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Climate Change And Its Impact On Sri Lanka Commerce Essay

3. It is shown that climate variability is the mainly effecting key factor on the annual yield variability of tea industry. Hence, climate change in Sri Lanka is the vital factor for direct and indirect impacts on tea production. It was found that increase the temperature and changes in rainfall pattern in order to increase the length of dry and wet seasons per year are two key factors on the variability of tea production in the principal tea growing regions. This paper predicts future yields in tea production for Sri Lanka using various irrigation methods under different climate scenarios, farmer’s awareness program of climate change and possible Change land use patterns which can be used for lands in landslide and flood area. Further, develop the drought resistant tea varieties (Genetically modified plant) and make farmers aware of climate change in Sri Lanka.

CHAPTER II

METHODOLOGY

AIM

1. The aim of this paper is to convince the reader and to give an idea about Sri Lankan tea plantation history of Ceylon tea plantation, its importance to citizens and climate changes in Sri Lankan region with educating the problems faced by present day Sri Lankan tea industry due to climate changes while addressing the actions can made to increase the production and quality of Sri Lankan Tea industry while minimizing the problems related to climate changes in Sri Lanka.

STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Tea Industry has been a major source of income of this country for decades after colonial regimes. Sri Lanka is one of the countries producing quality Tea with natural flavour in it. But, climate change in the world due to various reasons is a natural phenomenon which we can not control. Although Sri Lanka has historically had a climate conducive to the growth of tea, significant climate changes have had an adverse impact on the tea plantations industry in order to degrade the quality and productivity.

Therefore the aim of this research project is to identify the impacts that lead to degrade the quality and productivity in Sri Lankan Tea industry due to climate change and to find solutions to overcome the problems.

THE RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

It is hypothesized that monsoon rainfall variation and increasing temperature in tea growing regions to be degraded the quality and productivity of Sri Lankan Tea industry in order to effected national economy of Sri Lanka.

SCOPE OF THE STUDY

5. The scope of the study covers an assessment of the future impacts of climate change such as extreme rainfall and increase temperature for production of Tea in Sri Lanka and new implementations that are applicable in preventive remedies as well as an analysis of their effectiveness. The paper will focus on identifying the weaknesses of the existing methods in order to logically increase production.

METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION

6. The required data for the research will be drawn from the following sources;

a. Primary source. Will include information collected by interviewing persons who are working in government and private sector that have a role or involvement in the meteorology, production of Sri Lankan tea industry, large scale Tea exporters as well as obtaining feed back and their views from experts on the root cause of the problem.

b. Secondary source. Information will be gathered from relevant books, journals, treatise as well as internet.

STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER

7. The paper will be structured as follows,

a. Chapter I. The first chapter will contain the introduction to the

paper.

b. Chapter II. The second chapter will contain the Methodology of the study and will comprise of the following.

(1) Aim

(2) Statement of the Problem

(3) Research hypothesis

(4) Scope of the study

(5) Method of data collection

(6) Structure of the paper

c. Chapter III. The third chapter will introduce the background information that will need about the subject area, so that they will be better able to understand the findings of research.The chapter will be sub-divided as follows,

(1) History of Ceylon tea

(2) Export performance

(3) Roll of Tea in economy of Sri Lanka

(4) What is climate change?

(5) Global Climate change

(6) Reasons behind the climate change

(7) Vulnerability of South Asia for climate change

(8) Climate in Sri Lanka

d. Chapter IV. The fourth chapter will examine the data collected and the chapter will be sub-divided as follows,

(1) Introduction

(2) Monsoon Rainfall variability

(3) Temperature change

(4) Flood and Landslide

(5) Data related to Tea industry

e. Chapter V. The fifth chapter will examine the reality of the problem by analysing data which was collected and assess the infectiveness of the existing methods that can be implemented to provide an effective solution to the problems. The chapter will be sub-divided as follows

(1) The changes in climate parameters and its influence on tea industry in Sri Lanka

(2) Impacts due to change on rainfall regime

(3) Impact due to increased ambient temperature

(4) Impact due to other reasons

a. Drought damage

b. Flood and Land slide

(5) Possible response strategies to minimize the impacts of climate variability on tea industry

f. Chapter VI The sixth chapter will conclude the paper with the recommendations.

