if the dollar deprecation will reduce the gold price to the outsider the US, which will increase their demand for gold and thus increase the dollar price of gold or if dollar depreciation will rose US inflation.

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