CHAPTER III

CLIMATE CHANGE AND TEA INDUSTRY IN SRI LANKA

THE STORY OF CEYLON TEA

1. The tea plant “Camellia Senses” is a originated variety which was cultivated between the region of India and China. The coffee was main crop produced on the island of Ceylon, until the 1860. Then in the year 1869 the downfall of the coffee cultivation started when the cultivation was plagued with ‘coffee-rust fungus’. This fungus destroyed almost all cultivation, hence plantation owners were compelled to diversified into other crops in order to avoid the total ruin. The owners of ‘Loolecondera Estate’ pioneered the tea cultivation. They were in tea business since late 1850s. In the year 1867 a Scottish nationalist James Tayor appointed to be in charge of the first 19 acres of tea cultivation in Sri Lanka.

2. Taylor with his dedication and commitment gave a spring start to the tea business. By 1872 he developed a fully equipped factory. In the year 1873 his efforts were rewarded at the London auction. In that year Taylor earned a recorded profit by forwarded the best tea from Ceylon at the London auction.

Figure 3.1 Pioneer in Ceylon tea plantation

3. Till the year 1971 more than 80 percent of the island’s tea estates were owned and managed by British companies. Then, Sri Lankan government introduced the Land Reform Act. This act empowered the state to control majority of the plantations leaving about only one-third of the tea plantations in private hands. With an aim of improving the efficacy of management a restructuring program has been initiated since 1990. The restructuring program involves the private sector companies (both Sri Lankan and foreign) as managing agents of the state-owned plantations.

4. Depending on the elevation of the land of tea plantations, Sri Lankan tea is divided into two categories, high grown and low grown tea. Tea estates were concentrated in the mid elevations (600-1,200 meters) and higher elevations (1,200 meters and above) during the initial years of tea plantation. Then gradually tea growing was expanded to low elevations (600 meters and below). The distribution of tea plantation in Sri Lanka is mainly concentrated in the Central hills, Sabaragamuwa, Uva, Southern districts of Galle and Matara and in some areas of the south-western slopes of the island as shown in figure 3.2

Figure 3.2 Distribution of Tea land in Sri Lanka [1] 

Sector

Land area

(hectares)

Tea

188,971

Rubber

162,098

Coconuts

442,288

Paddy

915,000

Sugar cane

24,862

Fruit and vegetables

213,952

Other field crops

173,288

Table 3.1 Land area under agriculture in Sri Lanka in year 2000 [2] 

EXPORT PERFORMANCE

5. Agricultural exports contribute 19 % in total export earnings. Agricultural exports grew by 10% in 2004 reflecting the higher performance of the three major crops. Tea was benefited by higher prices. Tea prices increased by 7 % to US dollars 2.46 per Kg in 2004 : mainly due to an increased demand for low grown tea from the Middle- East, Russia and other former Soviet Block countries.

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Sri Lanka

20.90 %

21.20 %

20.80 %

20.20 %

21.20 %

Kenya

19.20 %

16.30 %

18.60 %

18.70 %

19.50 %

China

15.80 %

17.70 %

18.00 %

17.70 %

18.80 %

India

15.00 %

15.40 %

12.90 %

13.80 %

12.00 %

Indonesia

7.80 %

7.90 %

7.20 %

7.00 %

6.50 %

Argentina

4.10 %

3.70 %

4.10 %

4.00 %

4.20 %

Malawi

3.40 %

2.90 %

3.00 %

2.80 %

2.90 %

Uganda

1.80 %

2.00 %

2.20 %

2.20 %

2.50 %

Table 3.3 World percentage Share of Tea Exports [3] 

Figure 3.3 World exports of tea

ROLE OF TEA IN SRI LANKAN ECONOMY

6. As statistics suggests (Vide Table 3.3) Sri Lanka is among the largest Tea exporting countries. In 1996 the tea sector contributed 15 per cent of total export value while exportation of manufactured garments has emerged as the leading single export product in Sri Lanka. A comparison of earnings through export by other products in the year 2008 has been depicted in the table below (table 3.4).

Sector

Value in Rs. million

Total exports

(%)

Tea

426

15.05

Rubber

71

2.50

Coconut

75

2.66

Other export crops

86

3.04

Fisheries products

51

1.80

Gems and jewellery

193

6.85

Textile and garments

1,310

46.44

Manufactures

503

17.81

Petroleum products

72

2.54

Re-exports

16

0.57

Others

21

0.73

Total exports

2,822

100.00

Table 3.4 Total export earnings in Sri Lanka in 2008 [4] 

Figure 3.4 Percentage of world exports earning of tea in 2009

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

7. The climate change means the gradual change in weather according to a pattern over a long period of time, and then it can be resulted in the change of climate for that particular area. Natural changes in climate usually occur over such long periods of time that they are often not noticed within several human lifetimes. This change that occur slowly and gradually enables the plants, animals, and microorganisms on earth to evolve and adapt to the new climatic conditions, This new temperatures, new rainfalls and precipitation patterns are some of the salient factors for the natural selection of various crops.

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

8. Contrasting to above rapidly changes of climate imposes a real threat for the survival of various crops. For example, over the past 130 years from 1861 to 1991( shown in figure 4.2) the global temperature has risen from 0.6 to 1.2 oF (0.3 to 0.7 oC). The rapid increasing of the curve from 1911 onwards suggests that changes in mean global temperature at greater rates over time. Further, mean global temperature will increases in future at a rate of 0.4 oF (0.2 oC) by each decade.

9. However, in early years increment of atmospheric temperature can be deemed as less significant as the increments of atmospheric temperature occurred over a long periods of time. The slower rate of climate change gave ample time to the plants and animals to get adjusted to the new climate. The current rates of temperature change are much faster than those of Earth's past. Hence plants, animals, and microorganisms may not have enough time to be adapted to the suddenly created new climate.

Figure 3.5 Global Temperature Changes (1880 – 2000) [5] 

REASON BEHIND THE CLIMATE CHANGE

10. There are many factors responsible for climate change. Some of the factors cannot be controlled while others are in the domain of mans control. The factors such as variations in solar radiation, deviations in the Earth's orbit, mountain-building and continental drift are the natural factors of temperature hikes. However, changes in greenhouse gas concentrations can be controlled by controlling some of humans’ activities.

a. Plate tectonics

The motion of tectonic plates over the millions of years re-configures global land, ocean areas and generates topography. The position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore influences patterns of ocean circulation. The locations of the seas are important in controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe, and therefore, in determining global climate.

b. Solar output

The major source which energy input to the Earth is predominant by sun. Therefore, both long- and short-term variations in solar intensity are tends to affect global climate.

c. Orbital variations

Slight variations in Earth's orbit lead to large scale climatic changes. Distribution of sunlight that reach the Earth's surface is directly relates with the earth’s orbit. There are three types of orbital variations such as variations in Earth's eccentricity, changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis of rotation, and precession of Earth's axis. When these factors influencing the earth climate combined together, it produces a large impact on climate.

d. Volcanism

Volcanism is a process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to its surface. Volcanic eruptions, geysers, and hot springs, are examples of volcanic processes which release gases and/or particles into the atmosphere.

e. Ocean variability

The ocean is playing a significant role in the climate change. On longer time scales, ocean processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slow and extremely deep movement of water, and the long-term redistribution of heat in the world's oceans.

f. Human influences

Some human activities are directly influencing the changes in the environment. According to the scholars there are substantiated evidences to prove that human activity is the cause for rapid increase in average global temperatures over the past several decades.

Increments in atmospheric CO2 level can be attributed human activities such as maga emissions from fossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere) and cement manufacture. Other factors such as land use, ozone depletion, animal agriculture and deforestation are also concern in the roles humans play - both separately and in conjunction with other factors - in affecting climate, microclimate, and measures of climate variables.

Figure 3.6 Increases in Atmospheric CO2 Levels [6] 

VULNERABILITY OF SOUTH ASIA FOR CLIMATE CHANGE

11. High levels of poverty and population density has made South Asia especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The monsoons and their associated droughts and floods are expected to become more intense with climate change.

12. South Asia’s population is likely to exceed 2.2 billion from the current level of 1.5 billion by 2050. About 75% of South Asians are poor and account for about 70% of people lives in rural areas. About 60% of the rural poor people depend on agriculture and contributes only 22% of regional GDP. A large concentration of poverty, high population densities and climate variability have all combined to make South Asia highly sensitive to the consequences of climate change.

Figure 3.7 South Asia population projections [7] 

CLIMATE IN SRI LANKA

Monsoons

13. Sri Lanka is influenced by the four distinct season’s monsoons. North-east monsoon brings rain in the northern and eastern regions in December and February and south-west monsoon get rain from May to September in the western, southern and central regions of the island. In south-west monsoon some of the windward slopes receive up to 250 centimeters of rain per month, but the leeward slopes in the northeast and east receive little rain. The northeastern slopes of the mountains may be inundated with up to 125 centimeters of rain during North-east monsoon.

Figure 3.8 Four seasonal rainfall in Sri Lanka [8] 

14. The inter-monsoonal months are occurs in October and November and periodic squalls, sometimes tropical cyclones bring overcast skies. Another inter-monsoonal period occurs from March until mid-May, with light, variable winds and evening thundershowers.

Average temperature

15. Sri Lanka is positioned between 5 and 10 north latitude endows the country with a warm climate, moderated by ocean winds and considerable moisture.The average yearly temperature in Sri Lanka from 28 to 32oC. The mean low temperature is 16ºC in Nuwara - Eliya on Central Highlands and high of 32oC in Trincomalee on the northeast coast. The coastal areas are cooled by sea breezes. Day and night temperatures may vary by 4 to 7 oC.

 

Average Annual Max Temperature

Average Annual

Temperature

Average Annual Min

Temperature

 

Figure 3.9 Average temperatures in Sri Lanka [9] 

CHAPTER IV

DATA ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN SRI LANKA AND TEA INDUSTRY

INTRODUCTION

Sri Lanka is an island over the area of 65,525 Sq. km. It located between 6 - 10 of north latitude and between 80 - 82 of east longitude. It has maximum length of 432 km (Devundara to Point Peduru) and maximum width 224 km (Colombo - Sangamankanda). Three zones can be divided by its distinguished elevation such as central highland, plains, and the coastal belt.

Change of climate is being accelerated in an alarming rate consequent to the human activities such as fossil fuel burnings, change of land use practices, emission of industrial gases etc. The global warming has made more significant by the enhanced greenhouse effect and it has contributed to increase the surface temperature of the earth averaging to 33 oC. Atmospheric concentration of CO2 has rapidly being increased from 280 ppm in industrial aera to 365 ppm at present.

MONSOON RAINFALL VARIABILITY

Variability of Northeast monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka has been increased from 1931 – 1960 and 1961-1990 periods; variability of Southwest monsoon rainfall has been decreased during 1961-1990 compared to 1931-1960. But, annual average of rainfall over Sri Lanka has been increased from 234 to 263 mm during the years of 1931 to 1960 with the standard deviation of ??????? .When 1961 to 1990 period compared, it has decreased 7% by an amount of 144 mm. However, high variability of annual rainfall has reported at Baticaloa, Kurunegala, and Rathnapura meteorological stations in the recent past when compared to other meteorological stations.

Season

CV (1931-60) %

CV (1961-90) %

First inter-monsoon

23

27

Southwest monsoon

21

16

Second inter-monsoon

22

23

Northeast monsoon

31

42

Year

11

14

Table 4.1 Variability of all Sri Lanka rainfall during the period of 1931-60 and 1961-90 [10] 

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dce

2001

190.6

56.5

3.3

153.2

138.5

109.4

260.0

36.0

257.0

121.3

168.1

187.1

2002

48.6

31.9

90.0

200.8

106.0

120.5

109.2

148.9

42.5

252.0

174.3

192.7

2003

179.5

62.1

145.1

148.1

127.6

71.1

121.8

84.2

58.6

122.9

233.3

19.5

2004

51.3

26.5

54.6

165.8

174.1

178.9

74.6

73.5

135.1

273.1

221.0

312.6

2005

54.8

26.7

53.7

104.2

117.6

106.9

160.4

60.4

156.6

140.3

291.2

74.3

2006

259.2

75.3

153.9

180.0

248.7

168.1

217.8

101.8

145.6

304.4

458.8

241.7

2007

225.7

23.4

55.7

158.0

80.3

226.5

99.4

64.6

216.4

223.9

138.7

162.1

2008

153.8

103.3

306.5

183.0

61.5

36.1

134.3

75.0

59.7

187.4

154.7

131.7

2009

38.4

4.4

147.9

62.1

258.0

97.8

93.7

85.6

121.0

201.8

243.8

285.4

2010

67.7

19.4

134.4

198.5

207.3

283.6

188.0

175.3

Table 4.2 Average Rainfall (mm) in Nuwara Eliya during period of 2001 - 2010 [11] 

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dce

2001

359.4

174.5

226.0

356.7

363.1

262.5

271.7

58.0

335.1

365.6

486.6

158.9

2002

70.2

125.2

142.0

276.0

418.9

351.0

180.0

190.3

172.2

609.1

344.5

322.9

2003

91.0

71.7

284.4

444.7

718.3

433.4

425.9

355.1

454.3

309.9

340.9

91.6

2004

89.3

97.9

222.5

443.9

522.5

275.0

356.3

166.1

430.8

671.1

244.3

221.9

2005

52.2

92.8

284.1

302.9

226.5

313.7

262.4

243.3

309.3

609.8

503.3

204.5

2006

222.7

201.3

270.7

275.6

416.9

427.5

186.0

403.4

258.3

560.9

358.6

153.7

2007

91.6

9.0

84.8

460.0

208.5

320.9

245.2

443.0

409.2

509.0

178.3

145.0

2008

51.4

177.8

286.4

650.8

503.0

387.3

557.0

214.9

194.6

400.9

312.7

146.7

2009

22.2

57.8

290.1

188.5

414.2

592.7

203.8

419.5

379.2

330.0

280.7

215.4

2010

233.6

111.9

157.5

438.3

658.5

451.5

367.4

385.5

310.3

Table 4.3 Average Rainfall (mm) in Rathnapura during period of 2001 – 2010 [12] 

TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Annual mean temperature has shown a significant rising trends during the recent few decades in Sri Lanka. The rate of increase of mean temperature is 0.016 oC per year for the period of 1961-1990. Annual mean maximum temperatures have increased in almost all stations with the rate of about 0.021 oC per year. Annual mean minimum temperatures also have increased with higher gradients with the rate of about 0.02 oC per year. It is evident that the average annual surface temperature has increased across the country.

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dce

2001

15.6

15.7

16.8

17.1

17.8

16.1

16.0

15.9

16.2

16.1

15.7

15.1

2002

15.3

15.8

17.0

17.3

17.5

16.5

16.0

15.9

16.3

16.4

16.3

15.7

2003

15.3

16.0

16.6

17.2

17.6

17.3I

16.6I

16.1

16.5

16.5I

16.4

15.3

2004

15.8

15.8

17.1

17.5

16.6

15.8

15.8

16.3

16.1

16.2

16.2

15.8

2005

15.8

16.4

17.0

17.8

17.7

16.6

16.0

16.5

15.9

16.1

16.2

15.0

2006

15.1

15.8

16.3

16.5

16.8

16.8

15.7

16.2

16.3

16.4

16.5

15.3

2007

14.9

15.1

16.5

17.1

17.7

16.8

16.3

16.4

16.1

15.8

15.9

15.3

2008

15.4

15.4

16.0

17.1

17.5

16.5

16.0

16.6

16.5

16.2

16.1

15.1

2009

14.4

14.9

16.5

16.6

16.3

15.8

15.4

16.5

16.3

16.1

16.0

16.3

2010

15.6

17.0

17.3

17.8

17.9

16.8

16.1

16.3

Table 4.4 Average Temperature (oC) in Nuwara Eliya during period of 2001 - 2010 [13] 

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dce

2001

26.7

27.2

28.7

28.3

28.2

27.6

27.1

27.6

27.7

27.4

27.2

27.1

2002

27.2

28.1

28.7

28.5

27.9

27.7

27.3

27.4

28.1

27.1

27.4

26.7

2003

27.1

28.3

28.2

28.5

28.1

27.5

27.1

27.3

26.9

27.1

26.8

27.3

2004

28.1

28.1

28.4

28.3

27.4

27.2

26.8

27.1

26.6

26.8

27.0

26.6

2005

27.3

28.0

28.7

28.3

28.5

27.5

27.2

27.5

27.0

27.0

26.6

26.7

2006

26.6

27.8

27.9

28.0

27.4

27.2

27.1

26.7

27.1

27.3

27.2

26.6

2007

26.6

28.3

28.8

28.2

28.3

27.5

27.2

27.1

27.0

26.5

27.3

26.6

2008

26.7

27.5

27.5

27.3

27.4

26.7

26.5

26.8

27.2

27.3

26.9

27.2

2009

27.2

28.0

28.2

28.5

28.0

26.9

27.3

27.0

26.9

27.6

26.7

27.0

2010

27.1

28.2

29.2

28.6

27.9

27.4

27.1

27.1

27.2

Table 4.5 Average Temperature (oC) in Rathnapura during period of 2001 - 2010 [14] 

FLOODS AND LAND SLIDE

Floods are caused by heavy down pour of rainwater particularly in all seasons, monsoons and inter monsoons. A flood happens an area of land is covered with water, when a river overflows. Some floods develop slowly, sometimes over a period of days. But, flash floods can develop quickly, sometimes in just a few minutes and it does often have very dangerous when a dam breaks.

District

Affected Families

Deaths

Houses destroyed

Houses partially damaged

N’Elliya

132

1

286

0

Kulatara

21,550

8

7,658

35

Galle

36,703

17

1,273

560

Matara

68,075

80

8,850

17,822

Ratnapura

47,756

137

5,726

6,902

Table 4.6 Flood areas in Sri Lanka [15] 

DATA RELATED TO TEA INDUSTRY

6. The export trade in Sri Lanka has been given the highest priority since the late 1970s with the introduction of export oriented manufacturing and trading activities for achieving economic prosperity in the country. During the last two decades, Sri Lanka has experienced a steady expansion in the sector which has resulted in a significant increase in export and import trade.

Year

Tea Production Kg mn

1996

245.96

1997

258.42

1998

276.86

1999

280.05

2000

283.76

2001

305.84

2002

295.09

2003

310.03

2004

303.22

2005

308.10

2006

310.8

2007

304.6

2008

318.4

Table 4.7 Sri Lanka Tea-Production 1996 - 2008 (Million Kilograms) [16] 

Year

High Grown

(ha.)

Med. Grown

(ha.)

Low Grown

(ha.)

Total (ha.)

1990

73,138

83,223

65,397

221,758

1991

73,331

82,467

65,893

221,691

1992

74,141

85,510

62,185

221,836

1994

51,443

56,155

79,711

187,309

1995

51,443

56,155

79,711

187,309

1996

52,272

56,863

79,836

188,971

1997

51,444

58,155

79,711

189,310

1998

51,444

58,155

79,711

189,310

1999

51,444

58,155

79,711

189,310

2000

52,272

56,863

79,836

188,971

2001

52,272

56,863

79,836

188,971

2002

52,272

56,863

79,836

188,971

2003

40,302

69,529

100,790

210,621

2004

40,302

69,529

100,790

210,621

2005

41,137

71,018

109,814

221,969

2006

41,137

71,018

109,814

221,969

2007

41,137

71,018

109,814

221,969

2008

41,137

71,018

109,814

221,969

2009

41,137

71,018

109,814

221,969

Table 3.2 Registered Tea grown area (1990 – 2009) [17] 

CHAPTER V

THE CHANGES IN CLIMATE PARAMETERS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON

TEA INDUSTRY IN SRI LANKA

THE CHANGES IN CLIMATE PARAMETERS AND ITS INFLUENCE ON

TEA INDUSTRY IN SRI LANKA

The technological advances made on improved crop management, irrigation, plant protection and fertilization, weather and climate are still key factors in tea productivity in Sri Lanka. Farming systems and agronomic practices in most agricultural regions of Sri Lanka have evolved in close harmony with the prevailing climatic conditions of respective climatic regions of the island. Climate of the island has changed such as correct amount of rainfall does not come at the correct time of the growing seasons, variability of both south-west and

North-east monsoon rains and rains of convectional origin have increased significantly during recent decades. Furthermore, increasing ambient temperature is also inflicting several direct and indirect negative impacts on the tea productivity.

The impact of climate change on any tea growing region depends how and what intensity the rainfall regime in a given area is variable along with the increasing environmental temperature of the same area.

IMPACTS DUE TO CHANGES ON RAINFALL REGIME

Considering above collected data, it is a well known fact that annual rainfall in Sri Lanka has shown a neither significant increasing nor decreasing trend except a few locations. However, variability of seasonal rainfall has increased during recent decades especially with respect to the northeast monsoon. But, in some case occurred extreme rainfall due to climate change, soil erode, floods and land slide, wash away fertilizer and other chemicals has become a common features of the of Sri Lanka and under such situations, crops losses in terms of quantitatively and qualitatively are inevitable.

Given the physical conditions of most of the great soil groups that are being used for tea industrial activities in Sri Lanka, even a small negative departure of expected rainfall is likely to several cause, it will be so detrimental to the intensive production systems.

IMPACTS DUE TO INCREASED AMBIENT TEMPERATURE

Being a tropical island with uniformly high temperature regime, most of the cultivated crops in Sri Lanka operate at a near maximum of the optimum temperature range of respective crops. Thus, quality and production of crop are damages due to high temperature in Sri Lankan tea industry under a changing climate. It is well established fact that high temperature injuries in tea industry such as drought damage, soil moisture depletion, premature desiccation of crop, reduce water for irrigation, water precipitation, if the plant is exposed to an ambient temperature that exceeds 35 oC.

Recent observations of average Temperature (oC) in Nuwara Elliya and Rathnapura area during period of 2001 - 2010 (Table 4 and 5) have confirmed that frequency of such temperature events has increased significantly in both Dry and Intermediate zones. Decreased diurnal temperature regime at almost all locations of the country, especially due to the increasing nighttime minimum temperature, is likely to cause negative impacts on increased insect damages and infestation by all kind of pathogens such as bacteria, virus and fungi, quality and production of the tea leave, in the country.

IMPACTS DUE TO OTHER RESONS

Droughts Damage

When there is not enough water to support agricultural, human or environmental water needs, call a drought period. A drought can be caused by drying or anything that reduces the amount of water available. The effects of drought vary greatly depending on agricultural, urban and environmental water needs. The droughts in Sri Lanka are caused by a number of reasons like failure of monsoons and increasing the temperature.

Flood and Land slide

Extreme amount of positive rainfall is likely to be caused of flood and land slide. It may occurs severe damages to existing irrigation infrastructures and thus, limiting the water availability for crop production of tea industry that are under irrigation. Even though storing water prolonger time in tea growing area due to flood condition, tea crop tends to wrack and low productivity.

THE IMPACT OF FUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TEA INDUSTRY

Future Scenarios of Rainfall

Variability of rainfall would be the key factor of determining the change of climate. It can be predicted that more frequent and intense changes can occur. In addition, it has been predicted that wet areas will get more rain and subsequently dry areas will be more drier than the past due to the predicted climate change. According to the results obtained, it can be fathomed that the southwest monsoon rainfall, which usually confines to the western and south-western parts of the island and the northeast monsoon rainfall that occur over the eastern and northern areas will be significantly increased particularly in the years 2025.

Future Scenarios of Temperature

The global mean temperature is projected to be risen in the range of 1.4 – 5.8 oC by the year 2100 under the different emission scenarios and it is revealed that the mean temperature during the northeast monsoon and southwest seasons is projected to increase about 2.9 oC and 2.5 oC respectively by the year 2100.

POSSIBLE RESPONSE STRATEGIES TO MINIMIZE THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON TEA INDUSTRY

Being a developing country, the most appropriate response strategy for climate change is adaptation activities rather than mitigation exercises or follows combination of both of them as long as it success goals. But, given the situation of local environment, the most practical and sustainable response strategy available for tea industry is the adaptation. The following list that may be adapted by different aspect to minimize the vulnerability to climate change in tea growing area.

Suggested Adaptation Technical Strategies

Change irrigation method

Promote micro-irrigation (drip, sprinkler etc.)

Rehabilitation of minor tanks and irrigation canal network

Re-use of drainage water, if suitable

intensive irrigation management practices wherever possible

Make farmers aware of climate change

promote farmers on soil and moisture conservation practices

Promote to soil test based fertilizer application

promote to improve the water use and conveyance efficiency

Change land use pattern in land slide area

Use genetically modified Plant

Develop drought resistant tea varieties

Develop high temperature resistance tea varieties

Develop pest and disease resistance tea varieties

Suggested Adaptation Policy Strategies

Implementation of the Soil Conservation Act

Strict enforcement of National Environmental Act and other related ordinances

Adoption of proper national land use policy

Easy credit schemes

Soil and moisture conservation

Micro-irrigation

High quality Plants

Large scale drainage improvement projects

Effective use of long range weather forecasting for agricultural planning

Introduce effective marketing strategy

Introduce government policy on every aspect of the economy lasting for a few decades ahead.

However, some of these proposed strategies are not new to our farming community and they are already in practice. But, there is a timely need of implementing them in a coordinated and systematic manner and sustainable way to address the climatic change issues. There may also be re-evaluated the existing methodologies and introduce new concepts applicable to tea industry by responsible implementing agency with possible precautions to avoid cost effect.

CHAPTER VI

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, it is reveled that the variability of southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon rainfall will increase in the future. Rainfall change is predicted to be higher during the southwest monsoon season than the northeast monsoon season. Much higher increments have been noticed on the windward side of the central hills in each monsoon and less increments have been noticed on the leeward side. Therefore, there is a strong possibility of having water scarcity in the tea growing regions where the rainfall is less, especially on the leeward side of the central hills and adjoin areas in each monsoon. Water scarcity will generate auxiliary problems due to the population growth and increasing demand for water in the future. This situation may be aggravated as the mean temperatures are also has been projected to be increased. Apart from the direct impact of increased variability of rainfall and rise of ambient temperature, indirect effects of increased rainfall intensities are of special significance in terms of land degradation which has a significant bearing on the crop production in Sri Lanka. But, it is too early to generalize that such threats would not occur in the future.

The cost of your healthy and comforting cup of tea is only just if you can allow consuming quality of the tea. So, if you resolve to seek really high quality cup of tea with all the effort and skill that has been put into them and it will be a fantastic product.

RECOMMENDATIONS

3. The variability of rainfalls and increasing temperature that could seriously be affected especially in the tea industry and therefore some adaptation measures which was discussed above need to be taken into consideration in order to cope with the anticipated climate change.

4. Developing the Sri Lankan tea industry such as quality tea, owned brands to local and overseas markets with a view to ensuring the long term sustainability of the tea industry is very essential. The development of Sri Lankan tea industry to withstand on climate change will also be contribute towards creating greater stability and value for Sri Lankan companies engaged in export. The strategy poses a challenge to Sri Lankan firms and is touch to achieve, but the benefits are substantial particularly in the long run. However, before it is too late the administration should support such an endeavour in order to create further value to the industry, to improve the economy of Sri Lanka.

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